The Oilers’ Issue with Faceoffs

In a recent interview on Inside Sports, Oilers assistant coach Jay Woodcroft discussed his clubs poor starts and how faceoffs were something they were working on.  Full interview below:

To be honest, when I recently took a look at  some of the underlying stats from the Oilers first periods, I didn’t pay too much attention to faceoffs. It’s not something that has a significant impact on a team’s possession ratings (Source: Hockey Graphs) and doesn’t really determine the outcome of a game (Source: Arctic Ice Hockey). In the interview above, Woodcroft does talk about the importance of faceoffs and controlling the play, so I figured it’d be worth digging into to see what he and the coaching staff are up against.

Here’s a breakdown of the Oilers faceoff win percentages at even-strength this season broken out by period, along with their league ranking.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Talking about the loss last night, options on defence, goaltending and more on The Lowdown with Lowetide

Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the loss in Chicago, the goaltending, the upcoming week and other roster-related matters. Audio below.

Couple of notes:

  • I mentioned that Talbot’s first 10 games as an Oilers are similar to his start as the number one goalie in New York last season. That and additional comparables are in my latest post over at The Copper & Blue.
  • My colleague at C&B, Bituman, also took a look at how the Oilers have done at limiting shot attempts this season and season’s prior. Spoiler: they haven’t been good.
  • Highly recommend Matt Henderson’s article over at OilersNation that talks about the young talent we have on defence. I know the Oilers get a lot of grief about how poorly they’ve drafted defencemen, but we have some very nice pieces on the left side.
  • I also looked at where the Oilers rank league-wide this season when it comes to even-strength minutes played by guys 24 and under. Oilers were 10th in the league heading into last night.
  • If you’re wondering where a good spot is to get game-by-game stats on linemates and competition, I highly recommend Natural Stat Trick and War on Ice. Last night’s game is here.

Thanks again to Lowetide for having me on. Always enjoy it.

Deploying the Youth on Defence

With Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse and Brandon Davidson taking regular shifts on the Oilers blueline this season, I figured this might be some sort of record in the league. What I wanted to find out specifically was what proportion of a team’s defence core’s minutes have been given to players 24 and under so far this season.

My guess was that the Oilers would be near the top of the list. And of course I was wrong. They’re actually 10th in the league.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

What’s Going on with Cam Talbot?

Cam Talbot’s first 10 games as the Oilers starter haven’t been great as he’s currently holding a 89.3% adjusted save percentage. Of the 25 goalies who have played a minimum of 350 minutes at even-strength this season (roughly eight games), Talbot ranks 23rd, only ahead of Sergei Bobrovsky and Chad Johnson(Source: War on Ice)

Before I get into this further, a couple things I want to note:

  • The Oilers need Talbot to provide average goaltending. Doesn’t have to be elite. Just average. And the average adjusted save percentage among goalies with more than 1,300 minutes (roughly 30 games) last season and the season prior were 92.2% and 92.3% respectively.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

What’s Going on with Lander?

The top two lines have been playing extremely well for the Edmonton Oilers. The top line has taken on the top line of opposing teams while the second line led by Connor McDavid, has been producing at an elite rate. Unfortunately, the rest of the forwards have struggled to produce, often getting outshot by opponents and barely generating anything in the offensive zone. Anton Lander has been singled out a number of times now this season by fans and the coaching staff, and for good reason. Following a successful career in the AHL, and showing well in a full-time role last season, the Oilers signed him to a two year, one way contract to solidify the center position. Personally, I was thrilled for the player as well as for the Oilers who have long struggled to have four reliable pivots at any given time.

Thirteen games into the season, it’s a good time to ask what the issue is and really if there are any remedies. By eye, Lander has struggled gaining the zone and often losing puck battles. Expectations of his actual point production should remain modest, since he notched 20 points in 38 games last season, with just over half of those points (11) coming at even-strength.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Talking About The Loss on HNIC, Draisaitl, Sekera and Upcoming Games on The Lowdown with Lowetide

Joined Lowetide this morning to discuss the Oilers and what to expect in the next week.

Couple notes:

  • Lots of blame to go around for the loss on Saturday. My big concern was the amount of scoring changes the Oilers allowed against Calgary. It’s been happening way too often, but it’s not all on the defence.
  • Sekera is going to be fine. He plays the toughest competition and is doing well. The team gets a higher proportion of shot attempts and scoring chances when he’s on the ice compared to his teammates. He’s the least of our concerns right now.
  • Draisaitl has played very well over the last two games, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets sent down to Bakersfield once Eberle is back. Chiarelli talked about Leon learning the “200 ft game” as a center and how important the long-term development is for him.
  • That bottom six could use help, and I’d like to see how Lander does paired with Leon. That said, I think Draisaitl should be developed as a center in the AHL, where he would get top minutes and play in all situations.
  • Should be a fun couple of games this week against Philly and Pittsburgh. Both teams generate a lot of chances, but also give up a lot. Hopefully the Oilers can pull out a win and head into an extended road trip with a set lineup.

Assessing the First Month

Before the season started, I put together some high-level targets that I thought the Oilers should aim for.  Things like possession, shooting percentage and save percentage (all at even-strength) served as preliminary, high-level metrics that could be further explored as needed. I used the performance of the Oilers’ division rivals from around the same time last year to come up with these targets and made minor adjustments accordingly.

First off, a quick look at how they did in the first month compared to the targets I established.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The Pacific Division is Awful

Right now the Pacific Division is pretty pathetic. Six of the top eight teams in the western conference are from the Central Division. When it comes to adjusted Corsi For%, only LA and San Jose are in the top eight in the west. The rest of the Pacific division teams have so far been below average when it comes to possession and goals.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

So You’re Saying There’s a Chance?

My colleague here at C&B Scott Reynolds put together an insightful post yesterday comparing previous teams that mustered 6-7 points in the first 10 games and had goal differentials similar to what the Oilers have this season. The good news, as Scott found, is that teams have bounced back from poor starts to at least compete for the playoffs. But before holding out hope for the 2015/16 Oilers, I decided to look into some of the high level performance metrics including possession, shooting percentage and save percentage (at even-strength) for these comparable teams in their first 10 game segments (Source: War on Ice).

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Dipping into the Goaltending Numbers

One of the most important acquisitions this off season has been netminder Cam Talbot who was acquired for a package of draft picks in June. There was a lot of chatter among Oiler fans, probably since last December when the team went into a free-fall, speculating who the next goalie would be. Both Ben Scrivens and Victor Fasth faltered, forcing the Oilers to make a move to improve a critical part of the roster.

After ten games this season, I think most can agree that Talbot, along with Anders Nilsson, have given the Oilers stability between the pipes. The defence in front of them has struggled mightily, a trend that has continued from previous seasons, but Talbot has made some very timely saves, giving the team a chance to at least stay in hockey games.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.