Bringing Back Horcoff

June 3, 2015June 3, 2015 / sunilagni / 12 Comments

Hear me out.

For the first time in a long time, the Oilers are poised to start a season with four legitimate centermen. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Anton Lander made some very nice progress last season, while Boyd Gordon, who is in his last season of his three-year contract, played consistently in both ends of the ice. Connor McDavid will be in the starting line-up in October and at this point I’ll assume he’ll be at center.

We’ll also have Leon Draisaitl (truly) competing for a roster spot in training camp. I hope he flourishes and makes a huge push, but I would not be disappointed if Leon spends a season in the AHL to refine his game. Keep in mind, the AHL’s California teams will play less games next season and focus more on player development. Young prospects like Leon will get more ice time and more opportunities to play different situations.

As of today, the 2015-2016 forwards roster looks something like this:

LW	C	RW
Pouliot	RNH	Eberle
Hall	McDavid	Yakupov
Pakarinen	Lander	Purcell
Hendricks	Gordon	Klinkhammer

Not bad, right? And you can easily shift guys around and even entertain the idea of having Draisaitl somewhere on the wing.

My concern here is that the Oilers would be absolutely hooped if one of the centermen got hurt. The other issue is that Lander might regress or Gordon might start slowing down due to the workload. Plus, it might be best that McDavid ease his way in to the NHL by playing wing with an experienced centerman. Draisaitl could possibly be that replacement player, but it would make no sense to stunt his development because the Oilers weren’t deep enough at center.

What I propose is that the Oilers acquire an experienced centerman who could play wing, but shift to center as needed. Someone who could slide into that third line left-wing spot and play some special teams as needed. And with a young core, it’ll be imperative that the club bring in a proven leader to provide guidance.

The Candidate

Shawn Horcoff will be an unrestricted free agent on July 1, just completing his six year, $33 million contract that he signed with the Oilers in 2008. He’s 36 years old now, having played 946 NHL games and scoring 496 points. There is no question that his career will be coming to a close soon, but it’s his performance last season that has me thinking he could be a productive player for the Oilers next season.

Below is a summary of his play at even-strength over the past five seasons (Source: War on Ice).

Season	Team	Gm	G	P	A	TOI/Gm	P60	CF%	ZSO%
2010/11	EDM	47	4	14	10	13.83	1.29	48.42	50.73
2011/12	EDM	81	7	16	9	13.37	0.89	47.08	42.99
2012/13	EDM	31	4	8	4	11.3	1.37	42.38	40.57
2013/14	DAL	77	1	13	12	10.16	1.00	48.65	52.38
2014/15	DAL	76	6	22	16	10.06	1.73	52.68	50.99

Horcoff notched 29 points last season, with 22 of those points coming at even-strength. His offensive zone starts were down slightly from the previous year, but he managed to perform better in terms of productivity and possession. He played limited minutes in Dallas, and produced at a third-line level.

What should be noted is that Horcoff played a lot on the wing, as the Stars had Seguin, Spezza, Eakin and Fiddler as pivots. Horcoff still took a lot of faceoffs, but he was 6th on the team in faceoff attempts (Source: NHL.com).

Horcoff’s two most common linemates last season were Vernon Fiddler and Colton Sceviour (Source: Hockey Analysis). Here’s a quick summary of how they fared together and apart.

Corsi % (Even strength)
Linemate	With Horcoff	Without Horcoff
C. Sceviour	55.0	52.7
V. Fiddler	53.1	48.5

Horcoff away from these two had a decent Corsi. What’s interesting is how both his linemates posted slightly better Corsi’s when Horcoff was with them. Horcoff might be getting older, but he’s not at the point where he drags down teammates. It should be noted that Horcoff had reasonable zone starts and typically went against the other club’s bottom six forwards.

The key thing to consider is that Horcoff filled the kind of role the Oilers really need this year: an experienced forward, who can produce on the third line, not be a drag on his linemates and make a seamless transition to center when needed. He did a little bit of everything, serving as a mentor to the younger players in Dallas.

And if you want some “toughness” and “grit” and whatever on the third line, he’s your guy:

I can’t imagine a lot of teams lining up to sign him due to his age, so the acquisition cost should be low. The other issue of course is whether Horcoff would want to sign in Edmonton, likely preferring to join a cup contender. My guess is that because of McDavid and the reputable management team in place now, Edmonton would be a prime destination for many, including Horcoff.

And if Horcoff doesn’t fit what the Oilers want, here’s hoping they strongly consider adding an experienced center through trade or free agency. It’s absolutely critical.

Comparing the Oilers by Position to the Rest of the League

June 1, 2015June 1, 2015 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

Andrew Berkshire recently put together a nice piece comparing the point production of the Montreal Canadaiens to the rest of the league by position. He does a nice providing realistic expectation of players and setting benchmarks for different positions. I thought it’d be interesting to see how the 2014-2015 Oilers measure up with the rest of the NHL.

Below is a summary table of the point ranges by line and position. What Andrew did was find the range of points based on the top 30 players at the position. Second line range was based on players ranked 31st-60th at that position, and the third line range was based on the 61st-90th ranked players. Please note, I prefer evaluating players based on even-strength play, so I focused on those numbers.

Point Range (Even-strength)
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right WIng
1	33-59	39-60	29-55
2	22-32	31-39	19-29
3	11-20	24-30	11-19

So how did the Oilers rank in 2014-2015? Below are the points for each player, by position, at even-strength. I’ve also included the players’ points/60 and the average time on ice per game to provide some context (Source: War on Ice).

