hockey

Covering Blots: Digging into whether Darnell Nurse has been good enough for the Oilers this season

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Defenceman Darnell Nurse has had a lot of highs and lows throughout his season (and career) with the Edmonton Oilers.

Early in the campaign, he posted some of the team’s worst on-ice shot-share numbers and goal-differentials. But by early December we saw his performance and results turn around after the coaching staff played him more often with Leon Draisaitl, who has had an MVP-level season. As the year progressed, Nurse made some great plays and contributed on the score sheet. But that would again be followed up with blunders in his own zone, leading to opponents sustaining pressure and generating scoring chances. His game has recently improved, which is great considering the playoffs are coming up. But it remains to be seen if he can continue playing at this level.

This all led me to a pretty straightforward question: is Darnell Nurse having a good season?

To determine if he meets the threshold of “good”, I produced some basic criteria for a defenceman that is being paid $9 million per year:

  • Must be playing regular minutes against the other team’s top competition at even-strength (5v5), and top minutes on the penalty kill.
  • Must have a positive impact on the team’s shot and scoring chance differentials at even-strength (5v5).
  • Must have a positive impact when playing with the team’s depth players, as in when McDavid and Draisaitl are on the bench.

There could be other criteria, but what I have above are things that correlate to scoring goals and winning games. It’s basically the bare minimum.

Ice-time and Usage

Nurse is currently averaging just under 23 minutes a game this season (in all situations), which ranks third among Oilers defencemen. And he ranks first in the average number of even-strength minutes (19 minutes a game). What’s interesting is that 25 percent of his even-strength minutes this season are against elite competition, according to the methodology used by Puck IQ. This is a drop from last season when Nurse played 30 percent of his minutes against top competition.

The table below shows a steady decline in Nurse’s proportion of ice time against elite-level competition (orange bars) throughout his career, as he was over 40 percent just three seasons ago. The 25 percent proportion he has this season would be one of the lowest in his career, indicating that the coaching staff is well aware of his deficiencies, and are actively trying to put him in a position to succeed.

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Another thing worth considering is the steady decline in Nurse’s minutes on the penalty kill. Nurse is averaging below two minutes a game this season, which is a significant drop off from the last four seasons when he was regularly on the top penalty-kill unit. The graph below shows his average ice time per season over the course of his career, and is a good indicator of the trust the coaching staff has in the player.

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Nurse’s Impact at 5v5

Below are Nurse’s relative-to-team shot-differential numbers by season. I tend to use Corsi, a proxy for puck possession, and Fenwick and Expected goals as a proxy for scoring chances.

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This is going to be the third straight season where the Edmonton Oilers have seen their shot and scoring chances numbers take a hit when Nurse has been on the ice.

Yes, he does play a lot of minutes and sees top competition. But as we saw above, those hard minutes are being reduced. He’s clearly not a player that can be relied on to drive play, and he’ll need to be with a strong defensive partner and high-end forwards as much as possible for him to provide value to the team at even-strength. Which leads to the next criteria.

Impact when playing with depth players

When the Oilers have Nurse on the ice with the depth players, so no McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers have posted some pretty poor performance numbers and results. Their Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage both drop down to 46 percent when the depth players are playing with Nurse, which, as mentioned above, is why the coaching staff was okay with getting Nurse away from them earlier in the season.

The good news is that the results have been good, with a goal differential of plus-four (goal share of 55 percent), but that’s been largely luck-driven. The team tends to play less often with the puck when Nurse is out there with depth players, so it’s hard to have confidence in these results over the long run.

Final Thoughts

While we sometimes see some great plays from Nurse and his name on the scoresheet, it’s hard to ignore his usage, performance and results over the course of the full season. Expectations are rightfully high for the player, and unfortunately, he’s not meeting some basic criteria that correlates with winning games. The hope is that he can play well into the playoffs, but it’s hard to have confidence when we look at the data over a full season.

Based on his salary and role on the team, you would expect Darnell Nurse to be one of the best defencemen in the league, though you could make the argument that he might not even be the third-best defenceman on the Oilers. That’s a problem for management to address this off-season.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, PuckIQ

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Drawbacks of the Edmonton Oilers having two five-man units

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I recently wrote about how the Edmonton Oilers have recently been getting a lot more out of defenceman Darnell Nurse, as his performance numbers and results have been significantly better than earlier this season. And it’s largely driven by the fact that he’s being deployed a lot more often with Leon Draisaitl’s line. Full article is at Oilersnation.

