Typically wait until after game four before doing a check-in on a series, but there’s currently some pretty pressing issues for the Edmonton Oilers.

The club is currently trailing in the second round against the Vegas Golden Knights, who have a done a pretty solid job keeping the Oilers shots and scoring chances to a minimum at even-strength (5v5). After three games, the Oilers have posted a Corsi For percentage of 51.67% , but an Expected Goals For percentage less than 45% – second worst among the second-round playoff teams. And that’s a big reason why they’ve been outscored 4-9, and have the worst goal-share in this group of eight (30.77%).

What’s even more alarming is how the Oilers have performed without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice at even-strength, which is about 55% of the team’s total ice time. They’ve been outscored 1-5, driven largely by their expected goal-share of 39%. That’s a big drop off from the first round, when the Oilers took advantage of a Kings roster that lacked significant depth. If these results continue, the Oilers may need to separate McDavid and Draisaitl more often, which would reduce the team’s ice time without one of their stars down to around 30-35%.

What Vegas has done really well in this series is not just limit the overall chances against. But when they do allow shots at even-strength, they’re often from the sticks of Oilers defencemen, which are typically from low probability scoring areas. Compared to the regular season, and especially the first round, the Oilers forwards are getting a lower proportion of the shots on goal, which the Vegas coaching staff has to be thrilled about considering the talent level up front that they’re slowing down.

In the 2022/23 regular season, the Oilers as a group generated 2,090 shots on goal at even-strength, with 68.7% coming from the sticks of forwards. That’s pretty close to the league average of 70.1%. Against the Kings, the share of shots from forwards was 72.8% as the Oilers did a really good job controlling the flow of play and generating higher quality chances.

Vegas seems to have figured something out, as the Oilers as a whole have only generated 63 even-strength shots in the first three games – a rate of 27.17 per hour which ranks seventh among the eight second-round playoff teams. Compare that to their numbers against Los Angeles, when the Oilers generated the second highest rate of shots with 34.19. And in the regular season, the Oilers ranked 9^th in the league with 31.83.

Of the 63 shots the Oilers have been able to muster against Vegas, 42 have been from forwards – a share of 66.7%. In their game one loss, the Oilers forwards took 57.1% of their teams total shots. And in the game three loss, they took 61.5% of the team’s total shots. In the game they won, the Oilers forwards had a much higher proportion of shots, something the club really needs to replicate to improve their odds of winning games. The table below breaks down the proportion of shots from the forwards by game, with the orange line representing the Oilers regular season average.

So far in this second round, defenceman Darnell Nurse is currently tied for first on the team in shots with seven (8.49 shots per hour), something Vegas has to be happy with. Nurse only had eight shots total in the Oilers six-game series against the Kings, a rate of 4.09 shots per hour – half of what he’s producing in the current series. In the regular season, his rate of shots per hour was 6.50 per hour. For whatever reason, Nurse is shooting more which is going to be a problem considering he hasn’t been a significant scoring threat; his personal shooting percentage was 4.50% this season.

If the Oilers want to improve their odds of winning games against Vegas, they need to do a better job of creating scoring chances at even-strength. Something that won’t get done if the offence continues flowing through the blueline. Hopefully the coaching staff is aware of this and can make adjustments – either tactical or deployment. If not, they’ll need to rely heavily on the powerplay to bail out their failures at even-strength.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Related:

• The Edmonton Oilers v. The Vegas Golden Knights: A Tactical Preview – Oilers Nation (2023, May 2)
• Previewing the Oilers vs Golden Knights (2023) – The SuperFan (2023, May 2)

Should be an entertaining second-round series between the Oilers and Golden Knights. Vegas took care of the Jets in five games, out-scoring their opponents 15-6 at even-strength and had strong underlying shot-share numbers to support their results.

Vegas might be at risk of some regression as their shooting percentage and save percentage were higher than what they posted in the full regular season and in the final twenty five games before the playoffs. Vegas finished the season with a 8.85% shooting percentage and a 92.14 save percentage.

