Edmonton Oilers

Talking Oilers, player development and defence rosters on Lowdown with Lowetide

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Mr. Allan Mitchell (aka. Lowetide) invited me as a guest to his show this morning to talk Oilers and specifically the defensive rosters before and after Pronger. We talked about a recent article I wrote (Pre and Post Pronger) and dug a little deeper into the Oilers current method of developing defenseman. The full radio interview is here, starting around the seven and a half minute mark (suggest reading the above article first):

A couple of notes I wanted to add:

  • The Oilers had a fantastic 2005-2006 regular season. Don’t let anyone try to convince you otherwise. 😉
  • Between 1996 and 2006, the Oilers made the playoffs seven times out of nine seasons. That’s nine tight playoff races, while playing in the toughest division in the NHL. More on this “Golden Era” here.
  • After Pronger left, a bulk of the minutes went to a 20 year old Ladislav Smid and a 23 year old Matt Greene. A big reason why they may have had to play in the NHL was because the Oilers didn’t even have their own AHL affiliate in 2006-2007.
  • The team did smarten up and partner with the Springfield Falcons in 2007. But nothing worth mentioning came out of the Falcons era, which ended in 2010. The Oilers went on to partner with Oklahoma City, which they’ve relied on to produce some notable players like Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin, Mark Arcobello and Anton Lander, as well as coach Todd Nelson.
  • I mentioned that I wanted to see Marincin and Klefbom spend just a little more time in the minors before taking on full time gigs with the Oilers. I’m a fan of both of these guys, but there’s a lot of benefits to developing at ages 21 or 23 in the minors. Plus, the Oilers are going to hang way too much responsibility on these guys, which will likely stifle their development. If for whatever reason the club elects to keep these guys in the NHL, there has got to be a huge push to land a couple of defensemen this summer who are in their prime (300+ NHL games, aged 26-29).
  • Regarding Smid’s decline as an Oiler, I highly recommend checking out this piece by Jonathan Willis. I was a fan of the guy, but it was clear that Smid struggled without Jeff Petry as his partner. Both Smid and Matt Greene were guys who I thought would’ve been reliable defenders had they been handled properly at an early age.

A big thank you to Al for having me on his show. I’ve been a long time listener and reader of his work…definitely one of the best guys covering the game.

Pre and Post Pronger

/ sunilagni / 2 Comments
Chris Pronger

Chris Pronger

A little while back, I put together a piece on the Oilers 2005-2006 regular season. Even though they finished 8th that year, they played some excellent hockey. If not for some weak goaltending during the regular season, they would’ve finished much higher and the playoff run should not have come as a surprise. The LA Kings of 2012 were very similar, in that they barely made the playoffs, but had some excellent underlying numbers. Of course, they went on to win the cup, something the Oilers can only dream about at this point, but I digress.

The Oilers missed the playoffs the season before Pronger arrived, and had been a  bubble team in the years prior. And of course after Pronger left, poof, the team went in the tank and haven’t made the playoffs since. So it’s easy to argue that Pronger was the sole reason why the club had such a fantastic regular season in 2005/2006 and have been miserable since his departure.

But a couple of things get overlooked in this narrative:

  1. The team was well built and played some decent hockey before Pronger showed up and,
  2. The Oilers have suffered after Pronger’s departure because they refused to replace his minutes with experienced players.

Since possession stats like Corsi and Fenwick are unavailable prior to 2005, I’ve relied solely on the traditional team level stats like shots and special team performance, team points percentages and shot differentials (NHL.com, Hockey Reference, Sporting Charts).

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Shots For

2,256 (16th)

 2,293 (19th) 2,332 (15th) 2,442 (18th) 2,193 (30th) 2,156 (28th)
Shots Against 2,120 (8th) 2,248 (9th) 2,175 (11th) 2,095 (1st) 2,439 (17th) 2,573 (25th)
Shot differential 136 (12th) 45 (17th) 157 (11th) 347 (3rd) -246 (24th) -417 (28th)
GF/GA ratio 5×5 1.18 (9th) 1.04 (12th) 1.22 (9th) 0.90 (23rd) 0.77 (26th) 0.86 (27th)
Save % 0.914 (4th) 0.898 (25th) 0.904 (22nd) 0.885 (30th) 0.900 (17th) 0.904 (19th)
Points % 0.561 (15th) 0.561 (14th) 0.543 (17th) 0.579 (14th) 0.433 (25th) 0.573 (19th)
Powerplay 15.3 (15th) 14.5% (19th) 13.0% (29th) 18.1 (14th) 14.2 (27th) 16.6 (21st)
Penalty Kill 85.6 (12th) 82.6 (18th) 81.0% (27th) 84.1 (8th) 84.6 (8th) 84.7 (5th)
Save % 0.914 (4th) 0.898 (25th) 0.904 (22nd) 0.885 (30th) 0.900 (17th) 0.904 (19th)

