Edmonton Oilers

McLellan and Volume Shooting

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Oilers head coach Todd McLellan made an interesting comment recently about putting shots on net, emphasizing volume shooting.

“Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.”  –

Source

I can’t say I was surprised when he dismissed Corsi and Fenwick. He’s likely aware that those are good proxies for possession, but isn’t likely to disclose how much or how often he uses those types of metrics. But when he mentioned volume shooting, I wanted to see just how much shooting his team did when he was in San Jose and what exactly it translated to.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

McDavid Gives Himself Permission

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment

1297761398683_ORIGINALReally can’t say enough about Connor McDavid. The kid has been very impressive in his first six games, pretty much confirming all of the hype.

His game in Calgary was simply outstanding, as he dominated the opposition, scoring two goals and adding an assist to go along with a CF% of 76.5% at even-strength. He made a lot of smart plays, often while under pressure, and was often carrying the puck and generating scoring chances.

After the game, Todd McLellan had this to say:

That was the best game yet from Connor, He made an impact throughout the night. Had an impact on the score sheet and probably could have had even more of an impact with some of the chances he had. I thought he let himself go and kind of gave himself permission. Sometimes you have to do that to get after it. As a young player you don’t have to give way to the veterans all the time; you’re allowed to go out and take charge. And I thought he did that. (Source: NHL.com)

I had noticed  in the first two games against St. Louis and Nashville how often McDavid would make a pass or look to make a pass rather than shoot. I’d seen enough of his highlights in junior to know that he likes carrying the puck and used his speed regularly to pressure defencemen and create room for himself. But since it’s the NHL and his first time playing against experienced players, it’s understandable that he deferred to his teammates instead. I think a lot of us were relieved to see him carry the puck more in Calgary and really become that driver that could generate chances.

Out of curiosity, I wanted to see if what we saw in Calgary could be verified with the data available at War on Ice. I decided to look at shot attempts and see what percentage of the shot attempts McDavid was on the ice for actually came from his stick. For now, I looked at all situations (even-strength and special teams) to see if anything stood out.

McDavid CF Proportion

Pretty clear jump from the first four games to the one in Calgary for young Connor. He was, early on, paired with Hall, who we know takes a lot of shot attempts himself, so it’s been  a smart move separating the two. It also gives you two drivers on two separate lines, which will be tough for opposing coaches who want to match lines. We’ll let that Vancouver game slide. It was the Oilers third game in four nights, and the entire team got dominated possession wise. I don’t expect McDavid to have that low of a shot attempt proportion often.

Hopefully McDavid can continue with his strong play and start carrying the puck and generating scoring chances on a more consistent basis. This should be a fun season.

Talking Oilers winning streak, goaltending and third pairing defencemen on The Lowdown with Lowetide

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Joined Lowetide this morning to discuss the back-to-back road wins this weekend, as well as our current assessment of the roster. Also touched on the goaltending (which has been stellar thus far) and what we can expect in the next week with games against Detroit, Washington and LA coming up.

Couple links:

  • I wrote about some of the metrics I’ll be tracking in the first 10 games over at The Copper & Blue.
  • Speeds was on the show earlier. Full audio of his segment is over at SoundCloud.
  • Didn’t get to mention it, but the changes McLellan made on the powerplay are hopefully going to turn things around. Willis has a great post here.
  • Woodguy has a great article up on the Oilers defence. Highly, highly recommend checking it out at Because Oilers.

Passing on Matt Irwin

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Having so many question marks on defence will lead to plenty of discussion every single time a bottom-six defenceman is available on the waiver wire.Frank Corrado caught the attention of Oilers fans last week when theCanucks demoted him to the minors (and eventually snapped up by the Leafs) and we had a similar thing happen this past weekend with a slightly different result.

After two rough games, the Boston Bruins demoted 27-year old defenceman Matt Irwinwho they had signed this off-season to a one year deal worth $800,000, making him available to all 29 teams through waivers. The Oilers again didn’t bite, but this time, neither did the other 28 clubs.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The SuperFan Podcast – Episode 2

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Topics include the Oilers off-season moves, training camp, strengths and weaknesses in the lineup and what my expectations are for the 2015/16 season.

Related Links

The SuperFan Podcast – Episode 1

Goaltending for the 2015-2016 Season  – The SuperFan

Goalies with Potential – The SuperFan

Goalies and Voodoo Magic – The SuperFan

Sharks Under McLellan III – Contributions from Defencemen – The SuperFan

Sharks Under McLellan IV – Systems and Tactics – The SuperFan

Old Man Power – The Copper & Blue

The First 10 Games – The Copper & Blue

Thoughts on the Oilers – 2015/2016 Season – The SuperFan

Thoughts on the Oilers: 2015/2016 Season

/ sunilagni / 2 Comments

Edmonton Oilers v Detroit Red WingsWe’ve spent close to 11 months speculating about the 2015/16 season, so it’ll be nice to get things started on Thursday. The team was dead in the water by November last season, winning only 6 of 24 games in the first two months. I was feeling optimistc that things would get better last September. But unfortunately, MacTavish failed to provide his coaching staff with a legitimate NHL roster and the rest was history. The goaltending faltered, the defence was still being sorted out (Petry was a healthy scratch, remember that?) and Leon Draisaitl was our second line center.

