Edmonton Oilers

Dipping into the Goaltending Numbers

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One of the most important acquisitions this off season has been netminder Cam Talbot who was acquired for a package of draft picks in June. There was a lot of chatter among Oiler fans, probably since last December when the team went into a free-fall, speculating who the next goalie would be. Both Ben Scrivens and Victor Fasth faltered, forcing the Oilers to make a move to improve a critical part of the roster.

After ten games this season, I think most can agree that Talbot, along with Anders Nilsson, have given the Oilers stability between the pipes. The defence in front of them has struggled mightily, a trend that has continued from previous seasons, but Talbot has made some very timely saves, giving the team a chance to at least stay in hockey games.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Limiting Those High Danger Chances

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Todd McLellan was pretty furious following the game against the Capitals on Friday night, and for good reason. The club was outclassed by a better team at home, making far too many mistakes in the neutral zone and defensive end. The Oilers allowed 13 high danger scoring chances at even-strength, with all four even-strength goals against coming from that area.  That’s almost double the average number of shots that come from the high danger area in a game (thanks to rickithebear for that tidbit).

For reference, high danger scoring chances are the ones taken from the slot and low slot, as demonstrated below (Source: War on Ice).

Source: War on Ice

You have to understand why McLellan may have been a little annoyed after the game and at the media availability on Saturday (Source: 630 CHED). Fact is, he’s had a history of getting a higher proportion of high danger chances in games and ensuring that the opposition is limited. He regularly finished in the top five league-wide when it came to the overall quanity of high danger shots and often had a high proportion of those shots. Here’s how he did compared to the rest of the league and, as always, I included Edmonton for fun.

Now it’s early in McLellan’s tenure as Oilers coach, but here’s a game-by-game look at the count of high danger scoring chances, for and against, at even-strength.

Why might the Oilers be struggling again? A lot of the poor defensive coverage, which was really exposed against Washington, comes down to the personnel on the roster. Oscar Klefbom and Justin Schultz were dreadful in that game, but so too were some of the forwards who didn’t do enough to prevent passes getting into the slot area. The Capitals consistently drew the Oilers in, or moved them out of position with strategic passing, creating numerous lanes to send the puck to the net.

If the Oilers intend on becoming an elite team, they need to employ qualified NHL players who can read and react to plays more efficiently. What they have right now is ot good enough. And until they bring in experience and skill to the back-end, this will be another development year.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Talking Oilers-Kings and Defence Pairings on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the loss against the Kings and what the defence pairings might be like with Schultz potentially out of the lineup.

Couple notes:

  • The Oilers did a nice job reducing the number of high danger scoring chances against the Kings last night. Definitely an improvement from the previous game against Washington. My most recent post over at The Copper & Blue looks at McLellan’s history and how the Oilers have done so far in terms of high danger chances.
  • I’m a huge fan of Nurse, but I’d rather see him stew a little longer in Bakersfield instead of play limited minutes in Edmonton. Bring him up at some point, but I think it’d be wiser to call up Nikitin or Musil if they do in fact call up a defenceman. Both can slide into that right side paired with Klefbom, leaving Sekera with Fayne, and Gryba with Davidson. Not an ideal roster of defencemen, but I think we’ll have to live with it. I don’t think there’s going to be any acquisitions any time soon. Hope I’m wrong.
  • Here’s what I wrote on Musil this past off-season. He’s in the last year of his contract becoming an RFA. Now might be a good time to evaluate his performance at the NHL level.
  • The Oilers play a good team in Minnesota and an excellent team in Montreal this week, before hosting the Flames on HNIC. Minnesota is one of those middle of the pack clubs that the Oilers have to keep up with, but they’ll be in tough against a well-balanced roster. That second line of Koivu-Neidereitter-Zucker has been outshooting opponents regularly, so my guess is they’ll be matched with Lander’s line (which has been getting chewed up a little too often.

Might need to play this song a few times to get in a better mood now.

McLellan and Volume Shooting

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Oilers head coach Todd McLellan made an interesting comment recently about putting shots on net, emphasizing volume shooting.

“Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.”  –

Source

I can’t say I was surprised when he dismissed Corsi and Fenwick. He’s likely aware that those are good proxies for possession, but isn’t likely to disclose how much or how often he uses those types of metrics. But when he mentioned volume shooting, I wanted to see just how much shooting his team did when he was in San Jose and what exactly it translated to.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

McDavid Gives Himself Permission

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1297761398683_ORIGINALReally can’t say enough about Connor McDavid. The kid has been very impressive in his first six games, pretty much confirming all of the hype.

His game in Calgary was simply outstanding, as he dominated the opposition, scoring two goals and adding an assist to go along with a CF% of 76.5% at even-strength. He made a lot of smart plays, often while under pressure, and was often carrying the puck and generating scoring chances.

