Edmonton Oilers

Realistic Expectations

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment
Source: NHL.com

Source: NHL.com

It’s been a rough season for young Schultz. Learning one of the toughest positions while playing for a bad team in the best hockey league in the world was never going to be easy. And we’re seeing what happens when you put a good prospect in a terrible position to succeed.

The bottom line is that Schultz is a prospect. And he has had zero support for his growth and development in professional hockey. The Oilers have absolutely failed this player and need to re-assess how they handle their defensemen going forward. Giving Schultz the most minutes, and the most offensive zone starts has done nothing for his progress. We’re seeing the full array of deficiencies that prospects typically possess by watching Schultz every night. It didn’t help that he not only left the team that originally drafted him and was pursued by 29 other teams, creating a bit of a prima donna perception. The Norris trophy comparisons and the unrealistic expectations have vilified the player, when really, the management group should be getting grilled,

Jonathan WIllis summed it up very nicely last week on the Lowdown with Lowetide. In regards to fans turning on Schultz:

We’re (fans) reacting to comments that comes from the team. Because it’s the team is at the upper echelon here. When Craig MacTavish says something, it travels a lot farther than when 10 people on Twitter say it.

A lot of the reaction has really been incited by the team both in how they’ve used him and in the things they’ve said about him all down the line.

If they had something realistic like…’Schultz has a lot of good offensive abilities and we really like him as a second unit defenseman and a powerplay option’, I think you’d see a lot of the distaste for Schultz become really muted because that’s a reasonable assessment of the player. He can help. He can be a useful. We just haven’t seen him put in a position to succeed yet.

When assessing Shcultz, it’s reasonable to compare his progress to players like Paul Martin and Matt Carle, players who had similar stats as Schultz in college. And bear in mind, while other teams eased in their college standouts at a young age, the Oilers threw Schultz into the fire handing him the most minutes with very little support. A few comparisons were made to Steve Smith last week, which was absurd, but I decided to see who Smith had to mentor him at age 22, compared to who Schultz had.

Oilers 1985-86 Oilers 2012-13
First Name Age   First Name Age
Lee Fogolin 30 Nick Schultz 30
Randy Gregg 29 Corey Potter 29
Don Jackson 29 Ryan Whitney 29
Charlie Huddy 26 Mark Fistric 26
Kevin Lowe 26 Ladislav Smid 26
Paul Coffey 24 Theo Peckham 25
Steve Smith 22 Jeff Petry 25
Justin Schultz 22

It’s obvious why Schultz lead the defensemen in minutes at 22, since the rest of the unit was below average. You can also see here how New Jersey and San Jose developed Martin and Carle respectively in their first two seasons coming straight out of college. It’s mind-boggling that the Oilers didn’t do more to surround Schultz with the right group of defensemen to ensure that he (a) eased his way into the line-up and (b) really earned his spot with the NHL club.

It’s blatantly obvious that the Oilers need to enhance their defensive unit for next season. To not only take on the tougher minutes, but to shelter the prospects like Schultz until they’re ready to succeed.

Oilers sign Anton Lander

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment
Source: NHL.com

Source: NHL.com

Great signing by the Oilers today locking up centerman Anton Lander for another two years. Next year’s roster will have him, RNH and Gordon at center. That leaves room for one more centerman, but I’m hoping the Oil load up down the middle and shift one or two to wing. The signing of Lander means there’s a good chance that Leon Draisaitl (hopefully) starts in the AHL next season, which is ideal considering his age and potential. It also sets up a nice comparable to use when the team negotiates with Derek Roy. Roy has more experience, for sure, but I don’t think he has as much speed and skill as Lander.

Now I’ve been a fan of Lander’s since he was drafted by the Oilers in 2009. The stories about him coming out of Sweden were very encouraging, and we heard lots about his leadership potential. Copper and Blue is a fantastic source for this kind of stuff and they had a very fair assessment of Lander and what his potential might be in 2009. To me, he sounded like our next Horcoff: two way centre to play against tougher competition. Six years later, he’s starting to look like that type of NHL player. And he saves hockey teams in his free time.

It really was just a matter of time before Lander established himself as a legitimate NHL player. He had a good junior career and did well in the AHL, even being named team captain for OKC at that young of an age. His production at the AHL level (107 GP, 28 G, 49 A, 77 PTS) meant he should be able to transition into a versatile, third line center who could help on the powerplay and penalty kill. He won’t win you games, but he won’t lose you games either.

The reality was that Lander did not have legitimate linemates prior to this season and was often given tougher zone starts with those weak linemates [Copper and Blue]. Now a good team would either let a player like Lander develop in the minors first OR start him at wing before transitioning him to center OR shelter him from tough opposition. The Oilers did none of that and decided to throw him into a position they thought he would end up in sometime in his career: bottom six.

