Quite the hole the Edmonton Oilers have dug themselves into, having now lost three straight games to the Anaheim Ducks. And unsurprisingly, the penalty kill sits at the center of the problem.
In my end‑of‑season post, I summarized the Oilers’ penalty kill as sketchy, and the numbers supported that. They finished the regular season with the 12th‑highest rate of goals against while short‑handed (8.16 per hour). That result was largely driven by poor underlying process – Edmonton allowed the ninth‑highest rate of shots against (54.64 per hour) and the ninth‑highest rate of expected goals against (9.57). Put another way, this team struggled to disrupt opposing power plays and consistently failed to keep the puck out of high‑danger areas.
Now that weakness has been fully exposed in the postseason—and things have gone from bad to worse, and could cost them another critical season. Through just 17 minutes of penalty‑kill time against the Ducks, the Oilers have surrendered six power‑play goals. That translates to a goals‑against rate north of 20(!) per hour. Once again, the underlying numbers tell the same story: a massive spike in shots against (89.83 per hour) and expected goals against (14.87 per hour). The Ducks are basically having no issues generating chances.
Worth noting that the penalty kill had been a recurring concern throughout the regular season, particularly after Adam Henrique went down with injury for an extended stretch. The 34‑year‑old centre was a significant contributor short‑handed, and his absence was felt. Now that he’s injured again, the drop‑off is even more pronounced.
What I also didn’t realize was just how poorly the Oilers penalty kill performed late in the regular season, particularly in terms of the volume and quality of scoring chances allowed.
The chart below shows the Oilers’ expected goals against per hour on the penalty kill across the regular season, broken into rolling five‑game segments. The goal was to determine whether Edmonton had previously allowed scoring‑chance rates comparable to what we’re now seeing against Anaheim. I suspected they had—but I didn’t realize just how severe the spike was over the final few weeks of the season.
Given those trends, you’d expect the coaching staff to have been aware of this vulnerability heading into the playoffs. Either they weren’t aware of the data or they chose not to address it with urgency. Neither explanation reflects particularly well on any of them – specifically Knoblauch and Mark Stuart.
After seeing this data laid out, it’s hard to be completely surprised that the Oilers now find themselves down 3–1 in the series. What’s most alarming is that this feels entirely preventable—an issue that was clearly brewing long before game one of the post-season.
The Edmonton Oilers open their post-season on Monday night against the Anaheim Ducks and have a good chance of doing some damage at least in the first two rounds.
None of the teams in the Pacific were a significant threat in the regular season, with all five playoff-bound teams finishing between anywhere between 13th and 20th (!) overall in points percentage. It was pretty bad, but you have to appreciate the chaos it’s going to cause, especially with one of the better Central division teams being eliminated in the first round.
This Oilers first round matchup against the Ducks is pretty even for the most part. The Oilers did win the season series going 2-1 in three games, outscoring Anaheim 16-12. Edmonton did have a slight edge in shot-share metrics over those three games at even-strength, doing a slightly better job at controlling the flow of play (50.59% Corsi For percentage) and did generate a higher share of scoring chances (53.88% Expected Goals For percentage).
And as we saw in my last post, both teams were fairly close to one another in regular-season results as well as underlying shot-share numbers at even-strength. And both teams also had about the same level of goaltending – which was not very good. Even in the last twenty give games of the season, or since the Olympic break, both teams ranked near the bottom of the league. So it’s hard to say who has the real edge in net. Of the 66 goalies who played at least 20 games this season, Ingram ranked 40th with a 0.900 save percentage, while Dostal ranked 43rd with 0.899. Ingram also ranked 40th in goal-saved above average (GSAA) with -2.46, while Dostal ranked 45th with -6.67. Ingram has played fewer games this season than Dostal (32 compared to 46), which I think gives him a slight edge – but this area feels like a toss up.
One area Edmonton improved upon over the course of the season was overall defensive play at even-strength, specifically around preventing high danger scoring chances against. Prior to the Olympic break, the Oilers rate of expected goals against was 2.70, which ranked 23rd in the league. The team did shave this down to 2.40 after the Olympic break, which moved them into seventh best overall. Anaheim went the opposite direction. They were 27th overall with 2.79 expected goals against before the break, and dropped down to 30th after the break with 3.26.
