Edmonton Oilers

Checking in on the Oilogosphere

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One thing I’ve enjoyed writing about on this blog is the link between hockey fans and communication technology. It was the basis for my research project in school, and it’s been a while since I really paid attention to the current Oilogosphere landscape. So reading Wanye’s latest post on OilersNation conjured up a lot of ideas. Here goes:

  • While it’s true that many blogs have gone by the wayside, the majority of the content that these websites published is still available. Ever wondered how bad it was in 2008? There’s some great articles that summed up the team, the management and of course the general consensus of fans (man, we were an optimistic bunch back then). Even though these blogs aren’t active, there’s some excellent archived material that the current crop of bloggers could potentially build off of.
  • Fans have definitely embraced Twitter. It’s a fantastic tool to connect the Oilers fan community and the hockey world at large. It’s a great people connector. Blogs on the other hand, are more of an idea connector that facilitates a tighter, and more fluid discussion. Done right, blogs can still serve as a fantastic tool for information sharing and knowledge development.
  • There’s also a lot more people commenting on blogs than there were in years past. The comment section isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but there are a lot of people who commit a lot of time and energy, the same amount they would have committed on their own blog, to contribute to the overall discussion. Commenting rather than blogging just works better for some.
  • There’s a very clear meritocracy at work in the Oilogosphere. Bloggers are differentiated by the quality of their work rather than their job titles or financial backing. This is a good thing when a community is growing and developing. But eventually the gap between the content produced by top bloggers and the rest increases. This has happened gradually over the past 9-10 years within the Oilogosphere. It can be awfully intimidating now for new bloggers when the Oilers fan community already has a lot of heavy hitters. Many just simply comment or focus their attention elsewhere. I will say that the Oilers fan community in general is very receptive to new or emerging bloggers, so if you have new content or want to build off older stuff, do it now. There’s always something to create or build off of.
  • If you’re interested in making money from blogging, treat it like an actual business venture. It’ll become pretty apparent that the financial rewards are very low. Blogging is about developing new information and sharing ideas. And many of the bloggers that have gone on to do big things were not focused on the money when they started out. They were instead very intrinsically motivated, focused on the quality of their work rather than the potential ad revenue.
  • The value of a press pass has decreased significantly over the past ten years. You can get live press conferences, post game scrums and every single quote in real time and on your phone these days. Giving a blogger a press pass would be nice so they can ask questions directly and possibly enhance their work. But the reason why bloggers have done so well is because they work outside of traditional media rules and standards. Instead they’ve focused less on what player’s say and instead pushed the discussion on things like analytics to focus on what players actually do. The lack of direct information from players has pushed bloggers to analyze the game more creatively, relying on a more collaborative approach to information and knowledge development. They’ve carved out a nice niche in the overall coverage of the Oilers, while those that do have access to players are somewhat floundering in their positions.

Again, if you haven’t read Wanye’s post, it’s here and well worth a read: Oilogosphere Down

Thoughts on the Oilers: Shot differentials, Player development, Perron traded

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img005The club is sitting at a dismal 9-23-3 record. While most teams are staying competitive, the Oilers are making puzzling decisions on their prospects, sending away NHL players and getting outshot on a regular basis.

And the lower this team goes, it seems the more there is to talk about. Why is the team bad? How did it get this bad? Why does the powerplay struggle? Why can’t the goalies be goalies? The fun part of all of this is being able to go back and see all the things that lead up to this disaster. Remember when Draisaitl was described by MacT as being NHL ready? Or when Perron made those lovely comments about his team after the game against New Jersey?

Couple thoughts.

While it’s true that the Oilers were once offered Corey Perry and a pick for Mike Comrie, it’s difficult to say if he would’ve become the star he is today. Perry was selected in the first round by the Ducks in 2003, but left in juniors for another two seasons and then played around 20 games in the AHL before making the jump to the NHL. The Ducks didn’t rush Perry when he was a prospect and did the same for Ryan Getzlaf. The Oilers on the other hand didn’t even have their own farm team at the time and have developed a brutal reputation for rushing prospects and hampering their development (Gagner, Cogliano, and now Schultz, Yakupov, to name a few). So two things: hindsight is always 20/20 and the Oilers have been awful at drafting and developing players since at least 2003.

