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Bearing off

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This has to be it, right? The Edmonton Oilers get a second chance to win the Stanley Cup starting on Wednesday night against the Florida Panthers, which should be a very entertaining series. Both clubs have been dominant this post-season, and it felt kind of inevitable that they’d be going at it again. Pip count is near identical, now it comes down to the rolls – and hopefully things swing the Oilers way.

Here’s how the two clubs have done at even-strength this post-season. Both have dominated the scoresheets, each hovering around a near identical 62 percent goal-share. And their success has been supported by strong shot-share numbers – no surprise there.

What stands out here is the fact that the Oilers goaltending has been slightly better at even-strength this post-season, with the Panthers hovering closer to league average levels. Bobrovsky had a solid regular season, ranking 15th among 58 goalies who played at least 1,000 minutes in the regular season with a 91.9 percent save percentage. And a +8.53 goals-saved-above-average. Skinner, meanwhile, ranked 46th in save percentage (90.2 percent) and 48th in GSAA (-8.80). What that tells me is that Bobrovsky put together longer stretches of success in the regular season than Skinner – but it remains to be seen which one can do it first in the finals.

Both teams are also getting good results from across their rosters – scoring goals with and without their star players on the ice. Without one or both of McDavid or Draisaitl at even-strength, so about 50 percent of the team’s total time, the Oilers have posted a goal-share of 67.74 percent (21 goals for, 10 goals against). And on the other side, without one or both of Barkov or Tkachuk, about 46 percent of the team’s total time, the Panthers have also posted an exceptional goal-share of 66.67 percent (20 goals for, 10 against).

Where the Panthers depth players have an edge over Edmonton is their possession numbers, as measured by the Corsi For percentage (i.e., unblocked shot attempts). Edmonton tends to struggle controlling the overall flow of play, especially with Nurse on the ice with the depth players. In those situations (i.e., Nurse without one or both of McDavid or Draisaitl), the results have been good (9 GF/5 GA), but the team’s shot share metrics like Corsi and Expected Goals hover around 45 percent.

Here’s how the Panthers skaters have fared this post-season at even-strength, sorted by ice time, with a basic heat map applied to show how each player compares to their teammates.

While there are some players riding the PDO wave, like the Lundell/Marchand/Luostarinen line (who have been excellent), there are others like Reinhart who have the potential to see their scoring pop at evens. Reinhart’s on-ice shot-share numbers have been excellent, but he has only broken-even in terms of goals. Suspect the Panthers coaching staff will heavily target Darnell Nurse, as well as Henrique, Brown and Janmark. As I wrote recently, the Oilers tend to allow a lot of shots with these players on the ice – a trend that has continued since the regular season.

Should also note that the Panthers powerplay has only been alright. They’ve scored at a rate of 8.47 goals per hour, which is close to what they had in the regular season. They’re struggling to generate shots, sitting at a rate of 38 shots per hour, which is one of the lowest among all teams this post-season, and well below where they were in the regular season. The Panthers penalty kill on the other hand has been excellent. They’ve only allowed seven this post-season (a rate of 3.90 goals against per hour), which is one of the best in the league and half of what they allowed in the regular season. They’ve done an excellent job suppressing shots and making life easier for their goaltender – something the Oilers powerplay will have to figure out right away.

As I said at the top, both clubs have moved into their home boards and are in excellent position to win the game – but it’ll come down to the rolls. A bounce here and there, and hopefully someone getting the hot hand should allow Edmonton to bear off and win their first championship since 1990.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Drawbacks of the Edmonton Oilers having two five-man units

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I recently wrote about how the Edmonton Oilers have recently been getting a lot more out of defenceman Darnell Nurse, as his performance numbers and results have been significantly better than earlier this season. And it’s largely driven by the fact that he’s being deployed a lot more often with Leon Draisaitl’s line. Full article is at Oilersnation.

This had me wondering if deploying Nurse exclusively with Draisaitl’s line and continuing to deploy the Bouchard/Ekholm tandem almost exclusively with McDavid’s line actually makes sense. The results should be great for those two five-man units as there’s plenty of skill and talent there. But wouldn’t that make the rest of the Oilers roster easier to exploit at even-strength?

Looking at the on-ice data, it appears as though the Oilers have recently been exposed, making them an easier target for team’s with depth and skill spread across the lineup.