What irks me is the fact that the Oilers decided to hang on to young Leon at the start of the season, basically leaving one spot open for either Arcobello or Lander. Draisaitl was of course sent back to juniors a few weeks after Eakins was fired and only after his rights were traded out of Prince Albert, The timing was perfect for Lander as his coach from OKC was now in charge and Pouliot had found some nice chemistry with Eberle and RNH, pushing Hall down a line to pair up with Lander. A lot of credit should go to Nelson for helping Lander find his game in the AHL and the NHL. But we also have to keep in mind that there were a number of things that Oilers management did to stall and then facilitate Lander’s transition to the NHL.

Here’s hoping that Lander has a solid career in the NHL, and that the Oilers have learned a few things about how to develop a centerman,

Recommended Links

Anton Lander signs a two-year extension with the Edmonton Oilers and at a value price – Cult of Hockey

Can Todd Nelson Save Anton Lander – Lowetide

Edmonton Oilers Re-sign Anton Lander – OilersNation

Oilers Re-sign Anton Lander – The Oilers Rig

Productivity of Players Under Eakins and Nelson

/ sunilagni / 10 Comments
Source: Winnipeg Free Press

Source: Winnipeg Free Press

In my last post, I focused on the longest losing streaks each coach has had behind the bench this year. The purpose was to find out why Nelson’s losing streak was somewhat dismissed, while Eakins losing streak received a far greater backlash. Eakins’ 11-game skid had some decent underlying numbers at 5-on-5, but had some sketchy goaltending and a weak powerplay and failed to have any positive results. Nelson just finished off a 7-game streak, where they were absolutely lights-out on the powerplay, but had some troubling underlying stats at 5-on-5. My guess is that the success of the powerplay, and the point production of the young guns like Eberle, RNH and Yakupov gave the perception that Nelson was doing a better job.

I received a comment that suggested that individual players have benefited from the coaching change and their production has been better under Nelson. At first glance, it appears to be true. Eberle and RNH in particular have been outstanding over the past few weeks, with a large chunk of their points coming on the powerplay. Make no mistake, Nelson has done very well with the man advantage, something he was known for at the AHL level, and deserves full credit for its success. My take, however, is that 5-on-5 play is much more important, so I decided to take a look at the productivity of players at even strength under the two different coaches.

Please note, I exclude the five games that MacTavish was behind the bench in all of my comparisons involving Nelson. I’ve included in the list below the players who played under both coaches. (Source: War on Ice)

Eakins Nelson
Name

Pos.

Games

 P60 CF% TOI/Gm Games P60 CF% TOI/Gm
Ryan.Nugent-Hopkins C 29 1.97 51.83 15.79 37 1.73 50.57 15.00
Nail.Yakupov LR 31 0.93 48.90 12.47 36 1.51 43.48 13.26
Taylor.Hall L 25 1.65 53.15 16.04 14 2.31 50.38 14.86
Jordan.Eberle R 30 1.82 53.97 15.41 37 2.24 50.29 15.23
Benoit.Pouliot L 20 2.19 51.47 10.95 29 1.44 51.23 12.96
Boyd.Gordon C 27 1.11 46.68 10.02 37 0.63 42.02 10.33
Luke.Gazdic L 10 0.00 45.37 7.03 19 1.33 46.30 7.13
Matt.Hendricks LR 27 0.68 47.54 9.80 35 0.87 43.63 11.80
Leon.Draisaitl CL 31 0.88 52.76 11.05 2 5.73 56.76 10.47
Tyler.Pitlick RC 7 0.68 51.54 12.57 2 0.00 30.43 10.70
Iiro.Pakarinen RL 5 1.65 50.00 7.25 12 0.00 47.17 10.79
David.Perron RL 31 1.73 52.01 13.43 2 2.49 57.14 12.07
Teddy.Purcell RL 31 1.23 54.70 12.56 37 0.85 46.23 13.37
Justin.Schultz D 30 0.92 50.99 17.32 37 0.44 50.58 18.59
Jeff.Petry D 30 0.33 53.00 17.97 24 0.74 43.09 16.93
Keith.Aulie D 12 0.00 51.60 12.59 10 0.45 36.86 13.28
Mark.Fayne D 31 0.53 49.49 14.52 37 0.22 44.19 15.05
Andrew.Ference D 28 0.24 48.45 18.04 37 0.94 41.98 15.46
Oscar.Klefbom D 10 0.33 53.52 18.34 37 0.97 50.91 18.40
Martin.Marincin D 12 0.34 51.29 14.56 20 0.00 49.00 16.07
Nikita.Nikitin D 22 0.53 50.57 15.46 15 0.27 45.83 14.83

Looking at the point production (points per 60), the two players that saw an increase of their 5-on-5 production under Nelson are Eberle and Yakupov. Hall’s numbers increase, but that may have been because he was banged up early in the season. What’s surprising is the decrease in productivity for players like RNH, Pouliot, Gordon, Purcell and even Schultz. What’s troubling is the decrease in the possession numbers (Corsi For %) across the board. We are seeing that the team does struggle with possession in all score situations (whether they’re trailing, leading or the game is tied) under Nelson, while Eakins had something figured out when it comes to 5-on-5 play.

And here are the players who were coached by one and not the other. Included are guys like Lander, Roy and Klinkhammer who have all done relatively well with Nelson behind the bench, but still struggle possession wise.

