Author: sunilagni

Shawn Horcoff’s 2015/16 Season

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment

Shawn-Horcoff--Anaheim-Ducks-jpgLast summer , I put together a case for the Oilers to bring back Shawn Horcoff as a way to solidify their depth and give support to the young forwards.  Obviously a long shot that he’d actually come back to Edmonton as a free agent. But he was worth a look as he put together two decent seasons in Dallas as a depth winger, and would’ve been a cheap signing.

Articles are here:

Bringing Back Horcoff
Bringing Back Horcoff (Part 2)
Brincing Back Horcoff (Part 3)

I was happy to see that Horcoff signed with the Ducks as it gave him a great chance to win the cup and cap off a great career. I didn’t expect him to play a whole lot to be honest, as I figured he would be a fill-in for Nate Thompson while he was recovering from surgery. But when I checked in in December, not only was Horcoff still playing at center even with Thompson back, but his ice-time had gradually increased from the start of the season.

Horcoff actually finished the season well scoring 13 even-strength points in 59 games (Source: War on Ice), good for 9th on team among forwards (over 250 minutes of ice time). And his 1.22 points/60 wasn’t too far off from his six year average of 1.28. Looking at his Relative to Team metrics, we see below that while the team did slightly better possession wise without Horcoff on the ice, the Ducks actually generated more high-danger scoring chances when Horcoff was on the ice (+3.62), ranking him 2nd on the team behind Ryan Getzlaf. This appears to have translated into more goals, as the team got a higher share of total goals at even-strength when Horcoff was out there (+2.03), ranking him 6th on the team this season. Worth noting that luck (i.e., PDO) does not appear to have been a factor as the team wasn’t getting a higher-than-normal shooting percentage (only 6.33%) with Horcoff on the ice, and his personal shooting percentage was lower than his six-year average.  I’ve also included expected goals, which captures shot quality and factors in the type and location of the shot (Source: Corsica Hockey).

 

Horcoff Profile 2

The key takeaway from this table is that comparing this season’s numbers with his six year average, things aren’t too far off and in some areas, he was better than his average. Considering Horcoff is turning 38 this fall, I figured we’d start to see a decline in productivity but that hasdn’t been the case this past season.

Unfortunately for him, the 20-game suspension for taking a banned substance is what will likely define his season. It’s also hard to overlook the fact that Horcoff is 38 soon and has been dealing with injuries and may even consider retiring. But seeing what he could do as a depth player this past season, I think more than a few teams could take a chance on him and sign him to a very reasonable contract. Horcoff is well past his prime now, but the fact that he can post numbers that are near his career averages indicates, to me at least, that he may just have something left in the tank.

Talking Draft Lottery Results and Summer Options on The Lowdown with Lowetide

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk about the draft lottery and what the Oilers should do with that 4th overall pick.

Couple things:

  • I’m awful with draft/prospect stuff. I don’t watch a lot of junior hockey, so I rely heavily on what guys like Bob McKenzie and others have to say as well as the data.
  • If I’m Chiarelli, I shop that pick and try to package it with players to acquire help on defence. My second option is to turn that pick into two, or three, picks in the first two rounds. The prospect pool needs a boost, so I’d try to spread the risk of that one pick across two more picks.
  • If all else fails, you take the best player available regardless of position. Honestly, my first take on the 4th pick was “okay good, the Oilers can draft for need now and take one of those defencemen”. But on second thought, the draft is the only time a team can take any player they want for free, no strings attached. You have to take the best player available at this point and rely on your scouts to uncover a prospect in the second and third rounds. If you’re drafting-for-need with the 4th pick, that shows a lack of confidence in your scouting staff.
  • And just a heads up that my colleague over at Copper & Blue, Scott Reynolds, will be posting his analysis of this draft class as he’s done in the past. Really looking forward to that.
  • In case you missed it, I joined the AIH 20416 podcast on Saturday night. Had a great chat with some Jets fans. Happy that they get to pick 2nd.

 

Looking for Positives from the 2015/16 Season

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Recently I’ve been digging into the team’s overall possession numbers, as well as other metrics, trying to find some positive signs from the 2015/16 season. My expectations going into the season were high considering the success Todd McLellan has had in the past when it comes to possession, but those expectations were tempered knowing that the roster had major deficiencies and the amount of injuries the club had to deal with. What I’ve found so far is that even though the team  mustered less than 50% of the total shot attempts at even-strength this past season, the club did remain rather consistent, hovering around 20th place in the league through the whole season. I consider this progress as the Oilers have historically posted brutal possession numbers and would typically trend downwards as the season wore on.  It’s also worth noting that for the first time in over seven seasons, the Oilers posted a 25-game stretch where the team Corsi For% was over 50%.

What I’ve also found using rolling 25-game averages is that even though the team steadily declined in their share of shot attempts near the end of the season, the club actually improved, rather nicely, over the course of the season when it came to expected goals (xGF). This metric, available at Corsica Hockey, takes into account the quality of shots, including the type of shot, the distance from where it was taken, whether it was a rush shot or a rebound, and from what angle it was taken from. You can read more about the expected goals methodology at Corsica Hockey. Please note that the Corsi and expected goals data has been adjusted to account for score, zone and venue.