In the last ten games, without the McDavid/Bouchard/Ekholm set or the Draisaitl/Nurse set, the Oilers have posted the following numbers at even-strength (5v5):

  • Corsi for percentage: 40.74%
  • Expected goals for percentage: 37.24%
  • Goals for percentage: 40.00% (4 goals for, 6 goals against)

The Oilers have played 138 minutes without their two five-man units, which was about 28 percent of the team’s total time in the last ten games. Two concerns with that:

  • The star players are playing a lot more, likely because the Oilers coaching staff urgently needed to make some ground in the standings. I’d expect their minutes to taper off eventually as the season wears on and to stay fresh for the playoffs. But if the depth players are constantly getting outscored, who knows.
  • That’s a good chunk of time that another team could target and exploit, and make life difficult for Edmonton. The Oilers third and fourth lines do a decent job defending, but they generate and score a lot less.

What’s also interesting is how the team’s depth players (i.e., the team without their two five-man units) are impacting the team’s overall shot-share numbers (Corsi For percentage) as well as their share of expected goals.

This graph shows the Oilers Corsi For percentage, with score effects factored in (solid line), over rolling ten game segments. They were at one point one of the best teams in the league, hovering around the 55 percent mark. But it’s gradually declined closer to the break-even mark.

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And this graph shows the Oilers expected goals share, which is trending even worse. Sitting below 50 percent in the last ten games is a little alarming. And it wouldn’t be surprising if their actual results at even-strength start to slip in the coming weeks.

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I don’t think there’s a quick, internal solution here either. Having Nurse play more often with the third and fourth lines isn’t going to work as we know the numbers have been poor in those situations. Plus he’s playing some of his best hockey right now, and I doubt he’d want to play fewer minutes with the star players. My guess is the Oilers will need to give their third pairing an offensive boost, which the Oilers appear to be addressing by acquiring Alec Regula off waivers (draft profile here). It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out and if the third and fourth lines, along with the third defence pair, can improve their on-ice numbers at even-strength.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

The redeployment of Darnell Nurse is leading to some of his best hockey for the Oilers

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The Edmonton Oilers made significant progress in November and now have 32 points in 27 games—a points percentage of 0.593 that ranks seventh in the Western Conference and fourth in the division. Their first ten games of the season really set them back (4-5-1), as they were, at one point, 13th in the conference and only ahead of San Jose in the Pacific.

There are plenty of reasons for their resurgence, but one player in particular who has helped turn things around is defenceman Darnell Nurse. He’s been more noticeable recently (for good reasons) making some great plays on Saturday night against St. Louis and helping set up Corey Perry with a nifty pass for the opening goal.

Nurse had really been struggling early on this season, especially at even-strength (5v5). In 171 minutes over the first ten games of the year (up until October 30), he had a 25 percent on-ice goal-share (on the ice for three goals for and nine goals against). And he was posting some of the worst shot-share numbers on the team as opponents would more often outshoot and outchance the Oilers with Nurse on the ice. What really stood out in those first ten games was how almost every forward on the Oilers was posting better on-ice shot-share numbers when they were playing away from him (i.e., without Nurse on the ice), as Nurse’s performance was really dragging his teammates down.

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Since those first ten games, however, Nurse has been posting significantly better numbers with the team doing a better job controlling the flow of play and scoring chances with him on the ice. His on-ice shot-share numbers at even-strength are all above 53 percent and some of the best numbers on the team. The best part is that his actual results (i.e., goal-share/goal-differentials) have been excellent, as the team has posted a goal-share of 82 percent — nine goals for, two goals against with Nurse on the ice. That goal-share isn’t sustainable and will gradually decline, but his underlying shot-share numbers indicate that the Oilers are more likely to outscore opponents with Nurse on the ice if he continues to perform at this level.

Now this turnaround didn’t happen automatically, and it appears there have been some very strategic adjustments made by the Oilers coaching staff. There’s a lot of pressure on this team this season to win games and make a deep playoff run. And to also maintain the value of their players, especially those on heavy, long-term deals like Nurse. So, it behooves the coaching staff to recognize problems, find potential solutions to improve their odds of winning games and have the courage to carry through on them.

One solution to the Nurse performance problem has been more ice time with Leon Draisaitl.

As I had written about in late October, Nurse played a lot of his even-strength minutes with the depth forwards in the first ten games of the season – specifically the third and fourth lines. Of the 171 minutes Nurse was deployed for, about 35 percent was with Adam Henrique and 32 percent was with the fourth line (basically when McDavid, Draisaitl or Henrique weren’t on the ice). About 23 percent was with Leon Draisaitl and Nurse played the least often with McDavid’s line, as that top line has exclusively been deployed with the Evan Bouchard/Mattias Ekholm pairing – a five-man unit pretty much all season.