Worth noting that Vegas’ special teams were pretty poor in the first round. The powerplay scored only three goals in about 25 minutes of powerplay time – a rate of 7.06 goals per hour, which ranked tenth among the playoff teams. The penalty kill allowed five goals, and the second highest rate of goals against in the playoffs. And while their goaltending was poor shorthanded (similar to Edmonton), the skaters also didn’t do a very good job defending, allowing the highest rate of shots and chances against in the playoffs. Considering the Oilers have been so dominant on the powerplay, and doing a good job suppressing shots on the penalty kill, the Oilers definitely have a competitive advantage here. That is of course if their goaltending holds up when shorthanded.

A quick glance at Vegas’ skaters, their on-ice performance numbers at even-strength and what the results have been. The table below is separated into forwards and defencemen, and sorted by ice time.

The top end forwards appear to have been in good form against the Jets, with Stone and Stephenson leading the way with eight points each. Really looking forward to seeing how Eichel does as well. Do have to wonder if some of the players are due for a little regression as some are posting on-ice PDO’s above 110.

The bottom of the Vegas roster looks a little suspect and is something the Oilers should be able to exploit. Without Stone or Marchessault (who I’m using as a proxy for the top two lines) on the ice, Vegas posted a Corsi For percentage of 47% and an Expected Goals For percentage of 49%. This is in about 42% of the team’s total ice time. But due to some outstanding goaltending, the depth players outscored the Jets 4-1.

Looking forward to seeing how the Oilers coaching staff handles match-ups against a deeper, more talented roster. And if they’re willing to play McDavid and Draisaitl on separate lines. As I wrote in my series review, McDavid is due for some scoring as his personal shooting percentage is well below his career levels. And it’d be a massive gain if he finds success at even-strength with linemates other than Draisaitl.

The one area that I’d be a little concerned with is the Oilers goaltending, and if Skinner can bounce back from some shaky moments in the first round. Among 22 goalies who have played at least 30 minutes in this years playoffs, Skinner ranks 17th with an 89% save percentage in all situations and a -2.88 goals saved above average. Brossoit on the other hand ranks 9th in save percentage (91.5%) and 10th in goals saved above average (+1.25). Both netminders have been solid at even-strength, but are struggling on their penalty kill.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Related:

• The Edmonton Oilers v. The Vegas Golden Knights: A Tactical Preview – Oilers Nation (2023, May 2)
• Golden Knights present serious challenge for Oilers – TSN (2023, May 1)

Pretty entertaining first round series against the Los Angeles Kings who didn’t quite have the tactics, depth or goaltending to overcome the Edmonton Oilers. The Kings managed to get some positive results earlier in the series, but eventually dropped three straight games.

The Oilers were pretty dominant at even-strength (5v5) over the course of the series, controlling the flow of play as reflected by their 54% Corsi For percentage, and consistently out-shooting and out-chancing the Kings. Their expected goal-share was second best among the teams in the first round (second only to Vegas), and they were able to translate this territorial dominance into actual goals. The Oilers team save percentage ranked fifth in the playoffs, while their shooting percentage ranked sixth.

Here’s how the Oilers skaters performed in the first round, sorted by their time on ice.

The Kings did a pretty good job slowing down McDavid, who finished the series with goal differential of zero. His main success occurred playing with Draisaitl, who he was re-united more regularly with after game three when the Oilers were trailing in the series.

Below is a breakdown of how the Oilers performed with and without McDavid and Draisaitl. The captain is definitely due for a breakout as his personal shooting percentage (5v5) so far has been 6.67%, significantly lower than his regular season shooting percentage of 15.31% and his career shooting percentage of 13.73%. Last year in the playoffs, it was 14.29%. His career shooting percentage in 37 playoff games prior to this year is 11.95%.

And while the 11-7 strategy is working great for the Oilers coaching staff and was a key driver for their series win, it does increase the workload for the Oilers top players. Currently, McDavid, Kane and Draisaitl are top three in the league among forwards when it comes to 5v5 ice time per game (all over 18.5 minutes per game). It’ll be interesting to see if this continues, and if we see any sort of performance drop off or injury issues due to the workload.

