Following up to my post from the end of October where I looked at the Pacific division and each team’s underlying numbers.

Heading into Saturday night’s game at home against Vegas, the Oilers were fifth in their division with 26 points. The Flames are sitting in first with 32 points, and a +14 overall goal differential. The Ducks, thanks to their exceptional goaltending, are second with 31 points but have a -14 goal differential. Amazing. San Jose – who were expected to run away with the division are third with 29 points and a -2 overall goal differential.

Here’s how the Pacific division teams have done as of November 30, 2018. An explanation of each metric can be found in the glossary at the end of the article.

Couple notes:

• At even-strength (5v5), the Edmonton Oilers have been good possession-wise, ranking 12th in the league when it comes to Corsi For percentage and Fenwick-for percentage. Their goaltending has been fine as well, ranking 13th in the league thanks to the play of Mikko Koskinen. The Oilers are doing well defensively, ranking 9th in the league when it comes to the rate of unblocked shot attempts (i.e., Fenwick) with 40.75 per hour and ranking 10th when it comes to the rate of high danger shot attempts with 10.47 per hour. Most importantly, the Oilers rank 10th in the league in goals against per hour with 2.24 per hour.
• The biggest and most alarming issue for the Oilers is goal-scoring. They’ve only scored 38 goals at even-strength, a rate of 1.90 per hour which ranks them 4th worst in the league. The only teams they’re ahead of? Anaheim, Arizona and Los Angeles – all division rivals.
• One more thing about goal-scoring – over the last two seasons, the Oilers have never posted a 25-game stretch where they’ve scored lower than 2.00 goals per hour. This really is incredible considering that they’re top players are all healthy. Part of the issue is luck, as their shooting percentage is below team averages. The big problem of course is the lack of talent on the wings, something that needs to be addressed as soon as possible.
• The teams that are currently strongest possession-wise are Calgary, San Jose and Vegas. Arizona started off strong, but their possession numbers have dropped since the end of October, while Calgary has gradually improved.
• When it comes to powerplays, the Oilers are tops in the Pacific and sixth league-wide with 8.73 goals per hour. San Jose is 11th and Calgary is 13th. When it comes to penalty kills, Arizona and San Jose are one and two respectively league-wide allowing less than 4.5 goals against per hour. Calgary, Vancouver and Los Angeles are among the league’s worst.
• While Calgary’s goaltending appears to have improved, both San Jose and Vegas are having issues with theirs. San Jose has a -10 goal differential at even-strength and Vegas has a -7 goal differential – remarkable considering the amount of hype around both teams in the off-season.
• Among 38 goalies who have played at least 450 minutes at even-strength this season, Sharks goaltender Martin Jones ranks last with a save percentage 88.1%. And Marc-Andre Fleury ranks 32nd with a save percentage of 90.7%. It’ll be something to keep an eye on as both clubs have high expectations and may need to explore the goalie market to ensure they have success.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

• Points percentage (PTS%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
• Goals-for and Goals-against (GF/GA) – The number of goals scored and the number goals allowed at even-strength.
• Goal Differential (Goal +/-) – The difference between the goals scored and the number of goals allowed (i.e., goals-for minus goals-against)
• Corsi For percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Corsi For/(Corsi For + Corsi Against). This is used as a proxy for possession and can predict a team’s future share of goals (GF%).
• Fenwick For percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick For/(Fenwick For + Fenwick Against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill. It can also predict a team’s future share of goals, slightlty better than Corsi.
• Shots For percentage (SF%) – The proportion of all the shots on goal that the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Shots For/(Shots For + Shots Against).
• Scoring Chances For percentage (SCF%) – The proportion of all the scoring chances that the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Scoring Chances For/(Scoring Chances For + Scoring Chances Against),
• Goals For percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals For/(Goals For + Goals Against).
• Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
• Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against))
• PDO – The sum of a team’s shooting percentage (SH%) and its save percentage (SV%). It’s based on the theory that most teams will ultimately regress toward a sum of 100, and is often viewed as a proxy for how lucky a team is. (Source)

Out of curiosity, I wanted to know what Ken Hitchcock’s history has been on the powerplay and the penalty kill. Fact is, the Oilers are coming off a dreadful  season that was sunk in large part by their poor special teams. This season, things haven’t gone so well either. Prior to Hitchcock’s hiring, the Oilers ranked 16th in the league on the powerplay (5v4), with a goals for per hour rate of 7.72, and 25th in the league on the penalty kill (4v5), allowing 8.69 goals against per hour.

