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Edmonton’s penalty kill was bound to break

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Quite the hole the Edmonton Oilers have dug themselves into, having now lost three straight games to the Anaheim Ducks. And unsurprisingly, the penalty kill sits at the center of the problem.

In my end‑of‑season post, I summarized the Oilers’ penalty kill as sketchy, and the numbers supported that. They finished the regular season with the 12th‑highest rate of goals against while short‑handed (8.16 per hour). That result was largely driven by poor underlying process – Edmonton allowed the ninth‑highest rate of shots against (54.64 per hour) and the ninth‑highest rate of expected goals against (9.57). Put another way, this team struggled to disrupt opposing power plays and consistently failed to keep the puck out of high‑danger areas.

Now that weakness has been fully exposed in the postseason—and things have gone from bad to worse, and could cost them another critical season. Through just 17 minutes of penalty‑kill time against the Ducks, the Oilers have surrendered six power‑play goals. That translates to a goals‑against rate north of 20(!) per hour. Once again, the underlying numbers tell the same story: a massive spike in shots against (89.83 per hour) and expected goals against (14.87 per hour). The Ducks are basically having no issues generating chances.

Worth noting that the penalty kill had been a recurring concern throughout the regular season, particularly after Adam Henrique went down with injury for an extended stretch. The 34‑year‑old centre was a significant contributor short‑handed, and his absence was felt. Now that he’s injured again, the drop‑off is even more pronounced.

What I also didn’t realize was just how poorly the Oilers penalty kill performed late in the regular season, particularly in terms of the volume and quality of scoring chances allowed.

The chart below shows the Oilers’ expected goals against per hour on the penalty kill across the regular season, broken into rolling five‑game segments. The goal was to determine whether Edmonton had previously allowed scoring‑chance rates comparable to what we’re now seeing against Anaheim. I suspected they had—but I didn’t realize just how severe the spike was over the final few weeks of the season.

Given those trends, you’d expect the coaching staff to have been aware of this vulnerability heading into the playoffs. Either they weren’t aware of the data or they chose not to address it with urgency. Neither explanation reflects particularly well on any of them – specifically Knoblauch and Mark Stuart.

After seeing this data laid out, it’s hard to be completely surprised that the Oilers now find themselves down 3–1 in the series. What’s most alarming is that this feels entirely preventable—an issue that was clearly brewing long before game one of the post-season.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

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Even board: Previewing the Oilers series against the Ducks

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The Edmonton Oilers open their post-season on Monday night against the Anaheim Ducks and have a good chance of doing some damage at least in the first two rounds.

None of the teams in the Pacific were a significant threat in the regular season, with all five playoff-bound teams finishing between anywhere between 13th and 20th (!) overall in points percentage. It was pretty bad, but you have to appreciate the chaos it’s going to cause, especially with one of the better Central division teams being eliminated in the first round.

This Oilers first round matchup against the Ducks is pretty even for the most part. The Oilers did win the season series going 2-1 in three games, outscoring Anaheim 16-12. Edmonton did have a slight edge in shot-share metrics over those three games at even-strength, doing a slightly better job at controlling the flow of play (50.59% Corsi For percentage) and did generate a higher share of scoring chances (53.88% Expected Goals For percentage).

And as we saw in my last post, both teams were fairly close to one another in regular-season results as well as underlying shot-share numbers at even-strength. And both teams also had about the same level of goaltending – which was not very good. Even in the last twenty give games of the season, or since the Olympic break, both teams ranked near the bottom of the league. So it’s hard to say who has the real edge in net. Of the 66 goalies who played at least 20 games this season, Ingram ranked 40th with a 0.900 save percentage, while Dostal ranked 43rd with 0.899. Ingram also ranked 40th in goal-saved above average (GSAA) with -2.46, while Dostal ranked 45th with -6.67. Ingram has played fewer games this season than Dostal (32 compared to 46), which I think gives him a slight edge – but this area feels like a toss up.

