Things were eventually going to regress for the Edmonton Oilers. Just too bad it all had to happen on a nationally televised game at home on Saturday night against the Maple Leafs. You just know this one stings even more for a lot of people around the Oilers, so lets see if the coaching staff makes some much needed adjustments. The groups did bounce back after the first game against Utah, but this one seems like a bigger punch to the mouth.
It’s been pretty clear that the team is heavily relying on their five-man-unit at even-strength and the powerplay to drive their excellent results. Without the group featuring McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard, the Oilers have been a disaster. At even-strength (5v5), the Oilers depth players have been outscored 4-17 (a goal-share of 19 percent!). They’re getting outshot, outchanced, outworked and it shows up in their shot-share numbers like Corsi and Expected Goals share, which are around 35 percent. The rate of shots for is cut in half – not sure if this is by design. Not a great look for a coaching staff that talked a lot about being the most prepared team and being ready to work, etc.
The Glimmer Twins should also expect to see their results regress, considering their on-ice shooting percentage is close to 20 percent and they’re playing a lot of minutes. I don’t like betting against these players, but how they’re being deployed is not sustainable.
Here’s a look at the roster’s on-ice numbers at even-strength so far this season, split up position and sorted by ice time.
As mentioned, the top guys are performing well, getting great results, and getting a PDO boost on top of that. The rest of the roster is struggling, and it might have to do with the play of defenceman Connor Murphy who has looked terribly slow and behind plays quite often. Among all NHL defencemen who have played at least 190 minutes at 5v5, he currently has the worst Corsi For percentage relative to his teammates (translation: he’s been the biggest drag on his teammates, league-wide). Not overly surprised that’s the case considering his numbers were poor last season after getting traded here – that’s the risk you take when betting on veterans. That long-term contract is looking ugly, fast.
Do also want to point out that the line of Micheals, Joseph and Formenton have been a trainwreck. Their goal share is now about 35 percent, their shot-share numbers are around there as well. And they have played over 90 minutes together. Not sure why the coaching staff is so committed to this trio, whose numbers are even worse with Murphy. Again, a punch in the mouth on Saturday night should be the wake up call. Formenton offers nothing, his signing still makes no sense, completely replaceable.
Oh, and lets just get this out there too since it’s one of the indicators being tracked here – the Oilers team save percentage at even-strength at this point is fourth lowest in the league. Levi was looking alright. Jarry still ain’t it.
Also, the penalty kill is allowing the sixth highest rate of shots against and sits near the bottom of the league. And the goaltending is also near the bottom of the league.
Good news is that the team has banked a bunch of points despite the injury issues. The bad news is that if they don’t make adjustments to player deployment (i.e., spreading out their offence across three lines and possibly calling up a defenceman from the AHL) they can expect to see their results slide. Just don’t let it happen against bottom-feeders next week.
Data: Natural Stat Trick
