One last check-in on the western conference before the 2024 NHL playoffs begin next week.

The Oilers finished second in the Pacific division and fifth in the west, going 14-7-4 in their last twenty-five games of the regular season. They’re easily one of the top teams in the league, but they have a lot of strong competition – especially in the west. All eight teams have a case for winning their opening round series, and there doesn’t appear to be any easy paths to the finals.

Couple reasons for optimism.

The Oilers have consistently posted some of the best shot-share numbers in the league, ranking highly when it comes to the rate of generating shots and scoring chances as well as preventing them. I think that’s something that tends to get overlooked because of their high-end offence. The Oilers have over the course of the full season been a pretty solid defensive team, posting some of the lowest rates of shots and scoring chances against, and doing everything they can to help their goaltending.

The Oilers actual results have been very good. Their +57 goal differential (all situations) was fifth best in the league, and third in the western conference only behind Dallas (+64) and Winnipeg (+60). Their 55.78 percent goal-share (+40 goal differential) at even-strength (5v5) was fifth best in the league, and driven largely by their 55.52 percent Corsi For percentage and finishing talent at the top of their roster. Worth noting that while the Oilers did a good job controlling the flow of play and scoring chances without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, they couldn’t consistently convert on their chances and posted a -3 goal differential. The lack of finishing talent has been a problem all season, and wasn’t addressed by management.

The one area that could (again) be an issue is goaltending. It’s been a great story this year with Stuart Skinner, and how he’s solidified himself as a legit starter with Campbell being demoted to the minors. But the team’s 89.77 percent save percentage (all situations) finished 17th in the league and 9th in the western conference. Among the eight teams from the west that have qualified for the playoffs, their save percentage is only slightly better than Colorado’s (89.70 percent). It could be good enough for the playoffs, but I don’t expect the Oilers goaltending to win the team any games when games get tighter.

The other issue is Skinner’s workload this season, which has been one of the highest in the league. Only four other goalies played more minutes than him, which is a serious concern that I wrote about back in January. Ideally, you have a tandem in net to keep both goaltenders fresh for the playoffs. Unfortunately, the Oilers didn’t address this situation, and are at serious risk of performing poorly at such an important position.

Quick glance into how each western conference has performed at even-strength over their last twenty five games (since around mid-February). Helps give a sense of what each team’s strengths and weaknesses are and how it could translate into their post-season results.

Nashville really stands out here. They might have finished the season in the first wild card spot, but they finished the season on a high note. They posted a 0.740 points percentage in their last twenty give games, driven largely by their strong shot-share and expected goal numbers, as well as their goaltending. Vancouver on the other hand had really regressed, coming close to losing their grip on the Pacific division title to Edmonton. They’re having trouble scoring goals recently, which is a little concerning since they’re going up against Nashville in the first round.

Vegas didn’t have a great finish to the season either, and their goaltending was one of the worst in the league. But with players coming back from injury, and the fact that they’re doing a good job controlling the flow of play and scoring chances indicates that they should be competitive in the first round. Dallas is the one team that’s been good all season long, and could be the team to beat in the west.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

After a bit of a slump in February, the Edmonton Oilers performed really well in the month of March, collecting 22 points in 15 games – a points percentage of 0.733 that ranked seventh-best in the league.

The club currently ranks second in the Pacific with a points percentage of 0.653 and eighth in the league. Their even-strength performance indicates that they’ll have positive results going forward. Their powerplay continues to be one of the best in the league. And the penalty kill isn’t costing them wins. All positive indicators heading down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue-adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

Edmonton continues to control the flow of play and scoring chances at even-strength (5v5), posting the third-best Corsi For percentage in the league and the best Expected Goals For percentage. McDavid is the obvious play-driver for the club, but the Oilers are also posting a 53 percent Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals share without him on the ice. The actual results (i.e., goal differential) does slide due to the lack of scoring talent in the bottom six and average goaltending, but there’s still plenty of optimism around the club.

Having said that, the rest of the western conference is looking really strong, especially compared to the east. The top end teams in the west are all posting great even-strength numbers, and look like legit contenders. Colorado, Dallas, Vancouver, Los Angeles, Winnipeg, and now Nashville, are all in the green in terms of shot-share numbers and goal differential.

Compare that to the eastern conference where things are looking a little more wide open. The Rangers, while ranking first in the league, aren’t that great at even-strength, ranking below average when it comes to shot-share numbers and only have a 51% goal-share that ranks 14th in the league. Boston is also struggling to control the flow of play, so its difficult to have confidence in them even though they rank second. And three of the top eight teams in the east have a negative goal-differential at 5v5.

Back to the Oilers, and I wanted to see how the individual players have performed at even-strength since the trade deadline, and if there’s any areas for concern.

As mentioned, the top end of the roster continued to perform really well, and there’s no indication that their results should decline. It’s the rest of the roster that was a little unstable, especially the new trade deadline additions. Henrique as a center on the third line didn’t work very well, and has been spending more time as a winger on the second line, which has boosted his numbers. Carrick is basically what I was expecting, and isn’t even getting time on the penalty kill now. And Stecher has been so-so in the limited minutes he’s played. I can understand that it takes time for players to adjust to a new team and system, but that’s the risk of trade deadline acquisitions.

