Been meaning to write something about Vasily Podkolzin this summer, and I think this tweet from Bob has given me a good opportunity.
Podkolzin has been a great addition to the Edmonton Oilers forward group since being acquired from Vancouver for a fourth round pick. The 24 year old has been a regular in the top six for two seasons now, has had a positive impact on his team’s overall play, and recently turned his performance into a three year contract that pays $2.95 million per year.
What stands out to me watching Podkolzin is just how good he is at making life hard for opposing players. He’s good on the forecheck, physical and does a really nice job at retrieving pucks. He’s just an efficient player – doesn’t expend too much energy, but appears to be in the right spot to help make plays. He hasn’t yet translated his skillset into regular individual goal-scoring, but he does a lot of things right to give his team a chance to win games.
And while some like Bob and others may feel that Podkolzin is on the verge of becoming a play driving winger, I would argue that he already is one. And there’s potential for him to be even better at it based on a solid track record so far in Edmonton.
Just to clarify, my definition of a play-driving winger is someone who has a positive impact on his team’s ability to outshoot and outchance opponents. Basically, when a play-driving winger hits the ice, the team’s share of shot attempts and scoring chances should go up. And that’s regardless of who he’s playing with as linemates. So for a relatively simple exercise like this one, I would use the individual player’s on-ice shot-share numbers like Corsi and Expected Goals relative to his teammates.
Last season with Podkolzin on the ice at even-strength (5v5), the team’s Corsi For percentage was a solid 53.65%. That’s 4.33 higher than what the Oilers posted overall. Now you could argue that Podkolzin’s numbers would benefit from playing with one of the best players in the word, and that’s fair. But even without Draisaitl or McDavid with him on the ice, Podkolzin’s Corsi For percentage (51.97) and Expected Goals for percentage (53.32) was above the team average. This indicates that Podkolzin’s performance numbers aren’t entirely driven by playing with star players. And that he tends to have a positive impact when playing with depth forwards as well. It’s all too common for the team’s performance to drop off when the Glimmer Twins are on the bench. So it’s good to know that there’s a solid play driver who could help get others going.
Should also mention here that this is the second year where Podkolzin’s on-ice numbers have been strong. In his first year with Edmonton in 2024/25, he had posted an on-ice Cosi For percentage of 57.04 percent, which was 3.65 higher than the team average. And again, his numbers were solid with and without the top guys.
So I’m pretty comfortable saying the play driving winger has already emerged.
Data: Natural Stat Trick
The SuperFan 