Joined Lowetide on Monday morning on TSN 1260 to talk about the Oilers, the Hall-for-Larsson trade, what to expect from Milan Lucic, center depth and potential moves on defence. Full audio is here (starts around the 25 minute mark):
Related links:
Should the Oilers consider adding Milan Lucic this summer? – The Copper & Blue
Looking into Milan Lucic … Again – The Copper & Blue
Thoughts on the Hall Trade – The SuperFan
Trading a star player is never easy, especially when the return fails to meet expectations. Adam Larsson is a good player, someone who can play in your top four, and be reliable in his own zone. He fills a need on the right side, and gives the team more options when it comes to line matching and deployment. But the fact is, the Oilers lost an elite winger, someone who has put up very impressive numbers, despite never having a legitimate defence core behind him.
One thing I do wonder is if Hall’s decline in powerplay productivity had any influence on the team trading him away. One metric that I look to to determine a player’s value on the powerplay is Fenwick For/60 (the rate at which the team generate shots that are unblocked with the man advantage – check out Objective NHL for more ). Hall typically leads the team in FF/60 RelTM by a far margin every year, but this past season, for whatever reason, his numbers took a hit (Source: Hockey Analysis)
I only came across this a few months ago when I was digging into the team’s powerplay struggles. My guess is that because there are so many left handed shots, and, as pointed out in the comments section, Hall and Draisaitl set up around the same area of the ice. I’m not 100% sure what was going on, but I’m hoping this isn’t one of the reasons Hall got dealt.
As for Larsson, the Oilers are getting a defensive defenceman, who I think has been limited offensively because of the Devils style of play. A good review of the trade, including a profile of Hall and Larsson can be found over at All About the Jersey. An excerpt:
According to Corsica, Greene and Larsson had the highest time on ice quality of competition, or the weighted average of the time on ice percentage of their opponents. They also started in their own end of the rink around 44% of the time, also the most among Devils defensemen at 5-on-5. Who led the penalty kill on defense? You guessed it, Greene-Larsson. They both got wrecked from a possession standpoint, also according to Corsica. From this past season. Larsson’s CF% (44.59%) and relative CF% (-2.45%) does not look good at all. However, those figures should not have surprised anyone since the Devils only bested Colorado in CF% last season. #5 (and #6) had to play a lot of defense in 2015-16 and did their best from getting entirely overwhelmed. To me, it is more of the fault of the team and its systems as opposed to Larsson or Greene being porous. If nothing else, Larsson showed he could handle it for twenty-two and a half minutes per game, per NHL.com. For less than $4.2 million per year on the salary cap, I think Larsson provided good value.
We can also get a quick snapshot ofusing the HERO charts.
Here we see again an offensively challenged defenceman, but someone who plays the tougher minutes (more defensive zone starts against the oppositions top lines) and actually comes out okay. The team does better when it comes to xGF% (a measure of shot quality) with Larsson on the bench, but that might be because of how he’s deployed.
David Johnson from HockeyAnalysis.com also did a deep dive into Larsson’s numbers and came away with this:
To conclude, I believe the Oilers may have picked up a real good defensive defenseman, maybe one the leagues best (still a bit early to say that yet). I look at a guy like Hjalmarsson in Chicago. He doesn’t get all the accolades of Toews, Kane, Keith or even Seabrook but he is an incredibly valuable players on that team an done of the best defensive defensemen in the league. If the Oilers get this in Larsson they will be filling a much needed and an incredibly important role. Is that worth Taylor Hall? Almost certainly not but Larsson could be an incredibly important player for them for the next decade and guys like him don’t grow on trees either.
I’m of the sense that the Oilers defence improved today, but it was for a very high cost. I understand the current situation of the team and the lack of right shot options out there. It just should not cost you an elite winger like Hall. What is most frustrating is how the Oilers got themselves in this situation. A complete disregard for player development, especially defencemen, started in 2006 with Pronger’s departure and continued on for a decade. The club operated at one point without a proper farm team before finally realizing that their prospects need a place to develop and mature into proper NHL players. It was under Tambellini that the Oilers committed themselves to the idea of a development system and actually churned out some good players through Oklahoma City. And when these players were ready (i.e., Petry, Marincin), the club traded them away, for reasons I still don’t completely understand.
