Reality Check

coppernblue.com.full.54273The Edmonton Oilers are a professional hockey team in the National Hockey League. And as of this moment, they lack the talent, depth and cap space to compete for a championship this season and going forward.

After 55 games, the Oilers rank 13th in the western conference and 6th in the Pacific division with 53 points (24-26-5). They’ve been outscored 184-159, a goal differential of -25, which ranks them 25th in the league. At even-strength, they have scored 2.44 goals per hour and allowed 2.94 per hour – both rates being the seventh-worst in the league in their categories. And while the Oilers  have the 7th best powerplay in the league, scoring 8.49 goals per hour, it’s all wiped out by their penalty kill that ranks 30th overall, allowing 8.92 goals against per hour.

While the Edmonton Oilers remain only four points out of a wild card playoff spot, they have shown very little to indicate that they can compete in the western conference. If we look at how the Oilers compare to their counterparts, not only do their results rank poorly, but so do their underlying shot-share metrics, which are used to predict future goal-share.

The table below lists the 15 NHL teams, sorted by their current rankings in the western conference, with their even-strength results over the past 25 games of the season. This includes their overall record, points percentage (i.e., points divided by the total points available – factoring in the three point games) and Goals For percentage (GF%).

Included are each team’s Corsi For percentage (CF%), or shot attempts, which are used as a proxy for possession and Fenwick For percentage (FF%), or unblocked shot attempts, which are used as a proxy for scoring chances. I’ve also included for each team their Scoring Chances For percentage (SCF%) and High-danger Scoring Chances For percentage (HDCF%), as definied by Natural Stat Trick.

Also included are each club’s team shooting percentage (SH%) and team save percentage (SV%), along with PDO to give us a sense of how far off the team’s are from league average numbers.

WestStandings - 20190210.JPG

Some interesting stuff at the top of the standings, with Winnipeg posting a Corsi For% of 47.67% over their last 25 matches, and relying on some excellent goaltending to win games. But the focus here is below the cut-line where the Oilers are posting the worst shot-share numbers in the wild-card race and not exactly giving us any confidence that their future goal-share at even-strength will be above 50.0%. Team’s like St. Louis, Colorado, Minnesota, and even Arizona, can trust their process and tactics, and feel confident that their coaching staff is doing everything they can to influence their team’s goal-share. The Oilers on the other-hand aren’t doing enough to improve their odds of winning hockey games, and their recent results reflect that.

And while you might consider Connor McDavid to be an x-factor in all of this, the fact is that the Oilers can barely get above the 45.0% mark when it comes to shot-share metrics, even with the best player in the world on the ice. Over the last 25 games at even-strength, McDavid’s on-ice Corsi For percentage is 45.33%, and his on-ice Fenwick For percentage is 43.47%. He’ll still definitely produce points in these circumstances, but make no mistake, McDavid’s productivity and his contribution to winning games is being hindered by whatever the Oilers coaching staff is trying to do.

McDavid - FF60 - 25.png

Over the last three seasons, McDavid’s on-ice rate of unblocked shot attempts for (again, a proxy for scoring chances), has typically been between 45.0 and 55.0 per hour over rolling 25-game segments. These are well above league-wide averages among forwards, making it even more alarming to see how badly McDavid’s numbers have declined this season.

Knowing what we know about this team, their results, their roster construction and their lack of assets, it’s blatantly obvious that the Edmonton Oilers are not in a position to compete for a championship this season or next. The damage done between April 24, 2015 and January 22, 2019 has been significant, and has left the team with no options but to re-coup as quickly as possible the assets and skill they’ve lost.

If the Oilers intend on getting things on track for a championship, they need to leverage and optimize the upcoming trade deadline, which is only two weeks, or six games, away. With a few expiring contracts and a number of roster players who do not provide good value for their production, it’s imperative that management do everything they can to create a market for these players and acquire as many assets as they can for them.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

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Also posted at The Copper & Blue.

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