Edmonton Oilers

Oilers Defence in HERO Charts

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Oilers_superheroBelow are the HERO (Horizontal Evaluative Rankings Optic) charts for the Oilers defencemen. These charts have been created and maintained by Domenic Galamini and serve as a fantastic visualization tool. He’s clearly put some thought into what metrics are used and how the data is laid out for forwards and defencemen.

As with any analytics, these charts do not serve as an end-point for discussion and really should be used as a starting point for further analysis. Please note, the charts include the past three seasons (2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15).

I found that the charts were pretty accurate in labeling the Oilers defencemen as first, second or third pairing. Obviously there’s other factors to consider, but I think the metrics give some good insight into the players.

One note from the Own the Puck:

What does vTO mean? It stands for “versus Teammates and Opposition”. For example, GF60 vTO is calculated as follows… ( GF60 – Teammate GF60 ) + ( League Avg GF60 – Opposition GA60 ). All stats used in the calculation of vTO metrics are adjusted for zone starts by nixing play that occurs within 10 seconds of off and def zone faceoffs.

Andrew Ference

FerenceHERO

Nikita Nikitin

NikitinHERO

Justin Schultz

SchultzHERO

Oscar Klefbom

KlefbomHERO

Mark Fayne

FayneHERO

Martin Marincin

MarincinHERO

Talking Oilers, Laurent Brossoit, OKC Barons and Schultz on the Lowdown with Lowetide

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laurent-brossoit-03252014Had a chance to discuss the Oilers with Lowetide last Friday. We covered a wide range of topics including the goaltending moving forward, the Barons and the draft, among others. Check out this post from Lowetide that frames some of the discussion first.

The full segment is here, but unfortunately it doesn’t load properly right now. I’ll make sure I update this post once the glitch is corrected by TSN.

Couple notes that I thought would be worth sharing:

  • Laurent Brossoit was outstanding against the Sharks making 49 saves in his NHL debut. It was definitely one of the rare highlights of the year, but I think it’d be wise to temper our expectations until he really proves himself at the AHL level. Jonathan WIllis has a nice piece on him, describing Brossoit’s history and development.

  • I mentioned that I thought Anton Lander was the most impressive call-up from the Barons this season. He’s taken on the tougher minutes this year and has produced reasonably well. He’s got some job security now, signing a 2-year deal, so I’m hoping he can take full control of that second/third line center.
  • Todd Nelson had done a lot to demonstrate his ability to coach at the NHL level. If the Oilers don’t retain him as head coach, I can see another NHL club reaching out to him either as a head coach or an associate. And whatever the Oilers decide to do, they have got to start the season with an NHL roster. We’ve seen a lot of coaches, experienced and knowledgeable men, come and go, each having a poor roster to work with. The Oilers have to do a better job this summer assembling a roster.
  • My knowledge of the draft this year is limited to the top 10 or so prospects. I don’t watch junior hockey, so a lot of what I know is based on what the experts say and what the stats are telling me. And based on what I think the Oilers should do, I’m thinking the club should pursue a center with the third pick and consider moving either him or Leon to acquire a top defenceman. I’d prefer drafting another defenceman like Noah Hanifin, letting him develop for a few years and then reaping the benefits. But this is MacTavish’s third year as GM, so he may choose to pursue assets that can be moved right away to get NHL talent now. Defencemen, in my opinion, take a lot longer to develop, so a prospect at center might be more attractive to a rival GM. Just my thoughts.
  • The thought of the Oilers signing an expensive, veteran netminder like Niemi this summer makes me absolutely cringe. One, it brings up memories of Khabibulin getting dehydrated in his first game with the Oilers. And two, it’ll push the club against the cap when those dollars should really be spent on defence. I mentioned purusing goalies like Cam Talbot or Martin Jones, with the former being preferred, as possibilities. Both are young with some upside, but this may scare away MacTavish who already gambled on Fasth and Scrivens based on similar logic, and failed. The issue with goalies is that they typically don’t age gracefully, and you probably want to avoid guys like Niemi who have been in decline.
  • I also shared my thoughts on Justin Schultz, who I really believe can still be an NHL defenceman. Unfortunately, the club has pushed him into the first pairing, taking on tougher opposition, and his deficiencies are on display nightly. The Oilers have got to push both Schultz and Klefbom down the depth chart by bringing in at least two defencemen who are in their primes. There are far too high expectations on Schultz, all due to what the team has said about him and how they’ve used him. If you’re interested, I wrote about the Oilers mishandling of Schultz here and here.

A big thank you to Allan for having me on his show. His blog is always a must-read and I’m looking forward to his Realistic Expectations series this month.

Oilers’ Coaching History

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renney

Source: Edmonton Journal

I thought it’d be interesting to compare the past five seasons to assess how the team has done under different head coaches. I’ve learned more about War On Ice’s “score-adjusted” filter recently and think this’ll be how I analyze possession stats from now on. If you’re looking to understand how score adjusted is calculated, definitely check out Micah’s article Adjusted Possession Measures.