One area Edmonton improved upon over the course of the season was overall defensive play at even-strength, specifically around preventing high danger scoring chances against. Prior to the Olympic break, the Oilers rate of expected goals against was 2.70, which ranked 23rd in the league. The team did shave this down to 2.40 after the Olympic break, which moved them into seventh best overall. Anaheim went the opposite direction. They were 27th overall with 2.79 expected goals against before the break, and dropped down to  30th after the break with 3.26.

The one area where the Oilers have a clear advantage over Anaheim is special teams. Edmonton finished the regular season with the best powerplay in the league and were consistently generating plenty of shots and scoring chances. Anaheim on the other hand ranked 23rd overall, with their rates of shots and chances ranking in the bottom third of the league. Anaheim, similar to Edmonton, did struggle killing penalties this season, allowing the seventh highest rate of goals against. While they did an okay job at preventing shots and chances, it was really their goaltending that let them down finishing 25th in team save percentage when shorthanded. Anaheim also took the sixth highest rate of penalties this season, so Edmonton should get some opportunities (unless of course the referees decide to do some match-fixing/”game management”). Seriously though, special team opportunities don’t happen often in the playoffs, especially as you get deeper into a series. But when they do happen, it’s typically in a high-stake situation, and the Oilers have demonstrated their ability to consistently take advantage.

Anaheim has plenty of talent, and I do still think their goaltending is better than it’s shown in the regular season. There’s also the issue of Edmonton’s depth issues and not doing so well when their elite players are on the bench. But the Oilers do have the edge with game-breaking talent and a cluster of players who have seen some things the last few seasons now. In a matchup where the margins are thin and the board looks pretty evenly set, that combination—along with elite special teams—may be enough to get Edmonton through to the next round.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Appendix: Anaheim Ducks skater results, 2025/26 regular season

Slow your roll

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The Edmonton Oilers 2025/26 regular season was a disappointing one as they finished with only 93 points – a 0.567 points percentage that ranked 14th in the league. Considering the previous five straight seasons of having a points percentage above 0.600, including four (kinda five) straight 100-pont seasons – this is definitely a drop off. But thanks to a weak conference, and especially a weak Pacific division where all five Pacific division playoff teams were below 0.600 and ranked 13th or lower in the league, the Oilers still managed to secure home ice advantage in the playoffs. Wild.

The Oilers lack of success was largely driven by their mediocre play at even-strength (5v5). Their -14 goal-differential and 48 percent goal-share ranked 20th in the league, which wasn’t surprising considering their Corsi For percentage barely broke even. Their share of scoring chances was a little better, and ranked in the top ten league-wide, but there was a noticeable drop off from previous seasons when they would be near the top of the league when it came to expected goal metrics.

That’s probably what’s the most troubling part about the Oilers regular season. Last year, they also had a negative goal differential at 5v5, but they were at least posting exceptional shot-share numbers, which meant the positive results were eventually going to come. This year however, it’s hard to have that same level of confidence, especially when you consider the team’s shot-share metrics are all around the 47 percent mark when McDavid or Draisaitl weren’t on the ice. The results have been just ghastly with the team posting a -31 goal differential when one of the glimmer twins aren’t deployed.

Here’s a quick look at the Oilers’ skaters, and their on-ice numbers sorted by ice time. Included is each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. And for additional context, each player’s on-ice PDO is captured. A basic heat map is applied to show how players compare within their cohort. The key takeaway here is that the Oilers top six group is pretty good, and the rest are a bunch of blots ready to be exploited. Dickinson hasn’t been the solution for the bottom six group, and it’s hard to tell who can step up in the playoffs. The defence group has one solid pairing and the rest is a spot of bother.

The other factor to consider is the just-barely-average goaltending the Oilers are heading into the playoffs with – with Ingram taking the starter role. This is definitely an upgrade from previous seasons and bodes well for the team. But it’s a little concerning that the teams 5v5 save percentage was 88.84 percent (dead last in the league) over the course of the full season, and around the same mark over the final twenty-five games. Ingram just needs to be average, and Jarry should hopefully not see much ice time.