It’s worth re-stating that there’s a good correlation between shot differentials and team success. Of the top 10 teams in terms of shot differentials this season, nine are playoff bound. Of course you do get the odd anomaly, but there’s a good chance of success if your club is getting a good percentage of the shots on goal. Here we can see the Oilers were good at preventing shots on goal, which translated into respectable shot differentials. Since 2006, however, they’ve absolutely bled shots, typically one of the worst in shot differentials, and have become a  regular draft lottery team.

From 2000 to 2006, the Oilers were in a highly competitive division. Even though they missed the playoffs in a few of those years, they were a win or two away from getting in. The average points percentage in the Northwest division was always about 0.550, which no other division could boast. Worth noting that even before Pronger arrived, the team was getting over 56% of the points, which is typically the playoff cutoff.

In terms of the actual roster, the Oilers were doing a very nice job drafting and developing players leading up to 2005/2006. Guys like Shawn Horcoff, Jarret Stoll and Mike Comrie were at centre, while Hemsky and Smyth were producing at an excellent pace. The blue line had experienced players like Jason Smith, Steve Staios, Igor Ulanov and Janne Ninimaa to name a few. Brewer was the only (!) young guy in the mix and did get a lion share of the ice time. But at least he had some veteran experience to support him.

Here’s the Oilers top six defencemen (based on ice time) between 2001 and 2007 (Source: Hockey Abstract):

2001-02   2002-03   2003-04
Player TOI Age Player TOI Age Player TOI Age
Niinimaa 2,108 26 Brewer 1,994 23 Brewer 1,899 24
Brewer 1,938 22 Staios 1,694 29 Staios 1,890 30
Smith 1,554 28 Smith 1,480 29 Smith 1,452 30
Staios 1,320 28 Ferguson 959 30 Cross 1,308 33
Ferguson 683 29 Semenov 906 21 Bergeron 953 23
Butenschon 135 25 Haakana 103 29 Ulanov 833 34
2005-06   2006-07   2007-08
Player TOI Age Player TOI Age Player TOI Age
Pronger 2,239 31 Smith 1,733 33 Gilbert 1,820 25
Staios 1,712 32 Smid 1,481 20 Staios 1,806 34
Bergeron 1,592 25 Greene 1,373 23 Pitkanen 1,520 24
Smith 1,493 32 Staios 1,240 33 Grebeshkov 1,198 24
Spacek 763 31 Tjarnqvist 840 30 Smid 1,161 21
Ulanov 609 36 Hejda 795 28 Greene 768 24

Strange how the team relied on experienced players leading up to Pronger, but when he left, they decided to hand over the 2nd and 3rd most ice time to a couple of young kids. You can be sure that because young Smid was part of the package from Anaheim, management wanted to showcase their prospect to appease fans.

Make no mistake, CFP was an elite player during his time with the Oilers and he had a huge impact on the teams overall success. But you can’t overlook the fact that the Oilers had assembled a pretty decent NHL roster through the draft and trades leading up to his arrival. It was obviously difficult to replace Pronger after he was traded, but the Oilers made little to no effort in assembling a defensive unit and appear to have forgotten how to assemble an NHL roster.

Recommended Links

How to best build a Stanley Cup calibre blueline – Cult of Hockey

Talking analytics and advanced stats on Inside Sports

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment

Had the opportunity to be a guest on Inside Sports last night. Host Reid Wilkins invited me on to discuss analytics and the enhanced stats that have been released by the NHL.

You can hear the full interview here (starts at 2:30):

Couple notes I want to add:

