Sharks Under McLellan II

ThorntonI recently started looking at some of the underlying numbers the Sharks posted with McLellan behind the bench, mainly to get a sense of what we can expect next year from the Oilers. Without a doubt, McLellan is one of the elite coaches in the NHL, leading San Jose to a lot of regular season success.

What we know so far is that his club’s have been strong possession teams that took a lot of shots. The other day, I also found that his teams blocked a lot of shot attempts against, which shouldn’t be surprising considering some of the strong two-way players on the roster like Marc-Édouard Vlasic and Joe Pavelski.

I also started digging into how often the Sharks had their shot attempts blocked. Having re-watched some of their games from last season, it became obvious to me that the Sharks love taking shots as soon as they enter the zone and look for second chances. They make a lot of short passes moving up-ice and really don’t let the opposition set up defensively, creating a lot of havoc.

Here’s a graph showing what percentage of the Sharks’ shot attempts (i.e., Corsi For) were blocked when the score was close during McLellan’s tenure. I also included the NHL average as well as the Oilers performance.

CorsiForBlockedScoreClose

What we can see here is that the Sharks were quite good at getting their shot attempts through. It could be that the team was good at setting up their plays and creating smart lanes to the net. It also confirms what I saw in some of their games: the Sharks were getting their shots in quickly before the opponent could set up, increasing their chances of their shot making it through.

On the flip side, you can see that the Oilers were brutal at getting their shot attempts through and were often one of the worst in the league when the score was close. This will be area that McLellan has to focus on, but it’s anyone’s guess if the current Oilers roster can handle the new attack plan.

I don’t think it’ll be as easy as just shooting more often. The plays that a team uses to advance the puck through the neutral zone and then gaining the zone will one of the critical factors. The good news is McLellan has a successful formula, but it’ll be up to him to deploy the right players at the right time to execute those tactics.

The SuperFan Podcast – Episode 1

Related Links

Finding the Superfan – The SuperFan

Looking Back at the 1996-1997 Oilers and the Golden Era – The SuperFan

Looking Back at the 2005-2006 Oilers Season – The SuperFan

Importance of Hockey Analytics II – Hockey in Society

The Progress of Martin Marincin – The Copper & Blue

SuperFan 2.0 : Exploring the produsage qualities of hockey fans – Sunil Agnihotri (2012)

Sharks Under McLellan

oilers-sharks-14-12-09aBringing in an elite level NHL coach is going to go a long way in turning this franchise north. The addition of Todd McLellan and his coaching staff, along with the continued development of the young core, is worth getting excited for heading into the 2015/16 season.

Over the past seven years, McLellan posted some very nice possession numbers, as the Sharks consistently out-shot their opponents and won a lot of regular season games. One thing to note is that the Sharks were a bit of a high event team when it came to shot attempts. In the last four years, the Sharks finished in the top four when it came to the total number of Corsi events (for and against) per 60 minutes at even-strength (score adjusted).

San Jose Sharks (Even-strength, Score adjusted)
Metric 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
CF% 55.1
(5th)
51.6
(11th)
54.5
(1st)
51.9
(9th)
51.4
(11th)
54.6
(4th)
51.5
(14th)
CP60 98.8
(27th)
104.9
(16th)
107.3
(13th)
107.9
(4th)
107.3
(8th)
109.8
(4th)
110.6
(3rd)
Shot Attempts Blocked 23.2%
(19th)
21.4%
(29th)
25.3%
(15th)
27.5%
(4th)
26.6%
(10th)
26.6%
(5th)
26.2%
(9th)

I don’t think this is too concerning since they would still win a lot of games  (except for the most recent year). What’s also worth noting is that the Sharks blocked a high percentage of shot attempts against, typically finishing in the top 10 league-wide.

Team - SA Blocked

What does it all mean?

What I’m thinking is that the Sharks block a high percentage of shots because they cut off passing lanes and forced teams to take weaker shot attempts that the defenceman anticipated. And when they’re on the offensive, they’re either shooting early or finding their shooters and getting as many pucks towards the net as quickly as they can.

Watching the Sharks beat the crap out of the OIlers every year, I’ve noticed that they never have a lot of pinching defenceman and quite often let their forwards shoot the puck on net as soon as they enter the zone. If McLellan brings along some of his set plays, we should see the centers take on a more prominent role and have defenceman playing, you know, defence. If McLellan had his players blocking a high percentage of shot attempts against, it’s likely because players stay in position and read the play.

The Oilers have historically been a high event team but for the wrong reason. It’ll be interesting to see how McLellan will generate shot attempts and which players he’ll rely on to drive the play. And if he is successful, we should expect the Oilers blocking a higher percentage of shot attempts than they have done in the past. It’s obviously a big part of McLellan’s game plan, so I’d expect to see it happen in Edmonton.