What we’re seeing from this Draisaitl situation is some of the flawed mentality of Oilers management when it comes to prospects. If Draisaitl’s rights were with a junior team that had a “winning culture” at the start of the year, there’s a good chance the Oilers would’ve secured the services of a veteran centerman like Derek Roy or Mike Ribeiro. That’s pretty unsettling knowing that the Oilers started the season with holes in their lineup, all because MacTavish didn’t like Prince Albert’s development program. It also makes you think of which players in the past were kept fledgling in the NHL only because their junior team didn’t meet the standards of Oilers management. And down the road, when another prospect makes the team at 18, we’ll have to question if the Oilers actually think the player is ready or if he’s there because the Oilers don’t like his junior or college team. Jujhar Khaira, who the Oilers pulled out of college to play in the WHL, comes to mind.

That Perron trade, wow. Unless that late first round pick the Oilers acquired from Pittsburgh is going to bring in a defenceman at the draft, I don’t see the point. I expected Perron to get dealt only because he had enough value to bring in a decent return (i.e., an NHL player to play defence). I thought Perron was outstanding last year. He produced well, possession numbers were good, and he seemed to be instilling some good habits into the roster. Basically everything you would want from an NHL player. This season has been brutal, no question, but the fact is he’s been extremely unlucky when it comes to finishing his chances. Michael Parkatti ran some magic and found that having this bad of a drop off in production is just unheard of. I’m sure the Penguins are aware of this and will likely see Perron bounce back, especially playing with experienced centermen.

It’s going to be amazing to play with any of those three guys, obviously. I just think the play starts from the middle, from the breakout when the d-men hit the guy in the middle. They’re the one that can bring a lot of speed throughout the neutral zone and then they kick it wide to getting it into the zone, they drive the net. – David Perron, Yahoo! 

I thought that was an interesting comment. Gives you a sense of what he looks for in a centerman and why it’d be important to have more than two NHL centermen on your roster. Perron spent most of his time with Arcobello, who struggled mightily this season and was dealt, and Draisaitl, an excellent prospect who really belongs in the WHL for now. Neither of those two had the speed or ability to drive to the net mentioned by Perron. It’s worth noting, that the Oilers’ analytics team played a key role in acquiring Perron. Here’s hoping they can work their magic again to find another gem for MacTavish.

Nice to see the Oilers collecting points with Todd Nelson behind the bench. But the shot differentials are just awful. In the past five games with Nelson as the head coach, the club has been outshot 169-115 (-54, all situations). That’s barely 40% of the total shots. The team wasn’t getting outshot nearly as bad under Eakins, but I’m sure once Nelson has his tactics established, that shot differential should (hopefully) improve.

Recommended Links

How Green Was My Valley – Lowetide

He Didn’t Want To Be Here – Coppernblue

Did Edmonton Oilers management mess up in not sending Leon Draisaitl back to junior earlier? – Cult of Hockey

Thoughts on the Oilers: Culture, gossip and trade speculation

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pimg003I’ve never understood the infatuation with having a “winning culture” in hockey, as if it’s something you can just instill in your club. Really, the only way to obtain the elusive “winning culture” is by, you guessed it, winning. Not by dumping players (i.e., Souray, Horcoff, Gilbert, etc), naming captains, replacing photos in the locker room, or coming up with team mottos.

But culture remains one of those topics that people tend to gossip about when a team isn’t performing. It’s a vague, subjective concept, that suddenly becomes the basis for trade rumors and speculation.

Of course, when your team is dead last, you can expect a jump in these kinds of topics like culture. Teams that struggle are discussed more (see Oilers, Edmonton). Fans have opinions, losing teams clearly need lots of help, so the discussion will naturally center around the culture of the team, why the team is bad and how to improve the team.

This leads us to the rumors about Taylor Hall being a problem in the Oilers locker room and how the Oilers might deal him. It’s frustrating to hear about as an Oilers fan, but the majority of us get the whole rumor cycle and how the machine works.

The source of the rumor is, of course, unnamed. Why would Dreger or any insider give that up and risk their relationships and lose out on future material? It’s his job to inform, but we know, or at least should know, that his messaging is influenced by his employer, team managers and of course player agents. These sources have their own interests and agendas that we know nothing about. Instead, we get tidbits here and there through hockey reporters and are left to discuss and spread the information across our networks.