  • You can access the enhanced stats on NHL.com. Keep in mind, this is the first phase of the NHL’s stats initiative. We can expect some data visualization tools and player tracking in the near future. [NHL.com]
  • There are tons of good articles that provide an introduction to analytics and advanced stats. This one from Sports Illustrated gives an excellent primer on Corsi, Fenwick, PDO and QualComp.
  • The best website for advanced stats is War on Ice. Has everything you need, excellent functionality (i.e., filters), easy to use, and has an excellent glossary. HockeyStats.ca is also pretty solid, as well as Nice Time on Ice. New data visualization websites are popping up every week, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.
  • A few of the original blogs/websites that pushed the growth of analytics were Behind the Net, Irreverent Oiler Fans, Objective NHL and mc79hockey.com. A couple of those sites have been taken down as they’ve been hired by NHL clubs.
  • Reid and I briefly touched on Taylor Hall and how his possession numbers align with his boxcar stats. Ryan Batty of the Copper and Blue had an excellent piece from last season that covered this: Taylor Hall – Points vs Corsi.
  • We also discussed shot quality, which I would argue is good to know, but doesn’t predict future outcomes as well as Corsi/Fenwick. This piece by Eric Tulsky at NHL Numbers explains the correlation differences.  Nick Mercadante of Blue Shirt Banter also has a solid post on this.
  • If you’re wondering why Boyd Gordon is the Oilers MVP, please read this excellent piece: Boyd Gordon – Superhero.
  • Shawn Horcoff was accustomed to doing a lot of the heavy lifting as an Oiler. Prime example of a solid two-way centerman who went up against the best players in the NHL and started often in the defensive zone.
  • My research at the University of Alberta focused on  hockey fans and their online collaboration to develop new information and knowledge pertaining to the game. You can read more about it here, or access the full research paper. Also recommend reading my post Finding the SuperFan.
  • Michael Parkatti and I put together a public lecture at the U of A last year on hockey analytics. You can watch the full session on Livestream.
  • I touched on a few of the reasons why analytics was significant and how fans are really the drivers of new information and knowledge. More of my thoughts can be found here: Importance of Hockey Analytics II.

Thanks to Reid for having me on his show. Definitely a unique experience!

Looking Back at the Oilers’ 2005-2006 Season

/ sunilagni / 4 Comments

img003Being a terrible hockey team for almost a decade impacts a lot of things. The low morale of fans, the constant trade rumors and bogus narratives, and the negative perception of management and owners are all tied to loser franchises. These are things that can easily be reversed if the team starts winning, but unfortunately, that isn’t happening any time soon.

And as the playoff drought continues for the Oilers, the history of a franchise also starts to get diminished. There’s this notion that the Oilers have been bad far past the 2006 cup run. The narrative makes sense: they were the 8th seeded team that barely made the playoffs in 2006 and beat out Detroit (1st), San Jose (5th) and Anaheim (6th) to get to game seven of the finals. Following the loss to the Hurricanes, the team went on to missing the playoffs nine straight years. Add it all up, and you could safely assume that the 2006 run was a complete fluke.

What gets overshadowed by the Oilers remarkable playoff run in 2006 is their regular season performance. While it’s true that the team finished 8th and clinched a playoff berth in the last week of the season, there are some underlying numbers worth highlighting. Here’s their overall record

GP W L OT PTS PTS% VS WEST VS CEN VS NW VS PAC
82 41 28 13 95 0.574 38-25-9 10-6-4 15-15-2 13-4-3

That Northwest division was quite the killer that season. All five teams had points percentages above 0.500. No other division was as this tight. The Oilers needed 95 points to qualify for the playoffs and  were only four points back of 5th place San Jose. The club ranked 14th on the powerplay (18.1%) and 8th on the penalty kill (84.1).

Here’s a high level snap shot of the Oilers’ advanced stats from the 2005-2006 regular season. I took into account all situations and found a comparative team from the 2013-2014 season based on rank. Regular season shot attempt data is worth reviewing, as it’s been a pretty good predictor of championships.

All Situations

 Corsi For % of total Fenwick % of total Shot Differentials Total Percentage of shots On ice shooting percentage On ice save percentage PDO Off Zone Starts

Rating

 52.2 53.7 347 53.8 10.2 88.4 98.6 53.1

Ranking

 6th 3rd 3rd 3rd 17th 30th 26th

6th
2013-2014 Comparison St. Louis Chicago LA LA Montreal NYI Calgary

Boston

 Source: War on Ice

The Oilers put together some fantastic numbers over a full season, and compare well to some of the more recent top teams. The Oilers were a strong possession team over 82 games and had the sixth highest offensive zone starts. The team allowed the fewest shots in the league, but had the worst on-ice save percentage. That of course impacted the PDO, which was one of the lowest in the league. Worth noting that the Avalanche, who finished 7th overall, had the second highest on-ice shooting percentage (11.4%), while the 6th seeded Ducks combined their excellent possession stats with the sixth highest on-ice save percentage (90.9%).

