The Edmonton Oilers open their post-season on Monday night against the Anaheim Ducks and have a good chance of doing some damage at least in the first two rounds.

None of the teams in the Pacific were a significant threat in the regular season, with all five playoff-bound teams finishing between anywhere between 13^th and 20^th (!) overall in points percentage. It was pretty bad, but you have to appreciate the chaos it’s going to cause, especially with one of the better Central division teams being eliminated in the first round.

This Oilers first round matchup against the Ducks is pretty even for the most part. The Oilers did win the season series going 2-1 in three games, outscoring Anaheim 16-12. Edmonton did have a slight edge in shot-share metrics over those three games at even-strength, doing a slightly better job at controlling the flow of play (50.59% Corsi For percentage) and did generate a higher share of scoring chances (53.88% Expected Goals For percentage).

And as we saw in my last post, both teams were fairly close to one another in regular-season results as well as underlying shot-share numbers at even-strength. And both teams also had about the same level of goaltending – which was not very good. Even in the last twenty give games of the season, or since the Olympic break, both teams ranked near the bottom of the league. So it’s hard to say who has the real edge in net. Of the 66 goalies who played at least 20 games this season, Ingram ranked 40^th with a 0.900 save percentage, while Dostal ranked 43^rd with 0.899. Ingram also ranked 40^th in goal-saved above average (GSAA) with -2.46, while Dostal ranked 45^th with -6.67. Ingram has played fewer games this season than Dostal (32 compared to 46), which I think gives him a slight edge – but this area feels like a toss up.

One area Edmonton improved upon over the course of the season was overall defensive play at even-strength, specifically around preventing high danger scoring chances against. Prior to the Olympic break, the Oilers rate of expected goals against was 2.70, which ranked 23^rd in the league. The team did shave this down to 2.40 after the Olympic break, which moved them into seventh best overall. Anaheim went the opposite direction. They were 27^th overall with 2.79 expected goals against before the break, and dropped down to  30^th after the break with 3.26.

The one area where the Oilers have a clear advantage over Anaheim is special teams. Edmonton finished the regular season with the best powerplay in the league and were consistently generating plenty of shots and scoring chances. Anaheim on the other hand ranked 23^rd overall, with their rates of shots and chances ranking in the bottom third of the league. Anaheim, similar to Edmonton, did struggle killing penalties this season, allowing the seventh highest rate of goals against. While they did an okay job at preventing shots and chances, it was really their goaltending that let them down finishing 25^th in team save percentage when shorthanded. Anaheim also took the sixth highest rate of penalties this season, so Edmonton should get some opportunities (unless of course the referees decide to do some match-fixing/”game management”). Seriously though, special team opportunities don’t happen often in the playoffs, especially as you get deeper into a series. But when they do happen, it’s typically in a high-stake situation, and the Oilers have demonstrated their ability to consistently take advantage.

Anaheim has plenty of talent, and I do still think their goaltending is better than it’s shown in the regular season. There’s also the issue of Edmonton’s depth issues and not doing so well when their elite players are on the bench. But the Oilers do have the edge with game-breaking talent and a cluster of players who have seen some things the last few seasons now. In a matchup where the margins are thin and the board looks pretty evenly set, that combination—along with elite special teams—may be enough to get Edmonton through to the next round.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Appendix: Anaheim Ducks skater results, 2025/26 regular season