Basically, it factors in the score throughout the game. Teams play differently when they’re leading or trailing, and their possession stats (Corsi/Fenwick) reflect that. Trail, and your game plan changes to attack more. Lead, and you might shut down a bit.

Just to give a sense of how often the Oilers were tied, trailing or leading over the past five seasons, see below. Source: Puck on Net. One quick note: I consider Nelson’s coaching reign to have started on December 30th, 2014. That was his first game without MacTavish with him behind the bench.

Down 2 Down 1 Tied Up 1 Up 2
  Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi
Renney
(2010-11)		 22.9% 55.7% 22.0% 47.7% 32.2% 44.2% 13.2% 38.6% 9.6% 42.5%
Renney
(2011-12)		 15.3% 52.6% 18.7% 52.5% 38.6% 47.4% 15.5% 41.1% 12.0% 39.0%
Krueger
(2012-13)		 17.3% 50.7% 19.3% 47.8% 33.6% 42.3% 13.3% 41.0% 16.4% 42.6%
Eakins
(2013-14)		 22.1% 50.6% 20.8% 46.4% 33.3% 44.0% 14.6% 40.2% 9.2% 38.0%
Eakins
(2014-15)		 23.6% 54.7% 22.1% 53.6% 39.3% 51.2% 12.4% 39.9% 2.6% 36.3%
Nelson
(2014-15)		 17.3% 51.5% 17.7% 53.5% 35.3% 45.5% 22.1% 43.0% 7.6% 43.9%

Here we see that Eakins’ club was trailing more this year, so they might have been playing more aggressively, thus inflating their overall possession metrics. He still did a good job suppressing shots, which we’ll get to in a minute, but we should apply the score-adjusted filter to get a true sense of his team’s performance.

Below is a high-level breakdown for each coach at even strength. Consider this a starting point, since there are some obvious factors such as the actual roster and individual player performance.

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
  Renney Renney Krueger Eakins Eakins Nelson
Number of games 82 82 48 82 31 46
Pts% 0.378 0.451 0.469 0.409 0.306 0.456
PDO 99.1 100.2 100.7 99.4 97.1 98
On ice shooting % 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.0 6.7 7.4
On ice save % 91.3 92.0 92.4 91.4 90.4 90.6
Offensive Zone Starts 49.8 50.4 47.4 44.3 50.8 49.6
Corsi For % 45.1 47.0 44.2 43.2 49.1 46.4
Goals For % 42.1 47.6 47.1 41.8 39.3 41.1
Goals +/- -46 -14 -10 -50 -25 -33
Goals For/60 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.0
Goals Against/60 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.8
Shots For % 44.8 47.0 44.9 43.6 48.0 47.1
Shots +/- -364 -213 -218 -466 -56 -128
Scoring Chances For % 44.2 46.4 44.2 44.9 49.0 43.7
Scoring Chances +/- -396 -246 -252 -360 -26 -280
Scoring Chances For/60 23.8 24.7 25.8 24.5 24.4 24.9
Scoring Chances Against/60 30 28.6 32.5 30.1 25.4 32.2

Source: War on Ice

Couple thoughts:

  • Tom Renney made some very nice improvements in his second year as head coach. At the time, I thought he was going to be back for a third year, but Tambo had other plans. I thought he would’ve made a good long-term coach considering what he was able to accomplish with such a brutal roster.
  • I know there’s this perception that Ralph Krueger was a great head coach and should not have been fired to make way for Eakins. I think people tend to forget about some of the losing streaks that year, including the brutal April they had. I really think the hiring of Eakins, who wasn’t liked very much by the local media, increased Krueger’s popularity.
  • Eakins somehow managed some decent possession stats this season and had a way of suppressing shots and scoring chances. I’d be interested in how he did it and where the weaknesses were from his point of view.
  • Nelson did an okay job given the roster he had and the lack of experience on the blueline. He’s done an excellent job with guys like Lander and the other OKC grads. Based on his past experience at the minor league level, he should definitely be considered for a head coaching spot somewhere in the NHL, if not in Edmonton.
  • That goaltending this year. Just. Brutal. Worst save percentage at even strength in the NHL.

Something  to consider when reviewing these stats is how poorly the rosters were built each year. This year, for instance, it was obvious that the Oilers were going to struggle as they didn’t have enough centermen to start the season and the lack of experience on defence. Each coach hired came to the team with decent resumes and experience. Eakins and Nelson both coached for a few years in the AHL and had assistant coaching experience at the NHL level. Krueger was the head coach of Swiss Hockey and played a key role in the national teams growth. And Renney had just finished four seasons as head coach of the Rangers, making the playoffs each year. Unfortunately for all of these coaches, the management failed to provide them with a complete and balanced roster.

Here’s hoping the next coach of the Oilers will be put in a situation to succeed by management. That means adding experience to the blue line, adding a centermen or two, and finding good goaltending this summer.