Worth noting that the penalty kill has done a good job prior to Hitchcock’s hiring at limiting shots and chances against, but their goaltending has sunk them.  The results have been poor, but I don’t think it’s because of the process they have in place. The powerplay on the other hand is average and average for good reason as they struggle to generate shots consistently. Considering how much talent they have, their current results and underlying numbers are unacceptable.

Two numbers that I rely on when looking at special teams: goals and unblocked shots.

Goals are what wins and loses you games – those are the actual results so it’s obviously important. Unblocked shots  (i.e., Fenwick – also a proxy for shot quality) is what teams are trying to generate on the powerplay and limit on the penalty kill, and it’s largely driven by coaching and the tactics they employ. Goals on the powerplay can be driven by individual talent – players go hot and cold, and we know how random goal-scoring can be sometimes. On the penalty kill,  same thing, but it’s the individual talent between the pipes that can hide a team’s deficiencies and prop up positive results. That’s why I look at shot metrics, as they  can give you some insight on whether or not the results on the powerplay or penalty kill are real.

When pulling goals and shots, I look at rate stats to gauge how efficient a team is on special teams. We know that not all teams take and draw the same number of penalties. And looking at goals and Fenwick at a per-60 rate gives us a better idea of how efficient a powerplay or penalty kill unit was.

Since we only have access to Fenwick numbers on powerplays and penalty kills from 2007 on-wards, I only looked at three of Hitchcock’s four seasons in Columbus, his full six year run in St. Louis, and his one-year stint in Dallas last season.

Powerplay (5v4)

Below are Hitchcock’s results on the powerplay since 2007.

Team	Season	Fenwick For/60	Goals For/60
CLB	2007/08	58.54-23rd	4.98-25th
CLB	2008/09	65.93-25th	4.63-29th
CLB	2009/10	69.76-17th	6.24-15th
STL	2011/12	75.96-6th	6.33-12th
STL	2013	73.08-4th	7.08-7th
STL	2013/14	67.54-20th	6.73-6th
STL	2014/15	76.33-7th	7.89-4th
STL	2015/16	60.11-30th	8.10-1st
STL	2016/17	69.52-24th	7.46-9th
DAL	2017/18	79.32-10th	6.99-17th

Notes:

• He had some fantastic results in St. Louis, but I suspect it was largely driven by the individual talent on his teams. As a group, the Blues didn’t always do a good job at generating unblocked shots and instead relied on above average team shooting percentages. That 2015/16 season was interesting – they were last in the league at generating shot attempts, but still managed to finish with the best powerplay in the league – thanks to a 18.59% shooting percentage, the highest rate a team has posted in a full season since 2007.
• Hitchcock’s results on the powerplay in Columbus weren’t very good. They finisihed near the bottom of the league,  and struggled to generate a lot of offence. Prior to being fired in his fourth season there, the club had improved and was right around league average when it came to goals and shots.
• The powerplay in Dallas appears to have been a little unlucky. They were 10th in the league at generating shots, and did well in generating chances from the high danger area. But their team shooting percentage finished in the bottom third of the league. The numbers they posted on the powerplay under Hitchcock were pretty close to the numbers they posted the year before when Lindy Ruff was behind the Stars bench.

Penalty Kill (4v5)

Below are Hitchcock’s results on the penalty kill since 2007.