The one area where the Oilers have a clear advantage over Anaheim is special teams. Edmonton finished the regular season with the best powerplay in the league and were consistently generating plenty of shots and scoring chances. Anaheim on the other hand ranked 23rd overall, with their rates of shots and chances ranking in the bottom third of the league. Anaheim, similar to Edmonton, did struggle killing penalties this season, allowing the seventh highest rate of goals against. While they did an okay job at preventing shots and chances, it was really their goaltending that let them down finishing 25th in team save percentage when shorthanded. Anaheim also took the sixth highest rate of penalties this season, so Edmonton should get some opportunities (unless of course the referees decide to do some match-fixing/”game management”). Seriously though, special team opportunities don’t happen often in the playoffs, especially as you get deeper into a series. But when they do happen, it’s typically in a high-stake situation, and the Oilers have demonstrated their ability to consistently take advantage.
Anaheim has plenty of talent, and I do still think their goaltending is better than it’s shown in the regular season. There’s also the issue of Edmonton’s depth issues and not doing so well when their elite players are on the bench. But the Oilers do have the edge with game-breaking talent and a cluster of players who have seen some things the last few seasons now. In a matchup where the margins are thin and the board looks pretty evenly set, that combination—along with elite special teams—may be enough to get Edmonton through to the next round.
The Edmonton Oilers 2025/26 regular season was a disappointing one as they finished with only 93 points – a 0.567 points percentage that ranked 14th in the league. Considering the previous five straight seasons of having a points percentage above 0.600, including four (kinda five) straight 100-pont seasons – this is definitely a drop off. But thanks to a weak conference, and especially a weak Pacific division where all five Pacific division playoff teams were below 0.600 and ranked 13th or lower in the league, the Oilers still managed to secure home ice advantage in the playoffs. Wild.
The Oilers lack of success was largely driven by their mediocre play at even-strength (5v5). Their -14 goal-differential and 48 percent goal-share ranked 20th in the league, which wasn’t surprising considering their Corsi For percentage barely broke even. Their share of scoring chances was a little better, and ranked in the top ten league-wide, but there was a noticeable drop off from previous seasons when they would be near the top of the league when it came to expected goal metrics.
That’s probably what’s the most troubling part about the Oilers regular season. Last year, they also had a negative goal differential at 5v5, but they were at least posting exceptional shot-share numbers, which meant the positive results were eventually going to come. This year however, it’s hard to have that same level of confidence, especially when you consider the team’s shot-share metrics are all around the 47 percent mark when McDavid or Draisaitl weren’t on the ice. The results have been just ghastly with the team posting a -31 goal differential when one of the glimmer twins aren’t deployed.
Here’s a quick look at the Oilers’ skaters, and their on-ice numbers sorted by ice time. Included is each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. And for additional context, each player’s on-ice PDO is captured. A basic heat map is applied to show how players compare within their cohort. The key takeaway here is that the Oilers top six group is pretty good, and the rest are a bunch of blots ready to be exploited. Dickinson hasn’t been the solution for the bottom six group, and it’s hard to tell who can step up in the playoffs. The defence group has one solid pairing and the rest is a spot of bother.
The other factor to consider is the just-barely-average goaltending the Oilers are heading into the playoffs with – with Ingram taking the starter role. This is definitely an upgrade from previous seasons and bodes well for the team. But it’s a little concerning that the teams 5v5 save percentage was 88.84 percent (dead last in the league) over the course of the full season, and around the same mark over the final twenty-five games. Ingram just needs to be average, and Jarry should hopefully not see much ice time.
Quick notes on special teams. The Oilers powerplay finished the season as the league’s best, which is no surprise, scoring 11.88 goals per hour. This was largely driven by their high rate of shots and chances, which all ranked at the top. The penalty kill is where things are a little sketchy. The team finished 21st overall, allowing 8.16 goals against per hour. The team had trouble preventing shots and chances (all ranking in the bottom third of the league) and the goaltending was around league average levels. What’s interesting is that the team did do a better job at preventing shots at even-strength over the final stretch of the season, so it’s a little odd that this focus on defensive play didn’t translate to special teams.
Below are the final even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-differential results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.
Again, it was a giant, chaotic joke of a Pacific division/western conference/NHL. All five Pacific teams that made the playoffs had a lower points percentage than the Washington, who had the 12th best points percentage in the league (0.579), but still missed the playoffs. Los Angeles ranked 20th in the league with 0.549 and made it. Detroit, Long Island and Columbus all had better points percentages than Los Angeles and all missed the playoffs.
Vegas, Edmonton and Anaheim all had issues in net, so the results should probably have been better considering their ability to control the flow of play. What’s interesting is that over the course of the season, there wasn’t a lot of movement among the teams, and we had a good sense of who would make it pretty early on. The teams that did catch fire and media attention often fizzled out as their underling numbers were often poor. So there really wasn’t much excitement, especially with the Pacific being so, so bad.