Also worth pointing out that while he’s been getting better results recently, Connor Brown’s on-ice shot-share numbers continue to be poor. The team allows a lot of chances with him on the ice, and I wouldn’t have a lot of confidence in his play in critical playoff games. He’s been given plenty of opportunities with an array of linemates now, and I do wonder if the team is better off with someone like Holloway or Gagner in the lineup than him.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

While the Oilers did manage to add some serviceable players at this year’s trade deadline, I don’t think it was quite enough to give them any new competitive edges among other championship contenders.

The Oilers already have the top end talent at the top of their roster of forwards, along with some good complementary players with unique skillsets spread across the group. But they’ve been lacking enough finishing talent among their depth forwards at even-strength. Without McDavid  or Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers have done a good job controlling the flow of play (53.54 percent Corsi For percentage) and out-chancing opponents (53.29 percent expected goals for percentage). But it’s all been a waste as they’re only converting on 6.03% of their shots this season, and have been outscored 40-48 – a goal-share of only 45.45 percent.

Adding Henrique does give the Oilers an offensive boost up front, as he’s been a productive player in Anaheim the last few years at even-strength, and fairly consistent. His 1.84 points per hour rate this season is at a top-six level, and is almost identical to his points per hour rate over the previous five seasons (1.83). What’s especially encouraging about Henrique is that his finishing ability has been very good this season, as he’s posted a 12.68 percent individual shooting percentage in Anaheim, which is only slightly lower than the 13.82 percent shooing percentage he’s posted over the previous five seasons. His individual rate of shots this season (5.94) is down slightly from his career norms (6.79), but that might be because of the team he’s been playing on and the lack of talent he’s had to play with.

Speaking of which, the table below lists the Anaheim forwards this season, sorted by their total ice-time, including each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. I’ve also included each player’s on-ice shooting and save percentage along with PDO to see what could be impacting their actual results (i.e., goal differential). A basic heat map has been applied to show how each player compares to their peers.

Henrique looks okay here, as he hasn’t been any sort of play driver for the Ducks this season, but hasn’t been a major drag either. His relative-to-team numbers are slightly down from the previous two seasons, making me think he’ll need someone on his line who can play with defensive responsibility. I’m not totally sold on him being a third line, play-making centerman either. So he might need to be with good play drivers like McLeod and Foegele for the Oilers to get some productivity out of him.

Really not sure what the Oilers are expecting from Carrick whose on-ice numbers had been awful this season relative to his teammates. I think this acquisition speaks volumes to how the Oilers feel about their AHL options, as there are very comparable players in Bakersfield including Gagner, Malone and Caggiula.

On the blueline, the Oilers did add a good seventh defencemen in Troy Stecher, who should be able to fill in as needed, and provide a little bit of offence. His relative to team numbers among Arizona defenceman were fine this season, as he was typically in a bottom-pairing role on a pretty shallow defence core. But I do find it funny that the other depth defenceman on their roster who posted better numbers than Stecher was Kesselring – a late round pick of the Oilers who was traded to Arizona last trade deadline to acquire Bjugstad. Bjugstad, as you may recall, posted some of the worst 5v5 numbers on the Oilers in the 2023 post-season, and was part of the reason why Vegas was able to exploit the Oilers weaknesses. But I digress.

Defence is an area where the Oilers really needed to make a bigger move as the pairing of Nurse and Ceci have not been good this season. And it’s especially concerning heading into the post-season with this tandem as their numbers together over the last three playoff runs have also been rough. In 26 playoff games, 345 minutes together at even-strength, the duo have posted a Corsi For percentage of 46.95 percent and an expected goals for percentage of 47.76 percent. Expecting better numbers from them this coming post-season would be foolish, and it’ll be on the coach now to closely monitor their deployment and forward pairings to get the most out of them.

The area that I felt the Oilers needed to better address was the goaltending. Skinner is having a great season, but I do wonder if he’ll be burnt out by the time the playoffs start. He’s played the seventh highest minutes among all NHL goalies at this point, which makes me think we might see the same performance from him that we saw in the 2023 playoffs. Among 28 goalies, Skinner was 21st with a 0.883 all-situations save percentage. Pickard has been fine as a backup this year, but more should have been done by management to shore up this critical position earlier on in the season.

So while the Oilers did a good job by adding Henrique and Stecher to fill specific roles, I don’t think it did enough to gain any sort of competitive edge over the other cup contenders. And by not addressing the defence and goaltending properly, they might have jeopardized their chances of a longer playoff run. Considering this is McDavid’s ninth season, and Draisaitl is in the last year of his contract next season, a lot more needed to be done.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

A little late getting this one together, but I was interested in seeing if forward Jordan Eberle could be a potential trade target for the Edmonton Oilers at the trade deadline. Depth scoring at even-strength (5v5) is currently a problem for the team, as the club is only converting on 5.97 percent of their shots when McDavid and/or Draisaitl aren’t on the ice – well below league average levels (8.57 percent). And while the Oilers depth players are doing a good job at controlling the flow of play (53.56 percent Corsi For%) and out-chancing opponents (53.30 percent Expected Goals For%), they’ve been outscored 40-48 this season – a goal-share of only 45.45 percent.

