Edmonton Oilers

Thoughts on the Expansion Draft

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brandon-davidson

In case you missed it, I joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk all things Oilers, including the SWEEP of the Flames, the upcoming California trip and options at the trade deadline (LT has a great list of potential targets). Clip starts around the 17:25 mark.

 

We also discussed the expansion draft and who the Oilers should be protecting. The Vegas Golden Knights will be joining the Pacific division and announcing their roster on June 21, 2017. Vegas will be drafting 30 players, one from each NHL team, and will follow a set of rules as outlined over at NHL.com.

* Clubs will have two options for players they wish to protect in the Expansion Draft:

a) Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender

b) Eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goaltender

* All players who have currently effective and continuing “No Movement” clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who to decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits).

* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits).

If I’m the Oilers:

  • I protect the following players: Talbot, Sekera, Klefbom, Larsson, Davidson, RNH, Eberle, Draisaitl, Lucic.
  • Excluded from the expansion draft: McDavid, Nurse, Benning, Caggiula, Slepyshev and Puljujaarvi.
  • I leave the following players unprotected: Pouliot, Maroon, Letestu, Lander, Kassian, Khaira, Fayne, Reinhart, etc.
  • Source: Cap Friendly

Now before I go on, I need to make one thing clear: the whole discussion around the upcoming expansion draft, and which players are worth protecting and which players are worth letting go is all dependent on a lot of ifs and maybes. We can make our lists today, in January, but it can easily be turned upside down if the Oilers start moving out assets and addressing their current (and future) needs. You can protect 7-3-1, but if the Oilers find a decent right-shot defenceman this week, then maybe you protect four defencemen and only four forwards instead of seven. You can protect four defencemen, but if one is moved to shore up the center depth, then you’re moving to the 7-3-1 list. My point is, we can speculate all we  want, but there’s no use getting too attached, especially with a potential playoff-berth.

The NHL really is just a competition to see which clubs can put together the best roster, under a set salary cap, to win the Stanley Cup. The expansion draft is obviously for a new team to enter the league, but its also a disruption to the long-term goals of the existing teams. Recognizing this, the NHL is really going easy on the 30 teams, setting rules that more or less cushion the blow.

But to make Vegas somewhat competitive, the NHL is trying to make as many defencemen available to them as possible. We know how hard it is to draft, develop and/or acquire talent for the backend. There are plenty of forwards in hockey that you can plug in and out of your line up, within different combinations and allocate ice time to. Defencemen on the other hand are at a premium in today’s NHL. They aren’t so easily shuffled around a lineup, and have to be ready to play regular minutes against various levels of competition.

There’s a clear incentive for teams to protect only three defencemen. Doing so, you get to protect seven forwards, which is kind of excessive when you think about it as a lot of teams have young players in their top six that are exempt anyways. But hey, you get to protect more of your precious assets. If you want to protect more than three defencemen, now you’re cutting into the total number of assets you can protect.

With that in mind, I’m leaning towards protecting four defencemen, and yes, leaving guys like Maroon and Pouliot, both of which I value highly, unprotected.

I’ve written plenty on Pouliot, who I view as a very good top six NHL forward that can contribute on offence and has meshed well with an array of forwards.

There’s a stronger case, however, to be made in protecting Maroon from the expansion draft.

  • He’s currently playing with McDavid and Draisaitl on the top line. In 164 minutes this season, the trio has outscored the opposition 10-4 at 5v5 (71.43% goal-share) and has a Corsi For% of 55.31%. (Source: Corsica Hockey)
  • He’s been a positive influence on any center he’s played with when it comes to their share of shot attempts. Here’s what I wrote on Maroon’s ability to drive offence back in November 2016 – The Driver (The Copper & Blue)
  • He’s on a value contract this season and next season, getting paid $1.5 million per season.

As much as I like this player, I see two issues. First, his shooting percentage is at a career high 19.28% this season. It’s not likely that he can sustain this, but I guess anything is possible if he continues to play with McDavid.