Chris Pronger was instrumental in the team’s possession numbers, but the Oilers had a very well constructed roster that started with talent down the middle. They had the second best team-faceoff percentage that season (53.4%), with Horcoff and Stoll both finishing with 65+ points. The wingers took close to half of the total shots, with Smyth and Hemsky finishing with 66 and 77 points respectively. And of the top six defencemen based on total ice time, only one was under 30. Not bad roster management. Source: Hockey Reference

The weakness of the Oilers that year was definitely in goal as the club struggled all season to get consistent performances. The goaltending was pitiful with no clear cut starter all season. Only two shutouts registered in 2005-2006, while the Flames got 10 from their keepers. It was finally at the deadline that Lowe acquired Roloson from Minnesota for a first round pick and sent away Morrison (waivers) and Conklin (AHL).

Player

Games

 Minutes Wins Losses T/O SV% GAA

SO
Jussi Markkanen

37

 2016 15 12 6 0.880 3.12

0
Mike Morrison

21

 892 10 4 2 0.884 2.83

0
Dwayne Roloson

19

 1163 8 7 4 0.905 2.42

1
Ty Conklin

18

 922 8 5 1 0.880 2.8

1

 Source: Hockey Reference

Piecing together these stats is really just a way to get a fair assessment of what the team actually was ten years ago. The narratives grow and evolve over time depending on the context, so it’s critical to ground our understanding of the game in some degree of quantitative evidence. A blend of the advanced stats derived from analytics with the standard boxcar numbers of the players give a much better assessment of the team’s regular season success.

If there are additional stats or stories from that season worth mentioning, let me know.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Shot differentials under Nelson; Keeping Fasth; Pre-Pronger Era

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Anaheim Ducks v Edmonton OilersWith Nelson behind the bench, the overall perception of the Oilers has improved as they’ve started winning games. Even though Nelson has only won three in regulation since Eakins was fired, there’s a general sense of optimism that the team just might start turning it around. Unfortunately, they’ve been getting outshot quite regularly, which never ends well for a club.

2014-15 Oilers Shot Differentials (5on5)
Coach Games % of shots shot differentials
Eakins 31 49.4% -18
MacT/Nelson 5 45.1% -23
Nelson 16 45.0% -71

The team is getting the wins, but it shouldn’t hide the fact that the club is still weak in a number of areas. I’ve liked Derek Roy’s play and hope the Oilers can either sign him or at least be inspired to seek out a legit NHL centerman. The defence is still in need of an NHL player or three. And the goaltending, which hasn’t been awful as of late, will likely get revamped for the 2015 season.

Glad to see Fasth getting some starts.  He’s looked pretty good, especially the other night against Pittsburgh when the rest of the team played terribly for the majority of the game. His 5-on-5 save percentage (adjusted) has been respectable  in 2015. Whether that’s because of the head coaching change or the new goaltender coach is anyone’s guess. Thought I’d break it out by coach and goalie coach.

Adjusted Save% (5on5)
Head Coach Scrivens Fasth
Eakins 90.28 88.97
MacT/Nelson 89.55 66.96
Nelson 90.68 93.25
Adjusted Save% (5on5)
Goalie Coach Scrivens Fasth
Chabot 90.03 86.97
Schwartz 90.59 91.00

Source: War on Ice

The team is leaking shots at an alarming rate, so Fasth will have to continue standing on his head to bail out his team. He should be the guy the team goes forward with, but will likely be shipped for a draft pick at the trade deadline. It’s also encouraging to hear the Oilers are pursuing goaltender Matt O’Connor, who has played extremely well at the college level. Just wish we had, you know, developed our own goalie.

Definitely hoping the Oilers can beat the Leafs in Toronto on HNIC. Not because I dislike the Leafs, who are actually fun to watch with guys like Kessel and Kadri on their roster. But because of the positive attention the Oilers will get in the biggest media market. Oilers win and they’ll receive lots of praise for winning under the new coach and the prospects coming down the pipe (with lots of links to Nurse’s performance at the World Juniors). The Leafs on the other hand will receive negative coverage for not rebuilding soon enough like the Oilers (hah!) and point to the tough decisions Shanhan and company will have to make at the deadline. Fluff pieces are nice once in a while.

Edmonton Oilers (1990-2014)

Edmonton Oilers (1990-2014)

I’ve been looking back at some of the success the Oilers had before this nine year drought. One thing that stands out is how well the teams were built even before the 2005-2006 season, and how good they were at generating shots. People can quip that the 2006 run was a fluke or that it was all Pronger. Their regular season was outstanding from start to finish. Had the goaltending been stronger before Roloson showed up at the deadline, they would’ve finished much higher than 8th. But the few seasons before the lockout, the team was generating shots and holding their own against some of the best teams in the league. They missed the playoffs, sure, but the team was getting some very nice production from all areas of the roster. No idea if it was the ownership change, or the management structure, but something altered the way this team evaluates professional and amateur players. The Oilers made some excellent trades in the early aughties, but haven’t been able to replicate that success under Katz. Here’s hoping the promotion of Bob Green can make an impact.

