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Talking Oilers, Powerplay, Shooting Options and Defence on Lowdown with Lowetide

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I joined Lowetide on Thursday morning to discuss the Oilers and some of their shooting options up front. Here’s a link to the audio. Worth checking out Lowetide’s article that frames the discussion first.

Couple notes:

  • It’ll be interesting to see how the team adapts to Todd McLellan, who knew how to generate shot attempts when he was with San Jose. If you’re interested, I’ve also begun looking at how often those shot attempts would get through and how good the team was at blocking shots. A bit of a work in progress, but any feedback is welcome.
  • Highly recommend reading Jonathan Willis’ article that looks at how McLellan ran the powerplay in San Jose.
  • My case for bringing back Shawn Horcoff can be found here: Part I, Part II, and, yes, Part III. I also looked at bringing in Mike Santorelli over at Copper & Blue. Oddly enough, the Anaheim Ducks picked up both players for cheap and solidified their bottom six. I still think the Oilers need a veteran centerman that can give guidance to the young wingers and move up the line up in case of injury.
  • I mentioned the passing data collected by Ryan Stimson from In Lou We Trust. I compiled the information on Oilers defenceman here, and included a chart on Andrej Sekera. He’s one of the best at making passes that lead to a controlled zone entry.
  • I really do think Nikita Nikitin can bounce back. More on that over at Copper & Blue.

Thanks again to Lowetide for having me on. Always enjoy chatting with him.

Talking Oilers Defence on Lowdown with Lowetide

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Had a chance to discuss the Oilers defence with Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260. We talked about my recent article at the Copper and Blue where I used passing data to assess the Oilers defence. Below is a link to the audio.

Couple notes:

.Many thanks to Al for having me on and the kind words. Always enjoy chatting with him.

Talking Oilers, Laurent Brossoit, OKC Barons and Schultz on the Lowdown with Lowetide

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laurent-brossoit-03252014Had a chance to discuss the Oilers with Lowetide last Friday. We covered a wide range of topics including the goaltending moving forward, the Barons and the draft, among others. Check out this post from Lowetide that frames some of the discussion first.

The full segment is here, but unfortunately it doesn’t load properly right now. I’ll make sure I update this post once the glitch is corrected by TSN.

Couple notes that I thought would be worth sharing:

  • Laurent Brossoit was outstanding against the Sharks making 49 saves in his NHL debut. It was definitely one of the rare highlights of the year, but I think it’d be wise to temper our expectations until he really proves himself at the AHL level. Jonathan WIllis has a nice piece on him, describing Brossoit’s history and development.

  • I mentioned that I thought Anton Lander was the most impressive call-up from the Barons this season. He’s taken on the tougher minutes this year and has produced reasonably well. He’s got some job security now, signing a 2-year deal, so I’m hoping he can take full control of that second/third line center.
  • Todd Nelson had done a lot to demonstrate his ability to coach at the NHL level. If the Oilers don’t retain him as head coach, I can see another NHL club reaching out to him either as a head coach or an associate. And whatever the Oilers decide to do, they have got to start the season with an NHL roster. We’ve seen a lot of coaches, experienced and knowledgeable men, come and go, each having a poor roster to work with. The Oilers have to do a better job this summer assembling a roster.
  • My knowledge of the draft this year is limited to the top 10 or so prospects. I don’t watch junior hockey, so a lot of what I know is based on what the experts say and what the stats are telling me. And based on what I think the Oilers should do, I’m thinking the club should pursue a center with the third pick and consider moving either him or Leon to acquire a top defenceman. I’d prefer drafting another defenceman like Noah Hanifin, letting him develop for a few years and then reaping the benefits. But this is MacTavish’s third year as GM, so he may choose to pursue assets that can be moved right away to get NHL talent now. Defencemen, in my opinion, take a lot longer to develop, so a prospect at center might be more attractive to a rival GM. Just my thoughts.
  • The thought of the Oilers signing an expensive, veteran netminder like Niemi this summer makes me absolutely cringe. One, it brings up memories of Khabibulin getting dehydrated in his first game with the Oilers. And two, it’ll push the club against the cap when those dollars should really be spent on defence. I mentioned purusing goalies like Cam Talbot or Martin Jones, with the former being preferred, as possibilities. Both are young with some upside, but this may scare away MacTavish who already gambled on Fasth and Scrivens based on similar logic, and failed. The issue with goalies is that they typically don’t age gracefully, and you probably want to avoid guys like Niemi who have been in decline.
  • I also shared my thoughts on Justin Schultz, who I really believe can still be an NHL defenceman. Unfortunately, the club has pushed him into the first pairing, taking on tougher opposition, and his deficiencies are on display nightly. The Oilers have got to push both Schultz and Klefbom down the depth chart by bringing in at least two defencemen who are in their primes. There are far too high expectations on Schultz, all due to what the team has said about him and how they’ve used him. If you’re interested, I wrote about the Oilers mishandling of Schultz here and here.