Team	Season	Fenwick Against/60	Goals Against/60
CLB	2007/08	61.89-10th	5.47-10th
CLB	2008/09	68.18-10th	6.25-11th
CLB	2009/10	69.09-15th	6.71-22nd
STL	2011/12	60.67-5th	3.44-3rd
STL	2013	52.82-2nd	4.89-5th
STL	2013/14	61.69-3rd	4.54-2nd
STL	2014/15	63.73-2nd	5.43-8th
STL	2015/16	70.46-13th	4.58-3rd
STL	2016/17	66.47-9th	6.49-20th
DAL	2017/18	72.73-8th	6.64-13th

Notes:

• Outstanding results pretty much anywhere he goes.
• Hitchcock regularly has his team in the top 10 when it comes to the rate of unblocked shot attempts against.
• The year before he got to Dallas, the Stars had one of the worst penalty kills in the league, allowing the most goals per hour and were mediocre when it came to limiting shots against. It did also help Hitchcock to have Ben Bishop in net for most of the games, compared to the season prior when Ruff only had Lehtonen and Niemi.
• For my own interest, I looked into how well Hitchcock’s clubs have done at generating shot attempts when shorthanded – just to get a sense of how aggressive his teams play. His teams have typically been below average in this regard, so I don’t expect a spike in shorthanded goals.

Thoughts

• Hitchcock’s results on the penalty kill have been excellent, and they’ve been real. It’s true he’s had some very good goaltending over the years, but his teams have regularly been top five defensively limiting shots and high danger chances. Hopefully he can implement some of that in Edmonton. Wonder how Trent Yawney feels.
• The powerplay is an area that I think Hitchcock should lean on Manny Viveiros for, as his assistant has had powerplay success in his prior coaching stints. Hitchcock hasn’t had the greatest success when it comes to generating chances, and he could get away with it in Edmonton with McDavid running things. But it’d be in the team’s best interest to have two effective units that consistently generate shots and hopefully goals.
• One thing worth seeing after another 20 games or so is how much different Hitchcock deploys certain players and forward and defensive tandems on the powerplay and penalty kill compared to McLellan.
• At the end of the season, it’ll be interesting to compare the Oilers results under Hitchcock with the results under McLellan. Here’s how the Oilers fared over the three full seasons with McLellan behind the bench:

2015-2018	Fenwick For/60	Goals For/60
Powerplay	74.47-14th	6.44-18th

2015-2018	Fenwick Against/60	Goals Against/60
Penalty Kill	72.34-12th	7.09-24th

Any feedback, let me know.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

One of the most interesting things about this Oilers season has been the powerplay (5v4). It’s a critical area for the team, as they finished dead last in 2017/18 and the team tried to address it in the summer by revamping the coaching staff. The team isn’t exactly a powerhouse at even-strength due to the lack of talent and depth (especially on the wings) – so it’s going to be important for the powerplay to consistently produce if they want to contend for a playoff spot.

The good news so far is that the team currently ranks 12th in the league when it comes to the rate of goals for per hour (GF/60) with 7.81, scoring 12 times. The fact that McDavid has nine powerplay points (5 goals, 4 assists – three of which were primary assists) should tell you all you need to know about who has been the offensive driver. Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins, who each have seven points, along with Klefbom are the go-to unit with McDavid playing around 65 of the Oilers total 92 powerplay minutes this season. The roughly 25% of the remaining powerplay time has been left for Ryan Strome and really whoever else the coaching staff feels like throwing out there.

The team as a whole isn’t doing a great job of generating unblocked shot attempts (69.67 FF/60, 19th in the league), relying more on a team shooting percentage that’s currently at 16.0%. The average team shooting percentage over the last three seasons has been 12.58, so we’ll see how long the Oilers can convert at the rate that they’re currently at.

It’s really when the first powerplay unit is on the ice that the team gets going, generating over 80 unblocked shot attempts per hour – a rate that would have them among the league’s best. And they’ve scored 10 of the teams 12 powerplay goals –  a rate of 8.84 goals per hour – which isn’t bad but really should be better considering the talent that they have.

When the second powerplay unit is deployed, it’s been dreadful – generating 39.51 unblocked shot attempts and only scoring twice (a rate of 4.94 goals per hour). It’s easy to tell why the coaching staff is giving close to 75% of the total powerplay time to the first unit.