Since those first ten games Nurse’s deployment has significantly changed, with more of his time being spent with Draisaitl, and whoever is on the second line, and less time with the third and fourth lines. The table below splits Nurse’s season between his first ten games (up until October 30) and the last fourteen games (between October 31 and December 7). Note that Nurse did miss a few games with a head injury.

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What we see here is that Nurse’s overall proportion of ice time with Draisaitl has significantly increased from about 23 percent in the first ten games to just under 40 percent in the last fourteen games – essentially creating a second five-man unit for the coaching staff to deploy. Nurse’s proportion of ice time with Henrique has dropped from 34 percent to 26 percent. And his time with the fourth-line players dropped from 33 percent to just under 11 percent.

This re-adjustment of Nurse’s deployment makes a lot of sense as he’s now playing more often with a second line who he was performing well within the first ten games of the season. One of my findings back in late October was that while Nurse dragged the performance numbers of most of the forwards down, his numbers remained respectable with Draisaitl, Podkolzin and Arvidsson – the group that basically formed the second line. So far things are going well as Nurse is not only performing well in his increased minutes with Draisaitl and the second line, but also playing much better in the minutes with the depth players.

It’d be worth asking the Oilers coaching staff if this actually was a strategic plan to help Nurse’s performance numbers improve. And if players like Nurse, who are accustomed to playing with high-end players tend to play down to the level of their linemates. My thought is when a defenceman like Nurse is out with a fourth line, for example, they may be conserving their energy and risk-taking for when they get to play with higher-end linemates, but that’s something a coach or player can speak to.

For now, it’s interesting to see how a coaching staff has adjusted a player’s deployment, and potentially used data and underlying shot-share numbers to assist with decision-making. Recognizing deficiencies, identifying solutions, and having the courage to carry them out is critical for a team pushing for championship. Hopefully, there’s more to come – especially for a roster that hasn’t quite reached its potential yet.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Tracking the Western conference – As of November 30, 2024

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Much better results from the Edmonton Oilers this month as they moved from tenth in the west to seventh currently sitting with a points percentage of 0.583. They finished November with a record of 8-4-1, and ranked fourth in the league in terms of points percentage (0.654) only behind Minnesota, Toronto and Washington. What’s interesting is that their goal-differential during this recent stretch has only been even (28 goals for, 28 goals against). Considering their strong shot-share numbers, it probably should have been better. Could have also used some better goaltending. But all that matters for now are the points being accumulated, and the rise in the standings.

Below are the current even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

We’re starting to see teams fall into their places, just based on what their shot share numbers have been like. For example, Edmonton and Colorado had good shot-share numbers last month and ranked poorly. But things have turned around for both clubs in the last month, and they’ve gained ground in the west. And we’ve seen teams like Calgary and Anaheim who were getting outshot regularly but getting good results last month, start to crash down back to earth.

We’re also starting to see which teams have issues to address in net, especially those with championship aspirations. Edmonton, Colorado, Vegas and Vancouver may need to keep an eye on the goalie market, and it’ll be interesting to see which of them can turn things around.

Edmonton and Colorado also have their even-strength scoring issues to address, as both rank near the bottom the league when it comes to finishing chances. Colorado is also relying heavily on their special teams to bail their even-strength play out.

Also do wonder if we’ll see Winnipeg and especially Vegas fall in the standings, as both clubs have had issues controlling the flow of play, and rely heavily either on their goaltending (Winnipeg) or ability to finish chances (Vegas).

And I do think we’ll see Utah start to climb up. They’re posting solid shot-share numbers and have one of the best even-strength goal-shares in the league. The issue for them is that their special teams have been terrible. Their powerplay is generating very few chances and goals. And their penalty kill allows one of the highest rates of shots against, and is relying heavily on their goaltending to allow an average rate of goals against. If they can figure out special teams, they could be very good.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

  • Points-percentage (Point%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
  • Corsi for percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., corsi for/(corsi for + corsi against). This is used as a proxy for possession and is the best at predicting a team’steam’s future share of goals (GF%). (Source: Hockey Great Tapes – Draglikepull)
  • Fenwick for percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick for/(Fenwick for + aenwick against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill.
  • Expected goals for percentage (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot.
  • Goals for percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals for/(Goals for + goals against).
  • Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
  • Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against)).

Confidence levels

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The Edmonton Oilers currently rank 16th in the league with a 0.545 points percentage, and have been pretty mid at even-strength (5v5). Their goal differential has been steadily improving, but they’re currently at -3 (43 goals for, 46 goals against). They’re only shooting at 7.05 percent (26th in the league) and have a team save percentage of 90.25 percent (23rd in the league). Note that the league average shooting percentage over the last three seasons has been 8.55 percent and the save percentage has been 91.47 percent. More on that in a second.

