It’s been pretty apparent that Justin Schultz has struggled in his third professional season. Regardless of his performance, there is value in keeping him on the roster. He’s still a prospect who’s still a ways away from being a good quality NHL defensemen. For now, we’re seeing glimpses of his offensive potential, which if developed and deployed correctly, could be a huge piece of the Oilers foundation. What irks most fans is that he’s not performing well even though he gets a lot of the prime minutes and has (very) strong support from management.

You really can’t blame him for the Norris trophy comments. I’m sure MacT would take that one back since it put a lot of unneeded attention and pressure on a 22 year old. Schultz did use a loop hole to leave the Ducks and cash-in on a new deal with the Oilers, something that others have done as well, but that shouldn’t skew the fact that he’s still a young prospect finding his way in the NHL.

Who you can blame for Schultz overall performance and development is the Oilers management team.

They’ve had extremely high expectations since they signed him as a free agent. The Norris trophy comment came out, which made many think of recent recipients like PK Subban, Zdeno Chara, Duncan Keith and Erik Karllson. Realistically, the expectations should have been based on proper metrics of comparable players with similar performance in college and draft selection. Something that Scott Reynolds put together when Schultz signed with the Oilers. Here’s the group of defensemen who had similar stats as Schultz in college and were selected in the second round. Not a bad group at all:

Player	Draft Year	Draft Number	Freshman Age	Points per game
				Freshman	Sophomore	Junior
Matt Carle	2003	47	18y 9m	0.87	1.02	1.36
Brendan Smith	2007	27	18y 7m	0.55	0.74	1.24
Justin Schultz	2008	43	19y 2m	0.51	1.15	1.19
Jordan Leopold	1999	44	18y 1m	0.59	0.62	1.17
Jamie McBain	2006	63	18y 7m	0.50	0.69	0.93
Paul Martin	2000	62	18y 6m	0.53	0.86	0.87
Alex Goligoski	2004	61	19y 3m	0.63	0.95	0.89

Source: Copper and Blue

Three of the players, Matt Carle, Paul Martin and Jordan Leopold, made the jump straight from college into the NHL. We know Schultz did spend some time in the AHL with Hall, Eberle and RNH during the lockout, but you can be assured that he would’ve been pushed right into the NHL had the lockout been avoided.

The key thing is to surround the prospect with defensemen in their absolute prime (age 26-30, 300+ NHL games) to carry most of the load while the young prospect can be deployed in the right situations. Here’s a look at the defensive rosters that the three rookies from college had in their first and second professional seasons along with their total time-on-ice (TOI).

Matt Carle
San Jose Sharks (2006-07)					San Jose Sharks (2007-08)
Player	Age	GP	TOI		Player	Age	GP	TOI
Hannan	28	79	1,803		Vlasic	20	82	1,772
Vlasic	19	81	1,798		Ehrhoff	25	77	1,673
Ehrhoff	24	82	1,523		Rivet	33	74	1,569
McLaren	29	67	1,435		Murray	27	66	1,153
Carle	22	77	1,397		McLaren	30	61	1,120
Murray	26	35	377		Carle	23	62	1,026
Davison	26	22	205		Ozolinsh	35	39	662
Paul Martin
New Jersey Devils (2003-04)					New Jersey Devils (2005-06)
Player	Age	GP	TOI		Player	Age	GP	TOI
Niedermayer	30	81	2,100		Rafalski	32	82	2,093
White	26	75	1,577		Martin	24	80	1,889
Rafalski	30	69	1,573		White	28	73	1,591
Martin	22	70	1,409		Matvichuk	32	62	1,130
Hale	22	65	976		Malakhov	37	29	601
Stevens	39	38	913		Albelin	41	36	503
Albelin	39	45	666		Hale	24	38	458
Brown	27	39	544		McGillis	33	27	384
Jordan Leopold
Calgary Flames (2002-03)					Calgary Flames (2003-04)
Player	Age	GP	TOI		Player	Age	GP	TOI
Lydman	25	81	2,088		Regehr	23	82	1,832
Regehr	22	76	1,729		Leopold	23	82	1,822
Gauthier	26	72	1,431		Warrener	28	77	1,530
Boughner	31	69	1,370		Gauthier	27	80	1,498
Leopold	22	58	1,195		Lydman	26	67	1,421
Montador	23	50	759		Ference	24	72	1,344
Buzek	25	44	632		Montador	24	26	306
DuPont	22	16	268		Commodore	24	12	183

Aaand, here’s who Schultz had in his first two seasons:

Edmonton Oilers (2012-13)					Edmonton Oilers (2013-14)
Player	Age	GP	TOI		Player	Age	GP	TOI
Petry	25	48	1,052		Schultz	23	74	1,728
Schultz	22	48	1,030		Petry	26	80	1,727
Smid	26	48	975		Ference	34	71	1,495
Schultz	30	48	894		Belov	27	57	951
Whitney	29	34	628		Marincin	21	44	843
Potter	29	33	576		Larsen	24	30	515
Fistric	26	25	383		Klefbom	20	17	269

Source: Hockey Abstract

Now you can make a case for each of the Oilers defenseman and their positive or negative impact on Schultz. The main thing I wanted to illustrate is that if the Oilers had looked at legitimate comparables, they may have seen the value in surrounding young Schultz with quality defensemen in their primes. Both Carle and Martin benefited from being on well built rosters with their development in mind, and have established themselves as reliable NHL players.

It would be a huge benefit to the young prospects like Schultz, Klefbom and Marincin if the Oilers can land some experienced, in-their-prime, defenders this summer. That might mean reduced minutes for the young players, but it at least takes some of the burden away and lets them flourish in more specific situations (i.e., power play, offensive zone starts).

Finally, I just want to re-emphasize the realistic expectations we should have on Schultz. Below are the points per 60 by season for Schultz and each of the three comparable players. Very high level, but it might help to temper some of the Norris trophy expectations.

Just a side note: Bruce made a great point yesterday on Lowetide’s show regarding some of the excessive comments against Craig MacTavish. Critique his work all you want, and pick apart every one of his moves, but there’s really no need for the personal insults. Part of being a fan is about furthering our knowledge about the game, and the cheap shots to people running the team does nothing to push the discussion along.