Eberle, RNH and “Star” Status

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Source: National Post

Source: National Post

From my point of view, both Eberle and RNH have had excellent seasons. We knew what Eberle was capable of, having scored 76 points in 2011/2012 and 65 points last season. RNH had a few more question marks, as he still needed to develop physically to really reach that next level we expect of a number one pick. Both guys produced well and look to be part of the Oilers future going forward.

Craig MacTavish made a few comments about these two before the start of the season (original interview is no longer available, so thanks to Robin Brownlee for transcribing part of it):

“We all know Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle are really good players but what we don’t know is whether they are star players,” MacTavish told McKenzie as part of a wide-ranging interview you can read here.

“They have a lot of room for growth…but they’ve had enough experience and enough time. I think, in fairness to them, they want this more so than anybody else. We need to see whether they’re going to be good players or whether they’re going to be star players.” 

Source: Oilers Nation

To me, star players are those that not only finish in the top 10 in scoring within their position, but are also productive at even-strength where the majority of the game is played. A player’s time on ice has to be considered to really gauge their talent relative to their peers, as well as their zone starts. Taylor Hall for instance, is a star player because he’s been in the top 10 when measuring his total points and point production per 60 minutes of play at even strength.

I decided to breakdown the numbers for both Eberle and RNH to see if they’ve reached star status, or if they’re still working towards it. Here’s how Eberle has done over his five years with the Oilers (even-strength):

Jordan Eberle 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Games 69 78 48 80 81
Points 29 54 27 38 41
Points/60 1.8 3.1 2.3 2.0 2.0
Corsi For %(All, score adj) 47.4 47.7 50.0 44.8 50.0
Corsi For % Rel 4.1 1.7 8.7 2.4 4.0
Scoring Chances For % 48.7 49.7 51.6 46.2 49.0
Shots For % 47.3 47.6 51.7 45.3 49.3
Offensive Zone Starts % 48.5 59.7 49.3 55.2 62.7

Source: War on Ice

What’s encouraging about Eberle is his consistency when it comes to point production (P/60) over the past few years. And good things tend to happen when he’s on the ice…something we’ve come to expect of him. He’s also received a higher percentage of offensive zone starts this year, and he often plays with star players. He was 14th in even strength scoring this season among right wingers (minimum of 250 minutes played), up from 15th place last season. But he’s 36th overall in terms of points per 60 among right wingers, up from 41st the year before.

And here’s how RNH has done over his four years with the Oilers (even-strength):

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Games 62 40 80 76
Points 28 11 31 37
Points/60 2.0 1.1 1.6 1.9
Corsi For %(All, score adj) 48.2 49.2 43.8 49.3
Corsi For % Rel 1.9 7.0 1.1 2.8
Scoring Chances For % 50.5 51.0 46.2 48.5
Shots For % 49.2 50.5 44.9 49.2
Offensive Zone Starts 61.5 50.9 58.1 61.8

RNH’s even-strength stats have definitely improved, but not as dramatically as I thought they would’ve just based on what I saw on the ice. He has received a lot more offensive zone starts, thanks to guys like Boyd Gordon and Anton Lander doing some heavy lifting. His overall point total including powerplay points are identical from last season (56 total points), but his even strength production has definitely improved. At even strength, he ranks 17th overall in points among centers, up from 42nd last season. In terms of point production, he ranked 38th among centers, up from 80th the year prior.

For comparison’s sake, here are Taylor Hall’s numbers.

Taylor Hall 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Games 65 61 45 75 52
Points 25 31 33 53 24
Points/60 1.6 2.1 3.0 2.8 1.8
Corsi For % 47.5 51.2 49.8 43.2 49.0
Corsi For % Rel 4.8 5.6 8.2 0.2 3.5
Scoring Chances For % 47.2 50.3 49.3 45.2 47.9
Shots For % 46.0 50.4 51.4 44.8 46.2
Offensive Zone Starts % 51.2 56.7 54.0 56.6 55.7

He finished 2nd overall among left wingers at even strength last season, and 3rd overall in points per 60. In 2012-2013, he was 3rd overall in points and points per 60 at even strength. He’s obviously had a rough season this year, but I think we can expect him to bounce back to star-level status soon. Let’s hold off on those trade rumors, shall we?

Thoughts

I’d be curious to hear what MacTavish thinks of RNH’s and Eberle’s 2014/2015 season. I don’t think they’ve reached that “star-level” status that he alluded to back in September, but I think, with RNH especially, that potential is still there. We also can’t overlook the consistency of Eberle’s play, who really has established himself as a top line NHL winger.

I see both players as integral parts of the Oilers future and hope that they, along with Hall and Yakupov, could be that core to build around. Here’s hoping the club can solidify a coaching staff for next season, get some help on the blueline, and really put these young forwards in a position to succeed.

Recommended Links

RE 14-15 Jordan Eberle: Blue Sky – Lowetide

Thoughts on the Oilers: Goaltending, Coaching, Personnel, Mo’ Money

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Source: Edmonton Oilers

Source: Edmonton Oilers

This season can’t end soon enough. The Oilers are 24-43-13 with two games remaining, and are destined to finish 28th.