Eakins Nelson
Name

pos

 Gm P60 CF% TOI/Gm Gm P60 CF%

TOI/Gm
Anton.Lander C – – – – 28 1.19 48.29 10.82
Derek.Roy C – – – – 37 1.67 45.93 13.63
Ryan.Hamilton L – – – – 16 0.32 40.99 11.54
Rob.Klinkhammer L – – – – 32 0.48 46.22 11.67
Matt.Fraser LR – – – – 28 1.21 41.71 10.62
Drew.Miller RC – – – – 3 0.00 53.25 11.19
Jordan.Oesterle D – – – – 6 0.75 49.64 13.42
Will.Acton C 3 0.00 44.68 9.22 – – – –
Bogdan.Yakimov C 1 0.00 61.54 10.05 – – – –
Mark.Arcobello CR 31 0.89 49.86 13.10 – – – –
Steven.Pinizzotto R 13 1.20 43.51 7.68 – – – –
Jesse.Joensuu RL 20 0.63 45.93 9.57 – – – –
Brandon.Davidson D 3 0.00 42.86 10.52 – – – –
Darnell.Nurse D 2 0.00 56.36 15.21 – – – –
Brad.Hunt D 6 0.00 50.00 15.82 – – – –

What’s become apparent is that individuals are producing more points, but it’s due in large part to the successful powerplay. Stripping the powerplay away, however, gives us a better assessment on how the team is doing for the majority of the game. In this case, the production has increased for some and decreased for others. When it comes to possession, which is a key indicator of team success, the entire team is struggling mightily.

Both Eakins and Nelson are qualified NHL coaches, having found success at the AHL level, and will likely be employed in some capacity next season in the NHL. Nelson should definitely be considered for the OIlers head coaching position next season along with other experienced coaches available this summer. The problem is that the Oilers are struggling to assemble an NHL caliber roster, and until they do, it really won’t matter who the coach is next season.

Talking Oilers, centers and player development on the Lowdown with Lowetide

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Had a chance to discuss the Oilers with Lowetide on Friday and share some of my thoughts on the teams problems at center. The full interview is here, starting around the six minute mark.

Couple notes I thought would be worth sharing:

  • Allan had an excellent post up this morning that framed our discussion. Going into next season, the Oilers have RNH, Lander, Gordon and possibly Derek Roy, who is set to become a free agent this summer. It’s not a terrible list of players, but they would be one injury away from losing another season.
  • The Oilers have finally (!) proven their ability to run an AHL franchise as the Barons have helped develop a number of players and coaches for the parent club. Here’s hoping the Oilers have the same success as they relocate the Barons to Bakersfield, California next season.
  • Without a doubt, the AHL is the ideal place for centers to develop. A lot of the top centers in the game today had spent some time in the minors before making the jump, including Tyler Johnson, Joe Pavelski, Claude Giroux, and Ryan Getzlaf. I mentioned Nazem Kadri this morning, mainly because I think he’s one of the best young centers in the game, who was selected very high by the Leafs (7th overall) in the 2009 draft. He played four full seasons in the OHL, between Kitchener and London, before making the jump to pro, playing just under 100 games with the Marlies. (Note, I typically don’t credit players for playing in the AHL during the lockout.)
  • The whole debate about where Hall should play when he returns this weekend is great, mostly because we finally have the depth to discuss such a case. Let’s not get crazy and start suggesting Hall should be moved because of Pouliots success with RNH and Eberle. Instead, we can start digging into what line combinations work based on player attributes and some of the underlying stats. My take is Hall should be on the top line, just to get back into game shape plus I think his style of play is too similar to Yakupov’s. Gregor had an excellent piece on why Hall playing with Roy and Yakupov might actually be a good fit, using the ever valuable WOWY stats.
  • David Staples from the Cult of Hockey had a good piece on why Derek Roy should be re-signed by the Oilers using the scoring chances he tracks. I’d definitely look to sign Roy plus additional centers who can play wing, to solidify the depth at center and allow for guys like Draisatl and Yakimov to develop in the AHL next season.
  • Good business article from MIT on why/how people make poor decisions during winning streaks. Thought it could apply to the Derek Roy situation as well. Prior to the recent advancements in both technology and the lending industry, procuring conventional loans from the traditional lending institutions often entailed impossibly difficult requirements and processes that demand much patience on the part of the borrowers. I visited the site and look what i found.
  • A mistake I made was saying that Vladimir Sobotka was an unrestricted free agent this summer. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey pointed out that Sobotka still technically owes the Blues the one year term he was awarded in arbitration, as he left the club to play in the KHL. Having said that, there could still be a deal made if the Oilers get a little creative and take advantage of the Blues’ cap situation.
  • Michael Frolik would be a nice addition at center, but he’ll likely stay in WInnepeg. He’s only 27 with over 500 NHL games, playing a big role in Winnipeg’s push for the playoffs. He’s a strong possession player that can play wing, plus he has a relatively impressive HERO chart.