After the game, Todd McLellan had this to say:

That was the best game yet from Connor, He made an impact throughout the night. Had an impact on the score sheet and probably could have had even more of an impact with some of the chances he had. I thought he let himself go and kind of gave himself permission. Sometimes you have to do that to get after it. As a young player you don’t have to give way to the veterans all the time; you’re allowed to go out and take charge. And I thought he did that. (Source: NHL.com)

I had noticed  in the first two games against St. Louis and Nashville how often McDavid would make a pass or look to make a pass rather than shoot. I’d seen enough of his highlights in junior to know that he likes carrying the puck and used his speed regularly to pressure defencemen and create room for himself. But since it’s the NHL and his first time playing against experienced players, it’s understandable that he deferred to his teammates instead. I think a lot of us were relieved to see him carry the puck more in Calgary and really become that driver that could generate chances.

Out of curiosity, I wanted to see if what we saw in Calgary could be verified with the data available at War on Ice. I decided to look at shot attempts and see what percentage of the shot attempts McDavid was on the ice for actually came from his stick. For now, I looked at all situations (even-strength and special teams) to see if anything stood out.

McDavid CF Proportion

Pretty clear jump from the first four games to the one in Calgary for young Connor. He was, early on, paired with Hall, who we know takes a lot of shot attempts himself, so it’s been  a smart move separating the two. It also gives you two drivers on two separate lines, which will be tough for opposing coaches who want to match lines. We’ll let that Vancouver game slide. It was the Oilers third game in four nights, and the entire team got dominated possession wise. I don’t expect McDavid to have that low of a shot attempt proportion often.

Hopefully McDavid can continue with his strong play and start carrying the puck and generating scoring chances on a more consistent basis. This should be a fun season.

Talking Oilers winning streak, goaltending and third pairing defencemen on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide this morning to discuss the back-to-back road wins this weekend, as well as our current assessment of the roster. Also touched on the goaltending (which has been stellar thus far) and what we can expect in the next week with games against Detroit, Washington and LA coming up.

Couple links:

  • I wrote about some of the metrics I’ll be tracking in the first 10 games over at The Copper & Blue.
  • Speeds was on the show earlier. Full audio of his segment is over at SoundCloud.
  • Didn’t get to mention it, but the changes McLellan made on the powerplay are hopefully going to turn things around. Willis has a great post here.
  • Woodguy has a great article up on the Oilers defence. Highly, highly recommend checking it out at Because Oilers.

Passing on Matt Irwin

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Having so many question marks on defence will lead to plenty of discussion every single time a bottom-six defenceman is available on the waiver wire.Frank Corrado caught the attention of Oilers fans last week when theCanucks demoted him to the minors (and eventually snapped up by the Leafs) and we had a similar thing happen this past weekend with a slightly different result.

After two rough games, the Boston Bruins demoted 27-year old defenceman Matt Irwinwho they had signed this off-season to a one year deal worth $800,000, making him available to all 29 teams through waivers. The Oilers again didn’t bite, but this time, neither did the other 28 clubs.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The SuperFan Podcast – Episode 2

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Topics include the Oilers off-season moves, training camp, strengths and weaknesses in the lineup and what my expectations are for the 2015/16 season.

Related Links

The SuperFan Podcast – Episode 1

Goaltending for the 2015-2016 Season  – The SuperFan

Goalies with Potential – The SuperFan

Goalies and Voodoo Magic – The SuperFan

Sharks Under McLellan III – Contributions from Defencemen – The SuperFan

Sharks Under McLellan IV – Systems and Tactics – The SuperFan

Old Man Power – The Copper & Blue

The First 10 Games – The Copper & Blue

Thoughts on the Oilers – 2015/2016 Season – The SuperFan

Thoughts on the Oilers: 2015/2016 Season

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Edmonton Oilers v Detroit Red WingsWe’ve spent close to 11 months speculating about the 2015/16 season, so it’ll be nice to get things started on Thursday. The team was dead in the water by November last season, winning only 6 of 24 games in the first two months. I was feeling optimistc that things would get better last September. But unfortunately, MacTavish failed to provide his coaching staff with a legitimate NHL roster and the rest was history. The goaltending faltered, the defence was still being sorted out (Petry was a healthy scratch, remember that?) and Leon Draisaitl was our second line center.

Next to the addition of Connor McDavid, I think the next significant addition to the organization is the coaching staff. I really have high expectations knowing that Todd McLellan is behind the bench with assistants that he selected. I have full confidence that he’ll be the guy leading the Oilers into the playoffs down the road (and hopefully beyond). There’s definitely a renewed sense of hope and urgency in the city, and hopefully the players can deliver.