Season Team GP TOI G A P P/60 iSh%
2012/13 ANA 13 118.37 2 1 3 1.52 10.00
2013/14 ANA 62 636.35 10 15 25 2.36 12.35
2014/15 ANA 71 839.6 7 18 25 1.79 6.93
2015/16 ANA/EDM 72 752.58 7 12 19 1.51 8.33
2016/17 EDM 49 661.96 16 4 20 1.81 19.28

The other issue is that when Maroon’s contract expires at the end of next season, he’ll be 30 years old and likely looking for dollars and term to carry him into retirement. There is evidence that players who play a physical game tend to taper off as they age past 30 (Source: Hockey Graphs), so there’s a very real chance that what we’re seeing from Maroon today is his prime. It might be a smart move to protect Maroon today, but it might not be the right decision for the Oilers long term goal of winning a championship. With McDavid, Nurse and Draisaitl expected to get heavy, long-term contracts in the near future, it may not make sense to allocate dollars to a 30 year old, complementary winger, likely on his downswing.

Maroon’s value has never been higher, and likely won’t be higher in the future. The Oilers could potentially trade him in the summer to address their needs on defence, but it’s unlikely considering his current status on the roster.

In my opinion, the Oilers would be better off protecting defenceman Brandon Davidson, who played very well for the Oilers as a bottom four type player last season. Assessing the team’s possession numbers from last season, we knew that the team did better with him on the ice than without him, which is expected from someone playing in a depth role. But we also saw him gradually take on tougher competition, with his contributions being missed when he was injured. Couple pieces I wrote last season:

Davidson is only 25 years old, and is signed for this season and next at a very reasonable $1.425 million per season. The NHL cap system favors and rewards the owners, as young players who are drafted and developed by a team remain under team control,  right through their prime years. Davidson is on a value contract today, and could very well be a long-term value contract as well. Defencemen are harder to find than forwards, with the supply never quite meeting the demand, especially around the trade deadline when teams prepare for the playoffs.

The end goal is to win the Stanley Cup, and to do that the team needs to establish an extended window, at least a five year term, where they can be legitimate, championship contenders. Investing in young players, especially defencemen, who can be on team-friendly, value contracts is going to be key for the Oilers. The decisions they make at the deadline and for the expansion draft have to be geared towards winning the Cup.

 

Talking Oilers on the CBC Edmonton News (TV) + Facebook Live

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sunilcbc20170117

Joined Adrienne Pan on the CBC Edmonton News this evening to talk all things Oilers, including the playoff race they’re in and the upcoming schedule. Segment is here, and starts around the 12 minute mark.

We also did another Facebook Live session following the newscast, which can be viewed on the CBC Edmonton Facebook page. We covered a bunch of topics including the Oilers chances of making the playoffs, Eberle’s performance this season, potential trade deadline options, impact of the expansion draft, plus more. A big thank you to everyone who sent in questions! Full clip below.

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fcbcedmonton%2Fvideos%2F1360036207371553%2F&show_text=0&width=560

Talking Oilers, defence pairings and trade deadline on The Lowdown with Lowetide (TSN 1260)

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk about the past week, including the overtime win against the Flames. We touched on the potential defence pairings, with and without Larsson, and what areas of the roster the team needs to focus on as the trade deadline approaches. Big week ahead with three home games against Arizona, Florida and Nashville, and a Saturday night tilt in Calgary.

Segment starts around the 20 minute mark.

Below are the various defence combinations that the Oilers have rolled with this season at 5v5, sorted by Corsi For% (score and venue adjusted). If the Oilers insist on playing Russell, they have to pair him with Sekera as that’s who he’s best with. Klefbom-Benning looks like a good tandem so far. And I’m also a fan of Gryba-Davidson as the third pair. (Data: Corsica Hockey. Ideal pairings for me: Klefbom-Larsson, Sekera-Benning, Davidson/Gryba/Nurse.

P1 P2 TOI CF%
ANDREJ.SEKERA MATTHEW.BENNING 196.36 56.74
DARNELL.NURSE MATTHEW.BENNING 113.2 55.87
ERIC.GRYBA OSCAR.KLEFBOM 59.93 54.86
ERIC.GRYBA BRANDON.DAVIDSON 79.91 54.07
DARNELL.NURSE ERIC.GRYBA 181.95 52.87
ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 512.05 51.94
KRIS.RUSSELL ADAM.LARSSON 137.56 47.95
ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 416.69 47.82
KRIS.RUSSELL MATTHEW.BENNING 50.19 46.34

This past weekend, I also looked into how the OIlers are doing when it comes to generating shots and what the key drivers/drags have been: Volume Shooting – The Copper & Blue (2017, January 14)

And just a heads up that I’ll be on the CBC Edmonton News to chat about the Oilers and the playoff race on Tuesday night. Following that segment, we’ll be doing another Facebook Live session on the CBC Edmonton Facebook page to talk Oilers and take questions from the community.