What should be alarming is the fact that the same mindset and strategy that got us in this mess of trading Hall is still lingering in the organization. We saw last year how the club had to dress Nurse and watch him struggle on a regular basis. We saw Reinhart get developed at the NHL level last season rather than spend a full season, or two, in Bakersfield before moving up. Really, the Oilers should have enough NHL calibre defencemen in the lineup so that the prospects can develop at the right levels. If the team does not change their approach to defenceman development and deployment, we’ll for sure be trading away another highly touted player in a few years to fill a hole.
One last thing that’s been on my mind with Hall being traded away is that 2009/10 season that got us Hall in the first place. It was the year that the Oilers truly tanked to ensure that they got the top pick. It was a season where the team genuinely did not care about winning and did everything it possibly could to sewer the season. Fans had to sit through Ryan Potulny and Sam Gagner as centers. Jeff Deslauriers dressed in 48 games. And the defence was barely AHL calibre with Souray being cast away. The club finished 27-47-8, good for a 0.378 points percentage). Source: Hockey Reference.
Bigger than the actual Hall trade is how we got to this point and what the many warning signs were that something like this would happen. The poor drafting record outside of the first round (Mitch Moroz, David Musil), the poor player development (Sam Gagner, every defencemen drafted), the poor personnel and contract management (Jeff Petry, Sheldon Souray)…these are all the things that have lead to Hall’s departure. Without recognizing these cases from the past 10 years and changing their approach on how they operate, the Oilers are bound to repeat these mistakes and soon.
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I came across an interesting article from Sportsnet last week regarding the plus/minus stat and really how useless it is. In my mind, it’s fine as a counting stat, but when people rely on it to make comparisons between two players and evaluate individual performances with it, it’s painful to watch.
Featured in the article was former Oiler Patrick O’Sullivan who had a brief stint with the club, arriving at the end of the 2008/09 season, and departing the summer after the 2009/10 season. If you recall, the 2009/10 season was an absolute tank job by the Oilers, as they purposely dressed a weak roster, and failed to make any changes to improve their performance. O’Sullivan finished the season with 7 goals, and 14 assists at even-strength that season, good for 6th on the roster in total points. He played the fifth most minutes among forwards (which includes total ice time and ice time per game). His 1.38 points per 60 at evens ranked 9th among his peers, which was a drop from his previous two seasons in Los Angeles. In 2007/08, he notched 33 points (1.87 points per 60, 4th among regular forwards) and in 2008/09, he notched 29 points (1.61 points per 60, 3rd among regular forwards). O’Sullivan finished the 2009/10 season with a -35, the worst in the league, and is something that the player was obviously impacted by.
He’s able to laugh about it now, but he still believes the distinction hurt his standing in the league.
“It was one of the things that really hurt me for the rest of my career,” O’Sullivan says. – Sportsnet Magazine
We know that plus/minus is a terrible stat, but I wanted to see what some of the more modern metrics (i.e., possession, goal share, etc) can tell us about O’Sullivan’s 2009/10 season. What I’ve done below is show O’Sullivan’s relative-to-team stats when it comes to possession (Corsi For), shots on goal, expected goals (a measure of shot quality) and goals, season by season (Source: Corsica Hockey). I’ve also included O’Sullivan’s point totals in Appendix A.
Here we see that O’Sullivan had a couple of good seasons prior to joining Edmonton, and across the board, his team typically did better when he was on the ice than when he was on the bench. When he got to Edmonton, things went south fast. In 2008/09, O’Sullivan dressed in the final 19 games of the season in Edmonton, but in that time we saw a decline in his performance. The Oilers’ share of goals (in green) when O’Sullivan hit the ice was terrible relative to his teammates, and was actually one of the worst in the league.