The Oilers are currently posting some excellent shot-share numbers, near the top of the league when it comes to critical metrics like Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage. So in a perfect world, their current goal-share of 48.31 percent eventually reaches somewhere around 53 to 55 percent, which is around where they were last season and the prior three seasons. Getting there is going to require the team and save percentage bouncing back. But how much confidence should we have in one or both of those things happening?

Based just on what I’ve seen from the Oilers, I have a lot more confidence in the team’s shooting percentage turning around. They have the top end talent, they have some depth pieces who have a good track record of scoring goals. And they’ve been relatively healthy, but we’ll wait to see what the long-term prognosis is for Hyman and Arviddson. The goaltending on the other hand has been pretty suspect for a while now, and there’s been enough mediocre stretches to indicate that goaltending is never going to be truly elite. But are there numbers to back this up?

First, here’s a look at the Oilers cumulative team shooting percentage at even-strength this season and last season (2023/24). The gray line across represents the league average shooting percentage from the previous three seasons (2021-2024). What stands out here is that while the Oilers didn’t do a great job converting their chances early on last season, they eventually improved and were above league average rates for the most part. Not sure if the Oilers can replicate that this season, but with the talent up front, and a decent supporting cast, it’s more than likely.

Goaltending on the other hand had some issues last season, and the best they could ever reach was league average. Not a lot of times was the goaltending one of the league’s best last season, so it’s hard to expect them to steal games this year or go on a long stretch of high-end goaltending. Especially since it’s the same two goalies as last season. The most we can reasonably expect from Skinner and Pickard is league-average, and a lot has to break right even for that.

I do wonder what the Oilers front office is thinking and what they have more confidence in bouncing back: the team save percentage or the team shooting percentage? It’s clear both areas have cost them wins this season and there’s a sense that it’s the offensive side of things that have management more concerned. My thought is that the goaltending is what needs an upgrade, and hopefully soon considering the high expectations for the team.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Bouncing back

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Scoring at even-strength (5v5) has been a major problem for the Edmonton Oilers this season. After 16 games, or about 20% of the regular season, the Oilers rank 28th in the league with a 6.84 percent team shooting percentage. That’s only ahead of San Jose, Detroit, Anaheim and Nashville.

Last regular season, the Oilers finished the year right around league average with a team shooting percentage of 8.81 percent, good for 15th in the league. They started the 2023/24 season just as poorly, posting an almost identical shooting percentage after their first sixteen games – only converting on 6.46 percent of their shots.

Below is a graph showing the Oilers cumulative shooting percentage over the course of last season (orange line). It took them a while to get going, but they finished the regular season well. And the shorter blue line represents the Oilers cumulative shooting percentage for the current regular season.

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With the talent level they have and the team’s dominance when it comes to controlling the flow of play and scoring chances at even-strength, it’s likely that the Oilers team shooting percentage gradually improves and stops costing them games. But there’s a couple issues that they’ll need to address to improve their odds of scoring more frequently at even-strength.

First, the team needs to reduce the amount of low-danger shot attempts and shots. There’s been a few too many games where it’s felt like the opposing goalie is putting on an all-star performance. But it’s largely due to the Oilers rate of low-danger shot attempts (38.93 per hour) and low-danger shots on goal (13.91), both of which are close to highest in the league (based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology). The Oilers are definitely a high-volume shot team, as they’re also good at generating higher danger chances. But when they do get those high danger chances, it’s like the opposing goalie is warmed up from all of the lower danger ones that they already faced and is making key saves.

The second issue for the Oilers to address is getting more shots from the forwards instead of the defencemen. So far this season, over 40 percent of their shot attempts and over 35 percent of their shots on goal are from their blueline, which is much higher than league average levels and the level they were at last year (refer to the table below). The team is about 5% higher than where they should be.

Proportion from defencemen (5v5) Shot attempts Unblocked shot attempts Shots on goal
League average (3 seasons) 34.3% 30.3% 29.6%
2023/24, Oilers 35.5% 31.0% 31.2%
2024/25, Oilers 40.1% 35.4% 35.3%

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Considering how much bigger and more skilled the goalies are, and how much tighter teams are playing defence, it doesn’t make sense to create shots from low-percentage scoring areas. We’re seeing a trend in shooters taking fewer shots, and making more east-west plays to create higher quality chances and improve their odds of scoring. Maybe it’s the lack of passing talent on the Oilers blue line causing this, or just the team getting used to one another after so many roster changes. But it’ll need to be addressed if the team wants to improve their shooting percentage – and start climbing back up the standings.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Related:

Slow start, sketchy goaltending and finding defence pairs

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Not the best start for the Edmonton Oilers, who currently rank seventh in the Pacific division with a points percentage of 0.400 (2-3-0), and 13th in the western conference. Early days of course, but what’s really stood out to me are the high profile losses.

