Adjusted Save Percentage, developed and published by War on Ice, is a very well thought out stat, and I’ve relied on it heavily the past few weeks looking at goalies. Darcy put together a fantastic post recently that looked into the history of the available goalies and found some interesting stuff. Highly recommend checking out his assessment.

I decided to use Darcy’s list of goalies and focus on their percentage of Quality Starts over the past five years. I’ve also included the number of games started in parentheses. Please note, QS% relies on traditional save percentage data (not adjusted) and factors in all situations (even-strength, powerplay, penalty kill).

From Hockey Abstract:

In order to record a Quality Start, the starting goalie must stop at least a league average number of shots (typically 91.3% prior to 2009-10, and 91.7% since), or play at least as well as a replacement-level goalie (88.5%) while allowing two goals or fewer.

The average QS% is 0.530, with anything lower than 0.500 being pretty bad. Having a QS% above 0.600 is very good (Source: Hockey Reference). More on Quality Starts can be found on Habs Eyes on the Prize.

• Antti Niemi is a good to average goalie, but he’s too old at this point to invest in. He’ll get paid this summer, but I don’t expect him to get better with age..it just does not  happen.
• Look at that: Dubnyk was right around the average QS% until that horrendous 2013/14 season. Glad to see he has bounced back.
• Jhonas Enroth has done well historically, but his value may have taken a hit this past season. This guy has to be a legit target for a number of teams.
• Ah, and there’s our good friend Michal Neuvirth. He’s only 26 and has put up some nice numbers over the past three years but hasn’t started a lot.

• I included Ben Scrivens since he’s penciled in, at this point, to be the backup next season.
• Guys like Annti Raanta and Martin Jones have talent, but just haven’t had enough experience, in my opinion, to make a reasonable bet on.
• Brian Elliot has been pretty steady when it comes to QS%, but his adjusted save percentages have been all over the map historically.
• Crawford, Howard, Lehtonen and Anderson are getting up there in age, but they’ve been playing well recently. Their current clubs are going to have to make changes because of the cap, making for an interesting off-season.
• Jonathan Bernier is another interesting goalie. He’s put up decent numbers and is only 26. He’d be at the top of my wish list.
• Robin Lehner is another good, young prospect, but I’d be concerned about his health as he’s recovering from a significant concussion. At this point, the Oilers need a legit starter or someone that has enough experience to push for a starting position. Worth noting that he along with Devan Dubnyk and Eddie Lack were impacted by the rule changes around stick length in 2013.

Between what I’ve read and what Darcy has put together, I really don’t know what to think anymore. I’d stick with Scrivens as the backup as I think he can bounce back, similar to other goalies in the past. The starting position has to go to someone that’s in their prime (26-30) and has at least 300 games of NHL experience. I don’t like the idea of over spending on goaltending, so Niemi, to me, is out of the question. If a trade can’t be made to acquire someone like Corey Crawford or Jonathan Bernier, the Oilers may have to push hard for Devan Dubnyk or sign Michal Neuvirth or Enroth to value contracts. Lots of options, so here’s hoping Chiarelli takes a “measured approach”.

Source: Edmonton Oilers

I’m of the mindset that having a young goalie with starter potential would be a smart move by the Oilers. Initially, I thought a goalie like Cam Talbot or Martin Jones, who are currently serving as backups, would be smart acquisitions, similar to how the Leafs acquired Jonathan Bernier in June of 2013 for a second round pick. If a goalie has been successful at the AHL level and has shown well in a limited role at the NHL level, that to me is good enough to warrant at least an assessment.

Alex Thomas, who does excellent work at the Oilers Rig, recently put a case together for acquiring Cam Talbot from the Rangers. The 27 year old played well while Lundqvist recovered from an injury. But his stats and style of play, to me, aren’t anything outstanding. In fact, his numbers at the NHL level and other leagues are somewhat similar to that of current Oilers netminder Ben Scrivens.

Here’s their NHL seasons to date. (Source: Hockey Reference)

Here’s a summary of each netminders overall stats by league:

Both goalies have come through the college ranks and have performed well at the AHL level. There’s no denying that they both have potential to be decent at the NHL level. The issue for Oilers fans is that Scrivens faltered badly last year in his first real attempt to be a starter, while Talbot appears to be ready for his first shot.

In my opinion, if you want a “goalie with potential” for next season, stick with Ben Scrivens. Two reasons:

One, Scrivens won’t cost you anything. He”ll make a very reasonable $2.3 million next year becoming a free agent in July of 2016 (Source: NHL Numbers). Talbot, on the other hand, will likely cost the Oilers either a draft pick or a young prospect in return. Goalies are not worth first round picks. And goalies are not worth high end prospects like Nail Yakupov. Nothing of that calibre should be in play. Goalies should never command that kind of return as there are a limited number of goalie jobs and more than enough professional goalies available. If the price for Talbot is high, the Oilers could always consider trading for similar “starter potential” goalies like Martin Jones, Antti Raanta or Andrei Vasilevskiy. But it’d be much wiser to spend existing assets on positions that are harder to fill such as defence.

Secondly, I’m fairly confident that Scrivens will bounce back from his horrific 2014/2015 season. Good to average goalies like Scrivens are susceptible to bad seasons, and typically get back to their standard level of performance soon after. We know Scrivens can play at the AHL level and he has done well in the three seasons prior at the NHL level.

One stat that’s worth paying attention to is the percentage of quality starts. Here’s a summary of the metric from from Habs Eyes on the Prize:

A Quality Start (QS) is a goaltending statistic that is awarded to a goaltender who gave his team a reasonable chance to win a game. This is quantified by the goaltender’s save percentage within an individual game itself and comparing it to the league standards for an average SV%, and the established ‘replacement level’ SV% if the goalie faces a low amount of shots faced in a given game (usually less than 20). If a goalie outperforms the league average save percentage, he is awarded a quality start. Additionally, a goalie is awarded a quality start if he allows 2 goals or less while keeping his save percentage above the expected performance of a replacement level goaltender.

Scrivens finished with a QS% of 0.396 this past season, which was second last among goalies who played a minimum of 20 games. In last place: Victor Fasth at 0.375. The league average for goalies is around 0.530. Worth noting that Scrivens has had a respectable QS% in the past. (Souce: Hockey Abstract).

The good news is that other good goalies have had horrific seasons similar to Scrivens’ 2014/2015 campaign. Of those that finished with a QS% below 0.400 since 2007, the vast majority have bounced back and managed to have decent careers. A few of the notables.

Obviously, each goalie had their own unique situation, and there are always 1,001 factors that impact goalie performance. But the general trend is that goalies who have a poor QS% one year, tend to bounce back soon after. Scrivens has his work cut out for him this summer if he wants to improve. But in my mind, the Oilers should retain him as their “goalie-with-potential” paired with an established netminder this coming season, and avoid sending away assets for guys like Cam Talbot.