This had me wondering if deploying Nurse exclusively with Draisaitl’s line and continuing to deploy the Bouchard/Ekholm tandem almost exclusively with McDavid’s line actually makes sense. The results should be great for those two five-man units as there’s plenty of skill and talent there. But wouldn’t that make the rest of the Oilers roster easier to exploit at even-strength?

Looking at the on-ice data, it appears as though the Oilers have recently been exposed, making them an easier target for team’s with depth and skill spread across the lineup.

In the last ten games, without the McDavid/Bouchard/Ekholm set or the Draisaitl/Nurse set, the Oilers have posted the following numbers at even-strength (5v5):

  • Corsi for percentage: 40.74%
  • Expected goals for percentage: 37.24%
  • Goals for percentage: 40.00% (4 goals for, 6 goals against)

The Oilers have played 138 minutes without their two five-man units, which was about 28 percent of the team’s total time in the last ten games. Two concerns with that:

  • The star players are playing a lot more, likely because the Oilers coaching staff urgently needed to make some ground in the standings. I’d expect their minutes to taper off eventually as the season wears on and to stay fresh for the playoffs. But if the depth players are constantly getting outscored, who knows.
  • That’s a good chunk of time that another team could target and exploit, and make life difficult for Edmonton. The Oilers third and fourth lines do a decent job defending, but they generate and score a lot less.

What’s also interesting is how the team’s depth players (i.e., the team without their two five-man units) are impacting the team’s overall shot-share numbers (Corsi For percentage) as well as their share of expected goals.

This graph shows the Oilers Corsi For percentage, with score effects factored in (solid line), over rolling ten game segments. They were at one point one of the best teams in the league, hovering around the 55 percent mark. But it’s gradually declined closer to the break-even mark.

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And this graph shows the Oilers expected goals share, which is trending even worse. Sitting below 50 percent in the last ten games is a little alarming. And it wouldn’t be surprising if their actual results at even-strength start to slip in the coming weeks.

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I don’t think there’s a quick, internal solution here either. Having Nurse play more often with the third and fourth lines isn’t going to work as we know the numbers have been poor in those situations. Plus he’s playing some of his best hockey right now, and I doubt he’d want to play fewer minutes with the star players. My guess is the Oilers will need to give their third pairing an offensive boost, which the Oilers appear to be addressing by acquiring Alec Regula off waivers (draft profile here). It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out and if the third and fourth lines, along with the third defence pair, can improve their on-ice numbers at even-strength.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

The redeployment of Darnell Nurse is leading to some of his best hockey for the Oilers

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The Edmonton Oilers made significant progress in November and now have 32 points in 27 games—a points percentage of 0.593 that ranks seventh in the Western Conference and fourth in the division. Their first ten games of the season really set them back (4-5-1), as they were, at one point, 13th in the conference and only ahead of San Jose in the Pacific.

There are plenty of reasons for their resurgence, but one player in particular who has helped turn things around is defenceman Darnell Nurse. He’s been more noticeable recently (for good reasons) making some great plays on Saturday night against St. Louis and helping set up Corey Perry with a nifty pass for the opening goal.

Nurse had really been struggling early on this season, especially at even-strength (5v5). In 171 minutes over the first ten games of the year (up until October 30), he had a 25 percent on-ice goal-share (on the ice for three goals for and nine goals against). And he was posting some of the worst shot-share numbers on the team as opponents would more often outshoot and outchance the Oilers with Nurse on the ice. What really stood out in those first ten games was how almost every forward on the Oilers was posting better on-ice shot-share numbers when they were playing away from him (i.e., without Nurse on the ice), as Nurse’s performance was really dragging his teammates down.

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Since those first ten games, however, Nurse has been posting significantly better numbers with the team doing a better job controlling the flow of play and scoring chances with him on the ice. His on-ice shot-share numbers at even-strength are all above 53 percent and some of the best numbers on the team. The best part is that his actual results (i.e., goal-share/goal-differentials) have been excellent, as the team has posted a goal-share of 82 percent — nine goals for, two goals against with Nurse on the ice. That goal-share isn’t sustainable and will gradually decline, but his underlying shot-share numbers indicate that the Oilers are more likely to outscore opponents with Nurse on the ice if he continues to perform at this level.

