Alberta Hockey Analytics Conference

Source: Ice Nation UK

Source: Ice Nation UK

Had the chance to meet up with a group of people interested in hockey analytics this past Saturday in downtown Edmonton. The event was hosted by Rob Vollman, author of The Hockey Abstract, and featured presentations covering the different sides of hockey analytics.

Here’s a quick recap of what we covered.

Sean Solbak of Frozen Pools talked about hockey analytics in the realm of fantasy league. Sean gave some insight into the algorithms used to predict points based on things like ice-time, shots, passes, possession and shooting percentage. Of course, capturing luck is always a challenge, but there’s definitely value in the models used by Sean to predict performance.

Next, Justin Azevedo of FlamesNation gave a presentation on possession stats like Corsi and some of the work he has done this past season tracking the Flames. Justin shared some of the patterns he found in the data he collected manually and also provided some insight into applying those findings to actual game situations.

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Deconstructing the Jersey Toss

"The medium is the message." (1964)

“The medium is the message.” (1964)

Originally posted at Hockey in Society.

The jersey of any sports team, professional or not, holds a history, a story, and many different meanings. The message that resonates with any sports jersey is different depending on who is involved in the communication process. To some, the jersey simply designates who plays on what team. For others, a jersey holds significant, personal meaning which can be immersed in a narrative to build and share.

During two embarrassing losses on home ice this past season, two Edmonton Oilers jerseys were tossed by fans on to the ice. Both were acts of frustration and disapproval towards the club and their miserable performance. Many understood why the fans threw the jersey, while others, including Oilers goaltender Ben Scrivens, questioned why the jersey was used as the medium to send a message.

“I’m from (Edmonton). You’re not just disrespecting guys in the room you’re disrespecting guys who wore the jersey before us … Messier, Gretzky, they all take pride in wearing that jersey. You’re a fan, you get to say and do whatever you want, call me whatever name you want, but when it comes to that logo, that’s a sacred thing for us. It’s disheartening for me to see our fans treat it that way.” (Canoe.ca)

The crumpled jersey on the ice for all to see was significant because it was an extreme response to a poor performance. It brought to light the narratives, history and meaning we each have as fans of the team. And, aside from the disrespect to the past players as Scrivens pointed out, the toss of the jersey also challenged and disrupted the traditional communication channels sports fans have established with their team. Continue reading

Oilers Positives and Negatives 2013-2014

oilers_sabres_hockey_30120629-e1391483874353

Source: O.Canada.com

It’s disappointing when something doesn’t meet your expectations. It’s even more disappointing when your expectations weren’t even that high to begin with.

My prediction at the start of the year was that the Oilers would finish between 10th and 12th in the west. RNH was recovering from shoulder surgery. Gagner got hurt in pre-season. And, compared to playoff teams from last year, the Oilers defensive core lacked NHL talent and experience. Add to the fact you had a coaching staff with very little experience and a very young top-six, I just couldn’t see this club making the playoffs as a wild card.

Going through my Oilers posts from this season, I’ve compiled what I think were the positives (believe it or not, there were some) and negatives.

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Ryan Smyth – The Generational Player

Pretty memorable night this past weekend. In case you missed it, here’s the highlight from the game.

I’ve never experienced anything like that and I don’t suspect many other have. Almost makes you forget about the disastrous season.

The funny thing is, Smyth has been on the team for three years since his return. Yet we didn’t pay much attention to him, mainly because he was playing a reduced role. We knew he was on the team, but I don’t think anyone really, truly appreciated his accomplishments until this past weekend.

Smyth really did define an entire era for the Oilers. For me personally, he was the face of the franchise, that generational player every team desperately searches for. Around the time I really started following the Oilers was when Smyth was just starting his legacy. Losing him is losing a big part of the Oilers fan experience.

Reflecting on his career and following the #94memories discussion on Twitter, it’s crazy to think that every significant event I’ve experienced as an Oiler fan, he was there.

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Filtering out the Noise: Laraque/Gazdic and Goalie performance against former teams

LaraqueWithout a doubt, blogging tools such as Twitter have been great tools for fans to share and receive information. The best part about it, however, has been its ability to filter out the junk information that surrounds the game of hockey.

Two great examples today.

A local sports reporter was being interviewed on the radio this morning and suggested a current Oilers enforcer Luke Gazdic was a better player than former Oiler Georges Laraque. It was quickly picked up on Twitter.

Unfortunately, the reporter didn’t back up his assertion, leaving it up to listeners and the online community to correct him. Jonathan Willis of the Cult of Hockey had this to add: Continue reading

Catching up with the Oilers

1297543298643_ORIGINALI have no idea how anyone, journalists, bloggers, anyone, can find the motivation to write a paragraph about the 2013/2014 Oilers.

Since the Olympic break, the club has gone 6-9. In the month of March, they’ve posted some very brutal losses to the likes of Buffalo and Calgary.

The Positives

The young defencemen are looking pretty decent. Guys like Marincin and Klefbom continue to hold their own despite some rookie jitters. Both are a great example of how the AHL benefits players, especially when there’s a strong coach and system in place. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if OKC Barons coach Todd Nelson makes his way up to the NHL soon.

The Scrivens/Fasth combo is looking pretty decent now, and have stolen a few games for the team. GM MacTavish might not be everyone’s favorite, but at the least the guy is making changes quickly.

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Gold!