Next to the addition of Connor McDavid, I think the next significant addition to the organization is the coaching staff. I really have high expectations knowing that Todd McLellan is behind the bench with assistants that he selected. I have full confidence that he’ll be the guy leading the Oilers into the playoffs down the road (and hopefully beyond). There’s definitely a renewed sense of hope and urgency in the city, and hopefully the players can deliver.

Defence

That defence core I just can’t get behind. Sekera and Fayne should be the top pairing and should excel against tough competition. I like the Klefbom signing a lot, but I don’t know if I’m okay with him being paired with Schultz to start the season. Klefbom is great at breaking up plays, but I’d rather a young player be paired with an experienced one. I do want to see Schultz have a great year…always been a fan of the offensive defencemen. But he would be better served being paired with an experienced shut down type. I hope I’m wrong and the two young guys can hold their own. The bottom pairing really needed to be enhanced over the past few weeks and really could have been. Reinhart never stood out to me this training camp, and should be developing in the AHL until he’s 100% ready. I do think he’s being rushed because of what the Oilers traded for him. Gryba, Ference and Davidson are 7th options at best, but will likely be playing a few levels above what they should be playing. In an ideal situation, each line would have a puck mover and a physical, stay-at-home type, similar to what McLellan ran in San Jose, but I guess we’ll have to see how things play out.

Goaltending

I’m good with the current tandem. I just think both Talbot and Nilsson will continue to see high-danger scoring chances more often than other goalies. Despite the popular perception, Talbot did not have elite defencemen in front of him in New York. They were better than the Oilers, but it wasn’t as if Talbot was never tested. It’ll be interesting to see how the existing defence core does and if Chiarelli is willing to make moves right away if need be. Now that the forward core is set, I think we’ll see some movement.

Training Camp

I’ve always suspected it, but I think it’s been confirmed now: training camp isn’t about winning jobs, it’s about keeping them. Players who are brought in as “Group B” types, those that are destined for the AHL, are there to show they haven’t regressed and that the development system is working. There’s nothing wrong with that, as it’s just a good way to sharpen your “Group A” roster. After seeing the low level of competition the Oilers faced in exhibition games, I don’t see how a coaching staff can properly assess their players. I’d much rather see how a player does in 35 regular season games in the AHL than a two-week training camp.

I’m a huge fan of Leon Draisaitl, mainly because he’s a center that has size and skill. Those don’t come around very often, making it critical that they develop at their position in the appropriate environment. I didn’t expect him to make the roster, but I think he showed enough talent and production that the team should not hesitate to call him up when he’s needed. I understand that argument for keeping him in the NHL, but if experienced people like Chiarelli and McLellan say he isn’t quite ready, I’ll take their word for it.

It’s great that Anyon Slepyshev made the team. I’m just not convinced that he’s a long-term solution on wing just yet. I’m always skeptical when guys make the team in training camp as they don’t often pan out, especially for the Oilers. Patrick Thoresen, Lennart Petrell and Anton Lander come to mind. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle the wingers once Jordan Eberle is back. Really hate to say it, but I’m suspecting that Yakupov might become expendable if Slepyshev performs well or if the team wants to bring up a physical player like Iiro Pakarinen.

Bold Predictions

Despite the addition of McDavid and new the coaching staff, I don’t see the Oilers making the playoffs just yet. There are too many question marks on defence and the goaltending is largely unproven. Having said that, I would be thrilled if the Oilers can remain competitive past December and finish 10th in the western conference. That would be a major jump for the franchise, so it’s not like I’m being overly pessimistic.

2014/2015 Season:

24-44-14
62 PTS
198 GF
283 GA
14th in the West

2015/2016 Predictions:

39-36-7
85 PTS
240 GF
260 GA
10th in the West

Top Scorer: Connor McDavid (70 points)
Best defenceman*: Oscar Klefbom
Likely to get dealt: Nail Yakupov

*Based on boxcars and advanced stats

PS. Quick shout out to the Oilogosphere. You guys are awesome.

Talking Draisaitl, Waivers and that Defence Core on The Lowdown with Lowetide

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Joined Lowetide this morning to talk about Draisaitl, Nikitin and Scrivens heading to the minors and some of the other issues surrounding the Oilers.

A couple of notes:

  • I’m fine with Leon going to Bakersfield. He’s a center and should be developed as a center at the appropriate level. The AHL is going to be great for him and his long-term development. I’m not convinced that this was a cost saving move to avoid paying out bonuses (that were quite lofty to begin with).
  • The defence needs help. But I don’t expect changes until McLellan tests out this group in 15-20 regular season games.
  • Nikitin might have mobility issues, but McLellan was able to work with guys that were even worse (Doug Murray, Kent Huskins). He didn’t have a perfect roster in San Jose, but he always had experienced players on defence, who were often paired with complementary players.
  • Tough break for Scrivens, but such is life for goalies. There’s plenty of options for your backup spot in the AHL and overseas. I think as long as you have two good options in net, with a good goalie coach to work with, and you have a strong team-defence schema, your club should be fine. And you really don’t need to go find an aging goalie, who don’t often get better with age anyways.

