Comparing Winning Streaks

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As a fan, I’m pretty excited to see the Oilers put together a four game winning streak. It doesn’t happen often, so we might as well enjoy the run for as long as we can. Seeing the emergence of Leon Draisaitl and Brandon Davidson, as well as some outstanding performances from Taylor Hall is giving fans some hope that this might be the turning point.

But before we talk about “playoffs” (I think that’s how you spell it), there are some glaring issues that I hope the Oilers can remedy. The team continues to get out shot on a regular basis, with the game against Buffalo being the only exception. Anders NIlsson has played exceptionally well as the starting goalie, but it’s hard to expect him to play at a high level for the rest of the season.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Analytics Roundtable on TSN 1260

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If you’re interested in analytics, Jason Gregor hosted a roundtable on TSN 1260 featuring Lowetide, Darcy “Woodguy” McLeod and Michael Parkatti. The group discussed some of the key metrics, how they’re applied, and what some of the limitations might be. Below is a link to the audio.

 

  • I’ve always been interested in the metrics that have been derived from analytics such as shot shares, Corsi and PDO. So it’s always great to hear that more people are interested in it and are raising new questions to consider. Digging into the numbers is a big part of being a modern-day fan. It reflects the curious nature of human beings, pushing the knowledge and information that surrounds the game of hockey.
  • For me, numbers are  especially useful when confronted with bogus hockey information and speculation. Years ago, we would hear about trade rumors for instance and often take things for face value. Now, we can quickly dispel some of the bad information by knowing things like salary information and on-ice data like time on ice. It’s important to consider that this additional layer of analysis can be misleading if taken out of context. This is when individuals have to take an active role in critically assessing whatever information is presented.
  • And just to be clear, this type of analysis isn’t for everybody. If analyzing the data and metrics doesn’t enhance your enjoyment of the game, don’t worry about it. The numbers really are a way to get into the game and supplement some of the discussions we have on a day to day basis as fans. The best way to make use of the data is to come in with questions and be willing to expand your scope of knowledge and understanding. Analytics really is a continuous process and should never result in a final product.

http://livestream.com/accounts/1488160/events/2833378/player?width=560&height=315&autoPlay=false&mute=false

Thoughts on the Oilers: Winning Streak, Fayne’s Struggles, Goaltending + Radio Hit

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Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 on Monday morning to discuss the Oilers. Link is below.

Playoffs?

I’d like to think the Oilers have a chance of making the playoffs, but I know in reality they’re a ways away. Without a doubt the Pacific Division is awful, making the division matches all the more important. But the club is still posting some horrible underlying numbers that tell me this 3-game win streak has been a bit of a fluke.

The Oilers have moved up to 22nd in the league when it comes to score adjusted Corsi with 47.8%. Worth noting that since November 1st, the Oilers are 16th in the league (49.0%), so there has been some progress (War on Ice). The problem is that the Oilers are still allowing a lot of shots (29.6 shots against/60, 24th in the league) and scoring chances each game (27.4 against/60, 24th in the league), putting a lot of pressure on their goaltending which has thankfully been good to average lately.

Complete Win

The win against the Sabres had to have been the Oilers most complete win this season. They won the possession battle, got more scoring chances than the opposition, and limited the amount of shot attempts against from the slot (Natural Stat Trick, War on Ice). Below is a diagram of the shot locations courtesy of DTM About Heart. A legend for the diagram can be found here.

These diagrams typically aren’t flattering for the Oilers, so I had to bookmark this one.

Fayne

Without a doubt, Mark Fayne has been struggling this season. He’s not the quickest guy, but I don’t think that’s his biggest issue. What I’ve noticed is his hesitation when it comes to making shot attempts. He’s last on the team when it comes to the proportion of individual on-ice shot attempts, which might lead to the forwards taking more shots and spending less time crashing the net for rebounds.

Having said that, Fayne does a nice job moving the puck out of his own zone, with his passes often leading to shot attempts and zone entries last season. I compiled the data from Ryan Stimson’s passing project over at The Copper & Blue earlier this year. A few weeks ago, Jonathan Willis collected some microstats on the Oilers defence, which also demonstrated Fayne’s ability to make zone-exit passes. Make no mistake, Fayne is a legitimate top 4 NHL defenceman who, despite struggling in McLellan’s system, can be a positive contributor on an NHL club.