If you haven’t checked it out yet, be sure to listen or read Jason Gregor’s interview with Ryan Smyth. Smyth’s personality came through really well on the radio making the whole interview exceptional. He’s not the most polished guy when he talks about the game, but you can tell from his interview why he was revered in Edmonton. The guy had a tremendous career and really connected well with the community. Think it’s only a matter of time before someone hires him for a player personnel manager role.

Recommended Links

Are the Barons Developing Enough NHL Talent – Lowetide

You can’t trust *some of* the people who cover the Edmonton Oilers – Oilersnation

It’s Been Nine Years – Copper and Blue

Trade Talk: Save the damn puck edition – The Oilers Rig

Checking in on the Oilogosphere

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

One thing I’ve enjoyed writing about on this blog is the link between hockey fans and communication technology. It was the basis for my research project in school, and it’s been a while since I really paid attention to the current Oilogosphere landscape. So reading Wanye’s latest post on OilersNation conjured up a lot of ideas. Here goes:

  • While it’s true that many blogs have gone by the wayside, the majority of the content that these websites published is still available. Ever wondered how bad it was in 2008? There’s some great articles that summed up the team, the management and of course the general consensus of fans (man, we were an optimistic bunch back then). Even though these blogs aren’t active, there’s some excellent archived material that the current crop of bloggers could potentially build off of.
  • Fans have definitely embraced Twitter. It’s a fantastic tool to connect the Oilers fan community and the hockey world at large. It’s a great people connector. Blogs on the other hand, are more of an idea connector that facilitates a tighter, and more fluid discussion. Done right, blogs can still serve as a fantastic tool for information sharing and knowledge development.
  • There’s also a lot more people commenting on blogs than there were in years past. The comment section isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but there are a lot of people who commit a lot of time and energy, the same amount they would have committed on their own blog, to contribute to the overall discussion. Commenting rather than blogging just works better for some.
  • There’s a very clear meritocracy at work in the Oilogosphere. Bloggers are differentiated by the quality of their work rather than their job titles or financial backing. This is a good thing when a community is growing and developing. But eventually the gap between the content produced by top bloggers and the rest increases. This has happened gradually over the past 9-10 years within the Oilogosphere. It can be awfully intimidating now for new bloggers when the Oilers fan community already has a lot of heavy hitters. Many just simply comment or focus their attention elsewhere. I will say that the Oilers fan community in general is very receptive to new or emerging bloggers, so if you have new content or want to build off older stuff, do it now. There’s always something to create or build off of.
  • If you’re interested in making money from blogging, treat it like an actual business venture. It’ll become pretty apparent that the financial rewards are very low. Blogging is about developing new information and sharing ideas. And many of the bloggers that have gone on to do big things were not focused on the money when they started out. They were instead very intrinsically motivated, focused on the quality of their work rather than the potential ad revenue.
  • The value of a press pass has decreased significantly over the past ten years. You can get live press conferences, post game scrums and every single quote in real time and on your phone these days. Giving a blogger a press pass would be nice so they can ask questions directly and possibly enhance their work. But the reason why bloggers have done so well is because they work outside of traditional media rules and standards. Instead they’ve focused less on what player’s say and instead pushed the discussion on things like analytics to focus on what players actually do. The lack of direct information from players has pushed bloggers to analyze the game more creatively, relying on a more collaborative approach to information and knowledge development. They’ve carved out a nice niche in the overall coverage of the Oilers, while those that do have access to players are somewhat floundering in their positions.

Again, if you haven’t read Wanye’s post, it’s here and well worth a read: Oilogosphere Down

Thoughts on the Oilers: Shot differentials, Player development, Perron traded

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

img005The club is sitting at a dismal 9-23-3 record. While most teams are staying competitive, the Oilers are making puzzling decisions on their prospects, sending away NHL players and getting outshot on a regular basis.

And the lower this team goes, it seems the more there is to talk about. Why is the team bad? How did it get this bad? Why does the powerplay struggle? Why can’t the goalies be goalies? The fun part of all of this is being able to go back and see all the things that lead up to this disaster. Remember when Draisaitl was described by MacT as being NHL ready? Or when Perron made those lovely comments about his team after the game against New Jersey?

Couple thoughts.