Centers (Even-Strength)
Name	Gm	P	P60	TOI/Gm
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	76	37	1.92	15.25
Derek Roy	46	16	1.50	13.92
Anton Lander	38	11	1.46	11.87
Boyd Gordon	68	10	0.86	10.23
Mark Arcobello	36	8	1.04	12.85
Leon Draisaitl	37	7	1.03	11.01

Left Wings (Even-Strength)
Name	Gm	P	P60	TOI/Gm
Taylor Hall	53	26	1.86	15.83
Benoit Pouliot	58	24	1.98	12.55
David Perron	38	15	1.75	13.53
Matt Hendricks	71	10	0.79	10.75
Luke Gazdic	40	3	0.61	7.43
Rob Klinkhammer	40	3	0.40	11.14
Jesse Joensuu	20	2	0.63	9.57

Right Wings (Even-Strength)
Name	Gm	P	P60	TOI/Gm
Jordan Eberle	81	41	1.98	15.30
Nail Yakupov	81	21	1.20	12.99
Teddy Purcell	82	20	1.11	13.23
Matt Fraser	36	7	1.10	10.65
Steven Pinizzotto	18	3	1.31	7.62
Andrew Miller	9	3	1.44	13.88
Tyler Pitlick	17	2	0.59	12.05
Iiro Pakarinen	17	1	0.36	9.75

Here’s where the Oilers fit compared to the ranges from Andrew’s piece.

Point Range (Even-strength)
Oilers 2014-2015
Line	LW	C	RW
1	–	–	Eberle
2	Hall Pouliot	RNH	Yakupov Purcell
3	Perron	–	–

Couple thoughts:

RNH made significant strides this past season and is well on his way to becoming a star. His point totals just missed the cut-off to be a first line center, but there should be no issues for him going forward.
Hall had an off-year, but you can be sure he’ll be back to elite status next season.
Eberle is the only player who falls into the first line category based on even-strength points. He’s not the most productive player, as in he gets a lot of minutes. But he’s become a very consistent player for the club.
My guess is if Lander had a full season, he’d make a push to fall under the third-line center category. It is good to know what the realistic expectations should be of him.
Since the guy played all the tough minutes last season, Gordon doesn’t have to show up in these tables. The guy is awesome.
Man, I cannot believe we’ll have McDavid, RNH and Draisaitl as our centermen in the near future. Good Lord.

Leaving the University of Alberta Alumni Council

May 26, 2015November 21, 2022 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

Source: UAlberta.ca

It’s been a fantastic experience with the Alumni Council. Got to meet a lot of people and worked on some great projects over the two years.

In my first year, I was the faculty representative for Extension. In my second year, I was part of the executive team and appointed to the Senate. Got to learn about many different facets of the U of A community and the impact this campus has on the community.

If you’ve ever considered re-connecting with the U of A, I highly recommend getting involved with the Alumni Association. It’s a well run group that has many projects and initiatives underway. I can’t say enough about the volunteers and the supporting staff. The Council has grown over the past year, with a lot of new members coming in. Look forward to seeing what they do they can accomplish in the coming year.

There are also many, many ways to volunteer on campus. There’s a lot of programs and services across campus that are worth checking out and connecting with. Two groups that are doing outstanding work are University Wellness Services and the Office of Sustainability. Highly recommend learning more about what they do.

I’ve categorized all my posts pertaining to the Alumni Council here. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions about it.

Quality Starts Percentage

May 21, 2015May 21, 2015 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

Adjusted Save Percentage, developed and published by War on Ice, is a very well thought out stat, and I’ve relied on it heavily the past few weeks looking at goalies. Darcy put together a fantastic post recently that looked into the history of the available goalies and found some interesting stuff. Highly recommend checking out his assessment.

I decided to use Darcy’s list of goalies and focus on their percentage of Quality Starts over the past five years. I’ve also included the number of games started in parentheses. Please note, QS% relies on traditional save percentage data (not adjusted) and factors in all situations (even-strength, powerplay, penalty kill).

From Hockey Abstract:

In order to record a Quality Start, the starting goalie must stop at least a league average number of shots (typically 91.3% prior to 2009-10, and 91.7% since), or play at least as well as a replacement-level goalie (88.5%) while allowing two goals or fewer.

The average QS% is 0.530, with anything lower than 0.500 being pretty bad. Having a QS% above 0.600 is very good (Source: Hockey Reference). More on Quality Starts can be found on Habs Eyes on the Prize.

Unrestricted Free Agents
Player	Age	2010/11	2011/12	2012/13	2013/14	2014/15
Antti Niemi	31	0.617 (60)	0.529 (68)	0.674 (43)	0.469 (64)	0.542 (59)
Devan Dubnyk	28	0.545 (33)	0.548 (42)	0.541 (37)	0.355 (31)	0.685 (54)
Jhonas Enroth	26	0.538 (13)	0.682 (22)	0.778 (9)	0.538 (26)	0.429 (42)
Karri Ramo	28	–	–	–	0.514 (37)	0.452 (31)
Michal Neuvirth	26	0.477 (44)	0.500 (30)	0.583 (12)	0.692 (13)	0.531 (32)

Antti Niemi is a good to average goalie, but he’s too old at this point to invest in. He’ll get paid this summer, but I don’t expect him to get better with age..it just does not happen.
Look at that: Dubnyk was right around the average QS% until that horrendous 2013/14 season. Glad to see he has bounced back.
Jhonas Enroth has done well historically, but his value may have taken a hit this past season. This guy has to be a legit target for a number of teams.
Ah, and there’s our good friend Michal Neuvirth. He’s only 26 and has put up some nice numbers over the past three years but hasn’t started a lot.