If the Oilers had an interest in dealing Hall, why would they diminish his value by leaking that he might be “uncoachable”? Add to the fact that Hall has been very productive for the club, providing good value for a very reasonable contract, and you can begin to see where the holes are in this rumor.

It’s obvious that whoever leaked this to Dreger is either trying to motivate Hall, who is mired in a slump right now, or is just trying to get other general managers talking and releasing information on who they might be looking to offload in a trade.

One former Oilers GM put it best in 2000:

Glen Sather, general manager of the Edmonton Oilers, recognizes the value of rumours.

“It is part of selling the game,” he says. “I think rumours are good for the game because they create interest.”

“A player reads a rumour in the paper that he is going to be traded, so all of a sudden his game picks up,” he says.

Sather points to Vaclav Prospal of the Ottawa Senators as an example.

“He was brutal until the stories came out that he was going to be traded, and all of a sudden he is playing a lot better.” (National Post, January 2000)

Now of course, there is always the possibility that a  player gets dealt. The Oilers have a lot of holes to fill, and Hall could get you a decent return. I just don’t see how leaking negative information about your player to a reporter would help facilitate any trade process.

Related: Oil City Speculation (2009)

Thoughts on the Oilers – Losing Streak

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img003Last season doesn’t seem so bad now, eh?

The Oilers have lost 10 straight. The positive trends of the underlying stats had me feeling optimistic about the club. I figured the team would turn it around eventually, but there haven’t been any signs. Had last night’s loss been a one goal game, or if the power play scored at least once, we could at least have something to build off of. Instead, it was a blowout on home ice against a beatable team. And it featured two short handed goals againts (on the same powerplay!) by an ex-player.

Tobias Rieder

When the Oilers dealt Rieder for Kessy, I didn’t really care. It was a prospect swap that sent away skill for size. Thankfully there were some very intelligent people out there who dug deeper and found that this was a terrible deal for the club [Copper and Blue] [Cult of Hockey]. Following last night’s game, it was revealed by Sarah McLellan of Arizona Central that it was Rieder who initiated the trade as he felt that the Oilers had enough forwards similar to himself.

Why would a prospect feel he has no chance to make the club? This team does not have any superstar prospects. What this team does have is the ability to hand out roster spots based on pedigree rather than an actual competition. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rieder felt that as a 4th round pick, he had less of a chance to make it to the big club.

mc79hockey

Something I came across recently were the negative tweets directed at Tyler on Twitter. Many are targeting him as a point of ridicule as he was hired to provide the coaching staff with analytical expertise. With the season down the drain, and the advanced stats under a microscrope, many appear to be directing sarcastic tweets at him rather than the players who, you know, actually play the game.

I’m sure Tyler was prepared for the snarky comments when he took the job. It’s just unfortunate that he’s unable to respond back to people and defend the work that he’s done.

Draft, Develop, and (hopefully) Deploy

One thing that always bothers me is how fast the Oilers push their prospects to the NHL. I’m glad it’s a point of discussion since the club is at it again rushing Leon Draisaitl. There is no harm in letting a player stay in junior or refine their game in the AHL. To this day, I firmly believe the Oilers should’ve given RNH, Yak and Schultz an additional season to develop before making the jump.

And just based on MacTavish’s belief that Schultz could be a Norris trophy winner some day, I looked at the number of junior and minor league games played by Schultz compared with past winners.

Number of games played
Player Juniors College AHL SEL/FIN
Justin Schultz 0 121 34 0
Duncan Keith 37 56 154 0
PK Subban 234 0 77 0
Erik Karlsson 49 0 12 82

Players need time to develop, especially defencemen. Both Keith and Subban were fortunate that their clubs had long-term plans, and got to ease their way into the NHL. Only because of the lockout was Schultz able to play in the AHL, where he finished with 48 points and won the Eddie Shore award for best defenceman. The guy has tremendous upside, no question about it.  He just needed some time in the AHL to workout some of the basics. The Oilers have yet to fully embrace a true model of drafting and developing and until they do, the club will continue to struggle.