Volume Shooting

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Early in his first season as head coach of the Edmonton Oilers, Todd McLellan emphasized the value of volume shooting, and its importance in generating offence.

Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone. (Source)

Taking a look at the rate of shot attempts (i.e. Corsi For/60) the Sharks generated when McLellan was behind the bench, we see that they were always above the league average and typically ranked in the top five.

Season Corsi For/60 League Rank
2008/09 57.87 7th
2009/10 58.80 6th
2010/11 61.91 1st
2011/12 60.22 5th
2012/13 59.74 5th
2013/14 64.78 1st
2014/15 60.60 5th

It appears that the Oilers have gradually made progress when it comes to generating shot attempts under McLellan, as they currently rank 12th in the league, 5th in the Western Conference, with 57.18 shot attempts per hour at even-strength. The top five teams: Boston, Toronto, Montreal, Pittsburgh and Washington.

volume-shooting-cf60teams

As you might guess, one of the key drivers for the team’s rate of shot attempts includes Connor McDavid. When he’s been on the ice this season, the team has generated 62.66 shot attempts per hour, which is just below what Boston, who ranks first in the league in this metric, is generating. Without McDavid, the Oilers generate 54.55 shot attempts per hour, which is below league average, and would rank them 19th in the league. Also worth noting that the Oilers top line of McDavid, Maroon and Draisaitl is currently generating 71.12 shot attempts per hour.

If we break out the Oilers rate of shot generation over rolling 10-game segments, we see that they had at one point been generating over 60 shot attempts per hour, but steadily declined starting around the end of November. As I mentioned in my previous article, I suspect this has to do with two things. One, the team lost Darnell Nurse, who was showing progress in his offensive game, to a long term injury at the end of November. And two, the team began giving more and more ice time to Kris Russell, who provides very little to a team’s offence. More on individual players later.

volume-shooting-rolling-10-game-averages

In the graph above I have the team’s rate of shot attempts, but I’ve also added two additional lines: one for the rolling 10-game averages of when McDavid is on the ice (orange line), and one for the rolling 10-game averages of when McDavid is off (blue line). The team is having issues this season where they’re relying heavily on one line, more so than other teams with elite players. Knowing his ability to escalate the play of his team, and the importance of having depth to win a cup, we’ll need to know how the rest of the roster is doing without McDavid on the ice.

What we can start to do is look at each player this season, and how the team does when it comes to generating shots with and without them on the ice. I’ve ranked the table below by Corsi For/60 Rel, which tells us how the team does with the player on the ice, compared to how the team does when they’re on the bench. So when Patrick Maroon is on the ice, the Oilers generate 65.65 shot attempts per hour. Without him, that number drops by 11.77 shot attempts.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The Edmonton Oilers With and Without McDavid (Part III)

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An area that the Oilers will need to address going forward is their scoring production when McDavid is not on the ice. The young captain is the offensive catalyst that drives play and elevates his team when he steps on the ice. But when he’s on the bench, there’s been a significant drop in the team’s goal-share at even-strength.

Heading into Tuesday’s night game against the Sharks, the Oilers had outscored their opponents 36-22 at even-strength with McDavid on the ice, which translates into a 62.07% goal share. Without him, the Oilers have been outscored 43-51, a goal-share of 45.74%. The Oilers do appear to have an okay proportion of the shot attempts (Corsi For%) without McDavid as they have a 50.51% share without him, and a 54.71% share with him. Corsi provides value here as it serves as a proxy for possession and predicts a team’s future goal share. When we look at the expected goals for percentage, which measures the quality of the shots generated and also predicts future goal share, the Oilers drop from a 56.25% share with McDavid on the ice to 45.71% share without him.

If we look at the rolling 10 game averages of the different metrics with and without McDavid, we start to see a pattern that should be of some concern for the team.

First up is a graph with the Oilers shot-share broken up into three lines: the team’s goal share with McDavid (blue), the team’s goal-share without McDavid (orange) and the team’s overall goal-share (black) (with and without McDavid).

mcdavid-wowy-cf

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Talking Oilers on The Lowdown with Lowetide (TSN 1260)

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk all things Oilers, including the demotion of Puljujaarvi and Gustavvson to the AHL. Full clip is below, starting around the 40 minute mark.