After all the hype in the off-season about the team, the Oilers get crushed by Winnipeg on home ice in their season opener. Then they lose on the national stage on Hockey Night in Canada to Chicago. And then they lose to Calgary, of all teams, on home ice. The Oilers can rip off a long winning streak to make up for the lost points, but it’ll be hard to forget this start.

Goaltending has again been a factor in the team’s poor start to the season, as it ranks as one of the worst in the league in every game-state. What was especially alarming were some of the comments from Stuart Skinner after the first game where he talked about how fast the game felt and being unprepared. (Source: Edmonton Oilers)

I think that the game was a little too quick for me and I just wasn’t up to speed and that’s on me just in the way that I was playing. Maybe it was too much aggression on my part where I probably should have played, you know, read the game probably a little bit better.

Thought this was a bit of a red flag, and reflects poorly on the coaching staff who had plenty of time in training camp and the pre-season games to get everyone prepared – especially the goaltenders. Makes you wonder what the pace was like for the goaltending and if the coaching staff, from the head coach to the goalie coach, were aligned.

The other interesting comments regarding Skinner came from analyst, and former goalie, Steve Valiquette on the Real Kyper and Bourne show highlighting how poorly Skinner performs with chances on the rush.

We had four data scientists looking at all of our data this year. I really wanted to get to understand hockey better. And over the past decade we’ve identified now three predictors that lead to Stanley Cup success. You have to have strong special teams. You have to have settled offense at five on five. And you’ve got to have a strong odd man rush – and that’s for and against.

The area that Stuart Skinner really struggles with is the east to west game. Whether it’s at five-on-five in-zone or off the rush, his movement side-to-side is – to be fair, and it’s tough to say because you’re talking about the top 64 guys in the league – but he’s the worst of those 64. The nicest way to put it is he lacks confidence and he doesn’t get east to west well.

If that’s the case, there’s no wonder the Oilers coaching staff spent so much time last season reducing those rush chances against. And they’ll have to continue doing so, even with a lot of new players across the roster.

Speaking of which, below are how the skaters have done so far this season at even-strength (5v5). The tables are separated by position and sorted by ice-time. A simple heat map has been applied to show how each player compares with their own group.

First the forwards.

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The on-ice numbers mostly align with what I’ve noticed. Some of the more experienced, top six guys like Hyman and especially Nugent-Hopkins have been underperforming. I don’t think Nugent-Hopkins can function as a sole-center on a line any more, so I’d keep him with either McDavid or Draisaitl. The issue is that Draisaitl is also someone who needs to be on a line with a second centerman, so he can’t be on his own either. The Oilers will almost always have a line that other teams could exploit at even-strength.

The Oilers are getting decent minutes from some of the new additions like Arvidsson, Podkolzin and Skinner, as well as Henrique. The team is doing better with them on the ice, and the results should start to turn around. It’ll be interesting to see how the coaching staff deploys this group, and if they have the courage to experiment a little more.

And below are the on-ice numbers for the Oilers defencemen.

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The top pairing of Ekholm and Bouchard is quite solid and helping tilt the ice. And Kulak has been steady with whoever his partner has been. The concern remains with the second pairing as Nurse has continued to struggle, with the team more often playing without the puck when he’s on the ice. As I mentioned prior to the season starting, the rest of the defensive options have been depth players for the majority of their careers, so it’s hard seeing any of them move up the depth chart. None have shown the ability to help boost their defensive partner’s on-ice numbers, which is something Nurse will need for that second pair to be successful.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Couple thoughts ahead of a pressure-filled 2024/25 regular season

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It’s been a little weird seeing how much hype there is around the Edmonton Oilers heading into the season. They’re obviously in that championship contender category, coming off a deep playoff run this past spring. And they have the high-end talent that will help drive results.

I’m just seeing a few too many question marks around the roster, so I’m not as confident as the general public about the Oilers this season.