Mental Health

One final thought: The current losing streak, combined with the playoff drought has put a real damper on the fan community, especially online. A quick scan of the #oilers hashtag last night during the game found a lot of sarcastic tweets, but many that were about just feeling depressed or down watching the club. It’s understandable. The losing is awful for a fan, and it can be difficult to escape the negativity of others. There’s a lot of negative content about the Oilers right now, and even seeing a headline with “Oilers” in it is typically a downer. In all seriousness, if the team’s performance has you really down, reach out to your personal network and try to unplug from the game. There are also  many resources in the community that are easily accessible and can get you the help you need.

Recommended Links

From Fan to Fat? Vicarious Losing Increases Unhealthy Eating, but Self-Affirmation Is an Effective Remedy – Psychological Science

Many things need to change – Oilersnation

A Golden God – Black Dog Hates Skunks

The Process – Oilers Rig

The Oilers are better than their record and will likely rally the rest of the way – Cult of Hockey

Rieder and Weep – Cult of Hockey

The Losing End – Lowetide

Thoughts on the Oilers: About Saturday Night

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img003The scene at the end of the Oilers game against the Hawks was one of despair, hopelessness and misery. The camera panned to Eakins as the final buzzer went. He looked at the ice, said something to his assistant and then made his way to the tunnel with the rest of the team. 7-1 loss. At home. On Hockey Night in Canada. At this point, I thought back to last March when the Flames absolutely destroyed the Oilers 8-1 on national television.

CBC then cut to the final minute of the Flames-Devils game, where the Flames were down by one. The crowd in Calgary was buzzing as the home team pulled their goalie, rushed up-ice and, with seconds remaining, tied the game. The building went nuts. And sure enough, the Flames won the game in a shootout.

I had a few thoughts leading up to the game and throughout the beatdown. Twitter became a pretty dark place after that shutout loss to the Devils on Friday night, so I stayed away for the most part.

  • Leading up to Saturday night, the Oilers didn’t stand a chance against the Hawks. But sometimes the Oilers can surprise you. Like when Sam Gagner got 8-points. That was a fun time.
  • Absolutely, the worst part about being an Oilers fan is the rampant and unnecessary speculation that pops up when things are going bad. Trade rumors, coaching changes and “team culture” suddenly become the hot topics.
  • At the start of the year, I predicted that Perron would be the most likely to be dealt. Not because he’s a bad player. But because he’s a veteran forward that can produce consistently. Basically the type of guy that a team would want to acquire and be willing to send a player that the Oilers could use (like a centre!). I thought his comments after the Devils game were fantastic. I just hope he doesn’t get traded for this reason.
  • Eberle has got to be deployed differently. He’s a talented forward, but his defensive capabilities have been exposed for a couple of years now. The club needs to move him away from the other team’s top lines, but he doesn’t seem to have chemistry with anyone else but Hall and RNH. I’m not saying to trade him. Just deploy him better.
  • When Devan Dubnyk struggled with the Oilers last year, MacTavish mentioned that he was given some data that showed that many goalies go through rough patches but tend to get back to their playing level. (This was Tyler Dellow’s work, before he joined the club, which isn’t available anymore unfortunately). In each year before his nightmare season, Dubnyk had a 0.916 SV%, 0.914 SV% and 0.920 SV%. At the quarter way mark of this season, Dubnyk is sitting at a 6-0-1 record, with a 0.926 SV%. I wasn’t a huge fan of the goaltending carousel that landed Scrivens and Fasth. And now it looks like the Oilers’ goalie coach is taking the fall. Bizarre.
  • I really thought the Eakins hiring would’ve gone better. I figured a young coach, with experience in the AHL, would bring some new ideas and tactics to the Oilers. Following his rookie season, he added Craig Ramsay and Rocky Thompson to his coaching staff. He reached out to other professional coaches for help. He brought on Tyler Dellow to provide analytic support. But he has yet to have a complete roster. The last thing this club needs is a new coach. Are they even sure another coach would even want to come here?
  • All MacTavish had to do was fill out the roster, give his coaches some free reign and not put Norris expectations on Justin Schultz. Everything would’ve been just fine.
  • I don’t see MacT making a coaching change. He’s preached the importance of consistency. He’s been in the coaches situation before and knows the benefits of sticking with a coach. It would not surprise me at all if MacT sticks with Eakins until the bitter end.
  • Side note: I had no idea people loved Ralph Kreuger so much. He seemed like a likable guy, but I don’t remember him getting a lot of support during his stint here.
  • It’s pretty obvious since the off-season that the team needs help at centre, on defense and goaltending. This is clearly on the management group, who have yet to give their coaches a complete line up. There are no excuse for having this many glaring holes in the roster.