Quick notes on special teams. The Oilers powerplay finished the season as the league’s best, which is no surprise, scoring 11.88 goals per hour. This was largely driven by their high rate of shots and chances, which all ranked at the top. The penalty kill is where things are a little sketchy. The team finished 21st overall, allowing 8.16 goals against per hour. The team had trouble preventing shots and chances (all ranking in the bottom third of the league) and the goaltending was around league average levels. What’s interesting is that the team did do a better job at preventing shots at even-strength over the final stretch of the season, so it’s a little odd that this focus on defensive play didn’t translate to special teams.

Below are the final even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-differential results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

Again, it was a giant, chaotic joke of a Pacific division/western conference/NHL. All five Pacific teams that made the playoffs had a lower points percentage than the Washington, who had the 12th best points percentage in the league (0.579), but still missed the playoffs. Los Angeles ranked 20th in the league with 0.549 and made it. Detroit, Long Island and Columbus all had better points percentages than Los Angeles and all missed the playoffs.

Vegas, Edmonton and Anaheim all had issues in net, so the results should probably have been better considering their ability to control the flow of play. What’s interesting is that over the course of the season, there wasn’t a lot of movement among the teams, and we had a good sense of who would make it pretty early on. The teams that did catch fire and media attention often fizzled out as their underling numbers were often poor. So there really wasn’t much excitement, especially with the Pacific being so, so bad.

For reference, I’ve also put the table together for the eastern conference. Carolina, Tampa Bay and Ottawa all posted strong shot-share numbers, but it appears they’ve also had some goaltending issues. Buffalo obviously did well, but I do wonder if we see them struggle considering their shot-share numbers weren’t great and they rode the PDO pony a bit. Same with Montreal. Boston appears a little fraudulent, as does Philadelphia, so I don’t think they’ll get very far.

Obviously pulling for Edmonton because of the smart cats they have in the front office, but I’m thinking it’ll be Colorado coming out of the west and likely Carolina and Uncle Dennis representing the east.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Checking in on the Oilers checking out

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Pretty lame re-start to the season, with the Oilers losing two of their first three games since the Olympic break. This recent one against the Sharks was especially bad with the Oilers chasing the game quite a bit, posting a 41% Corsi For percentage in a 5-4 game. And please throw dirt on any end-of-road-trip excuses – contenders contend.

The Oilers are now rocking a -12 goal differential at equal strength (5v5), a 47 percent goal-share that ranks 20th in the NHL. And their underlying numbers continue to slide. In their last ten games now, the Oilers have barely broken even with shot attempts and unblocked shot attempts – and their expected goal-share is 48 percent.

There’s clearly some tactical and execution issues happening here, and a major spot of bother for the coaching staff. Adding Coffey reeks a little of desperation (and the owner wanting some straight answers about the current state), and it feels like a matter of time until more serious changes are made behind the bench.

There’s also the recurring personnel issues that haven’t been resolved all season.

  • The Oilers continue to get their teeth kicked without McDavid or Draisaitl deployed, consistently getting out-played, out-chanced and out-scored. All their on-ice shot-share metrics hover around 45 percent, while their actual goal-differential is at an abysmal -25 (!).
  • Darnell Nurse continues to be a drag on the team’s performance and results, but continues to get plenty of playing time.
  • The goaltending at even-strength currently ranks dead last in the league, with a team save percentage of 88.65 percent. Jarry has not been the answer for Edmonton (was never going to be), so hopefully Ingram can get his game together and play at a level we’ve seen him at before.

So while the coaching staff needs some tweaks, I do wonder how the Oilers front office is going to navigate the upcoming trade deadline. They clearly have to be in win-now mode, especially with McDavid and Draisaitl in their primes and with the Pacific being so weak. But there has to be a way to start addressing next season as well, and build a stronger contender than this one.

Discarding some of the older players is an obvious step. Mangiapane is pretty much done, but it’d be worth exploring what the market rate is for guys like Janmark or Lazar. They’re not difficult to replace, and the team does have some decent players in the AHL who could get a look and make a bigger impact.

There also has to be a clear directive to the coaching staff to let guys like Savoie take on bigger minutes down the stretch. It’s imperative to see what the team has in this player and to know which role(s) he’ll take on in 2026-27. Moving him out of the top six as quickly as the coaching staff has done isn’t helping.