While it’s true that the Oilers were once offered Corey Perry and a pick for Mike Comrie, it’s difficult to say if he would’ve become the star he is today. Perry was selected in the first round by the Ducks in 2003, but left in juniors for another two seasons and then played around 20 games in the AHL before making the jump to the NHL. The Ducks didn’t rush Perry when he was a prospect and did the same for Ryan Getzlaf. The Oilers on the other hand didn’t even have their own farm team at the time and have developed a brutal reputation for rushing prospects and hampering their development (Gagner, Cogliano, and now Schultz, Yakupov, to name a few). So two things: hindsight is always 20/20 and the Oilers have been awful at drafting and developing players since at least 2003.

What we’re seeing from this Draisaitl situation is some of the flawed mentality of Oilers management when it comes to prospects. If Draisaitl’s rights were with a junior team that had a “winning culture” at the start of the year, there’s a good chance the Oilers would’ve secured the services of a veteran centerman like Derek Roy or Mike Ribeiro. That’s pretty unsettling knowing that the Oilers started the season with holes in their lineup, all because MacTavish didn’t like Prince Albert’s development program. It also makes you think of which players in the past were kept fledgling in the NHL only because their junior team didn’t meet the standards of Oilers management. And down the road, when another prospect makes the team at 18, we’ll have to question if the Oilers actually think the player is ready or if he’s there because the Oilers don’t like his junior or college team. Jujhar Khaira, who the Oilers pulled out of college to play in the WHL, comes to mind.

That Perron trade, wow. Unless that late first round pick the Oilers acquired from Pittsburgh is going to bring in a defenceman at the draft, I don’t see the point. I expected Perron to get dealt only because he had enough value to bring in a decent return (i.e., an NHL player to play defence). I thought Perron was outstanding last year. He produced well, possession numbers were good, and he seemed to be instilling some good habits into the roster. Basically everything you would want from an NHL player. This season has been brutal, no question, but the fact is he’s been extremely unlucky when it comes to finishing his chances. Michael Parkatti ran some magic and found that having this bad of a drop off in production is just unheard of. I’m sure the Penguins are aware of this and will likely see Perron bounce back, especially playing with experienced centermen.

It’s going to be amazing to play with any of those three guys, obviously. I just think the play starts from the middle, from the breakout when the d-men hit the guy in the middle. They’re the one that can bring a lot of speed throughout the neutral zone and then they kick it wide to getting it into the zone, they drive the net. – David Perron, Yahoo! 

I thought that was an interesting comment. Gives you a sense of what he looks for in a centerman and why it’d be important to have more than two NHL centermen on your roster. Perron spent most of his time with Arcobello, who struggled mightily this season and was dealt, and Draisaitl, an excellent prospect who really belongs in the WHL for now. Neither of those two had the speed or ability to drive to the net mentioned by Perron. It’s worth noting, that the Oilers’ analytics team played a key role in acquiring Perron. Here’s hoping they can work their magic again to find another gem for MacTavish.

Nice to see the Oilers collecting points with Todd Nelson behind the bench. But the shot differentials are just awful. In the past five games with Nelson as the head coach, the club has been outshot 169-115 (-54, all situations). That’s barely 40% of the total shots. The team wasn’t getting outshot nearly as bad under Eakins, but I’m sure once Nelson has his tactics established, that shot differential should (hopefully) improve.

Recommended Links

How Green Was My Valley – Lowetide

He Didn’t Want To Be Here – Coppernblue

Did Edmonton Oilers management mess up in not sending Leon Draisaitl back to junior earlier? – Cult of Hockey

Thoughts on the Oilers: Culture, gossip and trade speculation

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

pimg003I’ve never understood the infatuation with having a “winning culture” in hockey, as if it’s something you can just instill in your club. Really, the only way to obtain the elusive “winning culture” is by, you guessed it, winning. Not by dumping players (i.e., Souray, Horcoff, Gilbert, etc), naming captains, replacing photos in the locker room, or coming up with team mottos.

But culture remains one of those topics that people tend to gossip about when a team isn’t performing. It’s a vague, subjective concept, that suddenly becomes the basis for trade rumors and speculation.

Of course, when your team is dead last, you can expect a jump in these kinds of topics like culture. Teams that struggle are discussed more (see Oilers, Edmonton). Fans have opinions, losing teams clearly need lots of help, so the discussion will naturally center around the culture of the team, why the team is bad and how to improve the team.

This leads us to the rumors about Taylor Hall being a problem in the Oilers locker room and how the Oilers might deal him. It’s frustrating to hear about as an Oilers fan, but the majority of us get the whole rumor cycle and how the machine works.