Couple notes:

  • The new top line of Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl is absolute gold right now. In 66 minutes together so far this season, they’ve outscored the opponent 6-1 at 5v5 and have a 67% CF% (adjusted). This line should stick together, but also allow for Draisaitl to center another line as needed.
  • Another line I’d like to see get an extended look this season is Pouliot-RNH-Eberle. Heading into this season, they were a 53% CF line, but were outscord 26-28. Part of that was the team’s shoddy goaltending (89% save percentage). It obviously wouldn’t be a popular move, considering the funk all three have been in. But I’d like to see the coaching staff have more patience with their forwards, as there’s been very little stability in terms of line combinations all season. I’m convinced the head coach doesn’t like the roster he has.

 

Checking in on the Oilers Pacific Division Rivals

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Forty games into the 2016/17 season, and the Oilers are holding a playoff spot, ranking third in the Pacific with 47 points, good for fifth in the Western conference. The team is coming off of a big win against a good Boston club last night, with Maroon, McDavid and Talbot leading the way. Up next is a back-to-back set against the Devils, who will have played the night before, and the Senators.

With the team in a playoff race now, it’s worth checking in on how the Oilers Pacific division rivals are doing in terms of goals and the shot metrics that predict future goals. The three California teams are going to be the ones to beat, but if the Oilers can get consistent even-strength scoring from the lines that don’t feature McDavid, they could potentially challenge for that third spot.

Here’s what the Pacific Division looks like today. I’ve included each team’s record, along with their points percentage, which is the points divided by the total points available (Source: Hockey Reference).

Team Games Record PTS PTS% GF% CF% XGF%
San Jose Sharks 39 23-14-2 48 0.615 52.98 52.03 53.07
Anaheim Ducks 40 20-12-8 48 0.600 43.16 44.72 41.48
Edmonton Oilers 40 20-13-7 47 0.588 52.38 51.10 49.00
Calgary Flames 40 21-17-2 44 0.550 47.16 49.59 47.14
Los Angeles Kings 39 19-16-4 42 0.538 50.55 54.07 53.03
Vancouver Canucks 40 19-18-3 41 0.513 46.05 47.63 46.57
Arizona Coyotes 38 11-22-5 27 0.355 49.17 49.45 51.51

What we can also do is look at how each team is doing over 10-game, rolling segments this season. What we do here is take games 1-10, find the average of the metric, then take games 2-11, find the average, games 3-12, and so on. Doing so can highlight trends and can give us a better perspective of how a team’s entire season has been going.

I’ve focused on even-strength play (5v5), as it evaluates a team in a natural game setting where coaches are rolling their lines, trying to score and defend, and is where the majority of the game is played. These numbers are also score adjusted, based on Corsica Hockey’s methodology. This way, we eliminate score-effects, as team’s that trail in a game start to take more risks and generate more shots, while team’s that lead in a game tend to play safer, and generate far fewer shots. Without adjusting, team’s that trail a lot, like the OIlers have in the past, start posting better shot-shares, for example, mainly because they’re taking more risks trying to tie a game. So adjusting for score-effects puts more emphasis and value on the events that occur in close game situations and gives us a more accurate assessment of a team. More on adjusted metrics can be found at Corsica Hockey.

pac-rollingcf

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Talking Oilers on the CBC Edmonton News (TV) + Facebook Live

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sunilcbc20170103

Had a fun experience today talking Oilers with Adrienne Pan on Facebook Live over the lunch hour. We talked about the team, their playoff aspirations, and took questions from the CBC Edmonton Facebook community. A big, big thank you to everyone who sent questions in!

Also, a big shout out to the team at CBC for putting it all together. We’re looking into doing more in the future.

Below is the full session via Facebook.

 

I also made my bi-weekly appearance on the CBC Edmonton news in the evening. Link is here: www.cbc.ca/i/caffeine/syndicate/?mediaId=846947395526 (clip starts around the 8:55 mark).

Backup link

What’s Going on with Jordan Eberle?

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Jordan Eberle is in a bit of a funk right now. After 37 games, the winger is tied for third on the team with 25 points (8 goals, 17 assists), but the majority of those points have come on the powerplay, as he only has 12 points at even-strength. Considering his history, and that he’s getting top six minutes with the best players on the team, his production should be much higher.