Now this turnaround didn’t happen automatically, and it appears there have been some very strategic adjustments made by the Oilers coaching staff. There’s a lot of pressure on this team this season to win games and make a deep playoff run. And to also maintain the value of their players, especially those on heavy, long-term deals like Nurse. So, it behooves the coaching staff to recognize problems, find potential solutions to improve their odds of winning games and have the courage to carry through on them.

One solution to the Nurse performance problem has been more ice time with Leon Draisaitl.

As I had written about in late October, Nurse played a lot of his even-strength minutes with the depth forwards in the first ten games of the season – specifically the third and fourth lines. Of the 171 minutes Nurse was deployed for, about 35 percent was with Adam Henrique and 32 percent was with the fourth line (basically when McDavid, Draisaitl or Henrique weren’t on the ice). About 23 percent was with Leon Draisaitl and Nurse played the least often with McDavid’s line, as that top line has exclusively been deployed with the Evan Bouchard/Mattias Ekholm pairing – a five-man unit pretty much all season.

Since those first ten games Nurse’s deployment has significantly changed, with more of his time being spent with Draisaitl, and whoever is on the second line, and less time with the third and fourth lines. The table below splits Nurse’s season between his first ten games (up until October 30) and the last fourteen games (between October 31 and December 7). Note that Nurse did miss a few games with a head injury.

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What we see here is that Nurse’s overall proportion of ice time with Draisaitl has significantly increased from about 23 percent in the first ten games to just under 40 percent in the last fourteen games – essentially creating a second five-man unit for the coaching staff to deploy. Nurse’s proportion of ice time with Henrique has dropped from 34 percent to 26 percent. And his time with the fourth-line players dropped from 33 percent to just under 11 percent.

This re-adjustment of Nurse’s deployment makes a lot of sense as he’s now playing more often with a second line who he was performing well within the first ten games of the season. One of my findings back in late October was that while Nurse dragged the performance numbers of most of the forwards down, his numbers remained respectable with Draisaitl, Podkolzin and Arvidsson – the group that basically formed the second line. So far things are going well as Nurse is not only performing well in his increased minutes with Draisaitl and the second line, but also playing much better in the minutes with the depth players.

It’d be worth asking the Oilers coaching staff if this actually was a strategic plan to help Nurse’s performance numbers improve. And if players like Nurse, who are accustomed to playing with high-end players tend to play down to the level of their linemates. My thought is when a defenceman like Nurse is out with a fourth line, for example, they may be conserving their energy and risk-taking for when they get to play with higher-end linemates, but that’s something a coach or player can speak to.

For now, it’s interesting to see how a coaching staff has adjusted a player’s deployment, and potentially used data and underlying shot-share numbers to assist with decision-making. Recognizing deficiencies, identifying solutions, and having the courage to carry them out is critical for a team pushing for championship. Hopefully, there’s more to come – especially for a roster that hasn’t quite reached its potential yet.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Tracking the Western conference – As of November 30, 2024

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Much better results from the Edmonton Oilers this month as they moved from tenth in the west to seventh currently sitting with a points percentage of 0.583. They finished November with a record of 8-4-1, and ranked fourth in the league in terms of points percentage (0.654) only behind Minnesota, Toronto and Washington. What’s interesting is that their goal-differential during this recent stretch has only been even (28 goals for, 28 goals against). Considering their strong shot-share numbers, it probably should have been better. Could have also used some better goaltending. But all that matters for now are the points being accumulated, and the rise in the standings.

Below are the current even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

We’re starting to see teams fall into their places, just based on what their shot share numbers have been like. For example, Edmonton and Colorado had good shot-share numbers last month and ranked poorly. But things have turned around for both clubs in the last month, and they’ve gained ground in the west. And we’ve seen teams like Calgary and Anaheim who were getting outshot regularly but getting good results last month, start to crash down back to earth.

We’re also starting to see which teams have issues to address in net, especially those with championship aspirations. Edmonton, Colorado, Vegas and Vancouver may need to keep an eye on the goalie market, and it’ll be interesting to see which of them can turn things around.

Edmonton and Colorado also have their even-strength scoring issues to address, as both rank near the bottom the league when it comes to finishing chances. Colorado is also relying heavily on their special teams to bail their even-strength play out.

Also do wonder if we’ll see Winnipeg and especially Vegas fall in the standings, as both clubs have had issues controlling the flow of play, and rely heavily either on their goaltending (Winnipeg) or ability to finish chances (Vegas).