Recommended Links

The Edmonton Oilers are a National Hockey League team – Lowetide

Norris – Black Dog Hates Skunks

Thoughts on the Oilers: Chasing Optimism

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Dead last in the conference. Sitting at 6-10-2. Brutal.

img003Quick rundown of the season:

  • At home: 1L, 4W, 4L
  • On the road: 5L, 2W, 1L
  • Overall: 5L, 4W, 4L, 2W, 3L.

It’s easy to pick this team apart. For one, they’ve struggled at different areas like goaltending, defence and centre. And second, we have experience dissecting a bad team as it’s been the same story since 2006. We know what a bad team looks like, right?

But unlike the past few years, there has been progress. The 12 (!!) forwards look like a legit NHL group. RNH is growing into a star. And the underlying stats are pointing to an improved puck possession team. Unfortunately, the wins aren’t coming, so the frustration is starting to build among the masses. And preaching patience isn’t going to work on a fanbase that has been waiting for a competitive NHL team since 2006.

Sapp made a fantastic point that pretty much summed up my general outlook on the Oilers:

The last three losses have been extremely frustrating. Each game featured stretches of terrible play by the Oilers. The first period in Nashville where they got outplayed and outshot, resulting in a 3-0 defecit was a perfect example. The Oilers did manage to score a couple to make it close, but they couldn’t recover from the hole they dug themselves into. When a team comes out flat like that, I tend to fault the coaches whose sole purpose is to implement a strategy and get the right guys deployed. My concern this past week has been that adjustments appear to be made at the intermission rather than during the period. Regardless of the reason, the club is losing a lot more 1-goal games and just aren’t finishing their chances. You’d think this will turn around soon, but then the club keeps giving the cherry minutes to Shultz, scratching Marincin from the lineup, and musing about adding Gazdic to the roster.

Tough stretch of games coming up against western conference teams who the Oilers, for whatever reason, can’t beat. Absolutely bizarre.

Quick point on analytics: It’s a highly personal thing. There are common methods to uncover patterns in data, but the value we put into the data depends on our own biases and interpretation of the game. For instance, Corsi/Fenwick are great. But I tend to value shots on goal and shot differential higher. Just do.  And also keep in mind that analytics has, in my opinon, enhanced the overall discussion of the game. It won’t explain everything, and it might not always make sense, but it’s a much more engaging starting point than “Hemsky is the first guy off the ice at practice…”.

Recommended Links

Oilers are taking positive steps – TSN

Season fancystats updateafter 15 games – Boys on the Bus

If the Oilers’ advanced stats are so good, why don’t they win hockey games? – Oilersnation

One of these nights – Lowetide

The Yandle Treatment – Woodblog

Thoughts on the Oilers: Defencemen, Rookies and Training Camp

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10279542Welp. This hasn’t gone as planned.

Five straight losses to start the season. Three of which were against division opponents.

From what I’ve seen, this is a better team than last year. The goals against are coming from quick plays and bad turnovers. I haven’t seen a whole lot of running around in the defensive zone, which was prominent last year. And it was always after that running around the Oilers would get scored on. This year, there’s just been some horrible turnovers and sub-par goaltending that’s been to blame. But both of these things are fixable.

I’m still confident in the twelve forwards. Again, it’s not a deep lineup, especially at centre, but I think all four lines (for once!) are pretty decent. My only issue is the utilization of Draisatl on the second line. The club has got to do something about that to not only find a complementary player for Yakupov, but also give Draisatl a chance to develop properly.

I had confidence in the defensemen at the start, only because I assumed that Petry would be playing important minutes and the rest of the group would be legitimate NHL players. Instead, Petry has had his minutes reduced, including a healthy scratch, and the club has relied on guys like Schultz, Nurse (back to junior now) and Hunt (back to the AHL).

What this tells me is that the Oilers training camp did not go too well. There were injuries, but the coaches didn’t do enough of an assessment to confidently assign the right minutes and situations to the right players. We’re five games in to the regular season, and the club is only now starting to iron out their defensive roster.