Worth noting how well the depth players, including McLeod, Foegele, Ryan and Kulak performed, due in some part to having Draisaitl mixed in with them as-needed to create some mismatches against the Kings depth. Over the six game series, the Oilers posted a positive goal differential (4 GF, 3 GA) without either of McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice. The teams Corsi For percentage was 51.62%, while their Expected Goals for percentage was 55.92%.

The concern I have with the roster is the play of the other top six players, and if they could either (a) be trusted with more minutes against other top lines or (b) at least play and produce with McDavid, which would allow him and Draisaitl to be on separate lines, spreading the offence. Most of the remaining playoff teams are deeper than the Kings, so the onus really has to be on guys like Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman and Yamamoto, and I guess Bjugstad, to improve their overall play. In the series against the Kings, the Oilers allowed the highest rate of shots and chances against with them on the ice. The coaching staff had to revert to the McDavid/Draisaitl option when things got tough, which says a lot about how the rest of the top six was producing. I also wouldn’t mind seeing McLeod get some more responsibility, as he’s done well in the past against tough competition in small doses.

Quick note on special teams. The Oilers powerplay was again outstanding, scoring 9 times in the series, but they also allowed one shorthanded goal and seven more on the penalty kill. So their special teams was only +1 in goal differential against the Kings. A lot of that had to do with the goaltending, which despite playing behind a group that allowed the sixth lowest rate of shots against shorthanded, posted a 75% save percentage that ranked second last in the league (only ahead of the Kings).

Plenty of work ahead with some issues to address.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Tied at two-games apiece, a quick glance at the Edmonton Oilers performance and results in their first round series against the Los Angeles Kings and what their strengths and weaknesses have been.

Starting with even-strength (5v5), the Oilers have done everything they can to increase their odds of out-scoring the Kings and winning games. They’ve controlled the flow of play for the majority of the series, spending more time with the puck as reflected by their 58% Corsi For percentage, and getting a higher proportion of the total shots and scoring chances. The Oilers are currently generating the highest rate of shots on goal in the playoffs with 38 per hour, while keeping the Kings under 28 shots per hour (ranking 11th among the sixteen playoff teams). For context, the Oilers and Kings generated around 32 shots per hour in the last twenty-five games of the regular season, which had them in the top ten league-wide.

Using Natural Stat Trick’s methods of calculating expected goals (which uses shot type, shot location and historical scoring data to determine the probability of a shot attempt becoming a goal), the Oilers – in theory – should have scored twelve even-strength goals in the first four games. But because the Kings goaltending has been solid, ranking second in the league with a save percentage of 94.94%, they’ve only mustered seven goals. Had the Oilers converted 9.09% of their shots against the Kings into goals like they did over the full regular season, instead of the 5.06% shooting percentage they’re sitting at right now, they’d easily have scored twelve, and I highly doubt three of the four games would have gone into overtime.

Worth noting too that the Oilers goaltending at even-strength has been good enough this playoff series. posting a 93% save percentage so far. Again using the expected goals method from Natural Stat Trick, the Kings should have scored nine goals based on the scoring chances they’ve had – but they’ve only scored seven. Part of that is missing some of their better scorers like Kevin Fiala for the first three games of their series. But the Oilers goaltending has been decent as well, ranking 6th in the post-season, just behind Boston.

As for special teams, the Oilers powerplay has continued to amaze, generating the highest rate of of shots and scoring six goals in the four games – a rate of 25 goals per hour which is almost double what they posted in the regular season. Worth noting that despite having the puck for the majority of the series, the Oilers have somehow drawn the second lowest rate of penalties in the post-season (3.19). The Kings who took the thirteenth highest rate of penalties in the regular season have apparently changed their ways – amazing, really.