Couple Thoughts on the Backup Goalie Position

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

The Oilers will be making a big decision between the pipes having to select one of Anders Nilsson or Ben Scrivens to back up Cam Talbot. You could argue that the backup position is meaningless and doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. Talbot will likely get the majority of starts, and whoever backs him up just needs to be good to average.

One thing to consider, however, is that Talbot is still trying to establish himself as a legitimate starter and needs a new contract for next season. The Oilers cannot negotiate anything with him until January 1, 2016, giving Talbot only a few months to prove his value and lock down that number one spot. An impending contract negotiation, along with a capable backup that should push for minutes, is more than enough motivation for Talbot to perform well.

A quick glance at the candidates:

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Ranking the Top 25 Under 25

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

11189242Enjoyed my opportunity to contribute to the Copper & Blue’s Top 25 Under 25 series this summer. I, along with nine other contributors, ranked each Oilers prospect and did short write-ups summarizing each player’s development and what we can expect from them going forward.

I’ve been a long time fan of the series and find myself often searching through older articles when writing about player development. The interesting part for me was learning about my own biases and what I look for in prospects. Basically, if you’re a center or a defenceman or played in OKC last season, you’re gold in my books. If you’re a goalie or were just drafted in the last two years, I don’t care much for you. I was confident with my top 12 players. The rest were changed around so many times, I lost track.

Here are the pieces I contributed:

David Musil Misses the Cut – I put together a short defence piece on the young rear-guard, who I thought should’ve been in the top 25.

Jujhar Khaira (#22) – I’m really pulling for this guy, but he hasn’t progressed as well as we’d like. Hopefully he has a healthy season and can snag some more ice-time in Bakersfield.

Jordan Oesterle (#11) – The C&B crew really likes him, which will mean he gets dealt for nothing just as he becomes a full-time NHLer.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (#2) – The young pivot tied for second with Taylor Hall. I think very highly of both players, but value centers a lot more. Advantage: RNH.

All articles pertaining to the Top 25 Under 25 series can be found here.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Training Camp and Final Roster

/ sunilagni / 4 Comments

11189242This season can’t start soon enough. We’ve spent so much time speculating on line combinations, player acquisitions and realistic expectations this summer. I think most of us are ready for some meaningful hockey.

Aside from the addition of Connor McDavid, I think the best thing going for the Oilers is the coaching staff. McLellan has really taken control of the team, and I really do think the club will push for wins rather than continuous development. Part of this is also the new GM and the franchise’s renewed commitment to success. As much as we harp on Eakins, Nelson and even Kreuger, I think it was obvious that management (and ownership) was more focussed on development rather than actual wins.

The only reason I like following the annual training camp is to see which player will get the most written about them. This year, it’s been Anton Slepyshev, who really has impressed over the past few weeks. I’m not convinced that he’ll be a full time NHL player this coming season, but I don’t think he’s far off either. Last season, Jujhar Khaira, Bogdan Yakimov and Vladimir Tkachev got a lot of attention. The first two didn’t do a whole lot in this year’s training camp, while Tkachev went undrafted.

The key thing to remember is that training camp really is for the “Group A” guys to get going and for the “Group B” guys to demonstrate they haven’t regressed in any way. If I’m management, I need the AHL bound players to show well in camp and give some assurance that the development system is working. Very rarely do we see someone make the team out of training camp, and when they do, they don’t seem to last long and remain as a fringe player. Patrick Thoresen and Lennart Petrell come to mind.

The roster is starting to take shape now that a number of players have been shipped out. Here’s my guess for the opening night:

Hall McDavid Purcell
Pouliot RNH Eberle
Draisaitl Lander Yakupov
Korpikoski Letestu Hendricks

I’d much rather see Draisaitl start and finish in Bakersfield this coming season, but he appears to be in McLellan’s plans. If he stays, my concern is that he’ll be developed somewhat on-the-fly as a center, whereas a stint in the AHL would be beneficial for his development. He’s been outstanding over the past few weeks, and will likely be used the same way Pavelski was in San Jose: paired with another center but taking faceoffs in specific situations.

And the uhh…defence:

Sekera Fayne
Klefbom Schultz
Reinhart Nikitin

Not good enough in my opinion. What’s frustrating is that there were options this summer, but instead Chiarelli shipped out Marincin, overpaid for Reinhart and brought in Gryba. Things might be okay if Schultz and Nikitin bounce back, but the club is taking a risk with this group. It’ll be interesting to see how McLellan matches his defence pairings with the forward line and which 5-man units get favorable zone starts.