Frolik

Developing defensemen

/ sunilagni / 3 Comments
Justin Schultz

Justin Schultz

It’s been pretty apparent that Justin Schultz has struggled in his third professional season. Regardless of his performance, there is value in keeping him on the roster. He’s still a prospect who’s still a ways away from being a good quality NHL defensemen. For now, we’re seeing glimpses of his offensive potential, which if developed and deployed correctly, could be a huge piece of the Oilers foundation. What irks most fans is that he’s not performing well even though he gets a lot of the prime minutes and has (very) strong support from management.

You really can’t blame him for the Norris trophy comments. I’m sure MacT would take that one back since it put a lot of unneeded attention and pressure on a 22 year old. Schultz did use a loop hole to leave the Ducks and cash-in on a new deal with the Oilers, something that others have done as well, but that shouldn’t skew the fact that he’s still a young prospect finding his way in the NHL.

Who you can blame for Schultz overall performance and development is the Oilers management team.

They’ve had extremely high expectations since they signed him as a free agent. The Norris trophy comment came out, which made many think of recent recipients like PK Subban, Zdeno Chara, Duncan Keith and Erik Karllson. Realistically, the expectations should have been based on proper metrics of comparable players with similar performance in college and draft selection. Something that Scott Reynolds put together when Schultz signed with the Oilers. Here’s the group of defensemen who had similar stats as Schultz in college and were selected in the second round. Not a bad group at all:

Player Draft Year Draft Number Freshman Age Points per game
Freshman Sophomore Junior
Matt Carle 2003 47 18y 9m 0.87 1.02 1.36
Brendan Smith 2007 27 18y 7m 0.55 0.74 1.24
Justin Schultz 2008 43 19y 2m 0.51 1.15 1.19
Jordan Leopold 1999 44 18y 1m 0.59 0.62 1.17
Jamie McBain 2006 63 18y 7m 0.50 0.69 0.93
Paul Martin 2000 62 18y 6m 0.53 0.86 0.87
Alex Goligoski 2004 61 19y 3m 0.63 0.95 0.89

Source: Copper and Blue

Three of the players, Matt Carle, Paul Martin and Jordan Leopold, made the jump straight from college into the NHL. We know Schultz did spend some time in the AHL with Hall, Eberle and RNH during the lockout, but you can be assured that he would’ve been pushed right into the NHL had the lockout been avoided.

The key thing is to surround the prospect with defensemen in their absolute prime (age 26-30, 300+ NHL games) to carry most of the load while the young prospect can be deployed in the right situations. Here’s a look at the defensive rosters that the three rookies from college had in their first and second professional seasons along with their total time-on-ice (TOI).

Matt Carle
San Jose Sharks (2006-07) San Jose Sharks (2007-08)
Player Age GP TOI Player Age GP TOI
Hannan 28 79 1,803 Vlasic 20 82 1,772
Vlasic 19 81 1,798 Ehrhoff 25 77 1,673
Ehrhoff 24 82 1,523 Rivet 33 74 1,569
McLaren 29 67 1,435 Murray 27 66 1,153
Carle 22 77 1,397 McLaren 30 61 1,120
Murray 26 35 377 Carle 23 62 1,026
Davison 26 22 205 Ozolinsh 35 39 662
Paul Martin
New Jersey Devils (2003-04) New Jersey Devils (2005-06)
Player Age GP TOI Player Age GP TOI
Niedermayer 30 81 2,100 Rafalski 32 82 2,093
White 26 75 1,577 Martin 24 80 1,889
Rafalski 30 69 1,573 White 28 73 1,591
Martin 22 70 1,409 Matvichuk 32 62 1,130
Hale 22 65 976 Malakhov 37 29 601
Stevens 39 38 913 Albelin 41 36 503
Albelin 39 45 666 Hale 24 38 458
Brown 27 39 544 McGillis 33 27 384
Jordan Leopold
Calgary Flames (2002-03) Calgary Flames (2003-04)
Player Age GP TOI Player Age GP TOI
Lydman 25 81 2,088 Regehr 23 82 1,832
Regehr 22 76 1,729 Leopold 23 82 1,822
Gauthier 26 72 1,431 Warrener 28 77 1,530
Boughner 31 69 1,370 Gauthier 27 80 1,498
Leopold 22 58 1,195 Lydman 26 67 1,421
Montador 23 50 759 Ference 24 72 1,344
Buzek 25 44 632 Montador 24 26 306
DuPont 22 16 268 Commodore 24 12 183

Aaand, here’s who Schultz had in his first two seasons:

Edmonton Oilers (2012-13) Edmonton Oilers (2013-14)
Player Age GP TOI Player Age GP TOI
Petry 25 48 1,052 Schultz 23 74 1,728
Schultz 22 48 1,030 Petry 26 80 1,727
Smid 26 48 975 Ference 34 71 1,495
Schultz 30 48 894 Belov 27 57 951
Whitney 29 34 628 Marincin 21 44 843
Potter 29 33 576 Larsen 24 30 515
Fistric 26 25 383 Klefbom 20 17 269

Source: Hockey Abstract

Now you can make a case for each of the Oilers defenseman and their positive or negative impact on Schultz. The main thing I wanted to illustrate is that if the Oilers had looked at legitimate comparables, they may have seen the value in surrounding young Schultz with quality defensemen in their primes. Both Carle and Martin benefited from being on well built rosters with their development in mind, and have established themselves as reliable NHL players.