And I do think we’ll see Utah start to climb up. They’re posting solid shot-share numbers and have one of the best even-strength goal-shares in the league. The issue for them is that their special teams have been terrible. Their powerplay is generating very few chances and goals. And their penalty kill allows one of the highest rates of shots against, and is relying heavily on their goaltending to allow an average rate of goals against. If they can figure out special teams, they could be very good.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

  • Points-percentage (Point%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
  • Corsi for percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., corsi for/(corsi for + corsi against). This is used as a proxy for possession and is the best at predicting a team’steam’s future share of goals (GF%). (Source: Hockey Great Tapes – Draglikepull)
  • Fenwick for percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick for/(Fenwick for + aenwick against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill.
  • Expected goals for percentage (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot.
  • Goals for percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals for/(Goals for + goals against).
  • Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
  • Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against)).

Confidence levels

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The Edmonton Oilers currently rank 16th in the league with a 0.545 points percentage, and have been pretty mid at even-strength (5v5). Their goal differential has been steadily improving, but they’re currently at -3 (43 goals for, 46 goals against). They’re only shooting at 7.05 percent (26th in the league) and have a team save percentage of 90.25 percent (23rd in the league). Note that the league average shooting percentage over the last three seasons has been 8.55 percent and the save percentage has been 91.47 percent. More on that in a second.

The Oilers are currently posting some excellent shot-share numbers, near the top of the league when it comes to critical metrics like Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage. So in a perfect world, their current goal-share of 48.31 percent eventually reaches somewhere around 53 to 55 percent, which is around where they were last season and the prior three seasons. Getting there is going to require the team and save percentage bouncing back. But how much confidence should we have in one or both of those things happening?

Based just on what I’ve seen from the Oilers, I have a lot more confidence in the team’s shooting percentage turning around. They have the top end talent, they have some depth pieces who have a good track record of scoring goals. And they’ve been relatively healthy, but we’ll wait to see what the long-term prognosis is for Hyman and Arviddson. The goaltending on the other hand has been pretty suspect for a while now, and there’s been enough mediocre stretches to indicate that goaltending is never going to be truly elite. But are there numbers to back this up?

First, here’s a look at the Oilers cumulative team shooting percentage at even-strength this season and last season (2023/24). The gray line across represents the league average shooting percentage from the previous three seasons (2021-2024). What stands out here is that while the Oilers didn’t do a great job converting their chances early on last season, they eventually improved and were above league average rates for the most part. Not sure if the Oilers can replicate that this season, but with the talent up front, and a decent supporting cast, it’s more than likely.

Goaltending on the other hand had some issues last season, and the best they could ever reach was league average. Not a lot of times was the goaltending one of the league’s best last season, so it’s hard to expect them to steal games this year or go on a long stretch of high-end goaltending. Especially since it’s the same two goalies as last season. The most we can reasonably expect from Skinner and Pickard is league-average, and a lot has to break right even for that.

I do wonder what the Oilers front office is thinking and what they have more confidence in bouncing back: the team save percentage or the team shooting percentage? It’s clear both areas have cost them wins this season and there’s a sense that it’s the offensive side of things that have management more concerned. My thought is that the goaltending is what needs an upgrade, and hopefully soon considering the high expectations for the team.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Here’s what’s behind Jeff Skinner’s early-season struggles

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It’s been a tough start to the season for Edmonton Oilers forward Jeff Skinner.

In his first seventeen games since signing a one-year, $3 million deal with the Oilers in the summer, Skinner has scored three goals and made three assists, all at even-strength. His on-ice goal-differential at even-strength is currently -5 (6 goals for, 11 goals against), which translates to a 35 percent goals-for percentage that currently ranks second last among Edmonton’s forwards. Considering he’s played the sixth most minutes on the team (217) and ranks sixth in average ice time per game at even-strength (12.79), his results are a problem that’s hard to ignore.

Over the last few games, the coaching staff has started to sit Skinner more often at even-strength. In the last two games, Skinner has averaged less than nine minutes, which is about 17 percent of the Oilers total even-strength time.  That’s well below the previous fifteen games where he’s averaged about 13 minutes a game, and 26 percent of the Oilers total even-strength time. The table below shows Skinner’s proportion of ice time per game in blue and the actual ice time per game in orange.