Three Scoring Lines

Everything would have to go right if the Oilers were to ever get three (!) scoring lines. The emergence of Draisaitl and the chemistry between Yakupov and McDavid can have Oilers fan hoping for three legitimate lines. The pairs that McLellan could run with are Hall-Draisaitl, RNH-Eberle and McDavid-Yak. Then you’d have to hope that all stay healthy and wingers like Purcell, Pouliot, Korpikoski, maybe even Khaira, can produce at a respectable clip. The other issue to consider is the amount of money invested in some of the wingers and if it makes sense for the Oilers to shift those dollars to the defence core. Eberle is the obvious candidate to trade away, and Purcell will be off the books soon. The problem is, it’s hard to get too invested in the idea of three scoring lines when the defence is what’s in need of an overhaul and (likely) a heavy off-season investment.

Recommended links

Are the Edmonton Oilers Actually This Bad? – OilersNation

Anders The Giant Nilsson – The Oilers Rig

Korpikoski vs The Nuge – Oilers Nerd Alert

Oilers No. 12 Prospect – Jujhar Khaira

 

Old Man Strength

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The bottom six has been getting a lot of flack for their overall play lately. Anton Lander and Mark Letestu haven’t produced at a level most of us were expecting. Lauri Korpikoski has been inconsistent. And the rest of the group has been a revolving door as the team deals with injuries and call-ups.

But one player who should not be lumped with the depth players that are struggling this season is 34 year old Matt Hendricks.

 I’ll admit, I was very critical of the move when MacTavish acquired him for Devan Dubnyk in January 2014. Really, the Oilers should’ve sent Dubnyk to the minors on a conditioning stint, similar to what the Leafs recently did with Jonathan Bernier. Instead, they sent away a player that they had spent years developing, and who posted very good numbers in the three years leading up to his struggles, for an aging, over-priced winger. I still hate this trade. But I have to admit, Hendricks has shown well this season and remains the lone bright spot in the bottom six.
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The Oilers and High Danger Scoring Chances

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A few weeks ago, I wrote about how the Oilers were having trouble with high-danger scoring chances (HSC), and how it would be critical for the team to not only limit those, but find a way to generate them. It really stemmed from the loss at home against the Capitals when it seemed that every one of the goals scored were from the slot. The Oilers allowed 13 scoring chances from a dangerous part of the ice that game and paid for it dearly.

After 26 games, the trend continues. The Oilers currently rank 28th in the league when it comes to HSC For%, sitting at 44.5%, ahead of only the Rangers and Panthers. Todd McLellan has mentioned a few times now how important it is to crash the net and find those second chances. And despite the team increasing their volume of shot attempts, they haven’t been able to score nearly as often as they should. The slot area is where 50% of the goals are scored from, with teams averaging about seven high-danger scoring chances per game. The Oilers aren’t anywhere near that.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Hall to the Rescue

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The Oilers are struggling mightily at even-strength on this current road trip as the club has only scored two goals, both of which came from Iiro Pakarinenagainst the Red Wings. The top six has been ice-cold over the past three games with only Teddy Purcell notching an assist so far.

In the most recent game, Todd McLellan reunited Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle with Benoit Pouliot, which was a fine idea considering the success they’ve had in the past. This allowed Taylor Hall to stay with Leon Draisaitl, with Teddy Purcell serving as the second winger. There’s obviously some hesitation splitting up Hall and Draisaitl, as the two have demonstrated some good chemistry and the ability to generate scoring chances. The problem is the team isn’t scoring and something has to change for the remaining two games in Pittsburgh and Toronto.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Decisions Looming on Defence

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Defenceman Justin Schultz is expected to make his return to the lineup during the current road trip after missing 12 games due to a back injury. Over the course of those 12 games, the club has shown some improvement, but remains at the bottom of the league with only 15 points (as of Wednesday evening).

The team is coming off of disappointing losses to the Capitals and Blackhawks this past week, games in which the Oilers controlled play for stretches and had good chances. What stood out, for me at least, has been the improved play of the defence, which has traditionally been a weak spot for the club. There are still some shaky individual performances, but for the most part, the team appears to be suppressing shots better, and limiting the scoring chances against.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Thoughts on the Oilers defence, improved play, Hamonic + Radio Hit

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Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 on Monday morning to discuss the Oilers. Link is below.

 

Couple thoughts:

  • It sounds like Schultz will be back this week, but I’m not sure where he would fit. Sekera-Nurse has been good and neither has a history playing with Schultz. Klefbom was his partner late last season and earlier this year, but they’re a hot mess in their own zone. I’d rather Klefbom stick with Fayne who has been playing a lot better as of late. I’d stick Schultz on that third pairing with Davidson, but slot him in strategically when the club is in the offensive zone and on the powerplay.
  • Since Schultz left the team with a back injury, the Oilers have allowed five fewer shot attempts against per 60 (CA/60 55.7 with Schultz, 52.0 without him). I thought the team would suffer offensively, but they actually improved (47.7 CF/60 with Schultz, 53.5 without).
  • Regarding Hamonic, I wouldn’t be surprised if he isn’t moved until the deadline when GM’s are pushing for playoff spots. He’s a great defenceman, but I don’t think the Oilers have the assets to acquire him. Long Island obviously wants a defenceman, and I can’t imagine the Oilers dealing Nurse or Klefbom. If there’s a third team involved that needs a winger, I could see the Oilers moving Eberle or Yakupov to finalize a trade. Hamonic is a great defenceman, but I don’t know if he’d be considered elite at this point. That contract though might be worth throwing in a first round pick to land.
  • That loss against the Capitals definitely stings, but we’ve seen games like that before over the past few seasons. The biggest problem for the Oilers is playing the next game after a performance like that. If they can beat the Hurricanes (who are terrible this year), then I might feel better about the loss.
  • The Oilers have an adjusted Corsi For % of 51.4% in the month of November, which is a big improvement from their first month (48.0%). The issue I’m seeing is that they aren’t generating enough high danger chances, and when they do get them, they’re not converting (last night was a prime example). Still a ways away from contending for a playoff spot, but the team has looked a lot better compared to the last few seasons.
  • Honestly did not think Leon Draisaitl would produce at this rate. And I really didn’t think he would hold his own as a center. He’s had some outstanding games like the one against Pittsburgh, but I don’t think we need to fret about dealing away a center. Leon hasn’t established himself just yet, so RNH, who has taken on the best competition on a nightly basis, should not be expendable at this point.

 

Recommended links:

How hard is it to find good goaltending? – Hockey Graphs

Dreamland Whoa Whoa – Black Dog Hates Skunks

Trading the Nuge: Pump the brakes – OilersNation

What’s Going on with Mark Fayne?

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I’ve been somewhat perplexed by both the coaching staff’s handling of the veteran defenceman as well as the public perception of Mark Fayne. By eye, he has played reasonably well, good enough to play regular minutes for the Oilers. Fayne has had a history of being a serviceable player, establishing himself in New Jersey before being signed by the Oilers in 2014. He’s in his prime, can play against the oppositions best players and shows well by the majority of the performance metrics.

A quick glance at his underlying numbers confirms what I think of him. He’s not the most offensively gifted player, but the team tends to have the puck when he’s on the ice. This season, the Oilers have received  a higher proportion of scoring chances with Fayne on the ice, and they even get a higher proportion of the high danger chances. He’s definitely improved from last season, but keep in mind we’re only 19 games in.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Young Guns up Front

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Without a doubt, the Edmonton Oilers are absolutely loaded up front with youth and talent this season. Hall, RNH, McDavid, Draisaitl and Yakupov are all 24 or under, giving this team plenty of hope for the future.

I thought it would be interesting to look at what proportion of the team’s total ice time (among forwards) the young players (24 and under) are getting this season  and compare it to the rest of the league. Below is a graph that has two bars for each team. The  blue bar is the proportion of total ice time at even-strength, and the red bar is the proportion of goals scored. The teams are ranked by ice time proportion (Source: War on Ice)

YouthDeploymentForwards

So at the top, we see that Florida, Buffalo and Edmonton lead the league in the proportion of ice time given to young players.  And all three teams are getting a decent share of goals from their young players, which is a good sign that the young guns getting ice time are earning their keep.

Moving down the list, you see some interesting stuff. Fourth on the list in terms of ice time for young forwards is Ottawa. But unfortunately, this specific group of forwards aren’t scoring goals (only 29% of their forward’s total).

Detroit on the other hand doesn’t give as much ice time to young forwards compared to other teams, but their young guns are producing (63.6% of the team’s total goals, ranking them 3rd in the league). That’s a pretty nice situation to be in.

I was surprised that Toronto, who is in a development year, is not giving a lot of ice time to young players, and subsequently, not getting much in terms of goal scoring. They have been wise in letting some of their top prospects (Marner, Nylander, Dermott) develop at the appropriate level. But you have to wonder when they’ll bring in additional pieces to add to their young cluster.

You can make a case for some of the other teams near the bottom, as they’re in that window where their once-prospects are all in their primes together and have a chance to win a cup (Montreal, Pittsburgh). But I think teams, regardless of their situation, should strive to have prospects developing with the team, in preparation for the future.

One other thing to note is how goals scored at even-strength are distributed by age this season.

GoalsbyAge

Here we see a the young prospects (22-24) doing well, with those prime players, around 27, contributing significantly. There’s a few different reasons for why the distribution if like this, so if you have any thoughts, let me know.

The one thing I take from this post is how exceptional the Oilers forward group can be in the very near future. They’re young, getting ice time and contributing on a nightly basis so far. Here’s hoping this current cluster of youth can stay together and avoid any significant injuries.