The Oilers have really needed their powerplay to be incredible as their penalty kill has struggled against the Kings, largely because the goaltending has been poor when shorthanded. The Kings had one of the best powerplays in the league this regular season, and the Oilers skaters are doing everything they can to limit their chances. Edmonton’s penalty kill has so far only allowed 21 shots shorthanded, a rate of 46.7 shots per hour, which is the sixth lowest among playoff teams and well below the rate the Oilers were at in the regular season (58.31). Unfortunately, the goaltending is currently posting a 76.19% save percentage, which ranks 13th among playoff teams. If the Oilers struggle to score at even-strength, the powerplay is going to need to bail them out. But if the penalty kill is going to bleed goals like this, it won’t matter. The goaltending needs to be better.

Back to even-strength. It’s really important to emphasize how well the Oilers are performing with and without their star players. In 81 minutes so far without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice – or about 38% of the team’s total time – the Oilers have posted a 57% Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage. As we’ll see below, players like McLeod, Foegele and Ryan are really taking advantage of the Kings third and fourth lines. The problem of course is that the Oilers depth players haven’t scored a goal (0 GF, 3 GA) despite having the puck more often and getting a greater share of the shots and scoring chances. Unless Draisaitl, who has been on the ice for every Oilers goal scored this series, is getting double-shifted with the depth players, there isn’t much happening on the score sheet.

Below is a breakdown of each player’s on-ice numbers at even-strength in the first four games, sorted by time on ice. I’ve split the table into forwards and defencemen and added a simple heat map to show how each player compares relative to their teammates.

The concerns I would have for the Oilers is their defensive play, and some of the breakdowns when things get chaotic in their own zone. We’ve seen the Kings sustain pressure in the Oilers zone a few times now largely because of the mistakes the Oilers were making. Really have to wonder if this group can keep it together for an entire post-season, and if they can cut-down their recurring mistakes especially by some of the defencemen. There really aren’t any other options for the coaching staff, as this is the group of seven defencemen we’re going to be seeing the rest of the way.

There should also be a little concern with the Oilers depth players. The Oilers posted great numbers without McDavid or Draisaitl in the regular season, but they’ve gone completely dry in this first round. We know the top six group will find ways to score, especially if Draisaitl and McDavid remain healthy. The problem is that a lot of the depth guys posted career individual shooting percentages in the regular season, so this might be when we see the regression. And their decline isn’t completely surprising. Over the full course of the season, the Oilers shooting percentage without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice was 8.34%. But in the last twenty five games, it had dropped to around 7.01%.  This is hockey, so things can turnaround with a lucky bounce or two. But the coaching staff may need to tinker with the line combinations to get something out of the depth (i.e., non top-six) players.

Also worth keeping an eye on the goaltending situation and if the coaching staff has some doubts with Skinner’s play and begins to develop more confidence with Campbell – especially after his performance in game four. Skinner has had a solid season, but his numbers did take a slight dip near the end of the season. He’s always been right around league-average, but with the workload he’s had in his rookie season it’s not totally surprising to see him struggle. The workload of course was driven by the fact that the coaching staff didn’t have as much confidence in Campbell, especially as the season winded down and the Oilers were pushing for a higher playoff seed.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com

Last check-in on the western conference before the 2023 playoffs begin next week.

The Oilers finished second in the Pacific division, going 18-2-1 since my last check-in at the end of February. They’re easily one of the best teams in the league, and should be considered one of the favorites coming out of the west this post-season.

Couple reasons for optimism.

The Oilers have consistently posted some of the best shot-share numbers in the league, ranking highly when it comes to the rate of generating shots and scoring chances as well as preventing them. I think that’s something that tends to get overlooked – the Oilers have over the course of the full season been a pretty solid defensive team, doing everything they can to help their goaltending.

The Oilers actual results have been very good. They finished with the second highest number of regulation wins in the league with 45 – a good indicator that they’ve been winning games decisively and not leaving things to chance in overtime and shootout. Three other teams in the west rank amongst the top ten teams with the highest number of regulation wins – Dallas ranks 6th with 39, Vegas ranks 7th with 38 and Los Angeles ranks 10th with 37.

The Oilers have also been able to control the flow of play really well, as reflected by their shot-share numbers. And they’ve actually outscored opponents without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice at even-strength. In 1,831 minutes without one of both of them on the ice, or 46% of the team’s total time, the Oilers posted a Corsi For percentage and an Expected Goals For percentage of 53%. And they posted a +14 goal differential (74 goals for, 60 against).