A simple way to find out why this was happening is by looking at the individual player’s PDO, which sums up the on-ice save percentage with the on-ice shooting percentage, and measures the luck. In O’Sulivan’s two seasons in LA, his PDO was just slightly below 100, meaning that he wasn’t riding any sort of high on-ice save or shooting percentages. In Edmonton, his PDO was 96.13, one of the lowest in the league. This was caused by a slightly lower than team and league average shooting percentage (6.44%) and a significantly lower than average on-ice save percentage (89.68%).
The Oilers goaltending ranked fifth worst in the league when it came to save percentage at even-strength in 2009/10, with 90.93. And this save percentage dropped even further below from the league average when O’Sullivan was on the ice, which might explain that low proportion of goals. What’s interesting is that O’Sullivan was doing okay when it came to shot quality (i.e., scoring chances, rebounds, rush shots and shot distance), but the team’s goaltending couldn’t stop the scoring chances against on a regular basis.
What’s also worth noting are the linemates O’Sullivan spent the most time with in Edmonton that season. Below are the linemates he played at least 50 minutes with at even-strength, along with the breakdown of the different metrics, including PDO.
| Horcoff & Jacques | Penner & Gagner | Potulny & Brule | Potulny & Nilsson | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOI | 91.80 | 60.02 | 55.29 | 53.47 |
| CF% | 41.50 | 41.23 | 43.43 | 51.59 |
| Rel.CF% | -7.23 | -5.36 | -5.22 | 4.00 |
| SF% | 42.86 | 41.07 | 44.83 | 50.00 |
| Rel.SF% | -6.27 | -6.00 | -5.69 | 1.25 |
| xGF% | 35.55 | 40.78 | 38.48 | 49.70 |
| Rel.xGF% | -13.79 | -8.84 | -9.51 | 3.22 |
| GF% | 20.00 | 57.14 | 20.00 | 25.00 |
| Rel.GF% | -34.72 | 9.42 | -16.00 | -19.12 |
| PDO | 86.67 | 108.30 | 91.35 | 93.55 |
| Sh% | 6.67 | 17.39 | 3.85 | 3.23 |
| Sv% | 80.00 | 90.91 | 87.50 | 90.32 |
Being paired with Horcoff meant O’Sullivan would play a more shut-down role, which he never did in LA and it showed. Along with a fringe player like Jacques, the trio mustered a 41.50% Corsi For%, well below the league average and far from their team average. What’s staggering is the on-ice save percentage when that trio was together, which fell from being bad to being garbage at 80.00%. And playing alongside Ryan Potulny, who only played a handful of games at the NHL level after contributing to the tank job, didn’t help much either. O’Sullivan saw the on-ice shooting percentage fall significantly when paired with Potulny, which makes sense considering his lack of NHL ability.
Thoughts
O’Sullivan should definitely be pissed about the -35 rating in 2009/10, and can probably thank the Oilers for orchestrating their epic tank job that season. But when we look past the dated stat of plus/minus, we see that O’Sullivan’s low share of goals and shots that season was thanks in large part to two things: garbage goaltending and terrible linemates. This isn’t to say that O’Sullivan should be off the hook here; he should still take some of the blame for his lines poor performance. But the fact is, he had the ability to contribute at the NHL level when he was acquired and was quickly put in a position to fail by management.
Appendix A: Patrick O’Sullivan’s point totals
| Season | Team | Games | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | TOI/GM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006-07 | LAK | 44 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -6 | 14 | 14:04 |
| 2007-08 | LAK | 82 | 22 | 31 | 53 | -8 | 36 | 18:42 |
| 2008-09 | LAK | 62 | 14 | 23 | 37 | 1 | 16 | 19:26 |
| 2008-09 | EDM | 19 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 12 | 18:14 |
| 2009-10 | EDM | 73 | 11 | 23 | 34 | -35 | 32 | 17:31 |
| 2010-11 | CAR | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 8:52 |
| 2010-11 | MIN | 21 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2 | 13:46 |
| 2011-12 | PHX | 23 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 | 11:03 |
| Career | 334 | 58 | 103 | 161 | -61 | 116 | 16:49 |
Source: Hockey Reference
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Heading into the summer, the Oilers appear to be set at center ice, with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as the pivots. It’s been a long time since the club has had some semblance of depth at center, so it’d be unwise to tinker with it too much in the off season. The other factor to consider is Draisaitl possibly playing both center and wing, depending on the in-game situation, similar to how Todd McLellan deployed Joe Pavelski in San Jose. If Draisaitl is in fact used as a bit of a utility player, it’s imperative that the Oilers bolster the bottom six and acquire a centerman (or two) that can perform well and produce.