Since players don’t get the same amount and quality of ice time (i.e., some get more offensive opportunities than others), we can look at how efficient a player is at getting points in the time that they get. When it comes to points per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time, Eberle currently ranks 11th among 15 forwards on the team who have played at least 100 minutes this season with 1.40.

Season GP TOI G A P Points/60
2010/11 69 941.31 12 17 29 1.85
2011/12 78 1044.52 23 31 54 3.10
2012/13 48 693.51 12 15 27 2.34
2013/14 80 1151.03 17 21 38 1.98
2014/15 81 1228.93 18 23 41 2.00
2015/16 69 972.86 16 15 31 1.91
2016/17 37 514.04 3 9 12 1.40

Looking at his career numbers, we see that 1.40 points per 60 is well below his expected level. Since entering the league, Eberle has regularly finished in the top three on the Oilers when it comes to this metric, so it’s pretty odd to see him ranked so low.

eberle-p60

Knowing his individual production is off, we can next look at how the Oilers as a team have done with and without Eberle this season. Below are the five metrics I’ll be using.

  • Corsi For% (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the Oilers generated (i.e., Corsi For/(Corsi For + Corsi Against). This is used as a proxy for possession and can predict a team’s future share of goals.
  • Fenwick For% (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the Oilers generated (i.e., Fenwick For/(Fenwick For + Fenwick Against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill. It can also predict a team’s future share of goals, slightly better than Corsi.
  • Scoring Chances For% (SCF%) – The proportion of all the scoring chances (as defined by Corsica Hockey) that the team generated and allowed that the Oilers generated (i.e., Scoring Chances For/(Scoring Chances For + Scoring Chances Against),
  • Expected Goals For% (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot. This has been found to be a better predictor of future goals than Corsi and Fenwick. (Detailed explanation can be found at Corsica Hockey)
  • Goals For% (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the Oilers generated (i.e., Goals For/(Goals For + Goals Against).

Here’s how the team has done across those five metrics with and without Eberle this season.

eberle-on-ice

Here we see that across four of the five metrics, the Oilers are a better team with Eberle than without him. For instance, of all the shot attempts (i.e., Corsi) that happen, for and against, the Oilers get 53.07% of them with Eberle on the ice, but that number drops to 50.50% when he’s on the bench. The problem for Eberle is that when it comes to the team’s share of goals, the Oilers are currently taking a hit as they’ve been outscored 17-19 (a goal-share of 47.22%) when he’s on the ice. When he’s on the bench, the team has outscored the opponents 51-44 (a goal share of 53.68%).

Goals, and the share of all the goals, are obviously the most important thing, but they don’t do a good job of predicting future goals. That’s why we look at the shot share (i.e., Corsi/Fenwick) as well as the team’s share of expected goals. The team is outshooting opponents with Eberle on the ice and are getting more quality shots, so we can hope that the actual goal-share will eventually start to align with the metrics that predict future outcomes.

Continue reading →

Eberle and Hall and Stats and Meaning

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Bob Stauffer of 630 CHED tweeted this out a couple days ago regarding Jordan Eberle and former Oiler Taylor Hall. My initial reaction was that it was missing some important context that would make it more clear to readers. But my initial guess was that it was implying that both players are in a bit of a funk.

Beyond the whole “is Eberle being traded for a second-pairing defenceman?” question, I got asked a few times “what does this actually mean?”, as in what are these stats telling us?

So here goes. Feel free to question or expand in the comments.

Points

Hall has 23 points this season. 13 have come at even-strength (498 mins), which translates to 1.86 points per 60 minutes of ice time. Using a per-60 rate, at even-strength, we can see how efficiently players use their time in a natural game state as we know that not everyone gets the same amount and type of ice time.

Hall’s current scoring rate is below his career rate of 2.32 between 2010/11 and 2015/16. But he still ranks 3rd on the Devils this season among 14 forwards (minimum 100 minutes played) only behind Zajac and Cammalleri.

Of Eberle’s 23 points, 10 have come at even-strength (419 mins), which translates to 1.32 points per 60 minutes of ice time. That’s below his career rate of 2.19 between 2010/11 and 2015/16. Eberle sits 12th on the team among 15 Oiler forwards this season, ahead of Lucic (!), Pouliot and Caggiula.