A graph showing how Jeff Skinner's ice time and proportion of ice as an Edmonton Oiler has been gradually declining at even-strength.

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There are a couple of major issues with Skinner that have likely played a role in his decreased ice time.

One, Skinner just isn’t producing at the level and consistency that management was probably expecting from him. He’s scored three times on 44 shots so far – which is a shooting percentage of 6.82 percent. That’s well below the 10.98 shooting percentage he’s posted over his previous five regular seasons, and the 10.65 percent he’s posted over his fourteen-year career.  The Oilers are currently near the bottom of the league in terms of team shooting percentage (6.68 percent) and are relying on Skinner to help turn those even-strength results around.

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The other issue is that Skinner’s on-ice numbers at even-strength, relative to his team’s numbers, have been poor so far. Corsi (or shot attempts) and Expected Goals help us understand how well the team does at controlling the flow of play and out-chancing opponents with specific players on the ice. And it helps us uncover who could be helping drive play and opportunities for a team, and who might be dragging the team down.

Skinner would currently fall under this latter category as the team is posting an Expected Goals For percentage of 52.45 percent with him on the ice, which isn’t bad. But his team’s share of Expected Goals jumps to 57.98 percent when he’s on the bench. Below is a table with all of the Oilers’ forwards on-ice relative to team numbers, sorted by average ice time per game. A basic heat map is applied to each metric (green is good, red is bad) to give a sense of how each player compares to their teammates.

A table showing each Edmonton Oilers forward's relative to team numbers at even-strength this season.

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One issue with Skinner is that the team allows a significantly higher number of shots and chances against whenever he’s on the ice. For instance, without him on the ice, the Oilers allow about 23 shots against per hour. But when Skinner is on the ice, this rate jumps by about 25% to 30 shots against per hour. He’s one of the worst defensive forwards on the team, which isn’t overly surprising considering his previous teams have often allowed more shots when he’s on the ice. The difference in prior seasons was that he would help drive more offence and generate chances. But since he’s not having the same impact and the fact that his shooting percentage is down, he’s not providing a whole lot of value for the Oilers.

Worth noting that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is also posting similar on-ice numbers as Skinner at even-strength, as the team tends to see a lot of chances against when he’s deployed. And it should probably be addressed by the coaching staff, considering he gets a lot of time in the top six with the star players. But because Nugent-Hopkins is on the first powerplay and kills penalties and has a +1 goal differential at even-strength, his underlying issues are likely going to be overlooked. At least for now.

As for Skinner, it’s understandable why the coaching staff has recently cut his minutes. His defensive play this season has been an ongoing issue, and it’s not just a couple of bad plays here and there that have led to this situation. Hopefully, there’s a plan in place to squeeze as much value out of Skinner as possible. But there’s also the harsh reality that Skinner’s defensive play has been a long-term issue over his previous seasons. And considering his age and the fact that he’s played over 1,000 NHL games, it’s hard to expect his defensive numbers to improve anytime soon.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Bouncing back

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Scoring at even-strength (5v5) has been a major problem for the Edmonton Oilers this season. After 16 games, or about 20% of the regular season, the Oilers rank 28th in the league with a 6.84 percent team shooting percentage. That’s only ahead of San Jose, Detroit, Anaheim and Nashville.

Last regular season, the Oilers finished the year right around league average with a team shooting percentage of 8.81 percent, good for 15th in the league. They started the 2023/24 season just as poorly, posting an almost identical shooting percentage after their first sixteen games – only converting on 6.46 percent of their shots.

Below is a graph showing the Oilers cumulative shooting percentage over the course of last season (orange line). It took them a while to get going, but they finished the regular season well. And the shorter blue line represents the Oilers cumulative shooting percentage for the current regular season.

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With the talent level they have and the team’s dominance when it comes to controlling the flow of play and scoring chances at even-strength, it’s likely that the Oilers team shooting percentage gradually improves and stops costing them games. But there’s a couple issues that they’ll need to address to improve their odds of scoring more frequently at even-strength.

First, the team needs to reduce the amount of low-danger shot attempts and shots. There’s been a few too many games where it’s felt like the opposing goalie is putting on an all-star performance. But it’s largely due to the Oilers rate of low-danger shot attempts (38.93 per hour) and low-danger shots on goal (13.91), both of which are close to highest in the league (based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology). The Oilers are definitely a high-volume shot team, as they’re also good at generating higher danger chances. But when they do get those high danger chances, it’s like the opposing goalie is warmed up from all of the lower danger ones that they already faced and is making key saves.

