Been meaning to write something about Vasily Podkolzin this summer, and I think this tweet from Bob has given me a good opportunity.

Podkolzin has been a great addition to the Edmonton Oilers forward group since being acquired from Vancouver for a fourth round pick. The 24 year old has been a regular in the top six for two seasons now, has had a positive impact on his team’s overall play, and recently turned his performance into a three year contract that pays $2.95 million per year.

What stands out to me watching Podkolzin is just how good he is at making life hard for opposing players. He’s good on the forecheck, physical and does a really nice job at retrieving pucks. He’s just an efficient player – doesn’t expend too much energy, but appears to be in the right spot to help make plays. He hasn’t yet translated his skillset into regular individual goal-scoring, but he does a lot of things right to give his team a chance to win games.

And while some like Bob and others may feel that Podkolzin is on the verge of becoming a play driving winger, I would argue that he already is one. And there’s potential for him to be even better at it based on a solid track record so far in Edmonton.

Just to clarify, my definition of a play-driving winger is someone who has a positive impact on his team’s ability to outshoot and outchance opponents. Basically, when a play-driving winger hits the ice, the team’s share of shot attempts and scoring chances should go up. And that’s regardless of who he’s playing with as linemates. So for a relatively simple exercise like this one, I would use the individual player’s on-ice shot-share numbers like Corsi and Expected Goals relative to his teammates.

Last season with Podkolzin on the ice at even-strength (5v5), the team’s Corsi For percentage was a solid 53.65%. That’s 4.33 higher than what the Oilers posted overall. Now you could argue that Podkolzin’s numbers would benefit from playing with one of the best players in the word, and that’s fair. But even without Draisaitl or McDavid with him on the ice, Podkolzin’s Corsi For percentage (51.97) and Expected Goals for percentage (53.32) was above the team average. This indicates that Podkolzin’s performance numbers aren’t entirely driven by playing with star players. And that he tends to have a positive impact when playing with depth forwards as well. It’s all too common for the team’s performance to drop off when the Glimmer Twins are on the bench. So it’s good to know that there’s a solid play driver who could help get others going. 

Should also mention here that this is the second year where Podkolzin’s on-ice numbers have been strong. In his first year with Edmonton in 2024/25, he had posted an on-ice Cosi For percentage of 57.04 percent, which was 3.65 higher than the team average. And again, his numbers were solid with and without the top guys.

So I’m pretty comfortable saying the play driving winger has already emerged.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Coming off a disappointing regular season and playoff run, I was really curious to see how the Edmonton Oilers would react and position themselves for success in 2026/27. A lot of extra time after an early exit from the playoffs, combined with everything happening elsewhere in the NHL market, was going to be a factor.

Would they double down on their current state, banking on their team’s high-end talent, support players, and coaching staff? Or would they actually do something drastic and address the pressing issues like scoring depth and goaltending? And what about the underlying, big picture, roster-construction issues the team finds itself constantly mired in? This team has a bit of a history of sub-optimal decision making under this owner, so you never really know what you’re going to get. And it’s the consistent misalignment between the general manager’s office and the coaching staff that makes things weird sometimes.

So the changes we have so far: a new coaching staff, a new goaltender group, new defencemen (including a new one for the top four), new depth players, and the removal of Nurse’s contract from the books. Pretty significant changes with a good amount of risk tied to it all, which is healthy. But it does raise a couple red flags.

One concern with these changes is that there doesn’t appear to be a big master plan or strategy that’s helping guide some pretty critical decisions. For example – hiring Babcock seemed a little clunky, and kind of reeks of desperation and panic. While it didn’t make sense to retain Knoblauch’s staff, there probably should have been a wider search to not only get the best coaching candidates but to also gather good intel from potential coaches on how they view Edmonton’s roster and previous tactics – and how they would and wouldn’t run the Oilers bench. That’s something the management team would push for, but it feels like they got overridden by the players. It’s unclear who actually initiated the hiring of Babcock and when – and more importantly, who’s going to be accountable if or when things go sideways. It’s fine if the players have a say in the hire, but do you really want to give them full autonomy of who gets to coach the team when they don’t even know what the management team’s long-term plans are for the roster? Again, just feels clunky and amateurish.