It would be a huge benefit to the young prospects like Schultz, Klefbom and Marincin if the Oilers can land some experienced, in-their-prime, defenders this summer. That might mean reduced minutes for the young players, but it at least takes some of the burden away and lets them flourish in more specific situations (i.e., power play, offensive zone starts).

Finally, I just want to re-emphasize the realistic expectations we should have on Schultz. Below are the points per 60 by season for Schultz and each of the three comparable players. Very high level, but it might help to temper some of the Norris trophy expectations.

P60

Just a side note: Bruce made a great point yesterday on Lowetide’s show regarding some of the excessive comments against Craig MacTavish. Critique his work all you want, and pick apart every one of his moves, but there’s really no need for the personal insults. Part of being a fan is about furthering our knowledge about the game, and the cheap shots to people running the team does nothing to push the discussion along.

Talking Oilers, player development and defence rosters on Lowdown with Lowetide

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Mr. Allan Mitchell (aka. Lowetide) invited me as a guest to his show this morning to talk Oilers and specifically the defensive rosters before and after Pronger. We talked about a recent article I wrote (Pre and Post Pronger) and dug a little deeper into the Oilers current method of developing defenseman. The full radio interview is here, starting around the seven and a half minute mark (suggest reading the above article first):

A couple of notes I wanted to add:

  • The Oilers had a fantastic 2005-2006 regular season. Don’t let anyone try to convince you otherwise. 😉
  • Between 1996 and 2006, the Oilers made the playoffs seven times out of nine seasons. That’s nine tight playoff races, while playing in the toughest division in the NHL. More on this “Golden Era” here.
  • After Pronger left, a bulk of the minutes went to a 20 year old Ladislav Smid and a 23 year old Matt Greene. A big reason why they may have had to play in the NHL was because the Oilers didn’t even have their own AHL affiliate in 2006-2007.
  • The team did smarten up and partner with the Springfield Falcons in 2007. But nothing worth mentioning came out of the Falcons era, which ended in 2010. The Oilers went on to partner with Oklahoma City, which they’ve relied on to produce some notable players like Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin, Mark Arcobello and Anton Lander, as well as coach Todd Nelson.
  • I mentioned that I wanted to see Marincin and Klefbom spend just a little more time in the minors before taking on full time gigs with the Oilers. I’m a fan of both of these guys, but there’s a lot of benefits to developing at ages 21 or 23 in the minors. Plus, the Oilers are going to hang way too much responsibility on these guys, which will likely stifle their development. If for whatever reason the club elects to keep these guys in the NHL, there has got to be a huge push to land a couple of defensemen this summer who are in their prime (300+ NHL games, aged 26-29).
  • Regarding Smid’s decline as an Oiler, I highly recommend checking out this piece by Jonathan Willis. I was a fan of the guy, but it was clear that Smid struggled without Jeff Petry as his partner. Both Smid and Matt Greene were guys who I thought would’ve been reliable defenders had they been handled properly at an early age.

A big thank you to Al for having me on his show. I’ve been a long time listener and reader of his work…definitely one of the best guys covering the game.

Pre and Post Pronger

/ sunilagni / 2 Comments
Chris Pronger

Chris Pronger

A little while back, I put together a piece on the Oilers 2005-2006 regular season. Even though they finished 8th that year, they played some excellent hockey. If not for some weak goaltending during the regular season, they would’ve finished much higher and the playoff run should not have come as a surprise. The LA Kings of 2012 were very similar, in that they barely made the playoffs, but had some excellent underlying numbers. Of course, they went on to win the cup, something the Oilers can only dream about at this point, but I digress.

The Oilers missed the playoffs the season before Pronger arrived, and had been a  bubble team in the years prior. And of course after Pronger left, poof, the team went in the tank and haven’t made the playoffs since. So it’s easy to argue that Pronger was the sole reason why the club had such a fantastic regular season in 2005/2006 and have been miserable since his departure.

But a couple of things get overlooked in this narrative:

  1. The team was well built and played some decent hockey before Pronger showed up and,
  2. The Oilers have suffered after Pronger’s departure because they refused to replace his minutes with experienced players.

Since possession stats like Corsi and Fenwick are unavailable prior to 2005, I’ve relied solely on the traditional team level stats like shots and special team performance, team points percentages and shot differentials (NHL.com, Hockey Reference, Sporting Charts).