If there’s a deadline acquisition, it has to be someone who can slide into that second pairing with Walman to stabilize things and to not be a drag on the team’s forward’s performance – from first line to fourth line. A medium-term plan to replace Nurse has to be in motion at this point. The issues with Nurse have gone on for way too long. And while I appreciate his draft pedigree and his leadership role on the team – it’s not translating to actual on-ice results.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Evaluating a depreciating asset: Checking in on Adam Henrique’s season

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Back in early September of 2025, I had identified Oilers veteran forward Adam Henrique as someone who could potentially see their ice time decrease to make room for some of the younger players.

This was because Henrique:

  • had been seeing his point production decline;
  • been negatively impacting his team’s ability to control shots and scoring chances at even-strength;
  • hadn’t had a positive impact on the special teams, specifically the penalty kill, and
  • was in the last year of his contract.

You can read the full article here: Depreciating assets (2025, September 13)

With the news that Henrique is being place on injured reserve and unavailable until after the Olympic break in late February, I wanted to see if his decline has continued this season based on the three areas I had originally focused on. And if the Oilers are better or worse without him in the lineup. He’s been a regular for the team this season, unlike some other veterans who have seen time in the press box despite having multi-season contracts.

Productivity at even-strength (five-on-five)

This season, Henrique has only one goal and four assists at even-strength (5v5) in a predominantly bottom-six role. That translates to only 0.63 points per hour, which is part of a continued decline for the 36 year old.

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Henrique currently ranks 16th out of 17 Oiler forwards who have played at least 50 minutes, only ahead of Trent Frederic. This is beyond replacement-level production now.

Negative impact on the team’s even-strength performance

We saw over the last few seasons the negative impact Henrique would have on his team’s ability to control the flow of play and scoring chances. With him on the ice, the Oilers would spend more time without the puck and chasing the game, and almost every player on the team saw their on-ice numbers take a hit when Henrique was deployed with them.

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This season Henrique has continued to have a negative impact on the team’s offensive opportunities, but it hasn’t been as bad as previous seasons. That’s progress, I guess. But it’s part of a continued downward trend, and hard to ignore. The entire bottom six group has been a dumpster this season at evens, and Henrique has been a major part of that.

  • [Update] Worth noting that part of Henrique’s slide is the amount of time he’s played with Trent Frederic who is having a terrible season. Together, they’ve posted on-ice shot-share numbers below 44%, and when Frederic is away from Henrique, it’s not much better. But when Henrique is on the ice away from Frederic, his on-ice shot-share numbers are at or above 50 percent. Thanks to @gofortwoelks on BlueSky for the heads up!

Not so special on special teams

Okay, so here’s where things are a little interesting. The last few seasons, Henrique has not been great on the penalty kill with the team allowing a higher rate of shots against with him on the ice. This year, however, the Oilers actually see a drop in the rate of shots and chances against with Henrique deployed, which could explain why he’s leading the forward group in ice time on the penalty. And why he has a regular spot in the line up.

For context, the Oilers penalty kill ranks 17th in the league, allowing 7.52 goals against per hour. Main reason for the mediocre results: they allow the 11th highest rate of shots against per hour (56.21) and the eighth highest rate of unblocked shot attempts per hour (a proxy for scoring chances) with 85.07. The team’s goaltending has actually been decent, ranking 10th in the league with a 86.63 percent save percentage.

With Henrique on the ice for the penalty kill, the team allows a rate of 42.71 shots against per hour. Without him, this rate jumps by over 30 percent to 63.77 shots against per hour. That’s a significant difference, which should raise some concern for the team as they’ll need their penalty kill results to be strong – especially with the team struggling to outscore teams at even-strength. Right now, the Oilers have allowed 6.70 goals against per hour with Henrique out there, which is lower than the team rate, and significant lower than what Nugent-Hopkins is posting (12.08 goals against per hour, driven largely by a rate of 73.69 (!) shots against per hour). If RNH is taking on more penalty kill minutes, expect the results to get much worse.