Eberle is in the last year of his contract with Seattle, and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer as a 33-year old. He’s put up 695 points in 998 games, and also has that playoff experience hockey managers like, appearing in 76 games including two eastern conference final appearances with the Islanders.

Over the course of his career, Eberle has been pretty consistent putting up second-line level points per hour at even-strength. This season, his rate has slipped slightly to 1.63 per hour, down from the 1.91 points per hour he posted in the previous five seasons.

A key driver for his point totals declining is his personal shooting percentage, which is sitting at 7.14 percent this season. Looking at his historical numbers, there’s been some ebb and flow, but he’s been pretty consistent posting a shooting percentage of 11.74 percent over the previous five seasons. I’d like to think this season is an anomaly just based on how consistent he’s been in the past, but age and wear and tear might be catching up to Eberle.

One reason to be optimistic about Eberle’s shooting percentage bouncing back is his continued ability to generate shots for himself. Over the previous five seasons, Eberle has averaged 7.44 shots per hour at even-strength. This season, he’s generating 7.78. Had this seasons rate of shots been lower than his career levels, I’d feel that maybe he was losing a step and not getting himself into plays often enough. But it appears that skillset is still there, indicating that there’s a chance that more of those shots will eventually turn into goals going forward.

Another reason to be optimistic about Eberle remaining productive is his ability to drive offence for the Kraken at even-strength this season. Eberle continues to be a top-six option for his club and his team tends to out-shoot and out-chance opponents more often when he’s on the ice. The table below lists the Kraken forwards this season, sorted by their total ice-time, including each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. I’ve also included each player’s on-ice shooting and save percentage along with PDO to see what could be impacting their actual results (i.e., goal differential). A basic heat map has been applied to show how each player compares to their peers.

Eberle’s numbers really stand out here. He’s posting some of the best shot-based metrics on the team, indicating that his team tends to do better with him than without him.

What’s interesting to note is that Eberle does appear to be having a bit of a bounce-back season. In the previous two seasons with Seattle, he was posting negative relative-to-team numbers – maybe because he was adjusting to a new system and playing some of the highest minutes on the team. Prior to that, he’d been consistently posting positive numbers, indicating his ability to help drive play and his team’s chances of out-scoring opponents. This season, his numbers appear to be back to where we would expect them to be, making me wonder if his productivity could improve, potentially as an Oiler.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Bit of a disappointing run of games for the Edmonton Oilers in the month of February. After a 16-game winning streak to close out January and head into the All Star Break, the club collected 13 points in 12 games (6-5-1), which translates to a 0.542 points percentage that ranked 20th in the league.

The good news is that the Oilers are still near the top of the Pacific division as Vancouver and Vegas also had poor results in February. Vancouver only secured 12 points in 13 games (0.462 points percentage) and Vegas only secured 9 points in 10 games (0.450 points percentage). Calgary, Los Angeles and Seattle all posted points percentages 0.600 and higher in February.

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue-adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

The Oilers continue to post strong shot-share numbers at even-strength, including a 55.84 percent Corsi For percentage (CF%) and a 57.72 percent Expected Goals For percentage (xGF%). Because their overall team shooting percentage and team save percentage is at or below league average levels, their goal-share isn’t as high as it should be.

With the trade deadline coming up next week, there’s plenty of issues the Oilers management needs to address to be competitive in the playoffs. Goaltending is still a concern for this club as it ranks 14th in the western conference, and the workload has been very high for Skinner (relative to other starting netminders). Depth scoring is a concern as the club has posted a -6 goal differential without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice this season. The third and fourth lines have done a good job creating chances, but they really lack that finishing ability posting a shooting percentage of only 6.01 percent. That’s a problem considering the Oilers have played 47 percent of their time without one of the two star players. Another way to help the bottom six is to have some more talent on defence that can make passes and plays.

A lot of talk about potential trade options, so I thought I’d share the same information for the eastern conference teams. Just to get a sense of which teams are doing well and which teams should be in sell mode if they’re not already.

Detroit is the one club that’s getting better results than expected. Their shot share number are so poor, but they’re finishing their chances enough to keep them in the race. Florida looks legit, but appears to be having some issues with finishing. I’ll be honest, I thought Boston would be looking strong here, but their success doesn’t appear to be sustainable.

Should be an interesting week heading towards the trade deadline. I’ll be curious to see which teams work on addressing their issues, especially clubs like Florida, Carolina and New York – all of which have cup aspirations.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

PS. Just wanted to say thanks to those that continue to read and support my work. I just noticed that February 29th was my eight-year anniversary since I started working with CBC Edmonton as an Oilers analyst. I’ll never forget that day, getting to provide trade deadline analysis in 2016 with host Adrienne Pan on live television. Such a cool experience. I’ve been blogging for much longer, and have had a lot of fun with it. Getting to write with Copper and Blue and being a guest on Lowetide’s show on TSN radio. And now writing for Oilersnation and still doing some radio work with CBC – I feel very fortunate for the opportunities.