Goaltending

The Oilers will be looking for a new goaltender this summer with Fasth heading to free agency and Scrivens settling into a backup role. I thought Fasth would be the guy to take over, but alas, the Oilers will likely dump a pile of money at someone like Antti Niemi. His numbers are nothing great, but because of his experience and Stanley Cup ring, the Oilers, or another desperate club, will make a pitch for his services.

Good/average goaltending is really all a team can ask for from their netminder. It’s really more important to have an experienced defence core, which to me, makes or breaks a goalies career. If the Oilers want average goaltending, they really should save the money and avoid someone like Niemi. Instead the club should pursue someone younger with upside like Cam Talbot (NYR) or Martin Jones (LA). Unfortunately, MacTavish tried this last season with Scrivens and Fasth, and failed, so it’s likely he’ll chase an experienced goalie. I’m hoping the Oilers’ analytics team can uncover a goalie whose career has been good, but value has dropped because of a poor year. Darcy Kuemper (MIN) comes to mind.

Coaching

This is going to be a tough decision for MacTavish. Do you go with Nelson who has done an okay job as interim head coach or do you chase one of the top coaches who might be available after their respective playoff runs? MacTavish struck out once going with a younger coach, so my guess is he’ll make sure his next hire is a veteran guy. Not to say that Nelson or Eakins aren’t good candiates. Both have done excellent work at the AHL level providing guidance to developing players, and are worthy of NHL positions. I just imagine MacTavish going down a safer route, so he faces less criticism if/when things go south.

Size

It seems every time the Oilers lose, I come across comments online and the radio about how the Oilers need to be bigger.

Chasing a single trait like size, or even speed or skill, is extremely short sighted and is often influenced by our own personal biases and experiences. When assessing anything, whether it be a player or a car or an idea, it’s critical to remain open minded. The Oilers, for whatever reason, have chased size (i.e., coke machines) drafting or acquiring players who had limited potential (JF Jacques and Brad Isbister immediately come to mind). It’s easy to find size..just sort the list by weight and height. But it’s harder to get a big player with strong complementary traits like skating, puck control and endurance. It’ll be interesting to see how the scouting staff does this summer.

Katz

A lot has been made of how terrible the Oilers have been since Katz officially took over the club in 2008. David Staples from the Cult of Hockey put some numbers to it to highlight just how bad they’ve been relative to the rest of the league.

At the end of the day, there really is nothing we can do with who owns the team. The NHL, and other professional leagues are just a time-filler for owners. They all have other legitimate businesses running, and pro-teams are really just for fun for them. It always makes me laugh when someone refers to hockey as a “business”. It’s a cartel. Similar to the drug trade. They have their own rules, their own measure of currency, and their own economy and operational structure. So to hope that another owner comes along and takes the game more seriously is just wishful thinking. You can hope Katz can hire the right managers and staff, but it’s clear that he goes with people he knows personally and has an attachment to. Can’t do much about that, so we kinda have to roll with it.

Side note: I’ve come across a lot of interesting research on social behavior and norms, cognitive psychology stuff. One thing that’s apparent is how money impacts our decision making, the norms that guide our behavior and our relationships with others. It’s possible that Katz’ deep pockets, and early promises to spend to the cap,  may have altered how the Oilers assess and acquire players. There was a time when the Oilers actually pieced together a nice roster (see 2005/2006, Oilers). But something changed along the way where they now rely heavily on free agency and less on true scouting and asessement. Just a thought.

Recommended Links

Don’t Worry, It’s Almost Over – The Copper and Blue

The Character of the Oilers – Oilers Rig

Patience and Prudence in Development – Lowetide

Edmonton Oilers Player Grades, Game 71-80 – The Cult of Hockey

Corsi Didn’t Help Tyler Dellow or Kyle Dubas – Hockey in more than 140 Characters

Money Changes Everything – Dan Ariely

Realistic Expectations

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Source: NHL.com

Source: NHL.com

It’s been a rough season for young Schultz. Learning one of the toughest positions while playing for a bad team in the best hockey league in the world was never going to be easy. And we’re seeing what happens when you put a good prospect in a terrible position to succeed.

The bottom line is that Schultz is a prospect. And he has had zero support for his growth and development in professional hockey. The Oilers have absolutely failed this player and need to re-assess how they handle their defensemen going forward. Giving Schultz the most minutes, and the most offensive zone starts has done nothing for his progress. We’re seeing the full array of deficiencies that prospects typically possess by watching Schultz every night. It didn’t help that he not only left the team that originally drafted him and was pursued by 29 other teams, creating a bit of a prima donna perception. The Norris trophy comparisons and the unrealistic expectations have vilified the player, when really, the management group should be getting grilled,

Jonathan WIllis summed it up very nicely last week on the Lowdown with Lowetide. In regards to fans turning on Schultz:

We’re (fans) reacting to comments that comes from the team. Because it’s the team is at the upper echelon here. When Craig MacTavish says something, it travels a lot farther than when 10 people on Twitter say it.