So while the Oilers should be able to handle Henrique’s absence at even-strength, and will likely be better off without him in the lineup, the penalty kill performance and results are likely going to get worse.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Debunk the funk

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While things look great for the Edmonton Oilers – currently sitting first in the Pacific division with 46 points in 41 games – it’s not likely to last very long. Their actual points percentage is 0.561, which is third behind Vegas and Anaheim in the Pacific, sixth in the west and sixteenth in the league. Their actual goal-share in all-situations is +1, but that’s largely driven by their success on the powerplay. At even-strength, their goal-differential is -13, a goal-share of only 46 percent that ranks 26th in the league. And all of their underlying shot-share metrics at even-strength are barely at the break-even mark.

The Oilers are nowhere near where they were last season at this time. And it’s not what you’d expect from a team with championship aspirations.

The good news is that the rest of the Pacific division is a bit a joke right now. Vegas currently has the best goal differential with 0 (yes zero, not a typo). And only Los Angeles has a goal-share above 50 percent at even-strength. Edmonton has shown signs of progress in December, but they still lack that consistent play and production that’s expected from a high-end team.

Western conference context

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage). These include goal-share results and shot-share metrics, which give us a sense of which teams have strong underlying processes — and which are over- or underperforming. At the end of the table, you’ll find each team’s shooting and save percentages. A simple heat map highlights which clubs are excelling (green) or struggling (red). Note: all shot-share metrics are score- and venue-adjusted per Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

The Oilers have definitely made some progress since my last check-in at the end of November when they were 11th in the west with a 0.519 points percentage, even surpassing the cluster of teams that I had predicted. I’d have a lot more confidence in them if they can string together a set of ten games or so where their shot-share numbers are above 53 percent and their goaltending improves. They can’t string more than two wins together, which could open the door for another team to eventually pass them.

Again, the only real dominant team in the west is Colorado, with Dallas and Minnesota riding some excellent goaltending to stick around in that contender cluster. Vegas and Anaheim should be able to stick around just based on their underlying shot-share numbers, but they also appear to have some goaltending issues. Los Angeles is in that group as well, and have the goaltending which could propel them higher. And it’ll be interesting to see if Nashville, Calgary or Utah can leap frog some of the pretenders to lock up that eighth spot.

Evaluating individual players

Here’s a quick look at the Oilers’ skaters, and their on-ice numbers so far sorted by ice time. Included is each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. And for additional context, each player’s on-ice PDO is captured. A basic heat map is applied to show how players compare within their cohort.

Not a whole lot to note since the last check-in. Mangiapane’s been healthy scratched, which isn’t surprising since his performance and results have been poor. And as mentioned last time, Savoie was likely to continue sliding just based on his on-ice numbers. He’s even seeing his minutes cut back, which I don’t think is a bad idea. He could use a little reset and the coaching staff could test out some wingers on that second line with Draisaitl and Podkolzin.

The bottom six is a dump at this point. In an ironic 911 minutes without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice at even-strength this season, the Oilers have been outscored 19-43 – a pathetic goal-share of only 30.7 percent (-24 goal differential). Remember- these depth players get 45 percent of the team’s total ice time and this is the best that they can muster. And it’s hard to believe things are going to turn around any time soon. Their shot-share numbers without one or both of the Glimmer Twins deployed only hovers around 45 percent. Now might be a good time to promote some of the kids in the AHL to see what they have and if they can help turn things around.

Nothing really noteworthy on the back-end. Nurse is still a problem that needs to be managed. And the team desperately needs Walman back to help stabilize things. I do suspect that the bottom six is struggling because of the instability on the back-end, but would need to dig in further.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Systemic power outage

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Pretty dreadful situation the Edmonton Oilers are currently in as they sit fifth in the Pacific with a 0.524 points percentage and a -12 goal-differential. Their situation is especially dire at even-strength (5v5) where they currently have a goal-differential of -16, a goal-share of only 41% that’s second worst in the league.