The source of the rumor is, of course, unnamed. Why would Dreger or any insider give that up and risk their relationships and lose out on future material? It’s his job to inform, but we know, or at least should know, that his messaging is influenced by his employer, team managers and of course player agents. These sources have their own interests and agendas that we know nothing about. Instead, we get tidbits here and there through hockey reporters and are left to discuss and spread the information across our networks.

If the Oilers had an interest in dealing Hall, why would they diminish his value by leaking that he might be “uncoachable”? Add to the fact that Hall has been very productive for the club, providing good value for a very reasonable contract, and you can begin to see where the holes are in this rumor.

It’s obvious that whoever leaked this to Dreger is either trying to motivate Hall, who is mired in a slump right now, or is just trying to get other general managers talking and releasing information on who they might be looking to offload in a trade.

One former Oilers GM put it best in 2000:

Glen Sather, general manager of the Edmonton Oilers, recognizes the value of rumours.

“It is part of selling the game,” he says. “I think rumours are good for the game because they create interest.”

“A player reads a rumour in the paper that he is going to be traded, so all of a sudden his game picks up,” he says.

Sather points to Vaclav Prospal of the Ottawa Senators as an example.

“He was brutal until the stories came out that he was going to be traded, and all of a sudden he is playing a lot better.” (National Post, January 2000)

Now of course, there is always the possibility that a  player gets dealt. The Oilers have a lot of holes to fill, and Hall could get you a decent return. I just don’t see how leaking negative information about your player to a reporter would help facilitate any trade process.

Related: Oil City Speculation (2009)

Thoughts on the Oilers – Losing Streak

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

img003Last season doesn’t seem so bad now, eh?

The Oilers have lost 10 straight. The positive trends of the underlying stats had me feeling optimistic about the club. I figured the team would turn it around eventually, but there haven’t been any signs. Had last night’s loss been a one goal game, or if the power play scored at least once, we could at least have something to build off of. Instead, it was a blowout on home ice against a beatable team. And it featured two short handed goals againts (on the same powerplay!) by an ex-player.

Tobias Rieder

When the Oilers dealt Rieder for Kessy, I didn’t really care. It was a prospect swap that sent away skill for size. Thankfully there were some very intelligent people out there who dug deeper and found that this was a terrible deal for the club [Copper and Blue] [Cult of Hockey]. Following last night’s game, it was revealed by Sarah McLellan of Arizona Central that it was Rieder who initiated the trade as he felt that the Oilers had enough forwards similar to himself.

Why would a prospect feel he has no chance to make the club? This team does not have any superstar prospects. What this team does have is the ability to hand out roster spots based on pedigree rather than an actual competition. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rieder felt that as a 4th round pick, he had less of a chance to make it to the big club.

mc79hockey

Something I came across recently were the negative tweets directed at Tyler on Twitter. Many are targeting him as a point of ridicule as he was hired to provide the coaching staff with analytical expertise. With the season down the drain, and the advanced stats under a microscrope, many appear to be directing sarcastic tweets at him rather than the players who, you know, actually play the game.

I’m sure Tyler was prepared for the snarky comments when he took the job. It’s just unfortunate that he’s unable to respond back to people and defend the work that he’s done.

Draft, Develop, and (hopefully) Deploy

One thing that always bothers me is how fast the Oilers push their prospects to the NHL. I’m glad it’s a point of discussion since the club is at it again rushing Leon Draisaitl. There is no harm in letting a player stay in junior or refine their game in the AHL. To this day, I firmly believe the Oilers should’ve given RNH, Yak and Schultz an additional season to develop before making the jump.

And just based on MacTavish’s belief that Schultz could be a Norris trophy winner some day, I looked at the number of junior and minor league games played by Schultz compared with past winners.

Number of games played
Player Juniors College AHL SEL/FIN
Justin Schultz 0 121 34 0
Duncan Keith 37 56 154 0
PK Subban 234 0 77 0
Erik Karlsson 49 0 12 82

Players need time to develop, especially defencemen. Both Keith and Subban were fortunate that their clubs had long-term plans, and got to ease their way into the NHL. Only because of the lockout was Schultz able to play in the AHL, where he finished with 48 points and won the Eddie Shore award for best defenceman. The guy has tremendous upside, no question about it.  He just needed some time in the AHL to workout some of the basics. The Oilers have yet to fully embrace a true model of drafting and developing and until they do, the club will continue to struggle.