Goalies Under Contract Who Could Be Acquired
Player	Age	2010/11	2011/12	2012/13	2013/14	2014/15
Antti Raanta	25	–	–	–	0.545 (22)	0.667 (12)
Ben Scrivens	28	–	0.455 (11)	0.588 (17)	0.629 (35)	0.373 (51)
Brian Elliott	29	0.333 (51)	0.778 (36)	0.600 (20)	0.600 (25)	0.600 (45)
Cam Talbot	27	–	–	–	0.842 (19)	0.500 (34)
Corey Crawford	30	0.618 (55)	0.491 (55)	0.679 (28)	0.554 (56)	0.696 (56)
Craig Anderson	33	0.592 (49)	0.567 (60)	0.708 (24)	0.500 (52)	0.571 (35)
Jimmy Howard	30	0.476 (63)	0.614 (57)	0.619 (42)	0.500 (50)	0.531 (49)
Jonas Hiller	32	0.565 (46)	0.542 (72)	0.56 (25)	0.540 (50)	0.512 (43)
Jonathan Bernier	26	0.636 (22)	0.462 (13)	0.667 (12)	0.612 (49)	0.481 (54)
Jonathan Quick	29	0.617 (60)	0.632 (68)	0.556 (36)	0.531 (49)	0.58 (69)
Kari Lehtonen	31	0.559 (68)	0.610 (59)	0.600 (35)	0.563 (64)	0.462 (65)
Martin Jones	25	–	–	–	0.722 (18)	0.455 (11)
Robin Lehner	23	0.200 (5)	0.800 (5)	0.833 (12)	0.633 (30)	0.458 (24)

I included Ben Scrivens since he’s penciled in, at this point, to be the backup next season.
Guys like Annti Raanta and Martin Jones have talent, but just haven’t had enough experience, in my opinion, to make a reasonable bet on.
Brian Elliot has been pretty steady when it comes to QS%, but his adjusted save percentages have been all over the map historically.
Crawford, Howard, Lehtonen and Anderson are getting up there in age, but they’ve been playing well recently. Their current clubs are going to have to make changes because of the cap, making for an interesting off-season.
Jonathan Bernier is another interesting goalie. He’s put up decent numbers and is only 26. He’d be at the top of my wish list.
Robin Lehner is another good, young prospect, but I’d be concerned about his health as he’s recovering from a significant concussion. At this point, the Oilers need a legit starter or someone that has enough experience to push for a starting position. Worth noting that he along with Devan Dubnyk and Eddie Lack were impacted by the rule changes around stick length in 2013.

Between what I’ve read and what Darcy has put together, I really don’t know what to think anymore. I’d stick with Scrivens as the backup as I think he can bounce back, similar to other goalies in the past. The starting position has to go to someone that’s in their prime (26-30) and has at least 300 games of NHL experience. I don’t like the idea of over spending on goaltending, so Niemi, to me, is out of the question. If a trade can’t be made to acquire someone like Corey Crawford or Jonathan Bernier, the Oilers may have to push hard for Devan Dubnyk or sign Michal Neuvirth or Enroth to value contracts. Lots of options, so here’s hoping Chiarelli takes a “measured approach”.

Goalies and Voodoo Magic

May 18, 2015May 18, 2015 / sunilagni / 2 Comments

Without a doubt, one of the weakest links of the Oilers in 2014/2015 was the goaltending. Both Scrivens and Fasth failed to lock down the starter position, finishing the season with adjusted save percentages in the bottom five (goalies who played 20 games or more).

One thing we know about goalies is that a lot of voodoo is involved. One season, a goalie can be terrible and the next, he’s winning games in the playoffs. One could argue that even assessing goalies involves a lot of guess work and truthiness, as a lot of factors come into play. Which team is the goalie on, how does the team do possession wise, does the team have a strong defensive core, and so forth.

I really want to believe that Scrivens can bounce back. After a good college and minor league career, he had shown well in his NHL career. Unfortunately, things went sideways this past season, but I don’t think we can write him off just yet.

To make a case, I first looked at how he measures up against the average adjusted save percentage (at even-strength) among goalies who played 20 or more games. And secondly, I looked for other goalies who may have had a rough season (or two) and bounced back.

Performance

Let’s start off with Ben Scrivens’ history.

Season	Team	Gm	Age	GP	W	L	T/O	QS%	AdSv%
2011/12	TOR	12	25	12	4	5	2	0.455	91.66
2012/13	TOR	20	26	20	7	9	0	0.588	92.33
2013/14	EDM/L.A	39	27	40	16	16	4	0.629	93.43
2014/15	EDM	57	28	57	15	26	11	0.373	90.88

This past season stands out as his worst in terms of adjusted save percentage (at even-strength) and the number of games he gave his team a chance to win (QS%). His adjusted save percentage, which factors in the quality of shot (low, medium, high danger), as well as his save percentage of high danger shots at even strength, was well below average.

Last season, and the year prior, he was alright when it came to adjusted save percentage at even strength…right around the average. His save percentage when it came to high danger shots at even-strength were slightly above average two seasons ago, and not too far off the average last season. I should also note that his save percentage when it came to high danger shots was at 82.96 when Eakins was head coach in 2014/2015, and 79.82 when Nelson was head coach. Scrivens’ adjusted save percentage did not change after goaltender coach Freddie Chabot was fired, but his high-danger save percentage went from 83.84 under Chabot to 79.92 under Schwartz (Source: War on Ice). Maybe it was the team tactics under one coach or the fact that Petry was dealt at the deadline, I’m not sure. But those are all factors at play here.