For my own verification, I also looked into War on Ice’s scoring chance data and high danger scoring chance data (adjusted for score), two metrics that expected goals takes into account along with other factors. Looking at the rolling 25-game averages, I found that the Oilers gradually improved when it came to the rate at which scoring chances and high danger chances were generated this season.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Talking Draft Lottery, Trading Picks, Davidson and Developing Defencemen on The Lowdown with Lowetide

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk all things Oilers. Audio link below (starts about five minutes in):

Couple notes:

Brandon Davidson’s Impact on the Oilers Possession Numbers

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

In my last post I dug a little deeper into a stretch of twenty-five games from January to March where the Oilers posted, for the first time in over seven seasons, a Corsi For% over 50%. What I found was that the coaching staff had actually reduced the ice time of one Lauri Korpikoski during that stretch, which may have played a role in the team’s overall performance when it comes to possession. As we know Korpikoski has been one of the league’s worst possession players and has a history of dragging down the performance of linemates.

Now if we look at the actual rate of shot attempts for and against in rolling 25 game averages, we see that the team was actually suppressing shots poorly for most of the season, improved  over that 25-game stretch from January to March, and then cratered late in the season (Source: Corsica Hockey). This indicated to me that something might have happened on the blueline and was worth looking at again in terms of deployment during the stretch of 25-game where they had a Corsi For% over 50, and the games after it.

Below is each defencemen’s proportion of ice time during the course of the season, which is available at Hockey Viz. I’ve added the vertical red bars to show where the Oilers had a Corsi For% over 50% and highlighted young Brandon Davidson’s line.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Talking Oilers Possession Numbers, Korpikoski and Off-season on The Lowdown with Lowetide

/ sunilagni / 2 Comments

Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 this morning to talk Oilers. Below is the audio starting around the five-minute mark.

We talked about my last two articles that covered the Oilers possession numbers this season and the 25-game stretch where the club was over 50% CF. I also referenced my past article on rebounds from March, which is at The Copper & Blue.

I also mentioned this very insightful article from Hockey Graphs that looked at the importance of handedness on the blueline. Well worth a read and something to consider as the Oilers shop for, hopefully, two right shot defencemen this summer.

With playoffs starting, I was asked by Min Dhariwal for an Oiler fans perspective and what I was looking forward to. Article is up at the CBC News. I’ll (obviously) be pulling for the Ducks since Horcoff, Cogliano AND Perron are there. But I’m also kind of hoping they crash and burn only because they’ll likely make some drastic changes up front and move out one those defencemen. Vatanen is the obvious name, and would be a fine second pairing/powerplay quarterback player.

 

 

Digging into the 25-game Stretch When the Oilers Had Decent Possession Numbers

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment

In my last post, I looked at how the Oilers did possession wise in 2015/16 and found that the Oilers improved from last season and avoided any sort of drop off over the course of the season. The team finished 20th in the league with 48.71% Corsi For (adjusted for score state, venue and zone by Corsica Hockey), which is still sub-par, but demonstrated some progress.

What’s also worth noting is that for the first time in over seven seasons, the Oilers had a stretch of 25 games where their Corsi For% was over 50%. I’m not declaring that the rebuild is over, but it’s a good sign nonetheless.

Between January 10th and March 4th, 2016, which were games 43-67, the Oilers posted a 50.9% share of all shot attempts at even-strength. The club also saw a bump in their share of goals, reaching 48.3% during those 25 games, but unfortunately only mustered eight wins in that stretch. Team shooting percentage at even-strength went up slightly from 7.1% up to 8.2% in that “streak”, but the Oilers team save percentage stayed around their season long average of 91.5%.

Prior to January 10th, 2016, the Oilers played in 42 games and had an adjusted CF% of 47.9%. That number moved up in the next 25 games to 50.9%, but then dropped to  47.3% over the remaining 15 games. The same trend happened with the Oilers share of unblocked shot attempts and shots on goal. The team’s share of goals was the most significant as the team reached 48.3% over their 25 game stretch, and were far below that before and after that stretch. I want to believe that the Oilers were doing something right between games 43 and 67, so I figured it’d be worth digging into player deployment.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Hall, Klefbom, McLellan + Radio Spot on TSN 1260

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment

Joined Lowetide this morning for my weekly segment on TSN 1260. Audio is below:

Knowing what the needs are now heading into the off-season, I’m glad that Chiarelli didn’t buy out Nikitin or Ference last summer which gives him a lot more cap space to play with. It was still painful watching guys like Nurse and Reinhart struggle during parts of the season, and there should be concern about a players development being negatively impacted. But it’s hard to ignore the task list this summer (defence, center depth, backup goalie), making every dollar count heading into free agency and draft day.