Both Anton Lander and Mark Letestu struggled mightily last year at even-strength, combining for a whopping four primary assists. I expect Letestu to be back as he did perform well on the powerplay, but Lander’s future is a little more murky, considering he was often scratched to make way for Hendricks, and at one point Pakarinen, to play the fouth line center role. All things considered, it’s hard to ignore the glaring weakness that was the bottom six last season.
Looking at the options for next season, the Oilers could potentially bring back Letestu as the fourth line center behind McDavid, RNH and Draisaitl. What I would highly recommend the Oilers do though is bring in additional centermen, preferably a right shot, on the cheap, have them play wing and fill in at center when needed. This might be overkill, but consider the fact that the Ducks and Penguins both dipped into the bargain bin last summer to have depth at center: Anaheim brought in Shawn Horcoff and Mike Santorelli, while Pittsburgh brought in Eric Fehr and Matt Cullen.
One player that’s worth looking into is 27 year old Riley Nash, who was not qualified by the Carolina Hurricanes and appears to be headed to free agency. Nash was selected by the Oilers in 2007, 22nd overall, and completed three years at Cornell before being traded to the Hurricanes for a second round pick. There appeared to have been some issues between the player and the Oilers at the time, with Nash likely headed to free agency after his college career.
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
The Oilers may have finished the 2015/16 season near the bottom of the league, but looking a little deeper into the stats we see that the club improved in a few areas that are critical for winning games. First, they improved their overall share of goals at even-strength, going from 40.46% last season, up to 45.38%. That’s a significant jump, and was the third biggest change from the season prior across all 30 teams, behind Arizona and Florida. Goal share is obviously important, but we know that there is a lot of luck involved in scoring goals, with some teams riding higher than average shooting or save percentages to pad their goal-share stats.
Knowing that, it’s important to look into a team’s share of total shot attempts (i.e. Corsi For%) which serves as a good proxy for possession, as well as expected goals, which measures shot quality and scoring chances as determined by Corisca Hockey. When it came to possession, the Oilers finished with 48.71% of all shot attempts (adjusted for score, zone and venue), good for 20th in the league, and up from 46.98% last season (26th overall). When it came to their share of expected goals, the Oilers made a significant jump from last season, going from a 43.32% share (28th league wide), up to 49.24% (20th overall). Below is a graph of the Oilers share of shot attempts (i.e., Corsi For%) over the past nine seasons, as well as their share of expected goals (xGF%).
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
I joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 this past Monday to talk all things Oilers. Full clip is below:
Since last summer, the Oilers have struggled to carve out a solid defence core that contained a balance of skill, size and experience. And heading into the draft and free agency, it’s become apparent to everyone that the OIlers will likely be making a move or two to enhance the blue line and hopefully push for a playoff spot this upcoming season.
One thing that has become lost in the discussion is the effectiveness of the Sekera-Fayne pairing this past season and why maintaining that tandem is critical for the Oilers. Sekera and Fayne played over 600 minutes together in 2015/16, the most among all pairings in Edmonton, and averaged over 23% of the team’s total ice time at even-strength when together, often leading the team on a nightly basis. Whatever your position is on these two players, they were the number one pairing for the OIlers last season and actually fared well when it came to possession metrics as well as expected goals (which factors in shot location and quality as defined by Corsica Hockey).