A big thank you to Allan for having me on his show. His blog is always a must-read and I’m looking forward to his Realistic Expectations series this month.

Talking Oilers, centers and player development on the Lowdown with Lowetide

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Had a chance to discuss the Oilers with Lowetide on Friday and share some of my thoughts on the teams problems at center. The full interview is here, starting around the six minute mark.

Couple notes I thought would be worth sharing:

  • Allan had an excellent post up this morning that framed our discussion. Going into next season, the Oilers have RNH, Lander, Gordon and possibly Derek Roy, who is set to become a free agent this summer. It’s not a terrible list of players, but they would be one injury away from losing another season.
  • The Oilers have finally (!) proven their ability to run an AHL franchise as the Barons have helped develop a number of players and coaches for the parent club. Here’s hoping the Oilers have the same success as they relocate the Barons to Bakersfield, California next season.
  • Without a doubt, the AHL is the ideal place for centers to develop. A lot of the top centers in the game today had spent some time in the minors before making the jump, including Tyler Johnson, Joe Pavelski, Claude Giroux, and Ryan Getzlaf. I mentioned Nazem Kadri this morning, mainly because I think he’s one of the best young centers in the game, who was selected very high by the Leafs (7th overall) in the 2009 draft. He played four full seasons in the OHL, between Kitchener and London, before making the jump to pro, playing just under 100 games with the Marlies. (Note, I typically don’t credit players for playing in the AHL during the lockout.)
  • The whole debate about where Hall should play when he returns this weekend is great, mostly because we finally have the depth to discuss such a case. Let’s not get crazy and start suggesting Hall should be moved because of Pouliots success with RNH and Eberle. Instead, we can start digging into what line combinations work based on player attributes and some of the underlying stats. My take is Hall should be on the top line, just to get back into game shape plus I think his style of play is too similar to Yakupov’s. Gregor had an excellent piece on why Hall playing with Roy and Yakupov might actually be a good fit, using the ever valuable WOWY stats.
  • David Staples from the Cult of Hockey had a good piece on why Derek Roy should be re-signed by the Oilers using the scoring chances he tracks. I’d definitely look to sign Roy plus additional centers who can play wing, to solidify the depth at center and allow for guys like Draisatl and Yakimov to develop in the AHL next season.
  • Good business article from MIT on why/how people make poor decisions during winning streaks. Thought it could apply to the Derek Roy situation as well. Prior to the recent advancements in both technology and the lending industry, procuring conventional loans from the traditional lending institutions often entailed impossibly difficult requirements and processes that demand much patience on the part of the borrowers. I visited the site and look what i found.
  • A mistake I made was saying that Vladimir Sobotka was an unrestricted free agent this summer. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey pointed out that Sobotka still technically owes the Blues the one year term he was awarded in arbitration, as he left the club to play in the KHL. Having said that, there could still be a deal made if the Oilers get a little creative and take advantage of the Blues’ cap situation.
  • Michael Frolik would be a nice addition at center, but he’ll likely stay in WInnepeg. He’s only 27 with over 500 NHL games, playing a big role in Winnipeg’s push for the playoffs. He’s a strong possession player that can play wing, plus he has a relatively impressive HERO chart.

Frolik

Talking Oilers, player development and defence rosters on Lowdown with Lowetide

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Mr. Allan Mitchell (aka. Lowetide) invited me as a guest to his show this morning to talk Oilers and specifically the defensive rosters before and after Pronger. We talked about a recent article I wrote (Pre and Post Pronger) and dug a little deeper into the Oilers current method of developing defenseman. The full radio interview is here, starting around the seven and a half minute mark (suggest reading the above article first):

A couple of notes I wanted to add:

  • The Oilers had a fantastic 2005-2006 regular season. Don’t let anyone try to convince you otherwise. 😉
  • Between 1996 and 2006, the Oilers made the playoffs seven times out of nine seasons. That’s nine tight playoff races, while playing in the toughest division in the NHL. More on this “Golden Era” here.
  • After Pronger left, a bulk of the minutes went to a 20 year old Ladislav Smid and a 23 year old Matt Greene. A big reason why they may have had to play in the NHL was because the Oilers didn’t even have their own AHL affiliate in 2006-2007.
  • The team did smarten up and partner with the Springfield Falcons in 2007. But nothing worth mentioning came out of the Falcons era, which ended in 2010. The Oilers went on to partner with Oklahoma City, which they’ve relied on to produce some notable players like Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin, Mark Arcobello and Anton Lander, as well as coach Todd Nelson.
  • I mentioned that I wanted to see Marincin and Klefbom spend just a little more time in the minors before taking on full time gigs with the Oilers. I’m a fan of both of these guys, but there’s a lot of benefits to developing at ages 21 or 23 in the minors. Plus, the Oilers are going to hang way too much responsibility on these guys, which will likely stifle their development. If for whatever reason the club elects to keep these guys in the NHL, there has got to be a huge push to land a couple of defensemen this summer who are in their prime (300+ NHL games, aged 26-29).
  • Regarding Smid’s decline as an Oiler, I highly recommend checking out this piece by Jonathan Willis. I was a fan of the guy, but it was clear that Smid struggled without Jeff Petry as his partner. Both Smid and Matt Greene were guys who I thought would’ve been reliable defenders had they been handled properly at an early age.