A lot of the reaction has really been incited by the team both in how they’ve used him and in the things they’ve said about him all down the line.

If they had something realistic like…’Schultz has a lot of good offensive abilities and we really like him as a second unit defenseman and a powerplay option’, I think you’d see a lot of the distaste for Schultz become really muted because that’s a reasonable assessment of the player. He can help. He can be a useful. We just haven’t seen him put in a position to succeed yet.

When assessing Shcultz, it’s reasonable to compare his progress to players like Paul Martin and Matt Carle, players who had similar stats as Schultz in college. And bear in mind, while other teams eased in their college standouts at a young age, the Oilers threw Schultz into the fire handing him the most minutes with very little support. A few comparisons were made to Steve Smith last week, which was absurd, but I decided to see who Smith had to mentor him at age 22, compared to who Schultz had.

Oilers 1985-86 Oilers 2012-13
First Name Age   First Name Age
Lee Fogolin 30 Nick Schultz 30
Randy Gregg 29 Corey Potter 29
Don Jackson 29 Ryan Whitney 29
Charlie Huddy 26 Mark Fistric 26
Kevin Lowe 26 Ladislav Smid 26
Paul Coffey 24 Theo Peckham 25
Steve Smith 22 Jeff Petry 25
Justin Schultz 22

It’s obvious why Schultz lead the defensemen in minutes at 22, since the rest of the unit was below average. You can also see here how New Jersey and San Jose developed Martin and Carle respectively in their first two seasons coming straight out of college. It’s mind-boggling that the Oilers didn’t do more to surround Schultz with the right group of defensemen to ensure that he (a) eased his way into the line-up and (b) really earned his spot with the NHL club.

It’s blatantly obvious that the Oilers need to enhance their defensive unit for next season. To not only take on the tougher minutes, but to shelter the prospects like Schultz until they’re ready to succeed.

Oilers sign Anton Lander

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Source: NHL.com

Source: NHL.com

Great signing by the Oilers today locking up centerman Anton Lander for another two years. Next year’s roster will have him, RNH and Gordon at center. That leaves room for one more centerman, but I’m hoping the Oil load up down the middle and shift one or two to wing. The signing of Lander means there’s a good chance that Leon Draisaitl (hopefully) starts in the AHL next season, which is ideal considering his age and potential. It also sets up a nice comparable to use when the team negotiates with Derek Roy. Roy has more experience, for sure, but I don’t think he has as much speed and skill as Lander.

Now I’ve been a fan of Lander’s since he was drafted by the Oilers in 2009. The stories about him coming out of Sweden were very encouraging, and we heard lots about his leadership potential. Copper and Blue is a fantastic source for this kind of stuff and they had a very fair assessment of Lander and what his potential might be in 2009. To me, he sounded like our next Horcoff: two way centre to play against tougher competition. Six years later, he’s starting to look like that type of NHL player. And he saves hockey teams in his free time.

It really was just a matter of time before Lander established himself as a legitimate NHL player. He had a good junior career and did well in the AHL, even being named team captain for OKC at that young of an age. His production at the AHL level (107 GP, 28 G, 49 A, 77 PTS) meant he should be able to transition into a versatile, third line center who could help on the powerplay and penalty kill. He won’t win you games, but he won’t lose you games either.

The reality was that Lander did not have legitimate linemates prior to this season and was often given tougher zone starts with those weak linemates [Copper and Blue]. Now a good team would either let a player like Lander develop in the minors first OR start him at wing before transitioning him to center OR shelter him from tough opposition. The Oilers did none of that and decided to throw him into a position they thought he would end up in sometime in his career: bottom six.

What irks me is the fact that the Oilers decided to hang on to young Leon at the start of the season, basically leaving one spot open for either Arcobello or Lander. Draisaitl was of course sent back to juniors a few weeks after Eakins was fired and only after his rights were traded out of Prince Albert, The timing was perfect for Lander as his coach from OKC was now in charge and Pouliot had found some nice chemistry with Eberle and RNH, pushing Hall down a line to pair up with Lander. A lot of credit should go to Nelson for helping Lander find his game in the AHL and the NHL. But we also have to keep in mind that there were a number of things that Oilers management did to stall and then facilitate Lander’s transition to the NHL.

Here’s hoping that Lander has a solid career in the NHL, and that the Oilers have learned a few things about how to develop a centerman,

Recommended Links

Anton Lander signs a two-year extension with the Edmonton Oilers and at a value price – Cult of Hockey

Can Todd Nelson Save Anton Lander – Lowetide

Edmonton Oilers Re-sign Anton Lander – OilersNation

Oilers Re-sign Anton Lander – The Oilers Rig

Productivity of Players Under Eakins and Nelson

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Source: Winnipeg Free Press

Source: Winnipeg Free Press

In my last post, I focused on the longest losing streaks each coach has had behind the bench this year. The purpose was to find out why Nelson’s losing streak was somewhat dismissed, while Eakins losing streak received a far greater backlash. Eakins’ 11-game skid had some decent underlying numbers at 5-on-5, but had some sketchy goaltending and a weak powerplay and failed to have any positive results. Nelson just finished off a 7-game streak, where they were absolutely lights-out on the powerplay, but had some troubling underlying stats at 5-on-5. My guess is that the success of the powerplay, and the point production of the young guns like Eberle, RNH and Yakupov gave the perception that Nelson was doing a better job.

