Betting on the veteran defencemen

/ sunilagni

The Edmonton Oilers defence is going to have a much different look this upcoming season. With Darnell Nurse gone, the Oilers have a lot of ice time in different game-states to distribute. Nurse played 37% of the team’s even-strength (5v5) time last year and 34% of their penalty kill time – and mostly against the mid to elite level opponents. Question now is who’ll be taking on those minutes, and how well can they do in a high-pressure season.

We know there’s a group of defencemen that will be pushing for new roles with some trying to establish themselves at the NHL level. This group would include players like Shea, Makhadumlin, Emberson and Stastney. But there’s also a group of veteran defencemen who are expected to carry the load based on their experience and familiarity with the team. And it’s worth assessing this group specifically to evaluate any risks and start to set some realistic expectations.

In other words – how confident should the team be feeling with this more veteran cluster, and how much are they willing to wager that these three will remain good?

The three defencemen worth monitoring are Connor Murphy (31 years old, 825 games ), Mattias Ekholm (36, 966 games) and Jake Walman (30, 320). All are established players who bring a different skillset to the roster. But the main concern would be their age, NHL games played, and if they’re likely to drop off this coming season. That could open the door for some of the unknown or emerging defencemen. But the team may also need to keep an eye on the player market in case things go sideways.

What I usually do for this type of high-level analysis is look at each player’s on-ice shot-share metrics relative to their team, over the course of their career. I basically want to know whether the player’s teams consistently perform better or worse in terms of shot share when he’s on the ice, and whether that relationship has changed as they’ve hit age 30 and beyond. This is meant to serve as a current snapshot of their performance and value and gives us a starting point for further questions and analysis.

Now because of what we know about player aging curves as they approach 30 and beyond, the wear and tear – and what I saw from each player last season – I was expecting all of their career trajectories with shot-share numbers to raise some red flags (and be in the negatives). I assumed their numbers would show that they’re having less of a positive impact on their teams. But I was pleasantly surprised to see that wasn’t the case for all three.

Mattias Ekholm

Ekholm has been very consistent over his career, with the team always doing better with him on the ice. Can’t say he’ll keep getting the top minutes, but the guy has been durable and continues to be effective even as his minutes have gradually declined. Safe to assume he’ll continue thriving in a top four role playing with and against top players, but worth managing his workload as there’s still a risk that the wheels fall off. There were signs that he’s losing a step, but I don’t think the concern should be as high as other players.

Connor Murphy

Murphy’s numbers have been fine considering he does play tough matchups. Pretty simple game outside of his own zone, so expectations should remain low. His numbers took a hit last year likely because he had to adjust to a new team and new system late in the season. So let’s see what he’s like after a full training camp with the team and consistent defence partners. There’s still a risk with this player as the numbers last season were pretty gross and aligned with previous seasons.

Jake Walman

Walman is the one who I’m a little more cautious about after this review. The gradual, steady decline in his shot-share rel numbers is concerning. He’s still a very useful player, I like his overall game, especially his puck movement and offensive instincts. But he’s had injury issues, which I tend to blame less on luck now and more on the player – and he’ll need to get back to being the player he was when he first arrived in Edmonton. He did still have a decent playoff run, but that was in a bottom four role playing against lesser competition. With his contract, I doubt that’s where management wants him to be.

Thoughts

I think the big takeaway from this is that while the defence is pretty good on paper and should be able to handle the loss of Nurse, management is taking on a fair bit of risk with this group of veteran players – and there’s a range of outcomes the team should prepare for. It’s going to take some time for the defence pairings for each game state to be sorted out. Ideally, it’s nailed down in training camp, but I suspect we’ll see a number of combinations over the first month or so, especially with a brand-new coaching staff looking to make its mark as big and as early as possible. In the meantime, it’ll be worth monitoring the player market for upgrades and youth, especially to address the right side which doesn’t look as strong as it should be.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Puck IQ, PuckPedia

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