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Shots For

2,256 (16th)

 2,293 (19th) 2,332 (15th) 2,442 (18th) 2,193 (30th) 2,156 (28th)
Shots Against 2,120 (8th) 2,248 (9th) 2,175 (11th) 2,095 (1st) 2,439 (17th) 2,573 (25th)
Shot differential 136 (12th) 45 (17th) 157 (11th) 347 (3rd) -246 (24th) -417 (28th)
GF/GA ratio 5×5 1.18 (9th) 1.04 (12th) 1.22 (9th) 0.90 (23rd) 0.77 (26th) 0.86 (27th)
Save % 0.914 (4th) 0.898 (25th) 0.904 (22nd) 0.885 (30th) 0.900 (17th) 0.904 (19th)
Points % 0.561 (15th) 0.561 (14th) 0.543 (17th) 0.579 (14th) 0.433 (25th) 0.573 (19th)
Powerplay 15.3 (15th) 14.5% (19th) 13.0% (29th) 18.1 (14th) 14.2 (27th) 16.6 (21st)
Penalty Kill 85.6 (12th) 82.6 (18th) 81.0% (27th) 84.1 (8th) 84.6 (8th) 84.7 (5th)
Save % 0.914 (4th) 0.898 (25th) 0.904 (22nd) 0.885 (30th) 0.900 (17th) 0.904 (19th)

It’s worth re-stating that there’s a good correlation between shot differentials and team success. Of the top 10 teams in terms of shot differentials this season, nine are playoff bound. Of course you do get the odd anomaly, but there’s a good chance of success if your club is getting a good percentage of the shots on goal. Here we can see the Oilers were good at preventing shots on goal, which translated into respectable shot differentials. Since 2006, however, they’ve absolutely bled shots, typically one of the worst in shot differentials, and have become a  regular draft lottery team.

From 2000 to 2006, the Oilers were in a highly competitive division. Even though they missed the playoffs in a few of those years, they were a win or two away from getting in. The average points percentage in the Northwest division was always about 0.550, which no other division could boast. Worth noting that even before Pronger arrived, the team was getting over 56% of the points, which is typically the playoff cutoff.

In terms of the actual roster, the Oilers were doing a very nice job drafting and developing players leading up to 2005/2006. Guys like Shawn Horcoff, Jarret Stoll and Mike Comrie were at centre, while Hemsky and Smyth were producing at an excellent pace. The blue line had experienced players like Jason Smith, Steve Staios, Igor Ulanov and Janne Ninimaa to name a few. Brewer was the only (!) young guy in the mix and did get a lion share of the ice time. But at least he had some veteran experience to support him.

Here’s the Oilers top six defencemen (based on ice time) between 2001 and 2007 (Source: Hockey Abstract):

2001-02   2002-03   2003-04
Player TOI Age Player TOI Age Player TOI Age
Niinimaa 2,108 26 Brewer 1,994 23 Brewer 1,899 24
Brewer 1,938 22 Staios 1,694 29 Staios 1,890 30
Smith 1,554 28 Smith 1,480 29 Smith 1,452 30
Staios 1,320 28 Ferguson 959 30 Cross 1,308 33
Ferguson 683 29 Semenov 906 21 Bergeron 953 23
Butenschon 135 25 Haakana 103 29 Ulanov 833 34
2005-06   2006-07   2007-08
Player TOI Age Player TOI Age Player TOI Age
Pronger 2,239 31 Smith 1,733 33 Gilbert 1,820 25
Staios 1,712 32 Smid 1,481 20 Staios 1,806 34
Bergeron 1,592 25 Greene 1,373 23 Pitkanen 1,520 24
Smith 1,493 32 Staios 1,240 33 Grebeshkov 1,198 24
Spacek 763 31 Tjarnqvist 840 30 Smid 1,161 21
Ulanov 609 36 Hejda 795 28 Greene 768 24

Strange how the team relied on experienced players leading up to Pronger, but when he left, they decided to hand over the 2nd and 3rd most ice time to a couple of young kids. You can be sure that because young Smid was part of the package from Anaheim, management wanted to showcase their prospect to appease fans.

Make no mistake, CFP was an elite player during his time with the Oilers and he had a huge impact on the teams overall success. But you can’t overlook the fact that the Oilers had assembled a pretty decent NHL roster through the draft and trades leading up to his arrival. It was obviously difficult to replace Pronger after he was traded, but the Oilers made little to no effort in assembling a defensive unit and appear to have forgotten how to assemble an NHL roster.

Recommended Links

How to best build a Stanley Cup calibre blueline – Cult of Hockey

Talking analytics and advanced stats on Inside Sports

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment

Had the opportunity to be a guest on Inside Sports last night. Host Reid Wilkins invited me on to discuss analytics and the enhanced stats that have been released by the NHL.