We know that the Oilers have really lacked some of the key fundamentals to being a decent possession team. A combination of poor roster construction (especially on defence) and weak coaching tactics have made the Oilers an easy team to play against. With McLellan behind the bench, we should see an improvement in the team’s possession metrics and (hopefully) see the results on the score sheet and standings. This will of course depend on how well the current group of prospects develop, especially when it comes to defence.

Curious to hear what others think and what tactics/plays we should expect next season with McLellan. This will likely be part one of a series of post as I dig into the numbers and get a better sense of McLellan’s coaching style. Feel free to leave a comment below or send me an email at sunilagni23@gmail.com.

Developing and Deploying Youth on Defence

There’s a good chance that the Oilers will have a lot of youth on defence next season. Both Oscar Klefbom (22) and Justin Schultz (25) will definitely be on the opening night roster. Darnell Nurse (20) and Griffin Reinhart (21) will be in the mix, while prospects like Jordan Oesterle (23), David Musil (22) and Brandon Davidson (24) hope to leave an impression as well. That’s a lot of youth pushing for roster spots on defence, something that Todd McLellan didn’t really have to deal with during his seven seasons as head coach of the San Jose Sharks.

Now this isn’t to say that McLellan has no experience with developing defenceman. Three players, in fact, were young and inexperienced during McLellan’s tenure in San Jose, and have since established themselves as regular defenceman: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Justin Braun and Jason Demers.  To get a sense of what McLellan might do with the Oilers defence this coming season, I thought it’d be interesting to dig into these three players to see how they were brought along and how well they performed under McLellan’s tutelage.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Should the Oilers pursue a veteran defenceman?

As it stands today, the Edmonton Oilers will start training camp with a mix of young, developing defenceman along with some established individuals. With Connor McDavid on the way, and an experienced coaching staff, it’s become apparent that the club has decided to move away from the re-build phase to one that involves competing for a playoff spot.  The management group will rely less on young prospects to carry the load, and hopefully find the right mix of experienced players and emerging talent to solidify the defensive unit.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Seriously, Mind the Gap

A couple of weeks ago, I expressed some concern with the depth the Oilershave at center for the upcoming season. As of today, it appears that the four pivots will be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid, Anton Landerand Mark Letestu. RNH, to me, is a legitimate top six centerman with all the potential in the world to be one the league’s best. He took a big step forward last season, posting some very respectable numbers, making expectations much higher this coming season. McDavid may or may not start at center, depending on how training camp goes, but he’s penciled in for now and will make some noise. Lander is another player who established himself as a NHL regular last season, but a lot of his points came on a very good powerplay under Todd Nelson. I’m not expecting a whole lot from Letestu, considering his history, so I’ll have to wait and see what exactly the Oilers saw in him.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Can Nikita Nikitin Bounce Back this season?

usa-today-8339663.0Without a doubt, the 2014/2015 season is one to forget for 29-year old defenceman Nikita Nikitin. After being acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets for a fifth-round pick last summer before his contract expired, and signing a staggering 2-year deal worth $9 million, Nikitin failed to establish himself as a top four defenceman. The Oilers had the right idea in bringing in a defender in his late twenties, allowing some of the prospects to continue developing in the appropriate leagues. But the price was steep for a player with just over 200 NHL games under his belt. And there were few signs that he would be a difference maker.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Racking Up the Frequent Flyer Miles

GettyImages-465725812.0Thanks to Dirk Hoag of On the Forecheck, we can see how many miles each team will be travelling this coming season. No surprise that the Oilers will be travelling quite a bit given their location in North America and the distance from most NHL cities. And of course, the eastern teams have an easier travel schedule as most of the cities are relatively close to one another along the eastern seaboard.

The Oilers will be travelling an additional 3,804 miles this season compared to the previous year. It’s over 9,000 miles above the average among the 30 NHL teams, ranking them second overall. It’s a little absurd, but that’s just the reality given Edmonton’s location and the league’s balanced schedule. Here’s how much they’ve traveled historically, and compared to the average.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Mind the Gap

GettyImages-463182820.0It’s been a busy summer for the Oilers as they’ve worked towards improving the team, specifically their defence as well as the goaltending. Both areas were glaring weaknesses last season so it should come as no surprise that GM Peter Chiarelli pointed it out in his introductory press conference, and then proceeded to wheel-and-deal this off-season. The additions of Cam Talbot and Andrej Sekera are good bets at this point, with more, hopefully, on the way to improve the club’s overall performance.

My concern now is the depth at the center position.

For the first time in a longtime, the Oilers are absolutely loaded down the middle with young, high end prospects like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, to go along with 22-year old Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and 24-year old Anton Lander, both of whom took big steps in their development last season. As of today, the line combinations for opening night could look something like this:

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Talking Oilers Defence on Lowdown with Lowetide

Had a chance to discuss the Oilers defence with Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260. We talked about my recent article at the Copper and Blue where I used passing data to assess the Oilers defence. Below is a link to the audio.

Couple notes:

.Many thanks to Al for having me on and the kind words. Always enjoy chatting with him.