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
Prior to the 2015/16 season starting, I spent some time re-watching San Jose games to get a sense of their style of play and their overall tactics with McLellan behind the bench. We knew historically the Sharks had been a very good team, one that was properly constructed with depth and balance across the roster, and had the ability to outshoot and outscore opponents on a fairly regular basis. But I was curious to see how certain types of players, mainly the ones on defence, were being utilized and what we could expect for the Oilers under a new coaching staff.
What stood out to me from re-watching these games was how often the Sharks would shoot the puck, and how quickly they would get a shot on goal soon after entering the zone. It was obvious that they would crash the net fairly quickly, getting opposing defencemen on their heels, and rely on their skilled forwards to create second and third chances from rebounds.
Defencemen were typically dumping in the puck, and could rely on their forwards to retrieve it. And if they crossed the blue line, defencemen were very good at getting shots on goal, leading to second chances. To confirm what I was seeing, I looked into what proportion of the Sharks total shot attempts came from defencemen, and how they measured up to the rest of the league.
Here we see that under McLellan (2008/09 – 2014/15), the team saw the shot attempts from the defence core gradually increase to about 35-40% of the team total at even-strength. The Oilers on the other hand, were typically below league average (~30%) when it came to shot attempts from the blueline and saw a bump in their proportion in 2014/15 under Eakins and Nelson (Source: Corsica Hockey).
Now with McLellan behind the bench this past season, the Oilers defencemen generated about 35% of the team’s total shot attempts, well above the league average, and closer in line with what the Sharks have done in the past. If we break the proportion of shot attempts into rolling 25-game averages over the course of the 2015/16 season, the Oilers actually did get up to 40% at one point, which just happens to be around the time that the Oilers had a Corsi For percentage above 50% [Copper & Blue]. And when the defencemen started generating fewer shots closer to the end of the season, well that’s also when the team’s overall possession numbers went into the tank.
I can’t say for certain that there’s a direct correlation between the proportion of shot attempts from defencemen and the teams overall possession numbers. But it does appear that McLellan shifted away from his strategy of getting shots from defencemen and letting forwards crash the net for rebounds. Early on in the season, the coaching staff did emphasize volume shooting and the importance of getting shots from the blueline, but for whatever reason, McLellan appears to have relied on his defencemen less for shot attempts and relied more on his forwards to funnel shots towards the goal. My thought is that McLellan’s original strategy did a better job of sustaining pressure in the offensive zone, which would lead to better possession numbers (similar to the 25 game stretch this season).
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Oilers lost Brandon Davidson right around the 67 game mark, which is also when the Oilers started to crater when it came to possession numbers. As a depth defenceman, Davidson was quite effective at generating shot attempts, ranking near the top when it came to individual shot attempts per 60 this season.
| Player | Games | iCF/60 |
| ADAM CLENDENING | 20 | 11.8 |
| DARNELL NURSE | 69 | 11.7 |
| BRANDON DAVIDSON | 51 | 10.9 |
| ANDREJ SEKERA | 81 | 10.7 |
| ERIC GRYBA | 53 | 10.6 |
| OSCAR KLEFBOM | 30 | 10.1 |
| MARK FAYNE | 69 | 7.8 |
| JORDAN OESTERLE | 17 | 7.5 |
| JUSTIN SCHULTZ | 45 | 7.5 |
| GRIFFIN REINHART | 29 | 7.4 |
Not suggesting here that losing Davidson is the reason why the team’s possession numbers took a hit. But it appears that after losing him, McLellan looked to his forwards to generate original shot attempts, moving away form his shot-from-the-blue strategy.
Take aways:
It’s that time of year when really anything is possible, so speculation is rampant about how the Oilers could acquire and who should be dealt. With the draft coming up, there’s a ton of information on prospects with (at times) excessive discussion on which player might get drafted where. For the Oilers, my hope is that they trade the fourth overall pick as part of a package to acquire help on defence. I suspect that it won’t be a direct transaction and that the Oilers acquire a top six forward, and then move out one the current players to land that much needed defenceman. Having said that, if the Oilers keep the pick, they have to take the best player available (regardless of position) and let them stew at the right level until they’re ready to make the jump.
Couple other thoughts:
The SuperFan 