You can hear the full interview here (starts at 2:30):

Couple notes I want to add:

  • You can access the enhanced stats on NHL.com. Keep in mind, this is the first phase of the NHL’s stats initiative. We can expect some data visualization tools and player tracking in the near future. [NHL.com]
  • There are tons of good articles that provide an introduction to analytics and advanced stats. This one from Sports Illustrated gives an excellent primer on Corsi, Fenwick, PDO and QualComp.
  • The best website for advanced stats is War on Ice. Has everything you need, excellent functionality (i.e., filters), easy to use, and has an excellent glossary. HockeyStats.ca is also pretty solid, as well as Nice Time on Ice. New data visualization websites are popping up every week, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.
  • A few of the original blogs/websites that pushed the growth of analytics were Behind the Net, Irreverent Oiler Fans, Objective NHL and mc79hockey.com. A couple of those sites have been taken down as they’ve been hired by NHL clubs.
  • Reid and I briefly touched on Taylor Hall and how his possession numbers align with his boxcar stats. Ryan Batty of the Copper and Blue had an excellent piece from last season that covered this: Taylor Hall – Points vs Corsi.
  • We also discussed shot quality, which I would argue is good to know, but doesn’t predict future outcomes as well as Corsi/Fenwick. This piece by Eric Tulsky at NHL Numbers explains the correlation differences.  Nick Mercadante of Blue Shirt Banter also has a solid post on this.
  • If you’re wondering why Boyd Gordon is the Oilers MVP, please read this excellent piece: Boyd Gordon – Superhero.
  • Shawn Horcoff was accustomed to doing a lot of the heavy lifting as an Oiler. Prime example of a solid two-way centerman who went up against the best players in the NHL and started often in the defensive zone.
  • My research at the University of Alberta focused on  hockey fans and their online collaboration to develop new information and knowledge pertaining to the game. You can read more about it here, or access the full research paper. Also recommend reading my post Finding the SuperFan.
  • Michael Parkatti and I put together a public lecture at the U of A last year on hockey analytics. You can watch the full session on Livestream.
  • I touched on a few of the reasons why analytics was significant and how fans are really the drivers of new information and knowledge. More of my thoughts can be found here: Importance of Hockey Analytics II.

Thanks to Reid for having me on his show. Definitely a unique experience!

Looking Back at the Oilers’ 2005-2006 Season

/ sunilagni / 4 Comments

img003Being a terrible hockey team for almost a decade impacts a lot of things. The low morale of fans, the constant trade rumors and bogus narratives, and the negative perception of management and owners are all tied to loser franchises. These are things that can easily be reversed if the team starts winning, but unfortunately, that isn’t happening any time soon.

And as the playoff drought continues for the Oilers, the history of a franchise also starts to get diminished. There’s this notion that the Oilers have been bad far past the 2006 cup run. The narrative makes sense: they were the 8th seeded team that barely made the playoffs in 2006 and beat out Detroit (1st), San Jose (5th) and Anaheim (6th) to get to game seven of the finals. Following the loss to the Hurricanes, the team went on to missing the playoffs nine straight years. Add it all up, and you could safely assume that the 2006 run was a complete fluke.

What gets overshadowed by the Oilers remarkable playoff run in 2006 is their regular season performance. While it’s true that the team finished 8th and clinched a playoff berth in the last week of the season, there are some underlying numbers worth highlighting. Here’s their overall record

GP W L OT PTS PTS% VS WEST VS CEN VS NW VS PAC
82 41 28 13 95 0.574 38-25-9 10-6-4 15-15-2 13-4-3

That Northwest division was quite the killer that season. All five teams had points percentages above 0.500. No other division was as this tight. The Oilers needed 95 points to qualify for the playoffs and  were only four points back of 5th place San Jose. The club ranked 14th on the powerplay (18.1%) and 8th on the penalty kill (84.1).

Here’s a high level snap shot of the Oilers’ advanced stats from the 2005-2006 regular season. I took into account all situations and found a comparative team from the 2013-2014 season based on rank. Regular season shot attempt data is worth reviewing, as it’s been a pretty good predictor of championships.

All Situations

 Corsi For % of total Fenwick % of total Shot Differentials Total Percentage of shots On ice shooting percentage On ice save percentage PDO Off Zone Starts

Rating

 52.2 53.7 347 53.8 10.2 88.4 98.6 53.1

Ranking

 6th 3rd 3rd 3rd 17th 30th 26th

6th
2013-2014 Comparison St. Louis Chicago LA LA Montreal NYI Calgary

Boston

 Source: War on Ice

The Oilers put together some fantastic numbers over a full season, and compare well to some of the more recent top teams. The Oilers were a strong possession team over 82 games and had the sixth highest offensive zone starts. The team allowed the fewest shots in the league, but had the worst on-ice save percentage. That of course impacted the PDO, which was one of the lowest in the league. Worth noting that the Avalanche, who finished 7th overall, had the second highest on-ice shooting percentage (11.4%), while the 6th seeded Ducks combined their excellent possession stats with the sixth highest on-ice save percentage (90.9%).

Chris Pronger was instrumental in the team’s possession numbers, but the Oilers had a very well constructed roster that started with talent down the middle. They had the second best team-faceoff percentage that season (53.4%), with Horcoff and Stoll both finishing with 65+ points. The wingers took close to half of the total shots, with Smyth and Hemsky finishing with 66 and 77 points respectively. And of the top six defencemen based on total ice time, only one was under 30. Not bad roster management. Source: Hockey Reference

The weakness of the Oilers that year was definitely in goal as the club struggled all season to get consistent performances. The goaltending was pitiful with no clear cut starter all season. Only two shutouts registered in 2005-2006, while the Flames got 10 from their keepers. It was finally at the deadline that Lowe acquired Roloson from Minnesota for a first round pick and sent away Morrison (waivers) and Conklin (AHL).