The second issue for the Oilers to address is getting more shots from the forwards instead of the defencemen. So far this season, over 40 percent of their shot attempts and over 35 percent of their shots on goal are from their blueline, which is much higher than league average levels and the level they were at last year (refer to the table below). The team is about 5% higher than where they should be.

Proportion from defencemen (5v5) Shot attempts Unblocked shot attempts Shots on goal
League average (3 seasons) 34.3% 30.3% 29.6%
2023/24, Oilers 35.5% 31.0% 31.2%
2024/25, Oilers 40.1% 35.4% 35.3%

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Considering how much bigger and more skilled the goalies are, and how much tighter teams are playing defence, it doesn’t make sense to create shots from low-percentage scoring areas. We’re seeing a trend in shooters taking fewer shots, and making more east-west plays to create higher quality chances and improve their odds of scoring. Maybe it’s the lack of passing talent on the Oilers blue line causing this, or just the team getting used to one another after so many roster changes. But it’ll need to be addressed if the team wants to improve their shooting percentage – and start climbing back up the standings.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Related:

Slow start, sketchy goaltending and finding defence pairs

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Not the best start for the Edmonton Oilers, who currently rank seventh in the Pacific division with a points percentage of 0.400 (2-3-0), and 13th in the western conference. Early days of course, but what’s really stood out to me are the high profile losses.

After all the hype in the off-season about the team, the Oilers get crushed by Winnipeg on home ice in their season opener. Then they lose on the national stage on Hockey Night in Canada to Chicago. And then they lose to Calgary, of all teams, on home ice. The Oilers can rip off a long winning streak to make up for the lost points, but it’ll be hard to forget this start.

Goaltending has again been a factor in the team’s poor start to the season, as it ranks as one of the worst in the league in every game-state. What was especially alarming were some of the comments from Stuart Skinner after the first game where he talked about how fast the game felt and being unprepared. (Source: Edmonton Oilers)

I think that the game was a little too quick for me and I just wasn’t up to speed and that’s on me just in the way that I was playing. Maybe it was too much aggression on my part where I probably should have played, you know, read the game probably a little bit better.

Thought this was a bit of a red flag, and reflects poorly on the coaching staff who had plenty of time in training camp and the pre-season games to get everyone prepared – especially the goaltenders. Makes you wonder what the pace was like for the goaltending and if the coaching staff, from the head coach to the goalie coach, were aligned.

The other interesting comments regarding Skinner came from analyst, and former goalie, Steve Valiquette on the Real Kyper and Bourne show highlighting how poorly Skinner performs with chances on the rush.

We had four data scientists looking at all of our data this year. I really wanted to get to understand hockey better. And over the past decade we’ve identified now three predictors that lead to Stanley Cup success. You have to have strong special teams. You have to have settled offense at five on five. And you’ve got to have a strong odd man rush – and that’s for and against.

The area that Stuart Skinner really struggles with is the east to west game. Whether it’s at five-on-five in-zone or off the rush, his movement side-to-side is – to be fair, and it’s tough to say because you’re talking about the top 64 guys in the league – but he’s the worst of those 64. The nicest way to put it is he lacks confidence and he doesn’t get east to west well.

If that’s the case, there’s no wonder the Oilers coaching staff spent so much time last season reducing those rush chances against. And they’ll have to continue doing so, even with a lot of new players across the roster.

Speaking of which, below are how the skaters have done so far this season at even-strength (5v5). The tables are separated by position and sorted by ice-time. A simple heat map has been applied to show how each player compares with their own group.

First the forwards.

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The on-ice numbers mostly align with what I’ve noticed. Some of the more experienced, top six guys like Hyman and especially Nugent-Hopkins have been underperforming. I don’t think Nugent-Hopkins can function as a sole-center on a line any more, so I’d keep him with either McDavid or Draisaitl. The issue is that Draisaitl is also someone who needs to be on a line with a second centerman, so he can’t be on his own either. The Oilers will almost always have a line that other teams could exploit at even-strength.

The Oilers are getting decent minutes from some of the new additions like Arvidsson, Podkolzin and Skinner, as well as Henrique. The team is doing better with them on the ice, and the results should start to turn around. It’ll be interesting to see how the coaching staff deploys this group, and if they have the courage to experiment a little more.