The one area that could be an issue is goaltending. It’s been a great story this year with Stuart Skinner, and how he had to take on a starting role with Campbell struggling. But the team’s 91.34% save percentage finished 16th in the league and 8th in the western conference. Among the eight teams from the west that have qualified for the playoffs, their save percentage is only better than Los Angeles’ and Seattle’s. It could be good enough for the playoffs, but I don’t expect the Oilers goaltending to win the team any games if games get tighter.

Quick glance into how each team played in their last twenty five games (since around mid-February). Helps get a sense of what each team’s strengths and weaknesses are and how it could translate into their post-season results.

The team that stands out is Vegas, as it appears their possession numbers have slipped significantly and are relying on their goaltending to bail them out. They might be okay, considering how much of an impact goaltending has on playoff results. Plus they do also have Mark Stone coming back into the lineup. Winnipeg does have their own x-factor in net with Connor Hellebuyck, so it should be a good first-round match up.

Seattle is another team that might have some issues in the playoffs, especially with their goaltending which hasn’t performed well recently. They still have a good balance of forwards and can outscore you with different lines, as reflected by their 56% goal-share this season (second best in the league). But they lack that high-end talent to match some of the more offensive teams in the west.

The rest of the top teams in the western conference really turned it up in this last stretch of the season. Suspect, based on the table above, that some of the weaker teams knew they were out by the all-star break, and maybe didn’t dress their optimal rosters to increase their odds of landing Connor Bedard.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com

One of the Oilers best traits this season has been their ability to control the flow of play and scoring chances,  spending more time with the puck and the offensive zone. And that’s been with and without their best players. Their Corsi For% and Expected Goals For% remains one of the best in the league, and it’s been that way since late November.

This has translated to success defensively, as the Oilers spend less time in their own zone, and have limited the rate of shots and scoring chances against at even-strength – a positive sign heading into the playoffs. Over the course of the season, this rate of shots against had gradually decreased and has been better than league average for some time now. In their last twenty five games, the Oilers are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to preventing shots and scoring chances against.

The chart below displays the Oilers rate of unblocked shot attempts (Fenwick) at even-strength, which can be used as a proxy for scoring chances. You can use shot attempts against (Corsi), shots on goal, scoring chances, expected goals – they all have a similar trend of gradually declining over the course of the regular season and being slightly better than league-average levels.

The obvious problem for the Edmonton Oilers is that while they’re doing everything they can to limit chances against, their goaltending has gradually been getting worse. The graph below shows the team’s save percentage at even-strength over rolling 25-game segments, with the blue line representing the league average.

Now while it is true that goaltending is taking a hit league-wide, it appears the Oilers goaltending has been impacted even more. Looking at each team’s last 25 games, the Oilers team save percentage at even-strength ranks 29th league-wide with 89.35%. That’s only better than Seattle in the western conference.

Put another way – based on Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals model that factors in shot quality and location, the Oilers should have allowed 2.38 goals against per hour at even-strength in their last 25 games, so about 48 goals against. But because of the goaltending, they’ve allowed 62 goals, a differential of 14 goals. That translates to about two wins in the standings, which would have had them first in the Pacific division.

Sixty goalies have played at least 250 even-strength minutes over the last 25 games. Campbell’s played in nine games, and his save percentage ranks 57th and his goals saved above average ranks 58th. Skinner is around league average levels in his 17 games, ranking 31st in save percentage and 36th in goals saved above average.

Skinner is the obvious starter for the Oilers, but you do have to wonder if the extra workload in his rookie season is impacting his recent performance. Earlier in the season, especially in the first 20 games or so when the team struggled, he was very good – posting numbers slightly above league average levels. But now his performance levels have come back down to earth, due in large part because a suitable back-up goalie hasn’t been available for the coaching staff. Not an ideal situation heading towards the playoffs, and something that needs to be addressed better in the off-season if the team wants to remain competitive.

Data: Natural Stat Trick