For one, I’m not sold on the goaltending as Stuart Skinner has had a lot of ups and downs over the course of his career. I view him as an average goalie, not someone who can steal wins like some of the other elite level goalies. And don’t get me wrong, average goaltending can be good enough. I just don’t think the Oilers did enough to mitigate the risk of his play falling off, like what’s happened to him early on in regular seasons. Pickard as a backup is fine, but can you trust him for an extended period in case Skinner needs time away? I’m not completely sold.

The other issue is around the third and fourth lines, which looks significantly slower than last season. I don’t like the idea of Henrique centering Janmark and Brown. And then a fourth line with two players over 37 years old. Hoping Podkolzin can make an impact, and you have Philp and Savoie as options down the road. But for now, that bottom six is a perfect target for opposing teams. I think you need some more speed and skill to be effective in those minutes. Keep in mind too – guys like McLeod, Holloway and Foegele posted some of the best on-ice shot-share numbers for Edmonton last season, and were a big reason why the bottom six was improving. It’ll be interesting to see if the team’s shot-share numbers at even-strength take a hit, especially when McDavid isn’t on the ice.

The Oilers top six is arguably one of the best in the league. But there’s a few guys that are at risk of regression. Hyman for one, likely won’t reach 50 goals again based on his career shooting percentage levels. Nugent-Hopkins was pretty quiet in the playoffs and has had periods throughout the last few seasons where his on-ice shot share numbers were lower than expected. I’m also tempering my expectations for Arvidsson whose skillset is very valuable when he’s healthy. Coming off a shortened season, you don’t know how quickly a player can get back up to speed – similar to what happened to Connor Brown last year. Draisaitl is also someone who I’ve always felt needs a centerman on his line to be effective, so I don’t know how well he’ll work with J. Skinner and Arvidsson. Skinner, while very productive, is also going to frustrate some with his defensive play. Expecting some line-tinkering early on in the year.

As for the blue line, I’m not quite sure what to expect. The team is taking a risk relying on Emberson, Stecher, Dermott and J. Brown to be regulars. Emberson has the most potential but lacks experience. Stecher, Dermott and J. Brown have a history of being depth guys at best, so it’s hard to imagine them taking on larger roles over an extended period for Edmonton. It’ll also be interesting to see which defenceman take on penalty kill minutes. Assumed Emberson and J. Brown were going to replace Ceci’s and Desharnais’ minutes. But now with Brown sent down, it might have to be Dermott.

It’s going to be a fascinating season for the Edmonton Oilers who have a lot of pressure on them to win a championship. And if things go sideways early on, it’ll be critical that the coaching staff, and potentially management, act quickly.

The Oilers need to avoid having bad start for the third season in a row

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The Edmonton Oilers head into the 2024/25 regular season with high expectations, and understandably so. Their group of forwards have two of the best players in the world in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, along with a good supporting cast. Their defence has some high-end talent in Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm. And the team is coming off a playoff run where they were one win away from a championship.

Plenty will need to go right for the team to make another deep run in the playoffs. But before even getting there, the team really needs to have a good start to the regular season, which is something they’ve had trouble with the last two years now. A poor start has many downstream effects, including having to overplay players in important positions, like goaltending, just to make up ground in the standings. And not being able to rest star players to keep them fresh for the playoffs. A good start can also increase their odds of winning their division and securing home-ice advantage for the post-season. Something that hasn’t happened since the dynasty years.

Recent history

Two years ago, the Edmonton Oilers started the 2022/23 regular season with ten wins and ten losses in their first 20 games, ranking 20th in the league with a 0.500 points percentage. They were outscored 66-72 in all situations and had the fifth worst goal-share (42.86%) at even-strength (5v5) getting outscored 33-44. And while their powerplay was one of the best in the league, all their goals were wiped away by their penalty kill that allowed the fourth highest rate of goals against.

And last season’s start was even worse. In their first twenty games, they had seven wins, twelve losses and one overtime loss. This had them 29th in the league with a 0.375 points percentage, and only three points ahead of San Jose in the Pacific division. They were outscored 66-74 in all situations, and 38-46 at even-strength. That’s a goal-share of only 45.24%, which had them 26th in the league. And they had the same issue on special teams where the powerplay was outstanding (+16 goal differential), but their penalty kill was erasing all their success (-15 goal differential). Things eventually turned around, but it was a massive lift.

So what were the factors that caused these poor starts for the Edmonton Oilers?

Goaltending

The Oilers goaltending has struggled out of the gate two seasons in a row. In the first twenty games of the 2022/23 season, their team save percentage in all situations was 89.57 percent, which ranked 23rd in the league and 10th in the western conference. And in the first twenty games of the 2023/24 season, their team save percentage was 87.11 percent, which was 31st in the league and dead last in the western conference. A lot of the problems were on the penalty kill, especially earlier in the 2023/24 season where despite the Oilers doing a good job limiting the rate of shots and chances against, the goaltending was terrible ranking 25th in the league with a save percentage of 81.82 percent.