And below are the on-ice numbers for the Oilers defencemen.

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The top pairing of Ekholm and Bouchard is quite solid and helping tilt the ice. And Kulak has been steady with whoever his partner has been. The concern remains with the second pairing as Nurse has continued to struggle, with the team more often playing without the puck when he’s on the ice. As I mentioned prior to the season starting, the rest of the defensive options have been depth players for the majority of their careers, so it’s hard seeing any of them move up the depth chart. None have shown the ability to help boost their defensive partner’s on-ice numbers, which is something Nurse will need for that second pair to be successful.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Couple thoughts ahead of a pressure-filled 2024/25 regular season

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It’s been a little weird seeing how much hype there is around the Edmonton Oilers heading into the season. They’re obviously in that championship contender category, coming off a deep playoff run this past spring. And they have the high-end talent that will help drive results.

I’m just seeing a few too many question marks around the roster, so I’m not as confident as the general public about the Oilers this season.

For one, I’m not sold on the goaltending as Stuart Skinner has had a lot of ups and downs over the course of his career. I view him as an average goalie, not someone who can steal wins like some of the other elite level goalies. And don’t get me wrong, average goaltending can be good enough. I just don’t think the Oilers did enough to mitigate the risk of his play falling off, like what’s happened to him early on in regular seasons. Pickard as a backup is fine, but can you trust him for an extended period in case Skinner needs time away? I’m not completely sold.

The other issue is around the third and fourth lines, which looks significantly slower than last season. I don’t like the idea of Henrique centering Janmark and Brown. And then a fourth line with two players over 37 years old. Hoping Podkolzin can make an impact, and you have Philp and Savoie as options down the road. But for now, that bottom six is a perfect target for opposing teams. I think you need some more speed and skill to be effective in those minutes. Keep in mind too – guys like McLeod, Holloway and Foegele posted some of the best on-ice shot-share numbers for Edmonton last season, and were a big reason why the bottom six was improving. It’ll be interesting to see if the team’s shot-share numbers at even-strength take a hit, especially when McDavid isn’t on the ice.

The Oilers top six is arguably one of the best in the league. But there’s a few guys that are at risk of regression. Hyman for one, likely won’t reach 50 goals again based on his career shooting percentage levels. Nugent-Hopkins was pretty quiet in the playoffs and has had periods throughout the last few seasons where his on-ice shot share numbers were lower than expected. I’m also tempering my expectations for Arvidsson whose skillset is very valuable when he’s healthy. Coming off a shortened season, you don’t know how quickly a player can get back up to speed – similar to what happened to Connor Brown last year. Draisaitl is also someone who I’ve always felt needs a centerman on his line to be effective, so I don’t know how well he’ll work with J. Skinner and Arvidsson. Skinner, while very productive, is also going to frustrate some with his defensive play. Expecting some line-tinkering early on in the year.

As for the blue line, I’m not quite sure what to expect. The team is taking a risk relying on Emberson, Stecher, Dermott and J. Brown to be regulars. Emberson has the most potential but lacks experience. Stecher, Dermott and J. Brown have a history of being depth guys at best, so it’s hard to imagine them taking on larger roles over an extended period for Edmonton. It’ll also be interesting to see which defenceman take on penalty kill minutes. Assumed Emberson and J. Brown were going to replace Ceci’s and Desharnais’ minutes. But now with Brown sent down, it might have to be Dermott.

It’s going to be a fascinating season for the Edmonton Oilers who have a lot of pressure on them to win a championship. And if things go sideways early on, it’ll be critical that the coaching staff, and potentially management, act quickly.

The Oilers need to avoid having bad start for the third season in a row

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The Edmonton Oilers head into the 2024/25 regular season with high expectations, and understandably so. Their group of forwards have two of the best players in the world in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, along with a good supporting cast. Their defence has some high-end talent in Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm. And the team is coming off a playoff run where they were one win away from a championship.

Plenty will need to go right for the team to make another deep run in the playoffs. But before even getting there, the team really needs to have a good start to the regular season, which is something they’ve had trouble with the last two years now. A poor start has many downstream effects, including having to overplay players in important positions, like goaltending, just to make up ground in the standings. And not being able to rest star players to keep them fresh for the playoffs. A good start can also increase their odds of winning their division and securing home-ice advantage for the post-season. Something that hasn’t happened since the dynasty years.