A few other thoughts:

• Starting to see some signs that the Oilers front office is being a little more proactive and innovative, especially in a league that’s really rewarding intelligent risk-takers. They’ve added smart people to the front office, especially on the data side, but it remains to be seen how much influence they’ll have on roster decisions. Seeing two teams in the finals this year who like making smart short and long-term bets and aren’t afraid to be a little ruthless should hopefully rub off on Edmonton. Safe is death.
• Babcock’s lack of success the last time he was employed – combined with him talking in the third person at his introductory media availability – doesn’t breed a lot of confidence. And I think it’s clear Edmonton is hedging their bet by adding a pretty capable associate coach in D.J. Smith. That could end up being a pretty important asset.
• It was good to hear Stan Bowman confirm that he was concerned about the amount and proportion of minutes McDavid and Draisaitl had been playing. The tendency to go back to their top players over and over again and not try anything new has historically aligned with how the Oilers, from top to bottom, operate. If Babcock figures out how to reduce their minutes without somehow sacrificing goals and wins, that’ll be massive and would indicate progress within the organization. The depth signings combined with the emergence of younger players is critical and will be closely monitored.
• One highlight this summer has been the goalie changes, especially with the addition of Frederik Andersen. Low risk, high potential, especially if he can stay healthy. I do like how the Oilers could balance his workload as needed, and it makes sense considering the Oilers’ travel schedule. I also like the diversification the Oilers have with Andersen, Jarry and Levi. Year over year, we see different teams have success with a different approach in net – some go with an older guy, some have a league-average goalie and some have a younger one who emerges after a solid AHL run. Why not have all three goalie types and see what shakes out.

After another disappointing post-season, there’s going to be plenty of focus on what went wrong this year for the Edmonton Oilers and the many mistakes that have led to zero cups in the Connor McDavid era. But the issues like the roster construction, the coaching, the tactics, the penalty kill, goaltending, and so forth – these are all symptoms of larger, systemic issues. And until the Oilers address the system, they’ll continue to cycle through the same problems – no matter who’s the general manager, behind the bench or on the roster.

If the goal is to become a consistent contender, not just a hopeful one, the organization needs to be clear on a small set of strategies it must do exceptionally well—year after year. From my own professional experience and time analyzing the game, I keep coming back to four:

• Drafting well is obviously at the foundation of sustainable contenders. It’s about identifying players with playoff-caliber traits – think skating, skill, competitiveness, adaptability, or whatever shows a stronger correlation to winning games. Not every pick is going to be a superstar, but they have to eventually cover roles across your program (at the NHL level and minor leagues). Drafting well reduces uncertainty and helps create asset leverage.
• Development is where potential becomes value. It’s about helping young players improve so they can fill important roles, but this also involves efficient evaluation to determine whether this player is “real” and on track or not. Getting this step right and translating information into team-friendly contracts gives an organization a massive competitive advantage.
• Derisk is about supplementing the roster with reliable, interchangeable players who can help mitigate uncertainty. It protects against injuries, stalled development and the volatility that comes up in the regular season and playoffs. More importantly, it prevents panic decisions—the kind that led to long-term deals driven by reputation and urgency.
• Deployment involves taking the previous three strategies and turning them into actual outcomes by leaning on solid coaching, tactics, and execution. Get the right players in the right roles, build the right combinations and be ready to adapt when things happen or new information emerges. Roles should be based on impact and strong evidence, not reputation.

In simple terms: Drafting creates options. Development creates information. Derisking manages uncertainty. And deployment converts the surplus into wins.

Now none of these strategies are possible without the right enablers, which I’ve summarized below. Strategy is only as good as the organization’s ability to execute it, and it’s critical that the Oilers get these right.

• People: Teams that contend for championships prioritize strong judgment over historical reputation. Management, amateur and pro scouts, development staff, cap analysts, and coaches need to be aligned—especially at key decision points like the draft, trade deadlines, and contracts.
• Technology and data: The right tools can help build your organizations knowledge and insights and reduces reliance on anecdotal evidence and recency bias. Think video, player tracking and the infrastructure behind it all. And data exists to reduce decision errors by identifying the metrics that matter (i.e., correlates to goals and wins), track development curves, define performance indicators and separate usage effects from results. It helps inform a team’s decision-making process.
• Governance: This has to do with clarity on who decides, when and with what inputs. Think parameters and key guiding principles that you would want the front office to abide by to protect the organization from long term ramifications (like long term, buyout proof contracts for power forwards over thirty).

This framework of strategies and enablers doesn’t guarantee championships, but it does instill organizational discipline that (1) improves a team’s odds of winning and (2) correct things faster when things inevitably go wrong.

The Edmonton Oilers have been making progress in some areas of the framework. They have found ways to derisk through some trades and signings and have invested in data analytics and technology to support decision-making at the draft and trade deadlines. But the results suggest major inconsistencies across the rest of the framework. The front office has struggled to build a competitive roster around their star players – largely due to poor drafting and developing, panic signings and trades, and very risk-averse coaching. And this all then leads back to the same conversations about the Oilers off-season – goaltending, penalty kill, team defence, and so forth.

In the modern-day NHL, championships aren’t won by simply assembling talent and hoping for the best. They’re won by organizations that have a repeatable strategy—one that consistently creates value, manages risk, and adapts. For a team like the Edmonton Oilers, competing for championships year after year requires more than just elite stars; it requires strong organizational alignment, discipline, and process. And the Oilers need to address these systemic issues if they realistically want to get things back on track.