Key issues at even-strength:

  • Corsi for percentage is 49% (17th in the league)
  • Expected goals for percentage is 47% (25th)
  • Shooting percentage is 7.88% (28th)
  • Save percentage is 87.55% (32nd)

There are also the current issues that have come up countless times now in the Oilers’ McDavid era – and well documented on this website and elsewhere:

  • Struggling to perform and produce without McDavid on the ice
  • Playing too conservatively when holding any sort of lead.
  • Too many shots from the defencemen
  • Reverting to the McDavid/Draisaitl pairing when under any duress.
  • Lack of opportunity for younger/developing players.
  • Horrible on-ice numbers from players who have a history of posting horrible on-ice numbers, and continuing to overplay them (i.e., Nurse)

This is more than enough evidence to suggest that the team needs significant changes, and I wouldn’t be shy to look at the coaching staff first. The roster has had a lot of changes, and they were without Hyman for the start of the season. But there’s enough talent on the roster to ice a consistent, competitive team. If the team was at least posting some respectable shot-share and expected goal numbers, I’d let the results slide and expect some regression. But because the team is struggling to generate offence, which is what the coaching staff has direct influence on, it might be time for a coaching change.

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Digging into the offensive numbers a little more, it’s quite alarming that the team is only generating 38 unblocked shot attempts per hour, which ranks 22nd in the league. Last season, the Oilers ranked third with 45 unblocked shot attempts per hour, only behind Carolina and Florida. The season before that, the Oilers were second in the league with 46, only behind Carolina. The Edmonton Oilers have basically seen their rate of unblocked shot attempts drop by about 17 percent from the last few seasons.

What should really be unsettling for the Oilers front office is the fact that even Connor McDavid’s on-ice numbers have dropped. His current on-ice rate of 43 shot attempts per hour is a steep drop from 52, which he posted last season, and 55 that he posted the season before. In short, the best player in the world has seen his on-ice rate of unblocked shot attempts drop by around 20 percent in this coaching staff’s system. And yes, even without Nurse, his on-ice rate of unblocked shot attempts is still only 45.

Knoblauch and his group have really dropped the ball this season and will need to make some critical adjustments. The results at even-strength are some of the worst in the league, and a lot of the underlying issues fall within the coaching staff’s scope of expertise. There’s still time to turn things around, but it’s going to require less stubbornness and panicking – attributes that this head coach might have trouble shaking off.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Losing the end game

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Disappointing end for the Edmonton Oilers who were defeated soundly by the Florida Panthers. After rolling through the western conference, dominating territorial play, and getting production from across the roster, the Oilers could not keep up with the Panthers. While there were some reasons for optimism after the first four games of the series, all of that was put to rest with the Panthers outscoring Edmonton 10-3 in games five and six. Florida had more high-quality players than Edmonton and controlled every facet of the game.

Here’s how the two teams compared in the final series at even-strength (5v5). The Panthers out-scored Edmonton 16-10 (a 62 percent goal-share), which aligned well with their underlying shot-share numbers. The Panthers titled the ice consistently, pouncing on the Oilers blunders, taking smart risks, sustaining pressure, and generating chances. And it was reflected in their Corsi for percentage (55 percent) and expected goals for percentage (57 percent) – just outstanding numbers which aligned with how they had performed in their first three rounds in the eastern conference.

The only time the Oilers were a threat against the Panthers at even-strength was when McDavid and Draisaitl were on the ice together. They played 70 minutes (about 20 percent of the Oilers total time) and posted a Corsi For percentage of 59 percent and an Expected Goals for percentage of 57 percent – indicating that the Oilers controlled the flow of play and scoring chances. The issue was that they could not finish their chances, scoring only one goal and allowing five against (a goal-share of 16 percent). That’s far below the results we would expect from the top two players in the world, but that’s how things can go in a short tournament.

When the two stars were playing apart from one another (about 80 minutes of ice time), the team could not control the flow of play or scoring chances. And when neither player was on the ice (174 minutes, or 53 percent of the team’s total time), the Oilers were absolutely dreadful. Their Corsi For percentage and Expected goals for percentage were below 40 percent. Florida’s middle order and depth players completely dominated the Oilers and they were lucky to break even in goals. Again, Edmonton did not have enough high-quality players and by the end of the series the club looked gassed. While it was important to add experience to the roster, you could tell throughout the series that the team lacked speed and quick decision-making to handle the Panthers forecheck.