Couple things that I think the team needs to address.

First off, the first powerplay unit is heavily relying on Nugent-Hopkins, who is also getting regular minutes on the penalty kill (4v5) and also Draisaitl, who is gradually getting more reps shorthanded. Knowing what we know about recovery time, sport science, and the importance of rest for professional athletes, I’m not sure if it’s a good idea to have your best players spending so much of their energy on both special team units. Both RNH and Draisaitl are probably young enough to handle it, but it’d probably be in the team’s best interest if the workload was distributed.

It’d really help if the coaching staff had a stronger second powerplay unit, not only to take the load off the first powerplay unit, but to also have fresher legs on the penalty kill. The team really is lacking a special teams specialist on their fourth line, similar to what they had in Letestu who at one point was really effective on the powerplay. I don’t think these commodities are hard to find; some simple research and scouting can probably uncover these.

I think a big reason why the Oilers first powerplay unit is able to consistently generate shots and chances is because they’re working the puck down low to set up the forwards. And of course it makes total sense – the talent is there up front so get the pucks to them and get shots from high probability locations. What I’ve found is that the second powerplay unit isn’t nearly as effective at getting shot from the more high danger areas – instead relying more on shot attempts form the defencemen at the point. The concept is a pretty dated one – work the puck up top, get a shot from the defenceman and look for rebounds. Unfortunately, that’s not really making the best use of your time as your chances of scoring goals are much higher when the puck is in close coming from players with scoring talent.

Using Klefbom as our proxy for the top powerplay unit, the Oilers have generated 109 shot attempts (i.e., Corsi). And of those 109 shot attempts, 18 have come from the stick of Klefbom – coming out to 16.5%. When Klefbom isn’t on the ice, the team has generated 36 shot attempts, with 15 of those coming from the stick of one of the other defencemen – a proportion of 41.7%. Ideally, the Oilers would have enough talent up front on their second powerplay unit so they’re not taking this high of a proportion of low probability shot attempts. In my mind, the team needs to fix their overall powerplay tactics and find a way to balance their first and second units.

One last thing: the drop in the rate of unblocked shot attempts from the first powerplay unit to the second powerplay unit is massive, a difference of 40.96. I took a quick look at last year’s data, comparing each team’s first and second powerplay units (using each team’s top forward in terms of ice time as a proxy) and their rate of unblocked shot attempts. On average, a team’s rate of unblocked shot attempts dropped by 18.35 when their second powerplay unit was deployed. Only one team had a drop of more than 40 unblocked shot attempts and that was the Sabres who finished 24th in the league in terms of goals for per hour.

While the team is doing alright generating goals on the powerplay, I think it’s imperative that they put a critical lens on things and find ways to sustain their success. I don’t think what they’re doing right now is sustainable, and there are significant ramifications to the team’s overall success if they don’t make adjustments.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Plenty of optimism around the Oilers as they sit third in the Pacific, winning their last two games and going 7-2-1 in their last ten. Their most recent win featured their fourth line scoring twice and a good performance from backup goaltender Mikko Koskinen.

Those two features right there – depth scoring and goaltending – should get a lot of attention for the rest of the season. We’ve known for some time now about how the Oilers struggle to break even (goal-wise and shot-wise) when McDavid isn’t on the ice, and it needs to be better if this team intends on contending for a championship. And finding a reliable back-up – who could not only give Talbot a rest but also potentially push for the starting position next season – is going to be critical for long-term success.

The Oilers most recent stretch of games has seen their overall goal differential improve as they’re finally getting production from their depth forwards.

Since their loss to Nashville on Hockey Night in Canada, the Oilers have played quite well – outscoring opponents 16-9 for a goal-share of 64.0% over seven games. I know I was pretty disappointed in that loss against Nashville; I felt like they had been getting lucky pushing teams like Winnipeg and Boston into overtime and looked so-so against the Predators. Plus I hate it when the Oilers lose on national games (even though I should be used to it by now). So it’s been a relief to see the team show some signs of life over the last couple of weeks.