Comparables

In a previous post, I used the percentage of quality starts to find other goalies who had terrible seasons, similar to Scrivens. Goalies that also had QS% below 0.400 since 2007 include well-established netminders like Brian Elliott, Mike Smith, Devan Dubnyk and Semyon Varlamov (Source: Hockey Abstract). I decided to graph each goalies adjusted save percentage compared to the average as well as their high-danger save percentage along with the average. Again, this is for even strength situations and includes netminders who played 20 or more games in a season.

Couple notes:

I think it goes without saying that goalies can be hard to predict. But when goalies have a bad season, they typically bounce back the following year.
Man, Elliott and Smith are all over the map.
Our boy Devan Dubnyk was trending well before he had that bad season in 2013/2014. So happy to see him bounce back and get recognized for his accomplishments.

Thoughts

Ben Scrivens has a lot of work to do this summer if he wants to get back to an acceptable performance level. He’s in the last year of a two-year contract and will likely be in the AHL next season if he has another sub-par season. There are only so many roster sports for netminders.

The good news is other goaltenders have had seasons with a QS% below 0.400 but have managed to bounce back and maintain employment at the NHL level. These goalies have also seen their adjusted save percentages take a hit throughout their careers, but have still managed to remain as starters in the NHL. At the end of the day, it’ll be up to Scrivens to put this past season behind him, make the right adjustments in the off-season and put together a solid campaign as an Edmonton Oiler. The club would be wise to assign him the backup role, but I really think he could push for that starter position in 2015/2016.

Goalies with Potential

May 9, 2015May 9, 2015 / sunilagni / 5 Comments

Source: Edmonton Oilers

I’m of the mindset that having a young goalie with starter potential would be a smart move by the Oilers. Initially, I thought a goalie like Cam Talbot or Martin Jones, who are currently serving as backups, would be smart acquisitions, similar to how the Leafs acquired Jonathan Bernier in June of 2013 for a second round pick. If a goalie has been successful at the AHL level and has shown well in a limited role at the NHL level, that to me is good enough to warrant at least an assessment.

Alex Thomas, who does excellent work at the Oilers Rig, recently put a case together for acquiring Cam Talbot from the Rangers. The 27 year old played well while Lundqvist recovered from an injury. But his stats and style of play, to me, aren’t anything outstanding. In fact, his numbers at the NHL level and other leagues are somewhat similar to that of current Oilers netminder Ben Scrivens.

Here’s their NHL seasons to date. (Source: Hockey Reference)

Cam Talbot
SEASON	TEAM	LEAGUE	GP	W	L	OT	PCT	SO
2013-14	NY Rangers	NHL	21	12	6	1	0.941	3
2014-15	NY Rangers	NHL	36	21	9	4	0.926	5

Ben Scrivens
SEASON	TEAM	LEAGUE	GP	W	L	OT	PCT	SO
2011-12	Toronto	NHL	12	4	5	2	0.903	0
2012-13	Toronto	NHL	20	7	9	0	0.915	2
2013-14	Total LA/Edm	NHL	40	16	16	4	0.922	4
2014-15	Edmonton	NHL	57	15	26	11	0.890	1

Here’s a summary of each netminders overall stats by league:

Cam Talbot
LEAGUE	GP	W	L	OT	MIN.	PCT	SO
NHL	57	33	15	5	3306	0.931	8
AHL	116	54	52	5	6611	0.914	8
ECHL	2	1	0	1	122	0.921	0
CHA	70	15	44	–	3861	0.909	2

Ben Scrivens
LEAGUE	GP	W	L	OT	MIN.	PCT	SO
NHL	129	42	56	17	7135	0.905	7
AHL	94	49	34	7	5547	0.923	8
ECHL	13	10	3	0	779	0.938	0
ECAC	117	65	37	–	6708	–	19

Both goalies have come through the college ranks and have performed well at the AHL level. There’s no denying that they both have potential to be decent at the NHL level. The issue for Oilers fans is that Scrivens faltered badly last year in his first real attempt to be a starter, while Talbot appears to be ready for his first shot.

In my opinion, if you want a “goalie with potential” for next season, stick with Ben Scrivens. Two reasons:

One, Scrivens won’t cost you anything. He”ll make a very reasonable $2.3 million next year becoming a free agent in July of 2016 (Source: NHL Numbers). Talbot, on the other hand, will likely cost the Oilers either a draft pick or a young prospect in return. Goalies are not worth first round picks. And goalies are not worth high end prospects like Nail Yakupov. Nothing of that calibre should be in play. Goalies should never command that kind of return as there are a limited number of goalie jobs and more than enough professional goalies available. If the price for Talbot is high, the Oilers could always consider trading for similar “starter potential” goalies like Martin Jones, Antti Raanta or Andrei Vasilevskiy. But it’d be much wiser to spend existing assets on positions that are harder to fill such as defence.

Secondly, I’m fairly confident that Scrivens will bounce back from his horrific 2014/2015 season. Good to average goalies like Scrivens are susceptible to bad seasons, and typically get back to their standard level of performance soon after. We know Scrivens can play at the AHL level and he has done well in the three seasons prior at the NHL level.

One stat that’s worth paying attention to is the percentage of quality starts. Here’s a summary of the metric from from Habs Eyes on the Prize:

A Quality Start (QS) is a goaltending statistic that is awarded to a goaltender who gave his team a reasonable chance to win a game. This is quantified by the goaltender’s save percentage within an individual game itself and comparing it to the league standards for an average SV%, and the established ‘replacement level’ SV% if the goalie faces a low amount of shots faced in a given game (usually less than 20). If a goalie outperforms the league average save percentage, he is awarded a quality start. Additionally, a goalie is awarded a quality start if he allows 2 goals or less while keeping his save percentage above the expected performance of a replacement level goaltender.

