Playoffs have been a lot of fun so far. Couple notes.

Over their nine post-season games, the Oilers have been outscored 16-12 at even-strength (5v5), a goal-share of 42.86%, which ranks them 13th among the 16 playoff teams. They have a score-adjusted Corsi For% of 49.75, which ranks them 9th. But over the first three games of the second round, the Ducks have been the better possession team, controlling 55.7% of the shot attempts, and outscoring the Oilers 8-5. I fully appreciate the fact that the playoffs is a crap-shoot, and that anything can happen. I’d just be a little more confident if the Oiler’s goal-share and shot metrics were a little better.

The lack of calls against the Ducks has been frustrating. Anaheim finished the regular season with a penalty differential of -11, which was the 9th worst in the league. The Oilers on the other hand finished the regular season with a penalty differential of +11, which was 11th in the league. In the playoffs? The Oilers suddenly have the worst penalty differential among the 16 teams with -11. And the Ducks? They sit around the middle of the pack with a differential of 0. The league needs to be look into this, it makes no sense.

Goaltending has not been good for the Oilers against the Ducks. After finishing the first round against the Sharks with a 5v5 save percentage of 93.85%, 7th best among the 16 playoff teams, Talbot’s save percentage has dropped to 89.74%. To put things into perspective, the Flames, who were swept by the Ducks, posted a 5v5 save percentage of 90.32% in the first round against the same team. Worth noting that the Flames posted a 5v5 shooting percentage of 1.94% against the Ducks, while the Oilers currently have a reasonable 8.93% shooting percentage against the same team.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the five different line combinations the Oilers have used for at least 30 minutes at 5v5 this post-season, including their Corsi For%, Fenwick For%, Expected Goal% and actual goals for/against.

The trio of Lucic-RNH-Eberle has played the most minutes together for the Oilers, and have Corsi For% of 57.65%, which ranks them 8th among the 45 line combinations that have played at least 30 minutes together in the post-season. Not only have the had great possession numbers, but they’re also getting a higher share of the quality chances. This is pretty impressive considering they’ve been playing tough match-ups (Thornton/Pavelski in round one, and now Getzlaf in round two). Unfortunately for them, the results haven’t come yet, as they’ve posted a shooting percentage of 2.13%. You’d think that their percentages eventually regress towards their career norms, but there really isn’t a lot of time in the playoffs for things to correct themselves. I’d keep this trio together, but would understand if the coaching staff made a tweak. One other thing worth noting is how good of a job this trio has done drawing penalties. They’re +4 together in terms of penalty differentials, which is the best among the 45 line combinations.

The Desharnais/Pouliot tandem has been playing better lately, so I would keep them together. Pouliot has also been very good on the penalty kill, so it really isn’t worth scratching him. The players I’d be worried about are Letestu and Kassian. I understand Letestu’s value on the powerplay, and would keep him in the line-up. But that line just isn’t working at 5v5, and is often allowing a lot of shots by the other team’s depth players.

One last thing: I wanted to see how the Oilers differentials have been at 5v5 over the nine games to see if there were any patterns.

The Oilers have yet to post good underlying numbers against the Ducks, which has me somewhat concerned. Their goaltending hasn’t been good enough in the second round, but maybe Talbot has another bounce back game on Wednesday and steals one. What also stands out in the graph above is how well the Oilers bounce back after a loss. After both losses against San Jose, the Oilers dominated play in the following game. Anaheim is a different team and might have better game plan, and health, than San Jose. But I do like the Oilers chances of putting together a better effort in game four.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Corsica Hockey

There are plenty of reasons why the Oilers are heading to San Jose with a 3-2 lead in the series. The goaltending has been solid for the most part. The powerplay has been looking good. And the club has received contributions from across their roster, as the defence, as well as the third and fourth lines provided offence on Thursday night.

One player that may not be getting any recognition for his contributions thus far in the post-season is 24-year old centerman Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He recently completed his sixth NHL season, collecting 43 points in 82 games, playing predominantly in a secondary role alongside Jordan Eberle and Milan Lucic. The trio completed the regular season with a 50.5% Corsi For at even-strength and had a 50.0% goal-share, which are solid numbers considering they often played against the other team’s top lines. The coach clearly has a lot of faith in the trio as a tough-minutes option, and they have remained intact for the first five games of the playoffs.