I guess this is what happens when you’re coming out of a losing season and start to re-jig your defensive tactics. Coaches have to test out which players fit where and basically reacquaint themselves with the roster. Perfect example is benching Petry for guy like Hunt. The latter has a decent shot and can join the powerplay, but his overall game isn’t near the level of the former. Marincin, who stood out near the end of last season is only now getting in to the NHL roster.

I’d also be curious to know how much say the forwards have on who plays defense in key situations. I don’t understand how or why Schultz is playing more than 24 minutes when he’s having such a hard time playing without the puck. The guy is fantastic getting out of the zone, but still has trouble keeping up with rushes from the opposition. He’s still developing, and really should be deployed more efficiently.

Regardless of the poor start, there’s ample time to turn this around and get some wins. There has yet to be a game where the forwards, defensemen and goaltending all played a decent game as a unit. Now that the defense is looking like somewhat of an NHL roster with the promotion of Marincin, the goaltending should improve.

Recommended Links

Gregor: Draisaitl’s development likely better in junior – Edmonton Journal

Mirtle: Blame bad luck, goaltending for Oilers early mess – Globe and Mail

Same time next year – Lowetide

Thoughts on the Oilers: 2014/2015 Season, Forwards, Defence, Goaltending

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Leon Draisaitl

Leon Draisaitl

This is year two of the MacTavish-Eakins era and needless to say, there has to be progress following last season’s train wreck.

Forwards

I think the new additions will be a massive boost to the club. Experience still counts in this league, so it’s refreshing to see guys like Pouliot and Purcell flanking a very young and developing core. Both are still in their primes, making serious money. But both should be counted on for secondary scoring.

The top six overall looks like a legit NHL group. But because of the weaknesses at centre, this club is one injury away from entering the McDavid sweepstakes. There is never a good reason to keep a player under 20 on your roster, unless he’s Crosby or Ovechkin. And again the Oilers will be relying on a young prospect to produce with Draisatl securing the second line centre position. Here’s hoping he can at least get the softer minutes (i.e., offensive zone face offs, power play time, against easier competition). With such a glaring hole at centre, I think most assumed the Oilers would’ve sought out a veteran player like Derek Roy or Derek Legwand.

Defence

This group is definitely an improvement from last season, with the addition of Fayne and Nikitin. But it is still far from being a top NHL caliber group. Guys like Schultz, Klefbom, Marincin and Nurse are still developing, but will likely be asked to play high end minutes. If this club can stay healthy, and the team is smart enough to keep Petry long-term, I think they can compete well in their division. My expectations when it comes to how they play as a unit is much higher with the addition of Craig Ramsay on the staff. It’ll be interesting to see if he can find a way to better utilize this group and find some success in 5-on-5 situations.

Goaltending

This is one area where I’m still unsure about. If the coaching staff can limit the ridiculous amount of clean zone entries and two-on-ones like last year, I think this tandem is good enough. But if those same defensive lapses and poor coverage emerge from last season, no goalie will stand a chance. Here’s hoping some stronger possession play through all three zones will help the goalies. From what I saw last year and the pre-season, I’m predicting Fasth comes out as the clear cut number one goalie by November.

Bold Predictions

Regardless of the glaring hole at centre and the question mark in net, I think there’s a lot of potential in this current roster. The wings have a lot of talent and experience, and stack up well against the top teams in the league. The defence has improved with new roster players and the addition of Ramsay. MacTavish has brought in proven possession players with experience, which should hopefully translate to less time scrambling and chasing the puck. An additional 10 wins from last season isn’t asking for much, so I’m predicting they make a jump up to 10th in the west this season.

2013/2014 Season:

29-44-9
67 PTS
203 GF
270 GA
14th in the West

2014/2015 Predictions:

39-36-7
85 PTS
220 GF
240 GA
10th in the West

Top Scorer: Taylor Hall
Best defenceman*: Jeff Petry
Likely to get dealt: David Perron

*Based on boxcars and advanced stats

Recommended Links

The Autumn Leaves Drift by My Window – Lowetide

Are We There Yet? – Copper and Blue

Oilers Rig Podcast – The Oilers Rig

Following the Oilers

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In the midst of all of the losing and failed playoff attempts are questions from concerned friends and loved ones.

          Why do you still cheer for the Oilers?

          It’s the same thing every year. Aren’t you sick of it?

          Are you okay?