Skinner has the starting role, but it’s critical that the Oilers have a solid backup option ready in case he falters like he has in the past.

Poor finishing at even-strength

In the early parts of both seasons, the Oilers as a team had a lot of trouble burying their chances. Two seasons ago, they started the season with a 7.02 percent shooting percentage, which ranked 31st in the league. And they started last season with a 7.58 percent shooting percentage, which ranked 25th.  League average shooting percentage over the last three seasons has been 8.55 percent, and the Oilers have been right around there with an 8.77 percent shooting percentage. Considering the talent level they have and the amount of money allocated to offensive players, their shooting percentage has to be better to start the season.

Which leads to the next factor.

Star players starting poorly

Last season, Connor McDavid had a rough start relative to his own standards – specifically at even-strength. McDavid didn’t look like himself, along with other teammates, likely driven by the fact that they started training camp earlier than normal, which resulted in injuries. McDavid himself missed a couple games and put up only eight even-strength points in his first 17 games – a point per hour rate of only 1.79. For context, McDavid has posted a rate just under three points per hour over the course of his career. So, this was exceptionally low relative to his career levels. His season did turn around soon after, and he went on to dominate the rest of the season. But it was a good reminder of how critical he is to the team’s success, and how difficult it is to replace his production when he’s not at 100 percent.

A similar issue had occurred the season prior when Leon Draisaitl struggled out of the gate in 2022/23. In the first twenty games that season, Draisaitl had only nine even-strength points, which translated to a points per hour rate of 1.76. That’s well below his career points per hour rate of 2.41 and the 2.51 he’s posted over the last three seasons. One contributing factor to his lack of production early that season was how often the Oilers played without the puck when he was on the ice. His on-ice share of shots and scoring were some of the worst on the team, with his Expected Goals For percentage sitting at 44.51 percent.

It took playing more often with McDavid to give those numbers a boost and at a production level closer to what we would expect from Draisaitl. Plus he needed to get healthier. Draisaitl was coming off a significant injury sustained in the playoffs that spring – so it was understandable that he would struggle. But again, it highlighted how important he is to the team’s early-season success and the lack of depth on the roster that season.

Thoughts

It’ll be interesting to see how the Oilers start the year after making a deep run in the playoffs and turning over a significant number of players on the roster. The hope is that everyone is healthy, and that training camp has given the group enough time to implement their tactics and build familiarity with one another. Goaltending will need to be league-average, along with the team’s ability to finish their chances. And if the star players can start off strong, that should alleviate some pressure and improve the team’s odds of winning the division.

It’ll be on management and the coaching staff to not only monitor and evaluate the team’s progress, but also address issues that come up as quickly as possible. Without those risk mitigation plans in place, a poor start can potentially derail a team’s championship aspirations.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Could defenceman Rasmus Ristolainen be a target for the Oilers?

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

The Edmonton Oilers are starting the regular season with a lot of uncertainty with their defensive group.

We know what to expect from Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm and Brett Kulak. But Darnell Nurse is dealing with an injury from the playoff run and isn’t attending training camp. Ty Emberson and Troy Stecher have the potential to be regular options on the right side, which is lacking depth. But there’s no guarantees there. And then there’s Josh Brown, who I wouldn’t have high expectations for considering his on-ice numbers at even-strength, which have consistently been poor. I’m still not sure how he landed a three-year deal.

It remains to be seen how training camp shakes out and if any other players emerge as defensive options, including Travis Dermott, who is on a PTO and Max Wanner, who’s 21, shoots right, and has developed well in Bakersfield. For now, though, it’s the bets management has made and what they have heading into the season. And the Oilers will likely do what they can to accrue cap space and make enhancements to their blueline later in the season – depending of course, on how the current group performs.

If the Oilers do eventually pursue a right-hand defenceman who has term left, I’d suspect they would want someone with experience and someone they have a better handle on. The one name that’s come up a few times in the local market is Finnish defenceman Rasmus Ristolainen. Selected eighth overall in the 2013 entry draft, Ristolainen has played 713 NHL games for Buffalo and Philadelphia. Ristolainen turns 30 this fall and is in the third year of a five year contract he signed with Philadelphia in 2022 with an annual cap hit of $5.1 million.

