Quality Starts Percentage

neuvirth

Adjusted Save Percentage, developed and published by War on Ice, is a very well thought out stat, and I’ve relied on it heavily the past few weeks looking at goalies. Darcy put together a fantastic post recently that looked into the history of the available goalies and found some interesting stuff. Highly recommend checking out his assessment.

I decided to use Darcy’s list of goalies and focus on their percentage of Quality Starts over the past five years. I’ve also included the number of games started in parentheses. Please note, QS% relies on traditional save percentage data (not adjusted) and factors in all situations (even-strength, powerplay, penalty kill).

From Hockey Abstract:

In order to record a Quality Start, the starting goalie must stop at least a league average number of shots (typically 91.3% prior to 2009-10, and 91.7% since), or play at least as well as a replacement-level goalie (88.5%) while allowing two goals or fewer.

The average QS% is 0.530, with anything lower than 0.500 being pretty bad. Having a QS% above 0.600 is very good (Source: Hockey Reference). More on Quality Starts can be found on Habs Eyes on the Prize.

Unrestricted Free Agents
Player Age 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Antti Niemi 31 0.617 (60) 0.529 (68) 0.674 (43) 0.469 (64) 0.542 (59)
Devan Dubnyk 28 0.545 (33) 0.548 (42) 0.541 (37) 0.355 (31) 0.685 (54)
Jhonas Enroth 26 0.538 (13) 0.682 (22) 0.778 (9) 0.538 (26) 0.429 (42)
Karri Ramo 28 0.514 (37) 0.452 (31)
Michal Neuvirth 26 0.477 (44) 0.500 (30) 0.583 (12) 0.692 (13) 0.531 (32)
  • Antti Niemi is a good to average goalie, but he’s too old at this point to invest in. He’ll get paid this summer, but I don’t expect him to get better with age..it just does not  happen.
  • Look at that: Dubnyk was right around the average QS% until that horrendous 2013/14 season. Glad to see he has bounced back.
  • Jhonas Enroth has done well historically, but his value may have taken a hit this past season. This guy has to be a legit target for a number of teams.
  • Ah, and there’s our good friend Michal Neuvirth. He’s only 26 and has put up some nice numbers over the past three years but hasn’t started a lot.
Goalies Under Contract Who Could Be Acquired
Player Age 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Antti Raanta 25 0.545 (22) 0.667 (12)
Ben Scrivens 28 0.455 (11) 0.588 (17) 0.629 (35) 0.373 (51)
Brian Elliott 29 0.333 (51) 0.778 (36) 0.600 (20) 0.600 (25) 0.600 (45)
Cam Talbot 27 0.842 (19) 0.500 (34)
Corey Crawford 30 0.618 (55) 0.491 (55) 0.679 (28) 0.554 (56) 0.696 (56)
Craig Anderson 33 0.592 (49) 0.567 (60) 0.708 (24) 0.500 (52) 0.571 (35)
Jimmy Howard 30 0.476 (63) 0.614 (57) 0.619 (42) 0.500 (50) 0.531 (49)
Jonas Hiller 32 0.565 (46) 0.542 (72) 0.56 (25) 0.540 (50) 0.512 (43)
Jonathan Bernier 26 0.636 (22) 0.462 (13) 0.667 (12) 0.612 (49) 0.481 (54)
Jonathan Quick 29 0.617 (60) 0.632 (68) 0.556 (36) 0.531 (49) 0.58 (69)
Kari Lehtonen 31 0.559 (68) 0.610 (59) 0.600 (35) 0.563 (64) 0.462 (65)
Martin Jones 25 0.722 (18) 0.455 (11)
Robin Lehner 23 0.200 (5) 0.800 (5) 0.833 (12) 0.633 (30) 0.458 (24)
  • I included Ben Scrivens since he’s penciled in, at this point, to be the backup next season.
  • Guys like Annti Raanta and Martin Jones have talent, but just haven’t had enough experience, in my opinion, to make a reasonable bet on.
  • Brian Elliot has been pretty steady when it comes to QS%, but his adjusted save percentages have been all over the map historically.
  • Crawford, Howard, Lehtonen and Anderson are getting up there in age, but they’ve been playing well recently. Their current clubs are going to have to make changes because of the cap, making for an interesting off-season.
  • Jonathan Bernier is another interesting goalie. He’s put up decent numbers and is only 26. He’d be at the top of my wish list.
  • Robin Lehner is another good, young prospect, but I’d be concerned about his health as he’s recovering from a significant concussion. At this point, the Oilers need a legit starter or someone that has enough experience to push for a starting position. Worth noting that he along with Devan Dubnyk and Eddie Lack were impacted by the rule changes around stick length in 2013.

Between what I’ve read and what Darcy has put together, I really don’t know what to think anymore. I’d stick with Scrivens as the backup as I think he can bounce back, similar to other goalies in the past. The starting position has to go to someone that’s in their prime (26-30) and has at least 300 games of NHL experience. I don’t like the idea of over spending on goaltending, so Niemi, to me, is out of the question. If a trade can’t be made to acquire someone like Corey Crawford or Jonathan Bernier, the Oilers may have to push hard for Devan Dubnyk or sign Michal Neuvirth or Enroth to value contracts. Lots of options, so here’s hoping Chiarelli takes a “measured approach”.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s