Scrivens finished with a QS% of 0.396 this past season, which was second last among goalies who played a minimum of 20 games. In last place: Victor Fasth at 0.375. The league average for goalies is around 0.530. Worth noting that Scrivens has had a respectable QS% in the past. (Souce: Hockey Abstract).

Ben Scrivens
Season	Team	GS	SV%	QS%
2011-12	Toronto	11	0.9063	0.455
2012-13	Toronto	17	0.9116	0.588
2013-14	LA/Edmonton	35	0.9262	0.657
2014-15	Edmonton	53	0.8879	0.396

The good news is that other good goalies have had horrific seasons similar to Scrivens’ 2014/2015 campaign. Of those that finished with a QS% below 0.400 since 2007, the vast majority have bounced back and managed to have decent careers. A few of the notables.

Brian Elliott
Season	Team	GS	SV%	QS%
2007-08	Ottawa	1	0.9655	1.000
2008-09	Ottawa	30	0.9024	0.500
2009-10	Ottawa	48	0.9100	0.563
2010-11	Ottawa/Colorado	51	0.8940	0.333
2011-12	St. Louis	36	0.9401	0.778
2012-13	St. Louis	20	0.9034	0.600
2013-14	St. Louis	25	0.9237	0.640
2014-15	St. Louis	45	0.9170	0.578

Cam Ward
Season	Team	GS	SV%	QS%
2007-08	Carolina	67	0.9042	0.567
2008-09	Carolina	68	0.9158	0.618
2009-10	Carolina	45	0.9162	0.556
2010-11	Carolina	73	0.9223	0.589
2011-12	Carolina	68	0.9151	0.559
2012-13	Carolina	16	0.9075	0.438
2013-14	Carolina	28	0.9004	0.393
2014-15	Carolina	50	0.9085	0.560

Devan Dubnyk
Season	Team	GS	SV%	QS%
2009-10	Edmonton	16	0.8870	0.313
2010-11	Edmonton	33	0.9155	0.545
2011-12	Edmonton	42	0.9172	0.548
2012-13	Edmonton	37	0.9199	0.541
2013-14	Edmonton/Nashville	31	0.8895	0.355
2014-15	Arizona/Minnesota	55	0.9300	0.673

James Reimer
Season	Team	GS	SV%	QS%
2010-11	Toronto	35	0.9202	0.571
2011-12	Toronto	34	0.9004	0.353
2012-13	Toronto	31	0.9235	0.516
2013-14	Toronto	32	0.9108	0.469
2014-15	Toronto	27	0.9056	0.444

Mike Smith
Season	Team	GS	SV%	QS%
2007-08	Tampa Bay	32	0.9040	0.469
2008-09	Tampa Bay	40	0.9151	0.625
2009-10	Tampa Bay	36	0.9035	0.389
2010-11	Tampa Bay	20	0.9021	0.500
2011-12	Arizona	66	0.9294	0.636
2012-13	Arizona	34	0.9104	0.441
2013-14	Arizona	61	0.9152	0.574
2014-15	Arizona	61	0.9044	0.475

Semyon Varlamov
Season	Team	GS	SV%	QS%
2008-09	Washington	5	0.9216	0.800
2009-10	Washington	23	0.9068	0.478
2010-11	Washington	25	0.9239	0.720
2011-12	Colorado	52	0.9125	0.577
2012-13	Colorado	33	0.9027	0.333
2013-14	Colorado	60	0.9284	0.733
2014-15	Colorado	57	0.9213	0.579

Obviously, each goalie had their own unique situation, and there are always 1,001 factors that impact goalie performance. But the general trend is that goalies who have a poor QS% one year, tend to bounce back soon after. Scrivens has his work cut out for him this summer if he wants to improve. But in my mind, the Oilers should retain him as their “goalie-with-potential” paired with an established netminder this coming season, and avoid sending away assets for guys like Cam Talbot.

Goaltending for the 2015-2016 Season

April 29, 2015April 29, 2015 / sunilagni / 3 Comments

Issue: The Edmonton Oilers must solidify their goaltending for the upcoming 2015-2016 NHL season.

Background

The Oilers finished 28th this past season. allowing the most goals at even-strength, while finishing 26th in goals-for. Their Corsi-for (at even strength, score adjusted) was 47.3%, 24th in the league, while their percentage of scoring chances was 45.6%, ranking them 26th in the league.

Goaltending was a key contributor to the Oiler’s issues this past season. The tandem of Ben Scrivens (28 years old) and Victor Fasth (32) finished last in adjusted save percentage at even strength. Of the 48 goalies who played a minimum of 1,000 minutes in 2014/2015, Scrivens and Fasth finished 46th and 48th, respectively (Source: War on Ice). Below is a summary of their performance.

	Age	Games	Save % (Adj)	QS%
B. Scrivens	28	57	90.88	0.373
V. Fasth	32	26	90.36	0.417

Please note, adjusted save percentage takes into account the location of the shots faced by the goalie. Quality starts calculates what percentage of games the netminder gave his team a chance to win (Source: Hockey Abstract). The league average is roughly 0.530.