Recent history

Two years ago, the Edmonton Oilers started the 2022/23 regular season with ten wins and ten losses in their first 20 games, ranking 20th in the league with a 0.500 points percentage. They were outscored 66-72 in all situations and had the fifth worst goal-share (42.86%) at even-strength (5v5) getting outscored 33-44. And while their powerplay was one of the best in the league, all their goals were wiped away by their penalty kill that allowed the fourth highest rate of goals against.

And last season’s start was even worse. In their first twenty games, they had seven wins, twelve losses and one overtime loss. This had them 29th in the league with a 0.375 points percentage, and only three points ahead of San Jose in the Pacific division. They were outscored 66-74 in all situations, and 38-46 at even-strength. That’s a goal-share of only 45.24%, which had them 26th in the league. And they had the same issue on special teams where the powerplay was outstanding (+16 goal differential), but their penalty kill was erasing all their success (-15 goal differential). Things eventually turned around, but it was a massive lift.

So what were the factors that caused these poor starts for the Edmonton Oilers?

Goaltending

The Oilers goaltending has struggled out of the gate two seasons in a row. In the first twenty games of the 2022/23 season, their team save percentage in all situations was 89.57 percent, which ranked 23rd in the league and 10th in the western conference. And in the first twenty games of the 2023/24 season, their team save percentage was 87.11 percent, which was 31st in the league and dead last in the western conference. A lot of the problems were on the penalty kill, especially earlier in the 2023/24 season where despite the Oilers doing a good job limiting the rate of shots and chances against, the goaltending was terrible ranking 25th in the league with a save percentage of 81.82 percent.

Skinner has the starting role, but it’s critical that the Oilers have a solid backup option ready in case he falters like he has in the past.

Poor finishing at even-strength

In the early parts of both seasons, the Oilers as a team had a lot of trouble burying their chances. Two seasons ago, they started the season with a 7.02 percent shooting percentage, which ranked 31st in the league. And they started last season with a 7.58 percent shooting percentage, which ranked 25th.  League average shooting percentage over the last three seasons has been 8.55 percent, and the Oilers have been right around there with an 8.77 percent shooting percentage. Considering the talent level they have and the amount of money allocated to offensive players, their shooting percentage has to be better to start the season.

Which leads to the next factor.

Star players starting poorly

Last season, Connor McDavid had a rough start relative to his own standards – specifically at even-strength. McDavid didn’t look like himself, along with other teammates, likely driven by the fact that they started training camp earlier than normal, which resulted in injuries. McDavid himself missed a couple games and put up only eight even-strength points in his first 17 games – a point per hour rate of only 1.79. For context, McDavid has posted a rate just under three points per hour over the course of his career. So, this was exceptionally low relative to his career levels. His season did turn around soon after, and he went on to dominate the rest of the season. But it was a good reminder of how critical he is to the team’s success, and how difficult it is to replace his production when he’s not at 100 percent.

A similar issue had occurred the season prior when Leon Draisaitl struggled out of the gate in 2022/23. In the first twenty games that season, Draisaitl had only nine even-strength points, which translated to a points per hour rate of 1.76. That’s well below his career points per hour rate of 2.41 and the 2.51 he’s posted over the last three seasons. One contributing factor to his lack of production early that season was how often the Oilers played without the puck when he was on the ice. His on-ice share of shots and scoring were some of the worst on the team, with his Expected Goals For percentage sitting at 44.51 percent.

It took playing more often with McDavid to give those numbers a boost and at a production level closer to what we would expect from Draisaitl. Plus he needed to get healthier. Draisaitl was coming off a significant injury sustained in the playoffs that spring – so it was understandable that he would struggle. But again, it highlighted how important he is to the team’s early-season success and the lack of depth on the roster that season.

Thoughts

It’ll be interesting to see how the Oilers start the year after making a deep run in the playoffs and turning over a significant number of players on the roster. The hope is that everyone is healthy, and that training camp has given the group enough time to implement their tactics and build familiarity with one another. Goaltending will need to be league-average, along with the team’s ability to finish their chances. And if the star players can start off strong, that should alleviate some pressure and improve the team’s odds of winning the division.

It’ll be on management and the coaching staff to not only monitor and evaluate the team’s progress, but also address issues that come up as quickly as possible. Without those risk mitigation plans in place, a poor start can potentially derail a team’s championship aspirations.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.