I received a comment that suggested that individual players have benefited from the coaching change and their production has been better under Nelson. At first glance, it appears to be true. Eberle and RNH in particular have been outstanding over the past few weeks, with a large chunk of their points coming on the powerplay. Make no mistake, Nelson has done very well with the man advantage, something he was known for at the AHL level, and deserves full credit for its success. My take, however, is that 5-on-5 play is much more important, so I decided to take a look at the productivity of players at even strength under the two different coaches.

Please note, I exclude the five games that MacTavish was behind the bench in all of my comparisons involving Nelson. I’ve included in the list below the players who played under both coaches. (Source: War on Ice)

Eakins Nelson
Name

Pos.

Games

 P60 CF% TOI/Gm Games P60 CF% TOI/Gm
Ryan.Nugent-Hopkins C 29 1.97 51.83 15.79 37 1.73 50.57 15.00
Nail.Yakupov LR 31 0.93 48.90 12.47 36 1.51 43.48 13.26
Taylor.Hall L 25 1.65 53.15 16.04 14 2.31 50.38 14.86
Jordan.Eberle R 30 1.82 53.97 15.41 37 2.24 50.29 15.23
Benoit.Pouliot L 20 2.19 51.47 10.95 29 1.44 51.23 12.96
Boyd.Gordon C 27 1.11 46.68 10.02 37 0.63 42.02 10.33
Luke.Gazdic L 10 0.00 45.37 7.03 19 1.33 46.30 7.13
Matt.Hendricks LR 27 0.68 47.54 9.80 35 0.87 43.63 11.80
Leon.Draisaitl CL 31 0.88 52.76 11.05 2 5.73 56.76 10.47
Tyler.Pitlick RC 7 0.68 51.54 12.57 2 0.00 30.43 10.70
Iiro.Pakarinen RL 5 1.65 50.00 7.25 12 0.00 47.17 10.79
David.Perron RL 31 1.73 52.01 13.43 2 2.49 57.14 12.07
Teddy.Purcell RL 31 1.23 54.70 12.56 37 0.85 46.23 13.37
Justin.Schultz D 30 0.92 50.99 17.32 37 0.44 50.58 18.59
Jeff.Petry D 30 0.33 53.00 17.97 24 0.74 43.09 16.93
Keith.Aulie D 12 0.00 51.60 12.59 10 0.45 36.86 13.28
Mark.Fayne D 31 0.53 49.49 14.52 37 0.22 44.19 15.05
Andrew.Ference D 28 0.24 48.45 18.04 37 0.94 41.98 15.46
Oscar.Klefbom D 10 0.33 53.52 18.34 37 0.97 50.91 18.40
Martin.Marincin D 12 0.34 51.29 14.56 20 0.00 49.00 16.07
Nikita.Nikitin D 22 0.53 50.57 15.46 15 0.27 45.83 14.83

Looking at the point production (points per 60), the two players that saw an increase of their 5-on-5 production under Nelson are Eberle and Yakupov. Hall’s numbers increase, but that may have been because he was banged up early in the season. What’s surprising is the decrease in productivity for players like RNH, Pouliot, Gordon, Purcell and even Schultz. What’s troubling is the decrease in the possession numbers (Corsi For %) across the board. We are seeing that the team does struggle with possession in all score situations (whether they’re trailing, leading or the game is tied) under Nelson, while Eakins had something figured out when it comes to 5-on-5 play.

And here are the players who were coached by one and not the other. Included are guys like Lander, Roy and Klinkhammer who have all done relatively well with Nelson behind the bench, but still struggle possession wise.

Eakins Nelson
Name

pos

 Gm P60 CF% TOI/Gm Gm P60 CF%

TOI/Gm
Anton.Lander C – – – – 28 1.19 48.29 10.82
Derek.Roy C – – – – 37 1.67 45.93 13.63
Ryan.Hamilton L – – – – 16 0.32 40.99 11.54
Rob.Klinkhammer L – – – – 32 0.48 46.22 11.67
Matt.Fraser LR – – – – 28 1.21 41.71 10.62
Drew.Miller RC – – – – 3 0.00 53.25 11.19
Jordan.Oesterle D – – – – 6 0.75 49.64 13.42
Will.Acton C 3 0.00 44.68 9.22 – – – –
Bogdan.Yakimov C 1 0.00 61.54 10.05 – – – –
Mark.Arcobello CR 31 0.89 49.86 13.10 – – – –
Steven.Pinizzotto R 13 1.20 43.51 7.68 – – – –
Jesse.Joensuu RL 20 0.63 45.93 9.57 – – – –
Brandon.Davidson D 3 0.00 42.86 10.52 – – – –
Darnell.Nurse D 2 0.00 56.36 15.21 – – – –
Brad.Hunt D 6 0.00 50.00 15.82 – – – –

What’s become apparent is that individuals are producing more points, but it’s due in large part to the successful powerplay. Stripping the powerplay away, however, gives us a better assessment on how the team is doing for the majority of the game. In this case, the production has increased for some and decreased for others. When it comes to possession, which is a key indicator of team success, the entire team is struggling mightily.