Surrounding those questions are taunts and ridicule, constantly reminding us that it’s been a long time since the Oilers made it to the playoffs. That the Oilers have only made the playoffs 7 times in the past 18 seasons is easy to showcase. And that any sort of memory of dynasties should be washed away with the tears of pain and disappointment.

So why DO we follow this team?

First it’s important to review how we got in this position. My own real commitment, when I had the attention span to watch games and follow the news, started well after the dynasty days. This goal right here from the 1997 playoffs. Game 7, Dallas, overtime.

I was hooked. And every year since, despite all of the losing, the attachment grows. I’ll try to explain.

The Oilers being terrible has led to some unintentional consequences. All of which have played a significant role in our personal attachment to the team. While famous research studies have pointed to basking in reflected glory, I would argue that Oiler fans are basking in an addiction to uncertainty.

From the uncertainty that stems from professional sports, we’ve created an excessive amount of discourse. Think of the message boards, the blogs, the comments, the tweets. All filled with speculation and the ensuing gossip, which serves as a bridging tool for strangers to connect, share ideas and build community. And built on the foundation of the speculation and gossip across these channels are the storylines. Think of any player drafted and their back story before coming to training camp. Or when a player is playing poorly, we ponder what changes are needed in the lineup.

And from the storylines, we build these unique characters. We develop these strong attachments to players in the hope that they succeed (or fail depending on your outlook in life). Each character carries traits and skills, creating numerous short and long compelling narratives that we want (or hope) to see the completion of.

And at the very heart of all of this is the community, which includes fans, writers, broadcasters, and anyone else watching the game. The stories need a medium to be exchanged and extended, and it’s the social aspect of fandom that drives the communal and individual attachment to the game.

Now if the team wasn’t terrible, I’d argue there would be less to speculate on. I can only imagine what it’d be like supporting the Kings or Bruins. I’m pretty sure the topics would not include fledgling 4th round draft picks and failed defensive systems. The Oilers being terrible really is why it’s hard to quit now. We’ve invested so much time and energy following the story, it’s hard to turn away from the uncertainty and the possibility that some sort of conclusion exists. Combine that with the community you’re a part of, and the regular discourse, there really is a social attachment to the game that’s difficult to break.

Finding the SuperFan

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An Oiler fans trek through blogs, hockey analytics and academia.

Back in 2008, I decided it was time to head back to school to finish a graduate degree. Something I can do part-time, something related to my day-job, and something that would interest me enough to stay motivated. I came across the Communications and Technology program at the University of Alberta while surfing the web and decided to take the plunge.

My background was in sociology and my interests were always research methodology and group dynamics (how do groups get together to accomplish stuff). I figured a lot of the technology starting to take off was changing the way groups interact and to how much they could accomplish as a group. My main interests have always been information and knowledge management. How do we know what we know, and how do we work collectively to build new knowledge and information. That group dynamic is always intriguing since it’s been occurring for centuries, but has really accelerated because of the advancement of communication technology. The web is an obvious example, but what is it about the web and what sort of rules apply that allows it to be so critical for information development and knowledge sharing. It was pretty high level thinking at the time since I honestly had no idea where my graduate career was going to go.

The Program

Before starting the MACT program, all applicants had to submit a research idea for their final project. I had no clue what I wanted to do, so I decided to something work-related and chose electronic health records. It was a hot button topic in healthcare, so I thought some sort of research on it would be interesting. I received my acceptance letter and was to start the program in the spring of 2009.

All students were also asked to maintain a “digital portfolio” (i.e., a blog) as a way to centralize assignments and reflect on key topics. Not many students actually did one, but I figured this might be a useful way to find a supervisor for my final research paper.

Within a couple months of starting the program, getting deep into communication theory, I realized there wasn’t anything interesting about electronic health records. There had already been a ton of research on it, including the type of technology used, its adoption in various countries and the benefits of it. That realization and the fact that others in my cohort had some killer ideas, I knew right away that I needed to find another topic.

Reset

By the end of the spring session, which included a three week residency-type set up on campus to complete a two courses, I was absolutely spent. We covered a ton of material and new concepts and spent hours completing assignments and presentations. I really tried to apply my research topic of health records to everything we covered, but it just wasn’t interesting. My attitude about the program reflected it. And my grades showed it as well.  Continue reading →