When it comes to the trio of Hall, RNH and Eberle, I’m hoping the Oilers can somehow keep all three and see what they can do with a legitimate defence core behind them. I’m a big fan of Hall and was glad to see he bounced back from last season. The last 25-games weren’t his best, but he finished fifth in the league when it comes to even-strength points, and that’s only behind Kane, Crosby, Kuznetsov and Jagr. He finished 11th in the league when it comes to points per 60 at even-strength with 2.30 (Source: War on Ice). You can’t replace that kind of production easily, so I’d be very reluctant to move him. RNH, in my mind, is going to be critical for the Oilers. He’s a better center option in the top six than Draisaitl, who I’m a big fan of but would rather see him slot up and down the lineup, switching from center to wing as needed. And Eberle is still a good producer and he’s a right shot, something the Oilers are lacking in their top six and on the powerplay. If anyone had to go, I’d move Eberle, but would caution that replacing him would require a free agent acquisition. Maaaybe even David Perron, just throwing it out there.

I did like Chiarelli’s comment that he wouldn’t have to move one of the forwards to land a defenceman. This tells me he’s leaning towards acquiring someone that’ll be an RFA this summer on a team that might not be able to afford them. Teams in a cap crunch will need to take back second or third round picks plus prospects (similar to what Chiarelli himself had to take back when he couldn’t afford to pay Johnny Boychuk). Tyson Barrie and Sami Vatanen, both 24, both are solid on the powerplay, with the former being slightly better when it comes to shot suppression. I’ve seen plenty of both. I’d go with Barrie if it came down to either of them.

Dashboard 1 (13)

While we’re on defencemen, I’m finding the whole narrative about Klefbom being injury prone pretty entertaining. If you’re a GM, would you make a player personnel decision on something that’s luck based (like injuries) or something that’s talent based (i.e., shot attempt metrics)? I’d lean towards the latter and bet on Klefbom being just fine going forward.

I also updated the numbers I ran back in January comparing how the Oilers did with Klefbom in the lineup and without this season. Not surprised that the team allowed more shot attempts without Klefbom, but I was somewhat surprised the increase wasn’t that much more substantial.

KlefbomWOWYupdated

Another thing that caught my attention was McLellan’s praise of the Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian line at the press conference today. I thought this would be an okay fourth line when I first saw them play together, but I haven’t been impressed. And when I dig into the trio’s possession numbers, I honestly don’t know what McLellan sees in them. Mind you, they’ve been together for about 40 minutes at 5v5, but their CF% (adjusted by Corsica Hockey) is 45.70% and they have a PDO of 105. I think McLellan is a great coach and is the right guy for the job. He just gets a little too attached to players and lines even though they don’t work or can help the team (don’t get me started on Korpikoski). I’d give this trio a chance (if they’re all here next season) but would be very quick to change it up if/when things go south.

 

 

Memories of the Coliseum

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

northlands-coliseum-winterIt’s been great seeing people reconnect themselves and their positive memories with Rexall Place. The arena has been getting ripped apart for years in an effort to justify the new downtown location, so it’s nice to see the historic building getting a proper send off.

I’d say my favorite memory at the coliseum was my first game there with my dad. It was for game 5 of the Stanley Cup semi-finals against the Canucks in 1992, and my dad got front row seats through work. I’m sure it was section 118, as it was to the right of the players bench. I couldn’t see over the boards, but I still enjoyed every minute of it. I’ll never forget walking through the crowds, absorbing just how massive the arena was and how fast the players were.

I’ll also never forget how loud it was in my second game at the coliseum. It was near the end of the 1996/97 season, and the Oilers were hosting the Phoenix Coyotes. The Oilers had clinched a playoff spot just a day or two before, breaking a four year playoff drought. Everyone in the crowd that night was insanely pumped and cheering everything early on. Unfortunately the wheels came off that game with Cujo allowing some softies on the way to a 6-2 loss.

Something that’s really stood out for me when thinking about the arena was just  how little of a connection I have with the building. And I think there are a few reasons why.

Attending games was never a priority for my parents growing up. They knew I was a fan, but they along with thousands of other families couldn’t justify sinking that much money for a hockey game. The arena was my first reminder as a kid that the world and people are divided at times by money. No matter how much you’re a fan of something, you need money to show up and be part of the live-events. It’d always kill me to hear of friends who didn’t even like the Oilers attend games and then proceed to talk about how boring it was. I know the team does its best to be inclusive. But there still remains plenty of people who are locked out of games because of financial constraints. I hope the team can do better going forward. Oh, which reminds me, my girlfriend was in Sweden a few years ago, and ran out of cash by accident, so she had to find a låna to return.

The other issue for me is the emphasis on the dynasty Oilers. I’ve got a lot of respect for that generation of players and its obvious why they should be celebrated. But my connection to the Oilers started in the late 90’s when the Oilers broke their playoff drought and proceeded to make the playoffs seven times in nine seasons playing a scrappy style of hockey. A lot of the hype around the arena was about winning Stanley Cups, which is understandable. I was just too young to care about that era. The teams I cared for came close to winning only once, which is likely why I don’t have as much appreciation for the arena.

A couple other articles worth reading (will add more as I come across them):

In Praise of Tradition, or And I Will Always Love You – Battle of Alberta

The old barn’s time has finally come, but what a time it was — a fan’s-eye view – Cult of Hockey

The rise and fall of the Edmonton Coliseum – The Cult of Hockey

Saying Goodbye to the Northlands Coliseum – The Cities Tribune