To make the financials work, the Oilers would probably need Philadelphia to retain a good portion of Ristolainen’s contract, which would cost them extra assets. But before doing that, it’s worth looking at a few things, including Ristolainen’s usage over his career, his on-ice shot-share numbers at even-strength, and what his impacts are on the penalty kill (an area that the Oilers might need help with after the departures of Cody Ceci and Vincent Desharnais). All of this will give us a better sense around what kind of value someone like Ristolainen could bring to the Oilers.

Usage at five-on-five

Ristolainen entered the league in 2013 with high expectations and was given a lot of responsibility by the Buffalo Sabres. Management there had done a poor job at constructing the roster, and they didn’t have many options for the coaching staff. So, throughout his eight seasons in Buffalo, Ristolainen played some of the highest minutes in the league and in all situations, especially at even-strength.

Below is the average number of even-strength minutes Ristolainen played by season, with his highest rate of minutes coming as a 22-year-old in 2016-17. Since then, his ice time has gradually declined, especially in his second and third years in Philadelphia, where he’s averaged just over 16 minutes a game. Last season, Ristolainen dealt with significant injuries and played only 31 games, which impacted his ice time. He underwent surgery for a ruptured triceps tendon in April and is expected to be fit to play this upcoming season.

What really stands out from Ristolainen’s time in Buffalo was the extreme amount of time he played against elite-level competition – well above 40 percent in some seasons. He was consistently given some of the highest proportions in the league among defencemen and didn’t fare too well. Again, the Sabres didn’t exactly surround him with good talent, and they missed the playoffs every year because of their shoddy decision-making, so he was typically the best and only option. Below is a breakdown of the competition levels Ristolainen faced using the methodology from PuckIQ.

Philadelphia appears to have recognized that Ristolainen was getting way too much responsibility in Buffalo and had a plan to put him in a position to succeed once they acquired him. In the last few seasons with the Flyers, we see that his proportion of ice time against elite competition has dropped to more reasonable levels – around 30 percent. This is where he probably should have been, considering that his on-ice numbers in Buffalo were so poor.

On-ice results at five-on-five

What this reduced responsibility in Philadelphia appears to have done is help improve Ristolainen’s on-ice shot-differential numbers. Playing so many minutes, and a lot of those minutes against elite competition, Ristolainen played a lot of time without the puck, and his numbers reflected that. The Sabres consistently struggled to outshoot and out chance opponents, and those numbers were even worse when Ristolainen was on the ice. Again, he didn’t have a lot of help on that team. Plus he was definitely in over his head with the assignments the coaching staff gave him.

Below are Ristolainen’s relative-to-team shot-differential numbers by season. I tend to use Corsi, a proxy for puck possession, and Fenwick and Expected goals as a proxy for scoring chances.

We see here that with Ristolainen on the ice, the Sabres fared much worse and saw their shot and chance differentials negatively impacted. Again, a lot has to do with his assignments. But it was painfully obvious that he shouldn’t have played all those minutes and needed fewer minutes and responsibility. When he got to Philadelphia, he did get a lot of minutes in his first season, but as we saw in the PuckIQ numbers, he was playing a lower proportion against elite-level players compared to previous years in Buffalo. What this did was help his on-ice shot-differential numbers, as we saw that the Flyers did better with him than without him. In his second season as a 28-year-old Flyer, his numbers dipped again, but that might have to do with the injuries he sustained and the fact that he’s aging and dealing with some wear and tear.

Penalty kill

Another area that Ristolainen has a lot of experience with is the penalty kill. He was regularly on the first unit in Buffalo, and that usage continued during his first two seasons with Philadelphia. What’s worth noting is that while in Buffalo, Ristolainen’s on-ice rate of shots against was quite high relative to his teammates and well above the normal levels for first-unit penalty kills. His numbers, however, have gradually improved since joining Philadelphia, so it might have been the system and linemates in Buffalo that could have been impacting his numbers. If, for whatever reason, the Oilers penalty kill struggles early on, expect Ristolainen’s name to come up more often in the market.

Thoughts

It’ll be interesting to see if we continue hearing about Ristolainen being a potential addition to the Oilers’ right side on the blue line. He’s got the experience and name recognition, and the term left on his current deal would be manageable. However, the Oilers will need to give up assets to have Philadelphia or another team retain part of the salary to make his contract fit. And that’s where the Oilers must determine what value Ristolainen brings and if it’s worth giving up those assets. From his recent numbers, there appears to be value as he can hold his own on a second pairing at even strength and can play on the penalty kill. The one concern with Ristolainen is health, how he recovers from the tricep surgery and if he can stay healthy.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Puckpedia, PuckIQ

Also posted at Oilersnation.