For reference, I’ve also put the table together for the eastern conference. Carolina, Tampa Bay and Ottawa all posted strong shot-share numbers, but it appears they’ve also had some goaltending issues. Buffalo obviously did well, but I do wonder if we see them struggle considering their shot-share numbers weren’t great and they rode the PDO pony a bit. Same with Montreal. Boston appears a little fraudulent, as does Philadelphia, so I don’t think they’ll get very far.
Obviously pulling for Edmonton because of the smart cats they have in the front office, but I’m thinking it’ll be Colorado coming out of the west and likely Carolina and Uncle Dennis representing the east.
Pretty great playoff run for the Edmonton Oilers, coming only a couple goals away from a championship. There’s an incredible amount of luck involved with making it this far, so it’s hard to feel overly disappointed in the outcome. Game sevens can go either way. And while the Oilers did everything they could to get to that spot, including outscoring the Panthers 18 to 5 between games four and six, and having the best player in the world on the roster, there were never any guarantees. That’s how life goes sometimes.
The hope now is that the Oilers management and coaching staff can identify and address their weaknesses, many of which were exposed at different points during the playoffs. And put themselves in an even better position to contend for a title next year, and hopefully the year after. It’s going to require a lot of creativity and courage to make improvements for next season. And hopefully the club is ready to be a little more ruthless than the previous general manager, especially when it comes to managing the cap and constructing the roster.
Before getting into specific areas and players, let’s look at the team-level issues that arose during the playoff run. The biggest one being the drop off in even-strength goal scoring when McDavid wasn’t on the ice.
In the 435 minutes with McDavid on the ice, the Oilers posted excellent shot-share numbers and a +14 goal-differential (28 goals for, 14 goals against). But in the 788 minutes without him, the team struggled to outshoot opponents and had a -13 goal-differential (25 goals for, 38 goals against). Because of these poor results, the Oilers as a team finished the post-season with only a +1 goal-differential at even-strength.
Compare these results with the on-ice, off-ice numbers of Crosby when the Penguins won back-to-back cups in 2016 and 2017. In both playoff runs, the Penguins outscored their opponents without their Crosby on the ice at even-strength, posting a +10 goal-differential in 2016 and a +5 goal-differential in 2017, getting 5v5 contributions from across the roster. In the 2016 playoff run, Crosby himself even had a negative on-ice goal-differential. Very possible that this could happen to McDavid in the future, and the Oilers need to recognize and address this very real possibility if they want to increase their odds of winning championships.
Here’s a final summary of how the Oilers skaters performed at even-strength (5v5) during the post-season, split between forwards and defencemen and sorted by time on ice. A basic heatmap has been applied to each metric to show how each skater’s on-ice numbers compared to their teammates.
While the Oilers depth players had some big goals and made a significant contribution on the penalty kill, it’s clear the Oilers need to do a better job at adding skill and finishing talent to their group of forwards. And while I understand why the team might want to bring back guys like Henrique, Janmark and Brown for next season, I don’t think they’ll be able to sustain their success over the long run. All three were posting poor on-ice shot share numbers at even-strength and higher than normal PDO’s. I also wouldn’t quit on guys like McLeod and Foegele. Both struggled at times during the playoffs, but I think it’s obvious they need a first-shot scorer type on their line as neither has consistent finishing ability. Holloway has to be part of the solution next year if he can stay healthy.
The other issue was on the Oilers backend. The Bouchard and Ekholm pairing played at an elite level, regardless of who their linemates were and who they played against. Unfortunately, the Oilers didn’t have a steady second pairing, despite spending significant dollars on those positions. Nurse and Ceci, for the third year in a row, posted terrible on-ice numbers in the post-season, spending a lot of time in their own zone and posting negative goal differentials. Nurse and Ceci’s flaws have been well-documented, yet there was no desire from management to find a solution.
Compounding matters is how much of a negative impact Ceci had on star players during the playoffs, especially on Leon Draisaitl. The two played 126 minutes at even-strength together during the playoffs (and away from McDavid). And in that time, the Oilers posted a Corsi For percentage of 36 percent and an Expected Goals For percentage of only 29%. And their goal-differential together was -6 (a 25 percent goal-share). When Draisaitl was away from Ceci (and McDavid), his on-ice Corsi For percentage shot up to 52 percent and his Expected Goals For percentage was 59 percent. His on-ice goal differential was +2 (a 56 percent goal-share). It’s hard enough for star players to take on tough competition on a nightly basis. Your own players, especially at that cap hit, can’t be another barrier that your stars have to overcome.
And while I did think Broberg took some positive steps in the playoffs and earned some regular playing time next season, I would temper my expectations. He was on the ice for a lot of shots against at even-strength and had one of the highest PDO’s on the team, indicating again that his success in the small sample size might not be sustainable.