Sochi 2014

Sochi 2014

Well, that was fun.

It was nice to be reminded what meaningful hockey looks like. I thought the tournament was a great showcase for hockey, and really highlighted the skill and speed of the game. No useless pushing and shoving after the whistle. No meaningless fights. Just hockey.

A gold for Canada was expected, but with excellent goaltending apparent across the tournament, along with a knock-out format, anything could’ve happened. Thankfully Canada can boast back-to-back gold medals and move on from all the hype and gossip that lead up to the Olympics.

A personal highlight for me was watching Teemu Selanne play his final tournament for Finland and win bronze. The 42 year old has had such a remarkable career and continues to play well as he gets older. He, along with Martin St. Louis, are great examples of age being just a number. I can’t imagine the work they do to keep doing what they do. Just unreal.

And now, back to the grind of being an Oilers fan. Last I checked, they won five of their last seven, Ben Scrivens was playing well, and the team is destined to ship out real NHL players for draft picks.

Recommended Links

Welcome….To The Machine – Black Dog Hates Skunks

Scrivens

Source: Edmonton Oilers

Source: Edmonton Oilers

Unbelievable performance by goaltender Ben Scrivens tonight as the Oilers shutout the powerhouse San Jose Sharks. How the Oilers allowed that many scoring chances and still won the game, a shutout no less, is beyond me.

Scrivens set a new record for most saves in a shutout win with 59 stops. Here’s hoping he can continue playing well and extend the current three-game winning streak.

It can easily be pointed out that the team played horrific defense and allowed way too many quality scoring chances. They really did luck out against one of the top teams in the league.

But in the midst of another losing season, it’s nice to have one of these memorable wins. Lord knows we’ve been burned by a hot goalies enough times, so it’s nice to be on the winning end for once.

Recommended Links

Ben F’n Scrivens!!! – The Copper and Blue

 

 

 

Thoughts on the Oilers: Rock Bottom

katzOilers’ owner Daryl Katz recently released a letter to fans to express his disappointment in yet another losing season. Katz also took the time to express his support of the current management group who have taken a lot of criticism for the team’s awful performance.

The letter, available on the Edmonton Oiler’s website, has already received a very negative reaction, mainly because it lacks any substance. One part of the letter really stands out to me:

I know this will almost certainly be the eighth consecutive year since we made the playoffs. I hate that fact as much as anyone, but the reality is that this is only year four of the rebuild that started when we drafted Taylor Hall. The good news, if you can call it that, is that other teams that committed to fundamental rebuilds went through the same kind of droughts over the same kind of time frames, or longer. That doesn’t make it fun for anyone; it just means we have to stay the course.

Now a lot can made about Katz’s assertion that the re-build is in year four or that the course that they are on is a terrible one. But my main issue is the absolute loser tone the letter takes and how there doesn’t seem to be much urgency. It totally comes across as a message to the sponsors and the ticket holders rather than the entire fanbase. Maybe it’s just me, but as an owner you should demand a lot more, especially when you’ve missed the playoffs for eight straight seasons.

And just when the fans were reeling from this embarrassment, a nice article from The Copper and Blue provided some high level stats on the number of shots the Oilers have taken since 2006.

The Oilers have been outshot by 2,689 shots over than span.  The next closest worst team, the Jets, are 1100 shots better – 2 per game – than the Oilers in 8 years.  The best team in the league by this measure, the Red Wings, have been 6000 shots better, more than 10 per game, than the Oilers.

Fun times in Oil Country!

The Katz letter in a lovely word cloud:

Wordle: Daryl Katz Letter to Fans

Hockey Analytics and Me

I’ve written extensively about the growth and development of hockey analytics over the past few years and continue to be encouraged by the growing number of people interested in the field. It’s a clear indication that fans are more than passive consumers of the game. They’re clearly engaged and what to apply their own ideas and thoughts to better understand the game.

I’ve recently received a few inquiries about where to get certain stats and explanations of some of the more modern hockey stats available. I’m really no expert in the field, so I typically direct those inquiries to one of the many sites that provide insight into hockey analytics.

The great thing about hockey analytics (or advanced stats) is that it’s an entirely personal thing. Human beings all have unique needs when it comes to information collection and processing. We’ve all developed extensive biases and opinions about the game, that there is no statistic or collection of statistics that will appease everyone. With so much information available to fans, and the rapid development of technology, fans are forced to develop their own methods of processing information and can engage with stats as much or as little as they like.

For me personally, I’ve always liked looking into the stats of a game or of a player. I used to be obsessed with the stats on the back of hockey cards when I was a kid and always looked for basic level stats after a game was done. Growing up as an Oiler fan, you had to look for stats that somehow made your team look bearable. Aside from Doug Weight, there weren’t a lot of standouts in the late nineties, at least from my perspective. So you started to look deeper into stats trying to find something, anything, to give you hope as a fan.

The honest truth is I don’t delve too far deep into stats. The main statistic I’m interested in is shots, scoring chances and shot quality. During and after games, I typically check Twitter to follow a couple bloggers that track these stats.

If you look at the top teams, they get lots of high quality chances and they prevent the other team from getting high quality chances. Seems simple enough to me. Having said that, I’m always interested in seeing what stats are being discussed and developed online. A couple writers that get really deep into the stats with moderate theories, but also provide concise summaries are below, for those that are interested:

If there are additional websites or articles that provide a good introduction to hockey analytics, please comment below.