Here’s how the Oilers skaters performed at even-strength in the six games against the Panthers. Only a handful of players posted on-ice shot-share numbers above 50 percent – just a dismal showing.

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Losing Hyman and having Nugent-Hopkins and Ekholm injured played a big role in the Oilers overall performance and results. But there were a lot of self-inflicted problems as well. In goal, Edmonton knew what they had in Stuart Skinner as he has struggled to provide league-average goaltending for a few seasons now. On the back end, Edmonton knew what they had in Nurse and the negative impact he consistently has on his teammates and their on-ice numbers. And up front, Edmonton knew that more than a few depth players were posting negative on-ice shot-share numbers late in the regular season and in the first few rounds.

Begs the question – was the Oilers general manager ignorant to this information or just negligent?  And knowing that players like Nurse and Kane were struggling and making poor decisions and reads all over the ice, why was the coaching staff giving them more minutes at even-strength?

There are some very fundamental roster-construction strategies that the Oilers need to review this off-season. With a lot of inefficient contracts, aging players and major roster deficiencies, the Oilers have plenty of work to do. But they can’t approach it the same way they’ve done in the past. There has to be a focus on getting younger and quicker and being shrewder with contracts – especially for replacement-level players or those who struggle to have a positive impact on the team’s performance. While there’s a reputational risk of behaving this way, the Oilers have to be more focused on finding better players – not just those with personal connections to management or team personnel. The league is only getting more competitive, and the Oilers haven’t exactly loaded up on impactful prospects to keep pace. So, they’ll need a new approach to roster construction starting this off-season.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Bearing off

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This has to be it, right? The Edmonton Oilers get a second chance to win the Stanley Cup starting on Wednesday night against the Florida Panthers, which should be a very entertaining series. Both clubs have been dominant this post-season, and it felt kind of inevitable that they’d be going at it again. Pip count is near identical, now it comes down to the rolls – and hopefully things swing the Oilers way.

Here’s how the two clubs have done at even-strength this post-season. Both have dominated the scoresheets, each hovering around a near identical 62 percent goal-share. And their success has been supported by strong shot-share numbers – no surprise there.

What stands out here is the fact that the Oilers goaltending has been slightly better at even-strength this post-season, with the Panthers hovering closer to league average levels. Bobrovsky had a solid regular season, ranking 15th among 58 goalies who played at least 1,000 minutes in the regular season with a 91.9 percent save percentage. And a +8.53 goals-saved-above-average. Skinner, meanwhile, ranked 46th in save percentage (90.2 percent) and 48th in GSAA (-8.80). What that tells me is that Bobrovsky put together longer stretches of success in the regular season than Skinner – but it remains to be seen which one can do it first in the finals.

Both teams are also getting good results from across their rosters – scoring goals with and without their star players on the ice. Without one or both of McDavid or Draisaitl at even-strength, so about 50 percent of the team’s total time, the Oilers have posted a goal-share of 67.74 percent (21 goals for, 10 goals against). And on the other side, without one or both of Barkov or Tkachuk, about 46 percent of the team’s total time, the Panthers have also posted an exceptional goal-share of 66.67 percent (20 goals for, 10 against).

Where the Panthers depth players have an edge over Edmonton is their possession numbers, as measured by the Corsi For percentage (i.e., unblocked shot attempts). Edmonton tends to struggle controlling the overall flow of play, especially with Nurse on the ice with the depth players. In those situations (i.e., Nurse without one or both of McDavid or Draisaitl), the results have been good (9 GF/5 GA), but the team’s shot share metrics like Corsi and Expected Goals hover around 45 percent.

Here’s how the Panthers skaters have fared this post-season at even-strength, sorted by ice time, with a basic heat map applied to show how each player compares to their teammates.