Current Status

Scrivens has one year remaining on his contract with the Oilers, who will pay him $2.3 million in 2015/2016. Fasth will be an unrestricted free agent as of July 1, 2015, coming off a contract that paid him $3.4 million in his final season (Source: NHL Numbers).
The Oilers have the following goaltenders in their system:
- Richard Bachman – 26 years old (UFA July 1)
- Laurent Broissot – 21 years old
- Tyler Bunz – 22 years old
- Frans Tuohimaa – 22 years old

Key Considerations

The salary cap will be increasing from $69 million to $71.5 million starting next season. Teams like Chicago, Boston, New York and St. Louis, who have players with sizable contracts, as well as prospects needing new contracts, may struggle with cap issues.
Goaltending does not have to be a large financial commitment to ensure success. Anaheim, Washington, Detroit and Tampa Bay were in the bottom five in terms of spending on goalies, and managed to make the playoffs this past season (Source: NHL Numbers)
Goaltending performance tends to decline with age (Source: Globe and Mail). According to one review, “goaltending development tends to peak around 23 and maintains in top form until 26” (Source Pension Plan Puppets).
The acquisition and eventual signing of Scrivens was based on his potential, as he had performed relatively well in LA and Toronto. There is a chance that Scrivens can bounce back next season and challenge for the starting position.
The Oilers have not established an NHL-calibre defence core for the 2015-2016 season yet. At the end of last season, Justin Schultz (23 years old) and Oscar Klefbom (20) were handling top pairing minutes, with the former struggling to produce despite the favorable deployment.

Option 1: Acquire an experienced goalie through free agency.
Risk: Low Cost: Medium/High

To assess the options, I searched for the free agent goalies who played more than roughly 1,000 minutes and had respectable save percentages and/or quality starts. The cost of free agency is typically high due to the volatility of the market.

A. Niemi
Season	Team	Age	Games	TOI	Save % (Adj)	Save % (High and Medium Danger Shots)	QS%
2010/2011	S.J	27	60	2,813.8	93.45	88.84	0.617
2011/2012	S.J	28	68	3,166.2	93.25	88.62	0.529
2012/2013	S.J	29	43	2,034.5	93.08	88.14	0.674
2013/2014	S.J	30	64	2,949.1	92.37	86.78	0.469
2014/2015	S.J	31	61	2,899.2	92.83	87.17	0.542

M. Neuvirth
Season	Team	Age	Games	TOI	Save % (Adj)	Save % (High and Medium Danger Shots)	QS%
2010/2011	WSH	22	46	2,069.1	92.57	87.86	0.477
2011/2012	WSH	23	38	1,593.2	92.02	86.92	0.500
2012/2013	WSH	24	13	576.3	91.46	84.80	0.583
2013/2014	BUF/WSH	25	15	650.5	92.69	89.18	0.692
2014/2015	NYI/BUF	26	32	1,477.0	93.13	87.66	0.531

J. Enroth
Season	Team	Age	Games	TOI	Save % (Adj)	Save % (High and Medium Danger Shots)	QS%
2010/2011	BUF	22	14	619.3	92.94	86.25	0.538
2011/2012	BUF	23	26	1,098.0	93.13	89.46	0.682
2012/2013	BUF	24	12	490.5	93.7	89.93	0.778
2013/2014	BUF	25	28	1,241.1	93.45	89.78	0.538
2014/2015	DAL/BUF	26	50	2,302.4	92.34	87.33	0.429

Option 2: Acquire an experienced goalie through trade.

Risk: Medium Cost: Medium/High

Because teams are either up against the cap or have an excess of capable goalies, established netminders may be available this summer, so it would be worth assessing the potential trade options. This option would require dealing existing assets, either players or draft picks, and may leave a gap in other areas of the roster.

C. Anderson
Season	Team	Age	Games	TOI	Save % (Adj)	Save % (High and Medium Danger Shots)	QS%
2010/2011	OTT/COL	29	51	2226.8	92.45	87.56	0.592
2011/2012	OTT	30	63	2724.6	93.02	87.64	0.567
2012/2013	OTT	31	24	1086.2	94.59	89.33	0.708
2013/2014	OTT	32	53	2321.2	92.85	88.06	0.500
2014/2015	OTT	33	35	1597.1	93.63	89.81	0.571

B. Elliott
Season	Team	Age	Games	TOI	Save % (Adj)	Save % (High and Medium Danger Shots)	QS%
2010/2011	COL/OTT	25	55	2362	90.96	83.33	0.333
2011/2012	STL	26	38	1737.8	94.73	91.29	0.778
2012/2013	STL	27	24	1029.8	92.68	87.79	0.600
2013/2014	STL	28	31	1293.8	92.29	87.92	0.600
2014/2015	STL	29	46	2021.7	92.83	88.84	0.600

C. Crawford
Season	Team	Age	Games	TOI	Save % (Adj)	Save % (High and Medium Danger Shots)	QS%
2010/2011	CHI	25	57	2686.5	93.46	89.09	0.618
2011/2012	CHI	26	57	2538.8	92.41	87.06	0.491
2012/2013	CHI	27	30	1372.1	93.98	89.39	0.679
2013/2014	CHI	28	59	2738.6	92.98	89.12	0.554
2014/2015	CHI	29	57	2676.9	93.83	88.73	0.696

Option 3: Acquire a goalie that has limited experience but has potential upside.
Risk: High Cost: Low

This option would involve the most risk, and would involve extensive collaboration with the scouting department and possibly further data analysis. A number of unproven goalies have excelled in the right situation such as Ben Bishop (TB), Devan Dubnyk (MIN) and Jonathan Bernier (TOR). The key will be to keep the cost low and refrain from dealing high-end prospects or future first round picks.