As Darcy McLeod (@woodguy55) pointed out, the line of Draisaitl, Rieder and Chiasson has been outstanding. Over the last seven games, they’ve played just over 63 minutes together at even-strength (5v5), outscoring opponents 5-0. Their shot-share numbers have been solid as well, posting a 53.57% Corsi For percentage (proxy for possession) and a 56.57% Fenwick For percentage (proxy for scoring chances). This is a line that’s getting results and has the underlying numbers that indicate their success has a good chance of being sustainable.

The other trio that has shown some chemistry over a limited sample size at even-strength is Brodziak, Khaira and Kassian. Over the last seven games, they’ve played just over 42 minutes together, outscoring opponents 3-1 (75.0% goal-share). Their shot-share numbers together have been good as well – 59.77% Corsi For percentage and a 60.73% Fenwick For percentage. I’m not too surprised Khaira is having this success – he tends to do well when he can play center part-time with another center on his line. Kassian I feel like is the replaceable one here, and that if the team were able to move his contract and plug in someone like Cooper Marody, Khaira and Brodziak would still have success.

One thing I will add is that whoever the Oilers have on their third or fourth lines this season needs to be able to do some work on the penalty kill or powerplay. Right now the Oilers are running their top powerplay unit quite regularly with all five lefties (McDavid, Lucic, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins and Klefbom) averaging over four minutes per game at 5v4. Finishing a season averaging over four minutes per game is almost unheard of for forwards, with only a handful of guys doing that over the last five seasons. On top of that, Nugent-Hopkins and now Draisaitl are getting regular minutes on the penalty kill – something I can’t see continuing. The coach is running his go-to players on the powerplay and may have an issue trusting others considering how much pressure he’s under to win this season.

One quick note about Nugent-Hopkins: he’s killing it on the penalty kill (4v5). He’s third on the team in total ice time shorthanded and has yet to be on the ice for a goal against. The rate of shots and scoring chances against are at their lowest this year when he’s on the ice – and he’s a big reason why the Oilers as a whole are doing better at limiting shots-against this season compared to last season. I have a couple theories as to why this is happening, but still working through some data.

One player that’s seeing significant minutes this season and doing quite well is Oscar Klefbom. He ranks fourth in the league in average ice time among defencemen, only behind Doughty, Suter and Karlsson. Over the first 13 games, the Oilers have a 68.75% goal-share (11 GF, 5 GA), and a 55.11% Corsi-for percentage with him on the ice – both metrics rank Klefbom first on the Oilers among defencemen. The possession numbers are what surprises me most as he’s often out there against the best opponents and starts most often outside the offensive zone compared to his teammates. It’s usually a team’s third pairing defenceman that often leads a team in Corsi-for perecentage and other shot-share metrics as they tend to get easier opposition and start often in the offensive zone.

Worth noting too that Klefbom has not been riding McDavid’s coat-tails. Some quick stats from the first 13 games:

• McDavid with Klefbom (111 mins) – 55.08% CF%, 75.0% GF% (6 GF, 2 GA)
• McDavid without Klefbom (101 mins) – 45.94% CF%, 66.67% GF% (4 GF, 2 GA)
• Klefbom without McDavid (129 mins) – 55.17% CF%, 62.50% GF% (5 GF, 3 GA)
• Oilers without Klefbom or McDavid (271 mins) – 46.40% CF%, 35.0% (7 GF, 13 GA)

That second bullet of the team posting a 45.94% Corsi-for percentage with McDavid but without Klefbom is interesting. We know McDavid has superhuman talent, so the concern here should be that someone is dragging down McDavid or is not playing the complementary role very well. My first thought is it’s Nurse’s play impacting McDavid, as I don’t think he’s been very consistent, especially in his own zone. He has posted a 45.95% Corsi-for percentage this season, which is just ahead of Rusell as well as Benning who only  up until recently been playing better. But it’s something to watch for on the Oilers blueline and its depth as I don’t think it’d be smart to overplay Klefbom.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com