The Edmonton Oilers With and Without McDavid (Part III)

An area that the Oilers will need to address going forward is their scoring production when McDavid is not on the ice. The young captain is the offensive catalyst that drives play and elevates his team when he steps on the ice. But when he’s on the bench, there’s been a significant drop in the team’s goal-share at even-strength.

Heading into Tuesday’s night game against the Sharks, the Oilers had outscored their opponents 36-22 at even-strength with McDavid on the ice, which translates into a 62.07% goal share. Without him, the Oilers have been outscored 43-51, a goal-share of 45.74%. The Oilers do appear to have an okay proportion of the shot attempts (Corsi For%) without McDavid as they have a 50.51% share without him, and a 54.71% share with him. Corsi provides value here as it serves as a proxy for possession and predicts a team’s future goal share. When we look at the expected goals for percentage, which measures the quality of the shots generated and also predicts future goal share, the Oilers drop from a 56.25% share with McDavid on the ice to 45.71% share without him.

If we look at the rolling 10 game averages of the different metrics with and without McDavid, we start to see a pattern that should be of some concern for the team.

First up is a graph with the Oilers shot-share broken up into three lines: the team’s goal share with McDavid (blue), the team’s goal-share without McDavid (orange) and the team’s overall goal-share (black) (with and without McDavid).

mcdavid-wowy-cf

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

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