Mental Health

One final thought: The current losing streak, combined with the playoff drought has put a real damper on the fan community, especially online. A quick scan of the #oilers hashtag last night during the game found a lot of sarcastic tweets, but many that were about just feeling depressed or down watching the club. It’s understandable. The losing is awful for a fan, and it can be difficult to escape the negativity of others. There’s a lot of negative content about the Oilers right now, and even seeing a headline with “Oilers” in it is typically a downer. In all seriousness, if the team’s performance has you really down, reach out to your personal network and try to unplug from the game. There are also  many resources in the community that are easily accessible and can get you the help you need.

Recommended Links

From Fan to Fat? Vicarious Losing Increases Unhealthy Eating, but Self-Affirmation Is an Effective Remedy – Psychological Science

Many things need to change – Oilersnation

A Golden God – Black Dog Hates Skunks

The Process – Oilers Rig

The Oilers are better than their record and will likely rally the rest of the way – Cult of Hockey

Rieder and Weep – Cult of Hockey

The Losing End – Lowetide

Thoughts on the Oilers: About Saturday Night

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

img003The scene at the end of the Oilers game against the Hawks was one of despair, hopelessness and misery. The camera panned to Eakins as the final buzzer went. He looked at the ice, said something to his assistant and then made his way to the tunnel with the rest of the team. 7-1 loss. At home. On Hockey Night in Canada. At this point, I thought back to last March when the Flames absolutely destroyed the Oilers 8-1 on national television.

CBC then cut to the final minute of the Flames-Devils game, where the Flames were down by one. The crowd in Calgary was buzzing as the home team pulled their goalie, rushed up-ice and, with seconds remaining, tied the game. The building went nuts. And sure enough, the Flames won the game in a shootout.

I had a few thoughts leading up to the game and throughout the beatdown. Twitter became a pretty dark place after that shutout loss to the Devils on Friday night, so I stayed away for the most part.

  • Leading up to Saturday night, the Oilers didn’t stand a chance against the Hawks. But sometimes the Oilers can surprise you. Like when Sam Gagner got 8-points. That was a fun time.
  • Absolutely, the worst part about being an Oilers fan is the rampant and unnecessary speculation that pops up when things are going bad. Trade rumors, coaching changes and “team culture” suddenly become the hot topics.
  • At the start of the year, I predicted that Perron would be the most likely to be dealt. Not because he’s a bad player. But because he’s a veteran forward that can produce consistently. Basically the type of guy that a team would want to acquire and be willing to send a player that the Oilers could use (like a centre!). I thought his comments after the Devils game were fantastic. I just hope he doesn’t get traded for this reason.
  • Eberle has got to be deployed differently. He’s a talented forward, but his defensive capabilities have been exposed for a couple of years now. The club needs to move him away from the other team’s top lines, but he doesn’t seem to have chemistry with anyone else but Hall and RNH. I’m not saying to trade him. Just deploy him better.
  • When Devan Dubnyk struggled with the Oilers last year, MacTavish mentioned that he was given some data that showed that many goalies go through rough patches but tend to get back to their playing level. (This was Tyler Dellow’s work, before he joined the club, which isn’t available anymore unfortunately). In each year before his nightmare season, Dubnyk had a 0.916 SV%, 0.914 SV% and 0.920 SV%. At the quarter way mark of this season, Dubnyk is sitting at a 6-0-1 record, with a 0.926 SV%. I wasn’t a huge fan of the goaltending carousel that landed Scrivens and Fasth. And now it looks like the Oilers’ goalie coach is taking the fall. Bizarre.
  • I really thought the Eakins hiring would’ve gone better. I figured a young coach, with experience in the AHL, would bring some new ideas and tactics to the Oilers. Following his rookie season, he added Craig Ramsay and Rocky Thompson to his coaching staff. He reached out to other professional coaches for help. He brought on Tyler Dellow to provide analytic support. But he has yet to have a complete roster. The last thing this club needs is a new coach. Are they even sure another coach would even want to come here?
  • All MacTavish had to do was fill out the roster, give his coaches some free reign and not put Norris expectations on Justin Schultz. Everything would’ve been just fine.
  • I don’t see MacT making a coaching change. He’s preached the importance of consistency. He’s been in the coaches situation before and knows the benefits of sticking with a coach. It would not surprise me at all if MacT sticks with Eakins until the bitter end.
  • Side note: I had no idea people loved Ralph Kreuger so much. He seemed like a likable guy, but I don’t remember him getting a lot of support during his stint here.
  • It’s pretty obvious since the off-season that the team needs help at centre, on defense and goaltending. This is clearly on the management group, who have yet to give their coaches a complete line up. There are no excuse for having this many glaring holes in the roster.

Recommended Links

The Edmonton Oilers are a National Hockey League team – Lowetide

Norris – Black Dog Hates Skunks