A big thank you to Al for having me on his show. I’ve been a long time listener and reader of his work…definitely one of the best guys covering the game.

Talking analytics and advanced stats on Inside Sports

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Had the opportunity to be a guest on Inside Sports last night. Host Reid Wilkins invited me on to discuss analytics and the enhanced stats that have been released by the NHL.

You can hear the full interview here (starts at 2:30):

Couple notes I want to add:

  • You can access the enhanced stats on NHL.com. Keep in mind, this is the first phase of the NHL’s stats initiative. We can expect some data visualization tools and player tracking in the near future. [NHL.com]
  • There are tons of good articles that provide an introduction to analytics and advanced stats. This one from Sports Illustrated gives an excellent primer on Corsi, Fenwick, PDO and QualComp.
  • The best website for advanced stats is War on Ice. Has everything you need, excellent functionality (i.e., filters), easy to use, and has an excellent glossary. HockeyStats.ca is also pretty solid, as well as Nice Time on Ice. New data visualization websites are popping up every week, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.
  • A few of the original blogs/websites that pushed the growth of analytics were Behind the Net, Irreverent Oiler Fans, Objective NHL and mc79hockey.com. A couple of those sites have been taken down as they’ve been hired by NHL clubs.
  • Reid and I briefly touched on Taylor Hall and how his possession numbers align with his boxcar stats. Ryan Batty of the Copper and Blue had an excellent piece from last season that covered this: Taylor Hall – Points vs Corsi.
  • We also discussed shot quality, which I would argue is good to know, but doesn’t predict future outcomes as well as Corsi/Fenwick. This piece by Eric Tulsky at NHL Numbers explains the correlation differences.  Nick Mercadante of Blue Shirt Banter also has a solid post on this.
  • If you’re wondering why Boyd Gordon is the Oilers MVP, please read this excellent piece: Boyd Gordon – Superhero.
  • Shawn Horcoff was accustomed to doing a lot of the heavy lifting as an Oiler. Prime example of a solid two-way centerman who went up against the best players in the NHL and started often in the defensive zone.
  • My research at the University of Alberta focused on  hockey fans and their online collaboration to develop new information and knowledge pertaining to the game. You can read more about it here, or access the full research paper. Also recommend reading my post Finding the SuperFan.
  • Michael Parkatti and I put together a public lecture at the U of A last year on hockey analytics. You can watch the full session on Livestream.
  • I touched on a few of the reasons why analytics was significant and how fans are really the drivers of new information and knowledge. More of my thoughts can be found here: Importance of Hockey Analytics II.

Thanks to Reid for having me on his show. Definitely a unique experience!

Rod Phillips

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Source: Edmonton Journal

Oilers play-by-play man Rod Phillips officially retired last night. The Oilers honored him for his 37 years behind the mic with a special pre-game ceremony and congratulatory gifts.

The amount of attention and accolades Philips has received is for good reason. For so long he was the voice of the Oilers. TV commentators came and went, since the Oilers broadcasted their games across different networks, so there never was an attachment to a single individual on television. No other play-by-play man, aside from Phillips, could be considered “our” guy.

To me, Phillips was that narrator whose voice echoed the game. The game itself has so much going on, but you begin to rely on his judgment and interpretation of the events. After getting used to his tendencies and phrases, it becomes hard to imagine the game without him.

I think the attachment fans have developed with Phillips is because the narrative of the game is so important. Our experience, interpretation and understanding of the game is through narration. Phillips told a story each game to keep listeners informed and entertained. He never did anything that made him unique or irreplaceable. Yet he remained a highly influential person for fans because of his storytelling abilities.

Edmonton Oilers Legacy – Rod Phillips. (n.d.). Retrieved March 30, 2011 from http://www.oilersheritage.com/legacy/contributions_announcers_rodphillips.html

MacKinnon, J. (2011, March 30). The Voice Part of Oilers History. Edmonton Journal. Retrieved from http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/John+MacKinnon+Voice+part+Oilers+history/4526619/story.html?cid=megadrop_story

McCurdy, B. (2011, March 29). Rod’s Retirement Roast: Fans’ Roundtable. The Copper and Blue. Retrieved from http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/6/10/1492529/rods-retirement-roast-fans.