Nugent-Hopkins in particular has stood out in this series, as his play has been reliable across all areas of the ice. He’s shown flashes of offence, creating plenty of chances for his linemates. And he’s been playing sound defensive hockey, breaking up plays and leading his team in takeaways. Nugent-Hopkins has seen plenty of Logan Couture’s line this post-season, as well as Joe Pavelski’s, and has received regular minutes against the Brent Burns/Paul Martin pairing. What’s been interesting after five games is that the team’s Corsi differential has been mostly respectable with him on the ice, but has taken a dip, especially in games three and four in San Jose, when Nugent-Hopkins is on the bench.

In games 2 and 5 at home when the Oilers dominated play, the team did well with and without Nugent-Hopkins. He spent over 70% of his ice time at even-strength against Pavelski in both of those games and had a Corsi differential of +6. And in those two games, Nugent-Hopkins spent over 50% of his time against Burns, the defenceman he’s seen the most of in the series, and finished with a +9 Corsi differential.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

After the first four games, the Oilers have scored a grand total of five goals: two at even-strength, two short-handed and one on the powerplay.  San Jose is the better team right now when it comes to actual goals, thanks to their outburst in game four and the four powerplay goals.

I’m fairly confident that the Oilers powerplay will start to click again, considering they had great, sustainable results during the regular season, as they generated a lot of chances with the man-advantage.

The Sharks penalty kill wasn’t that great in the regular season as they allowed a lot of shots and realied heavily on their goaltending to bail them out. And the Sharks powerplay, which was one of the worst in the league in terms of goals and ranked below league-average in terms of shots, isn’t likely to ever score four again in a game.

Related: The Oilers Powerplay Could Be the Difference Against San Jose – The Copper & Blue (2017, April 11)

I think the issue for the Oilers is their even-strength play. Here’s how the two teams have done over the first four games.

Across all three metrics, Corsi (proxy for possession), Fenwick (proxy for shot quality) and scoring chances, the Sharks have been in control. It was only in game two that the Oilers had a share of 50% or more: CF% – 69.12, FF% – 72.09 and SCF% – 82.76. What’s interesting is that even when they dominated that game, they still could not score at even-strength, as both goals came shorthanded.

Another thing worth noting here is how poorly the Oilers have played when the score has been within one. In 135 minutes (of a total 172 5v5 minutes), CF% – 46.62%, FF% – 44.44%, SCF% – 45.38%.

What has to be emphasized are the shooting and save percentages for each team over these four games.

Both the Sharks and Oilers were around league average when it came to shooting percentage in the regular season, 7.82% and 8.28% respectively. While the Sharks shooting percentage started correcting itself in game four, I think it’s safe to assume that the Oilers will eventually start converting more of their shots into goals, at least in the next two games.

As for the save percentage, we know Martin Jones is a good goalie. But I highly doubt he’ll maintain a 97% save percentage, considering he finished the regular season around the 92-93% range.

We can take the team’s struggles at 5v5 one step further and look at how the players are doing. What I’ve done below is list out the four centers, sorted by ice time, and listed their Corsi, Fenwick and Scoring Chance differentials, along with their on-ice shares.

When it comes to possession, McDavid and RNH appear to be doing well, which is great news considering that they play against the other team’s top players. Letestu and Desharnais, despite playing the secondary lines, aren’t exactly getting the job done at 5v5. Letestu is a valuable piece on the powerplay, but I’d be curious to see if the Oilers move him to wing, and play Draisaitl more often at center. Desharnais on the other hand could easily be replaced by Lander or even Hendricks, who can both play on the penalty kill (unlike DD). I mention the penalty kill because RNH is seeing a ton of minutes shorthanded, which disrupts his 5v5 line that’s been very reliable over the past four games.

When it comes to shot quality (again, I’m using Fenwick as my proxy), it appears that every center except for RNH is doing poorly. McDavid with a -6 differential is very surprising considering his talent level, but it might have to do with San Jose sending out Vlasic and Braun out against him on a regular basis. With game five at home, it’ll be important for McLellan to get McDavid out there as much as possible and away from the pairings that have been causing him issues.

Looking at the Oilers defence, it appears that the usual suspects are on the ice for a higher rate of shot attempts and scoring chances against. The Sekera-Russell pairing, which played similar competition as the Klefbom-Larsson pairing, continues to struggle suppressing shots.

The fact that the Oilers are posting lower than 50% shares of shot attempts and scoring chances should be a concern for the club. A lot of the issues they’re currently having (poor outputs from depth centers, higher than normal shots against when certain defencemen are out) were identified in the regular season, but weren’t addressed by management. Now that they’re in the playoffs, they’ll have to hope McDavid and the top line can break out, and the team shooting percentage regresses towards their season long average. I know I’d have a lot more confidence if their shot-shares were better.

Data: Natural Stat Trick