While there are some players riding the PDO wave, like the Lundell/Marchand/Luostarinen line (who have been excellent), there are others like Reinhart who have the potential to see their scoring pop at evens. Reinhart’s on-ice shot-share numbers have been excellent, but he has only broken-even in terms of goals. Suspect the Panthers coaching staff will heavily target Darnell Nurse, as well as Henrique, Brown and Janmark. As I wrote recently, the Oilers tend to allow a lot of shots with these players on the ice – a trend that has continued since the regular season.

Should also note that the Panthers powerplay has only been alright. They’ve scored at a rate of 8.47 goals per hour, which is close to what they had in the regular season. They’re struggling to generate shots, sitting at a rate of 38 shots per hour, which is one of the lowest among all teams this post-season, and well below where they were in the regular season. The Panthers penalty kill on the other hand has been excellent. They’ve only allowed seven this post-season (a rate of 3.90 goals against per hour), which is one of the best in the league and half of what they allowed in the regular season. They’ve done an excellent job suppressing shots and making life easier for their goaltender – something the Oilers powerplay will have to figure out right away.

As I said at the top, both clubs have moved into their home boards and are in excellent position to win the game – but it’ll come down to the rolls. A bounce here and there, and hopefully someone getting the hot hand should allow Edmonton to bear off and win their first championship since 1990.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Drawbacks of the Edmonton Oilers having two five-man units

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

I recently wrote about how the Edmonton Oilers have recently been getting a lot more out of defenceman Darnell Nurse, as his performance numbers and results have been significantly better than earlier this season. And it’s largely driven by the fact that he’s being deployed a lot more often with Leon Draisaitl’s line. Full article is at Oilersnation.

This had me wondering if deploying Nurse exclusively with Draisaitl’s line and continuing to deploy the Bouchard/Ekholm tandem almost exclusively with McDavid’s line actually makes sense. The results should be great for those two five-man units as there’s plenty of skill and talent there. But wouldn’t that make the rest of the Oilers roster easier to exploit at even-strength?

Looking at the on-ice data, it appears as though the Oilers have recently been exposed, making them an easier target for team’s with depth and skill spread across the lineup.

In the last ten games, without the McDavid/Bouchard/Ekholm set or the Draisaitl/Nurse set, the Oilers have posted the following numbers at even-strength (5v5):

  • Corsi for percentage: 40.74%
  • Expected goals for percentage: 37.24%
  • Goals for percentage: 40.00% (4 goals for, 6 goals against)

The Oilers have played 138 minutes without their two five-man units, which was about 28 percent of the team’s total time in the last ten games. Two concerns with that:

  • The star players are playing a lot more, likely because the Oilers coaching staff urgently needed to make some ground in the standings. I’d expect their minutes to taper off eventually as the season wears on and to stay fresh for the playoffs. But if the depth players are constantly getting outscored, who knows.
  • That’s a good chunk of time that another team could target and exploit, and make life difficult for Edmonton. The Oilers third and fourth lines do a decent job defending, but they generate and score a lot less.

What’s also interesting is how the team’s depth players (i.e., the team without their two five-man units) are impacting the team’s overall shot-share numbers (Corsi For percentage) as well as their share of expected goals.

This graph shows the Oilers Corsi For percentage, with score effects factored in (solid line), over rolling ten game segments. They were at one point one of the best teams in the league, hovering around the 55 percent mark. But it’s gradually declined closer to the break-even mark.

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And this graph shows the Oilers expected goals share, which is trending even worse. Sitting below 50 percent in the last ten games is a little alarming. And it wouldn’t be surprising if their actual results at even-strength start to slip in the coming weeks.

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I don’t think there’s a quick, internal solution here either. Having Nurse play more often with the third and fourth lines isn’t going to work as we know the numbers have been poor in those situations. Plus he’s playing some of his best hockey right now, and I doubt he’d want to play fewer minutes with the star players. My guess is the Oilers will need to give their third pairing an offensive boost, which the Oilers appear to be addressing by acquiring Alec Regula off waivers (draft profile here). It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out and if the third and fourth lines, along with the third defence pair, can improve their on-ice numbers at even-strength.

Data: Natural Stat Trick