Goals

Individual points are important. But so too are the number of goals a team scores and allows at 5v5 when a player is on the ice as this impacts the standings.

When Hall has been on the ice at 5v5 this season, the Devils have scored 15 goals, but allowed 18. So of the 33 total goals scored (for and against), the Devils have a goal-share of 45.45%. When Hall is not on the ice, the Devils have been outscored 24-29, a goal-share of 45.28. Basically, the team is getting outscored with and without Hall. The Devils as a team have a goal-share of 41%, only ahead of Colorado. Brutal.

When Eberle has been on the ice at 5v5 this season, the Oilers have scored 16 goals, but allowed 19. So of the 35 total goals scored (for and against), the Oilers have a goal-share of 45.71%. When Eberle is not on the ice, the Oilers have outscored their opponents 51-46, a goal-share of 54.26. So the team is getting outscored when Eberle is on the ice. And they fare much better with him on the bench. Strange, considering he’s a skilled top-6 forward, who has played a lot with McDavid.

Goals matter for obvious reasons, but they don’t do a good job of predicting future goals. That’s where the shot (Corsi) data comes in.

Corsi (i.e., shot attempts, proxy for possession, predicts future goals)

The Devils are one of the worst teams when it comes to their share of shot attempts, sitting 26th in the league with 47.27%. When Hall’s been on the ice this season, the Devils have been outshot by their opponents 375 to 381 at even-strength. So of the 756 shots (for and against), the Devils have a shot-share of 49.60% with Hall on the ice.

When Hall is on the bench, the Devils have been outshot 635-775, which is a shot-share of 45.04%. The team is better with him than without him. But the Devils are not likely to outscore their opponents if they can’t outshoot them.

The Oilers are currently 11th in the league with a shot-share of 51.06% at even-strength. With Eberle on the ice, the Oilers have outshot their opponents 511-459, which gives the team a 52.68% share of the total shot attempts. Without Eberle this season, the Oilers have a 50.37% share of the total shot attempts, having outshot opponents 1,077 to 1,061. So the Oilers have done better with Eberle when it comes to their share of shot attempts, but it hasn’t translated into a better goal-share. What gives?

PDO

PDO is the team save percentage + the team shooting percentage when the player is on the ice. This gives us a sense of how lucky or unlucky a team and player might be. (Great interview of Brian King, the inventor of PDO, over at The Oilers Rig). PDO should equal 100, as team’s on average stop 92.5% of the shots against, and convert 7.5% of shots taken into goals at even-strength. As Bob tweeted, both Hall and Eberle’s on-ice PDO, as individuals, are around 98.

The Devils rank 26th in the league when it comes to the team PDO sitting at 98.17. Their team save percentage is 26th (91.44%), and their team shooting percentage is 24th (6.73%) – both metrics are below league average. When Hall is on the ice, the team’s save and shooting percentages align with the team average (6.67% team shooting, 91.96 team save percentage). The Devils are a mess of a team right now, Hall is a bright spot and over time (if he stays healthy) we know he can be a driver for them. (This topic deserves more time and analysis, but I’ll focus on Eberle for now.)

NHL: Nashville Predators at Edmonton OilersThe Oilers rank 10th in the league, sitting at a PDO of 100.32. Team save percentage (92.55%) and team shooting percentage (7.76%) are right around the league average. When Eberle is on the ice, the team save percentage stays the same, right at 92.72%. The shooting percentage on the other hand, takes a dip with Eberle on the ice, dropping down to 6.04%. Eberle’s personal shooting percentage (the proportion of his own shots that turn into goals) at 5v5 is sitting at 4.84%, a significant drop from his career shooting percentage prior to this season, which sits at 13.19%.

Here’s how Eberle has done year over year. His shooting percentage has been pretty consistent through his career with his current 4.84% shooting percentage being an anomaly.

Season Individual Shooting%
2010/11 9.76
2011/12 18.25
2012/13 11.43
2013/14 12.32
2014/15 13.74
2015/16 13.33

Takeaway

Expect Eberle to convert more of his shots into goals this season. And don’t expect him to be 11th on the team in points per 60 at even-strength by the end of the season.

The team is getting a higher share of the shot attempts with him on the ice, and we know he’s capable of scoring at this level. It should be a matter of time before things get back to normal for him.

Data: Corsica Hockey