Player

Games

 Minutes Wins Losses T/O SV% GAA

SO
Jussi Markkanen

37

 2016 15 12 6 0.880 3.12

0
Mike Morrison

21

 892 10 4 2 0.884 2.83

0
Dwayne Roloson

19

 1163 8 7 4 0.905 2.42

1
Ty Conklin

18

 922 8 5 1 0.880 2.8

1

 Source: Hockey Reference

Piecing together these stats is really just a way to get a fair assessment of what the team actually was ten years ago. The narratives grow and evolve over time depending on the context, so it’s critical to ground our understanding of the game in some degree of quantitative evidence. A blend of the advanced stats derived from analytics with the standard boxcar numbers of the players give a much better assessment of the team’s regular season success.

If there are additional stats or stories from that season worth mentioning, let me know.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Shot differentials under Nelson; Keeping Fasth; Pre-Pronger Era

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Anaheim Ducks v Edmonton OilersWith Nelson behind the bench, the overall perception of the Oilers has improved as they’ve started winning games. Even though Nelson has only won three in regulation since Eakins was fired, there’s a general sense of optimism that the team just might start turning it around. Unfortunately, they’ve been getting outshot quite regularly, which never ends well for a club.

2014-15 Oilers Shot Differentials (5on5)
Coach Games % of shots shot differentials
Eakins 31 49.4% -18
MacT/Nelson 5 45.1% -23
Nelson 16 45.0% -71

The team is getting the wins, but it shouldn’t hide the fact that the club is still weak in a number of areas. I’ve liked Derek Roy’s play and hope the Oilers can either sign him or at least be inspired to seek out a legit NHL centerman. The defence is still in need of an NHL player or three. And the goaltending, which hasn’t been awful as of late, will likely get revamped for the 2015 season.

Glad to see Fasth getting some starts.  He’s looked pretty good, especially the other night against Pittsburgh when the rest of the team played terribly for the majority of the game. His 5-on-5 save percentage (adjusted) has been respectable  in 2015. Whether that’s because of the head coaching change or the new goaltender coach is anyone’s guess. Thought I’d break it out by coach and goalie coach.

Adjusted Save% (5on5)
Head Coach Scrivens Fasth
Eakins 90.28 88.97
MacT/Nelson 89.55 66.96
Nelson 90.68 93.25
Adjusted Save% (5on5)
Goalie Coach Scrivens Fasth
Chabot 90.03 86.97
Schwartz 90.59 91.00

Source: War on Ice

The team is leaking shots at an alarming rate, so Fasth will have to continue standing on his head to bail out his team. He should be the guy the team goes forward with, but will likely be shipped for a draft pick at the trade deadline. It’s also encouraging to hear the Oilers are pursuing goaltender Matt O’Connor, who has played extremely well at the college level. Just wish we had, you know, developed our own goalie.

Definitely hoping the Oilers can beat the Leafs in Toronto on HNIC. Not because I dislike the Leafs, who are actually fun to watch with guys like Kessel and Kadri on their roster. But because of the positive attention the Oilers will get in the biggest media market. Oilers win and they’ll receive lots of praise for winning under the new coach and the prospects coming down the pipe (with lots of links to Nurse’s performance at the World Juniors). The Leafs on the other hand will receive negative coverage for not rebuilding soon enough like the Oilers (hah!) and point to the tough decisions Shanhan and company will have to make at the deadline. Fluff pieces are nice once in a while.

Edmonton Oilers (1990-2014)

Edmonton Oilers (1990-2014)

I’ve been looking back at some of the success the Oilers had before this nine year drought. One thing that stands out is how well the teams were built even before the 2005-2006 season, and how good they were at generating shots. People can quip that the 2006 run was a fluke or that it was all Pronger. Their regular season was outstanding from start to finish. Had the goaltending been stronger before Roloson showed up at the deadline, they would’ve finished much higher than 8th. But the few seasons before the lockout, the team was generating shots and holding their own against some of the best teams in the league. They missed the playoffs, sure, but the team was getting some very nice production from all areas of the roster. No idea if it was the ownership change, or the management structure, but something altered the way this team evaluates professional and amateur players. The Oilers made some excellent trades in the early aughties, but haven’t been able to replicate that success under Katz. Here’s hoping the promotion of Bob Green can make an impact.

If you haven’t checked it out yet, be sure to listen or read Jason Gregor’s interview with Ryan Smyth. Smyth’s personality came through really well on the radio making the whole interview exceptional. He’s not the most polished guy when he talks about the game, but you can tell from his interview why he was revered in Edmonton. The guy had a tremendous career and really connected well with the community. Think it’s only a matter of time before someone hires him for a player personnel manager role.

Recommended Links

Are the Barons Developing Enough NHL Talent – Lowetide

You can’t trust *some of* the people who cover the Edmonton Oilers – Oilersnation

It’s Been Nine Years – Copper and Blue

Trade Talk: Save the damn puck edition – The Oilers Rig