C. Talbot
Season	Team	Age	Games	TOI	Save % (Adj)	Save % (High and Medium Danger Shots)	QS%
2013/2014	NYR	26	21	961	94.24	90.32	0.842
2014/2015	NYR	27	36	1689.5	93.51	89.65	0.500

M. Jones
Season	Team	Age	Games	TOI	Save % (Adj)	Save % (High and Medium Danger Shots)	QS%
2013/2014	L.A	23	19	862.3	95	93.2	0.722
2014/2015	L.A	24	15	626.5	92.31	87.84	0.455

A. Raanta
Season	Team	Age	Games	TOI	Save % (Adj)	Save % (High and Medium Danger Shots)	QS%
2013/2014	CHI	24	25	1115.1	90.59	84.35	0.545
2014/2015	CHI	25	14	659.5	94.54	90.8	0.667

Recommendations

The Oilers must solidify their goaltending in order to compete for the playoffs next season. This will be costly as the team lacks organizational depth, and has failed in developing a netminder on their own. The team must explore all options, including free agency and trade.

Having reviewed the options and the players available, it would be best if the Oilers moved forward with one established goalie, supported by a netminder that has the potential to be a starter. The team will have to keep the cost of goaltending low as the team must acquire defencemen this summer, likely through free agency.

Ben Scrivens is a good-to-average goalie with numbers to indicate that he has the potential to bounce back and possibly push for the starting position. It would not make sense, at this point, to acquire another goalie like Talbot or Martin, who are in a similar situation as Scrivens.

B. Scrivens
Season	Team	Age	Games	TOI	Save % (Adj)	Save % (High and Medium Danger Shots)	QS%
2011/2012	TOR	25	12	545.2	91.66	87.80	0.455
2012/2013	TOR	26	20	808.5	92.33	86.34	0.588
2013/2014	EDM/L.A	27	39	1728.3	93.43	89.59	0.629
2014/2015	EDM	28	57	2650.4	90.88	86.20	0.373

The Oilers must acquire a proven netminder such as Neuvirth through free agency, or Elliott through trade. Both Niemi and Crawford would be expensive acquisitions, with the former likely commanding a term that takes him to retirement. It may be beneficial for the Oilers to acquire a player that has familiarity with the western conference, and can handle a higher proportion of high-quality shots and scoring-chances against.

Whichever goalie the Oilers acquire must be placed in a position to succeed. The team must improve the defense by acquiring at least two established defencemen this summer and find an experienced coach that can maximize this teams potential. Moving forward the team has to establish a long term plan and developmental strategy for prospects to ensure that the club is not in this situation again.

The McDavid Effect

April 24, 2015April 24, 2015 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

Source: TSN.ca

When Bill Daly turned the golden card, I honestly didn’t even hear the words (might have zoned out). I just saw the card and laughed maniacally for a good 15 minutes, frightening my kids in the process. I was happy to hear McDavid would be coming to Edmonton. But I was laughing at what the fallout would be for the roster, for the fans and for the city. And especially what the perception and outrage would be outside of Edmonton.

The negativity towards the team by outsiders is warranted. This team has been pitiful for almost a decade, so the thought of McDavid heading to a poorly managed organization will fire up a lot of people. And the negativity will grow similar to how the Penguins get taunted because they have Crosby and Malkin. The hate towards Edmonton is real folks, and it’s gonna get worse once McDavid in the lineup.

Getting a talented player like McDavid is going to put pressure on management to get their act together. Get a goaltender. Get a couple defencemen. And get a coach. Surround this “generational talent” with the right players, because the entry-level years are going to fly by. And like Darcy mentioned in the Lowdown with Lowetide roundtable, McDavid will be commanding good money once the three years are done, and it’ll be around the time that Hall and Eberle are finishing up their mega-contracts. The pressure will be from fans and from the entire league to ensure this player does well, so the Oilers have moved towards adding experience to the front office.

What the addition of McDavid also does is improve the Oilers chances of signing some free-agents who may not have considered Edmonton a possible destination. And the Oilers increased their chances even more by bringing in Chiarelli, who can leverage his network to connect with players, or even rival GMs if he chooses to go the trade route.

The roster will have to be revamped as soon as possible, pushing those that were MacTavish’s acquisitions (i.e., Schultz, Nikitin) towards the exit. I’m hoping that Chiarelli moves forward building off the success of the existing minor league program, and refrain from bringing in say, his Boston/Providence connections. Lateral moves, something that happened when Eakins was coach, really aren’t necessary.

Chiarelli as GM gives me a lot more confidence in Oilers management. He’s the first GM hired by the Oilers who has past experience as GM. Plus he has a familiarity, and a relationship, with managers across the league, something MacTavish was still in the process of building towards. I didn’t mind the hiring of MacTavish as I thought he’d be able to bring some new ideas and apply something from his graduate school experience. But really, he should’ve been placed in an assistant GM role first before making the jump. Similar to what Steve Yzerman did with Detroit before moving on to Tampa Bay.

A lot of changes have been made because of McDavid and the kid has yet to play a game. We’re already feeling the impact as fans, and I think there’ll be even more to come especially with player personnel this summer. And if the off season changes are this big, imagine what impact McDavid will have on his teammates and the overall success of the on-ice product when the season starts.

This should be fun.

Recommended Links

Old Boys Club Pronounced Dead – Copper and Blue

Beautiful Sunday – Lowetide

Bottoms Up: The Kool-Aid Kid – Oil Acumen

Is…Is This Happiness? – Black Dog Hates Skunks

Edmonton Oilers Shouldn’t Expect Connor McDavid to Match Sidney Crosby’s Rookie Scoring – Cult of Hockey

Mieux Respirer – Lowetide

Saving Justin Schultz

April 24, 2015April 24, 2015 / sunilagni / 2 Comments

Source: Edmonton Oilers

One of the most glaring weaknesses on the Oilers this past season, and the year prior, has been the blueline. Both seasons under MacTavish have started and ended without a complete, competitive, NHL caliber defense core.

One member of the Oilers defence who has taken a lot of flak, for good reason, has been young Justin Schultz.