It also became very apparent by the final round that the Oilers were dealing with significant injuries across their roster. I understand that the playoffs are a grind and that it’s normal for players to play through injuries. But I do wonder what else management can do to keep players fresh for the playoffs and help them avoid the injuries in the first place. Does it mean aggressively managing the workload of star players, and giving them regular maintenance days during the regular season? Or capping the number of games the goaltender and specific players can play? Or, using Kane as an example, should the team be using the LTIR option more liberally and having better reserve players to take on those minutes? He was clearly hurt during the regular season, but the Oilers were reluctant to take him out of the lineup. And one of the driving factors for the injuries and potential burnout is the terrible start they had this past season. Making up ground in the west is tough, and there were probably times when players needed time off but felt compelled to push through to collect as many standing points as possible.
A lot to look forward to this summer, including the appointment of a new general manager, the draft and free agency. It’s a critical juncture for the franchise when you consider what they accomplished in the playoffs, the lofty expectations, and what the glaring needs are – specifically on the right-defence and the wings up front. A new approach to salary cap management and roster construction is needed to remain competitive. And it has to start right away.
It’s been a poor start for the Edmonton Oilers in their championship series against the Florida Panthers. After the first two games, they’ve been outscored 7-1 in all situations, with their only goal being scored by Matias Ekholm at four-on-four in game two. At even-strength (5v5), the Panthers have outscored the Oilers 4-0 so far, and have a powerplay goal on top of that. Their other two goals have been on an empty net.
The Oilers inability to score at even-strength (5v5) is definitely surprising considering the talent they have on the roster and the success they’ve had during the regular season. They finished first in the league in shots per hour with 32.87 and third in goals per hour with 2.90. Unfortunately, this level of production hasn’t carried over to the post-season, which isn’t surprising. We know teams ramp up their defensive play and intensity in the playoffs, and the Oilers are 20 games into a long playoff run. At this point, the Oilers are generating 25.92 shot per hour and have scored at a rate of 2.36 goals per hour. Against Florida, the Oilers are so far generating 25.44 shots per hour and zero goals.
Edmonton Oilers (5v5)
Shots per hour
Goals per hour
Shooting%
vs Los Angeles
26.08
2.92
11.21
vs Vancouver
27.39
2.86
10.46
vs Dallas
23.88
2.02
8.46
Above is a quick snapshot of how the Oilers performed in the previous three rounds of the playoffs. What stands out is that as the Oilers have progressed deeper into the playoffs, their rate of shots per hour and their team shooting percentage has gradually declined. Against Los Angeles, they posted a shooting percentage of 11.21 percent, well above their regular season shooting percentage of 8.81 percent. But against Dallas, it slipped to 8.46 percent, and was part of the reason why they were outscored by Dallas at even-strength.
Breaking out the Oilers team’s shooting percentage over rolling five-games, we see that heading into the series against Florida, they were definitely in a downward trend. It still doesn’t explain not being able to score a single even-strength (5v5) goal. But it does indicate that the Oilers are hitting a wall, especially when McDavid isn’t on the ice.
Edmonton Oilers (5v5)
Shooting% with McDavid
Shooting% without McDavid
vs Los Angeles
14.63
9.09
vs Vancouver
12.70
8.89
vs Dallas
11.48
5.80
The Oilers performance and results without their captain at 5v5 this post-season has flown under the radar a bit as the power play and penalty kill has been bailing the team out. In the first three rounds of the playoffs, the Oilers have been outscored 18-26 without McDavid, a goal-share of only 40.91 percent. This is largely driven by the fact that their Corsi For percentage has been 45.81 percent and their Expected Goals for percentage has been 44.82 percent. Combine this with their poor shooting percentage, especially in the last round against Dallas, and it’s no surprise that McDavid is being relied on to carry the load again. Goal-scoring from depth players is critical in the post-season, and really needed to be addressed at the trade deadline when there were options available.
One last thought, this one on the Oilers powerplay. The Panthers have done a really nice job limiting the Oilers shots and scoring chances. In the two games so far, the Oilers have only generated seven shots on goal in 13 powerplay minutes (31.19 shots per hour), which is wild considering they generated 79.66 shots per hour in the previous three rounds and 62.33 per hour in the regular season. When the Oilers have had trouble scoring with the man-advantage in the past, it was easy to stay optimistic because they’d still be generating lots of shots and scoring chances. So you knew it was a matter of time before the results came around. That doesn’t appear to be the case any more. Which makes solving their even-strength issues even more critical.
Got to talk Oilers with @jessica_talks on CBC Radio Active this afternoon. Covered the lack of offence in the first two games, what the Oilers need to address and reasons for optimism.https://t.co/v8Mq8drLSs
The SuperFan 