Both Eakins and Nelson are qualified NHL coaches, having found success at the AHL level, and will likely be employed in some capacity next season in the NHL. Nelson should definitely be considered for the OIlers head coaching position next season along with other experienced coaches available this summer. The problem is that the Oilers are struggling to assemble an NHL caliber roster, and until they do, it really won’t matter who the coach is next season.

Talking Oilers, centers and player development on the Lowdown with Lowetide

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Had a chance to discuss the Oilers with Lowetide on Friday and share some of my thoughts on the teams problems at center. The full interview is here, starting around the six minute mark.

Couple notes I thought would be worth sharing:

  • Allan had an excellent post up this morning that framed our discussion. Going into next season, the Oilers have RNH, Lander, Gordon and possibly Derek Roy, who is set to become a free agent this summer. It’s not a terrible list of players, but they would be one injury away from losing another season.
  • The Oilers have finally (!) proven their ability to run an AHL franchise as the Barons have helped develop a number of players and coaches for the parent club. Here’s hoping the Oilers have the same success as they relocate the Barons to Bakersfield, California next season.
  • Without a doubt, the AHL is the ideal place for centers to develop. A lot of the top centers in the game today had spent some time in the minors before making the jump, including Tyler Johnson, Joe Pavelski, Claude Giroux, and Ryan Getzlaf. I mentioned Nazem Kadri this morning, mainly because I think he’s one of the best young centers in the game, who was selected very high by the Leafs (7th overall) in the 2009 draft. He played four full seasons in the OHL, between Kitchener and London, before making the jump to pro, playing just under 100 games with the Marlies. (Note, I typically don’t credit players for playing in the AHL during the lockout.)
  • The whole debate about where Hall should play when he returns this weekend is great, mostly because we finally have the depth to discuss such a case. Let’s not get crazy and start suggesting Hall should be moved because of Pouliots success with RNH and Eberle. Instead, we can start digging into what line combinations work based on player attributes and some of the underlying stats. My take is Hall should be on the top line, just to get back into game shape plus I think his style of play is too similar to Yakupov’s. Gregor had an excellent piece on why Hall playing with Roy and Yakupov might actually be a good fit, using the ever valuable WOWY stats.
  • David Staples from the Cult of Hockey had a good piece on why Derek Roy should be re-signed by the Oilers using the scoring chances he tracks. I’d definitely look to sign Roy plus additional centers who can play wing, to solidify the depth at center and allow for guys like Draisatl and Yakimov to develop in the AHL next season.
  • Good business article from MIT on why/how people make poor decisions during winning streaks. Thought it could apply to the Derek Roy situation as well. Prior to the recent advancements in both technology and the lending industry, procuring conventional loans from the traditional lending institutions often entailed impossibly difficult requirements and processes that demand much patience on the part of the borrowers. I visited the site and look what i found.
  • A mistake I made was saying that Vladimir Sobotka was an unrestricted free agent this summer. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey pointed out that Sobotka still technically owes the Blues the one year term he was awarded in arbitration, as he left the club to play in the KHL. Having said that, there could still be a deal made if the Oilers get a little creative and take advantage of the Blues’ cap situation.
  • Michael Frolik would be a nice addition at center, but he’ll likely stay in WInnepeg. He’s only 27 with over 500 NHL games, playing a big role in Winnipeg’s push for the playoffs. He’s a strong possession player that can play wing, plus he has a relatively impressive HERO chart.

Frolik

Developing defensemen

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Justin Schultz

Justin Schultz

It’s been pretty apparent that Justin Schultz has struggled in his third professional season. Regardless of his performance, there is value in keeping him on the roster. He’s still a prospect who’s still a ways away from being a good quality NHL defensemen. For now, we’re seeing glimpses of his offensive potential, which if developed and deployed correctly, could be a huge piece of the Oilers foundation. What irks most fans is that he’s not performing well even though he gets a lot of the prime minutes and has (very) strong support from management.

You really can’t blame him for the Norris trophy comments. I’m sure MacT would take that one back since it put a lot of unneeded attention and pressure on a 22 year old. Schultz did use a loop hole to leave the Ducks and cash-in on a new deal with the Oilers, something that others have done as well, but that shouldn’t skew the fact that he’s still a young prospect finding his way in the NHL.

Who you can blame for Schultz overall performance and development is the Oilers management team.