Defence

That defence core I just can’t get behind. Sekera and Fayne should be the top pairing and should excel against tough competition. I like the Klefbom signing a lot, but I don’t know if I’m okay with him being paired with Schultz to start the season. Klefbom is great at breaking up plays, but I’d rather a young player be paired with an experienced one. I do want to see Schultz have a great year…always been a fan of the offensive defencemen. But he would be better served being paired with an experienced shut down type. I hope I’m wrong and the two young guys can hold their own. The bottom pairing really needed to be enhanced over the past few weeks and really could have been. Reinhart never stood out to me this training camp, and should be developing in the AHL until he’s 100% ready. I do think he’s being rushed because of what the Oilers traded for him. Gryba, Ference and Davidson are 7th options at best, but will likely be playing a few levels above what they should be playing. In an ideal situation, each line would have a puck mover and a physical, stay-at-home type, similar to what McLellan ran in San Jose, but I guess we’ll have to see how things play out.

Goaltending

I’m good with the current tandem. I just think both Talbot and Nilsson will continue to see high-danger scoring chances more often than other goalies. Despite the popular perception, Talbot did not have elite defencemen in front of him in New York. They were better than the Oilers, but it wasn’t as if Talbot was never tested. It’ll be interesting to see how the existing defence core does and if Chiarelli is willing to make moves right away if need be. Now that the forward core is set, I think we’ll see some movement.

Training Camp

I’ve always suspected it, but I think it’s been confirmed now: training camp isn’t about winning jobs, it’s about keeping them. Players who are brought in as “Group B” types, those that are destined for the AHL, are there to show they haven’t regressed and that the development system is working. There’s nothing wrong with that, as it’s just a good way to sharpen your “Group A” roster. After seeing the low level of competition the Oilers faced in exhibition games, I don’t see how a coaching staff can properly assess their players. I’d much rather see how a player does in 35 regular season games in the AHL than a two-week training camp.

I’m a huge fan of Leon Draisaitl, mainly because he’s a center that has size and skill. Those don’t come around very often, making it critical that they develop at their position in the appropriate environment. I didn’t expect him to make the roster, but I think he showed enough talent and production that the team should not hesitate to call him up when he’s needed. I understand that argument for keeping him in the NHL, but if experienced people like Chiarelli and McLellan say he isn’t quite ready, I’ll take their word for it.

It’s great that Anyon Slepyshev made the team. I’m just not convinced that he’s a long-term solution on wing just yet. I’m always skeptical when guys make the team in training camp as they don’t often pan out, especially for the Oilers. Patrick Thoresen, Lennart Petrell and Anton Lander come to mind. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle the wingers once Jordan Eberle is back. Really hate to say it, but I’m suspecting that Yakupov might become expendable if Slepyshev performs well or if the team wants to bring up a physical player like Iiro Pakarinen.

Bold Predictions

Despite the addition of McDavid and new the coaching staff, I don’t see the Oilers making the playoffs just yet. There are too many question marks on defence and the goaltending is largely unproven. Having said that, I would be thrilled if the Oilers can remain competitive past December and finish 10th in the western conference. That would be a major jump for the franchise, so it’s not like I’m being overly pessimistic.

2014/2015 Season:

24-44-14
62 PTS
198 GF
283 GA
14th in the West

2015/2016 Predictions:

39-36-7
85 PTS
240 GF
260 GA
10th in the West

Top Scorer: Connor McDavid (70 points)
Best defenceman*: Oscar Klefbom
Likely to get dealt: Nail Yakupov

*Based on boxcars and advanced stats

PS. Quick shout out to the Oilogosphere. You guys are awesome.

Talking Draisaitl, Waivers and that Defence Core on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide this morning to talk about Draisaitl, Nikitin and Scrivens heading to the minors and some of the other issues surrounding the Oilers.

A couple of notes:

  • I’m fine with Leon going to Bakersfield. He’s a center and should be developed as a center at the appropriate level. The AHL is going to be great for him and his long-term development. I’m not convinced that this was a cost saving move to avoid paying out bonuses (that were quite lofty to begin with).
  • The defence needs help. But I don’t expect changes until McLellan tests out this group in 15-20 regular season games.
  • Nikitin might have mobility issues, but McLellan was able to work with guys that were even worse (Doug Murray, Kent Huskins). He didn’t have a perfect roster in San Jose, but he always had experienced players on defence, who were often paired with complementary players.
  • Tough break for Scrivens, but such is life for goalies. There’s plenty of options for your backup spot in the AHL and overseas. I think as long as you have two good options in net, with a good goalie coach to work with, and you have a strong team-defence schema, your club should be fine. And you really don’t need to go find an aging goalie, who don’t often get better with age anyways.