They’ve had extremely high expectations since they signed him as a free agent. The Norris trophy comment came out, which made many think of recent recipients like PK Subban, Zdeno Chara, Duncan Keith and Erik Karllson. Realistically, the expectations should have been based on proper metrics of comparable players with similar performance in college and draft selection. Something that Scott Reynolds put together when Schultz signed with the Oilers. Here’s the group of defensemen who had similar stats as Schultz in college and were selected in the second round. Not a bad group at all:

Player Draft Year Draft Number Freshman Age Points per game
Freshman Sophomore Junior
Matt Carle 2003 47 18y 9m 0.87 1.02 1.36
Brendan Smith 2007 27 18y 7m 0.55 0.74 1.24
Justin Schultz 2008 43 19y 2m 0.51 1.15 1.19
Jordan Leopold 1999 44 18y 1m 0.59 0.62 1.17
Jamie McBain 2006 63 18y 7m 0.50 0.69 0.93
Paul Martin 2000 62 18y 6m 0.53 0.86 0.87
Alex Goligoski 2004 61 19y 3m 0.63 0.95 0.89

Source: Copper and Blue

Three of the players, Matt Carle, Paul Martin and Jordan Leopold, made the jump straight from college into the NHL. We know Schultz did spend some time in the AHL with Hall, Eberle and RNH during the lockout, but you can be assured that he would’ve been pushed right into the NHL had the lockout been avoided.

The key thing is to surround the prospect with defensemen in their absolute prime (age 26-30, 300+ NHL games) to carry most of the load while the young prospect can be deployed in the right situations. Here’s a look at the defensive rosters that the three rookies from college had in their first and second professional seasons along with their total time-on-ice (TOI).

Matt Carle
San Jose Sharks (2006-07) San Jose Sharks (2007-08)
Player Age GP TOI Player Age GP TOI
Hannan 28 79 1,803 Vlasic 20 82 1,772
Vlasic 19 81 1,798 Ehrhoff 25 77 1,673
Ehrhoff 24 82 1,523 Rivet 33 74 1,569
McLaren 29 67 1,435 Murray 27 66 1,153
Carle 22 77 1,397 McLaren 30 61 1,120
Murray 26 35 377 Carle 23 62 1,026
Davison 26 22 205 Ozolinsh 35 39 662
Paul Martin
New Jersey Devils (2003-04) New Jersey Devils (2005-06)
Player Age GP TOI Player Age GP TOI
Niedermayer 30 81 2,100 Rafalski 32 82 2,093
White 26 75 1,577 Martin 24 80 1,889
Rafalski 30 69 1,573 White 28 73 1,591
Martin 22 70 1,409 Matvichuk 32 62 1,130
Hale 22 65 976 Malakhov 37 29 601
Stevens 39 38 913 Albelin 41 36 503
Albelin 39 45 666 Hale 24 38 458
Brown 27 39 544 McGillis 33 27 384
Jordan Leopold
Calgary Flames (2002-03) Calgary Flames (2003-04)
Player Age GP TOI Player Age GP TOI
Lydman 25 81 2,088 Regehr 23 82 1,832
Regehr 22 76 1,729 Leopold 23 82 1,822
Gauthier 26 72 1,431 Warrener 28 77 1,530
Boughner 31 69 1,370 Gauthier 27 80 1,498
Leopold 22 58 1,195 Lydman 26 67 1,421
Montador 23 50 759 Ference 24 72 1,344
Buzek 25 44 632 Montador 24 26 306
DuPont 22 16 268 Commodore 24 12 183

Aaand, here’s who Schultz had in his first two seasons:

Edmonton Oilers (2012-13) Edmonton Oilers (2013-14)
Player Age GP TOI Player Age GP TOI
Petry 25 48 1,052 Schultz 23 74 1,728
Schultz 22 48 1,030 Petry 26 80 1,727
Smid 26 48 975 Ference 34 71 1,495
Schultz 30 48 894 Belov 27 57 951
Whitney 29 34 628 Marincin 21 44 843
Potter 29 33 576 Larsen 24 30 515
Fistric 26 25 383 Klefbom 20 17 269

Source: Hockey Abstract

Now you can make a case for each of the Oilers defenseman and their positive or negative impact on Schultz. The main thing I wanted to illustrate is that if the Oilers had looked at legitimate comparables, they may have seen the value in surrounding young Schultz with quality defensemen in their primes. Both Carle and Martin benefited from being on well built rosters with their development in mind, and have established themselves as reliable NHL players.

It would be a huge benefit to the young prospects like Schultz, Klefbom and Marincin if the Oilers can land some experienced, in-their-prime, defenders this summer. That might mean reduced minutes for the young players, but it at least takes some of the burden away and lets them flourish in more specific situations (i.e., power play, offensive zone starts).

Finally, I just want to re-emphasize the realistic expectations we should have on Schultz. Below are the points per 60 by season for Schultz and each of the three comparable players. Very high level, but it might help to temper some of the Norris trophy expectations.

P60

Just a side note: Bruce made a great point yesterday on Lowetide’s show regarding some of the excessive comments against Craig MacTavish. Critique his work all you want, and pick apart every one of his moves, but there’s really no need for the personal insults. Part of being a fan is about furthering our knowledge about the game, and the cheap shots to people running the team does nothing to push the discussion along.