As you recall, Schultz leveraged an existing clause in his contract with Anaheim to leave the Ducks, who had drafted him 42nd overall in the 2009 draft, to become an unrestricted free agent, coming straight out of college. A number of teams expressed interest, with the Oilers being his chosen destination.

If you were his agent, you saw the obvious need on defence in Edmonton, and recognized the ample opportunity available for Schultz in terms of ice time and linemates up front. In his three seasons with the Oilers, he has been given an absurd amount of ice time for a prospect, spending the vast majority of time with the high end talent up front. He’s been labelled as an offensive-defenceman since college, so the Oilers have tried their best to put him in a position to succeed.

Unfortunately, things just haven’t gone well for Schultz. Despite the ice time, over the years and the offensive zone starts, especially this year, Schultz has struggled to produce both in terms of points and possession (Source: War on Ice).

	20122013	20132014	20142015
Games	48	74	81
Goals	4	9	6
Assists	7	10	13
Points	11	19	19
Points per 60	0.82	0.89	0.77
% of Offensive Zone Starts	47.95%	45.17%	62.85%
Corsi For %	42.99%	41.69%	49.24%
Corsi For per 60	47.11	45.33	54.01
Corsi Against per 60	62.47	63.42	55.69
Shots For %	42.05%	42.17%	50.01%

It’s clear that the Oilers rushed Schultz into the NHL, giving him top minutes in his first three seasons but with little support around him, unlike other comparable college players. He’s an excellent skater and can move the puck well, especially in the offensive zone. But his defensive lapses and poor passing out of his own zone are a sign of inexperience and undeveloped skill. Ideally, he should be in the minors working out these things, but instead he’s being paid, and paid quite well, to learn the position at the NHL level.

Having said that, we have to consider that this defencemen is only 24. We know it takes longer to learn this position, with most hitting their primes much later than say a winger or a centerman.

So what I did was take a look at the top 10 defencemen by zone starts (minimum 250 mins played) just to see if there are comparables to Schultz. The idea being that maybe there were others that had similar numbers as Schultz despite the high percentage of offensive zone starts. And maybe they improved later on or teams found a way to get more out of the player. Note: Corsi is based on Score adjusted formula.

2014/2015 (Defencemen, 5v5)
Name	Age	Team	ZSO%	Gm	TOI	P60	CF%	C+/-	SF%
Jamie.McBain	26	L.A	69.40	26	288.38	1.25	53.82	37.07	55.40
David.Rundblad	23	CHI	68.66	49	582.18	1.24	56.04	127.40	52.72
Jakub.Kindl	27	DET	67.79	35	460.07	0.78	58.45	133.44	56.49
Justin.Schultz	24	EDM	62.85	81	1483.86	0.77	49.24	-41.43	50.01
Dan.Boyle	38	NYR	61.54	65	1040.77	0.69	53.96	149.55	53.88
Xavier.Ouellet	21	DET	61.41	21	312.95	0.58	58.59	88.29	55.32
Brian.Campbell	35	FLA	61.01	82	1444.07	0.54	54.08	204.08	55.02
Victor.Hedman	23	T.B	60.88	59	971.88	1.36	54.68	159.00	54.94
Aaron.Ekblad	18	FLA	60.70	81	1385.90	0.95	53.49	168.91	55.05
Brayden.McNabb	23	L.A	60.32	71	996.67	1.14	57.74	259.39	57.34

2013/2014 (Defencemen, 5v5)
Name	Age	Team	ZSO%	Gm	TOI	P60	CF%	C+/-	SF%
Torey.Krug	22	BOS	65.87	79	1114.61	1.02	56.55	274.34	55.88
Michal.Rozsival	35	CHI	65.04	42	624.79	0.77	59.66	201.64	59.74
John.Moore	22	NYR	63.42	74	1005.41	0.60	51.42	51.85	52.89
Eric.Gelinas	22	N.J	62.99	60	828.93	0.80	52.65	68.32	49.58
Nick.Leddy	22	CHI	62.95	82	1132.65	1.01	57.82	309.39	57.23
Kevan.Miller	25	BOS	62.08	47	710.35	0.42	52.60	61.99	51.88
Ryan.Murphy	20	CAR	61.69	48	713.42	0.67	47.43	-69.48	45.32
Dennis.Wideman	30	CGY	61.60	46	794.11	1.06	44.86	-152.64	48.55
Sheldon.Brookbank	32	CHI	61.31	48	584.19	0.72	52.01	41.82	51.57
Carlo.Colaiacovo	30	STL	60.80	25	329.73	0.55	53.08	34.84	53.09

2012/2013 (Defencemen, 5v5)
Name	Age	Team	ZSO%	Gm	TOI	P60	CF%	C+/-	SF%
Marc-Andre.Bergeron	31	CAR/T.B	74.16	25	266.18	0.68	54.35	42.32	54.10
Alec.Martinez	25	L.A	64.29	27	360.77	0.50	59.55	112.56	59.64
Peter.Harrold	29	N.J	63.75	23	336.75	0.18	60.67	102.58	56.47
Michal.Rozsival	34	CHI	63.07	27	419.07	1.43	61.89	165.05	62.58
Bobby.Sanguinetti	24	CAR	62.06	37	468.82	0.51	56.12	109.72	54.92
Patrick.Wiercioch	22	OTT	61.90	42	525.44	0.91	58.04	160.11	55.73
Brian.Campbell	33	FLA	60.91	48	923.54	0.45	49.65	-11.39	48.90
Paul.Postma	23	WPG	60.71	34	429.88	0.70	52.32	35.50	49.62
T.J..Brennan	23	FLA/BUF	60.71	29	419.41	0.86	47.71	-34.63	47.47
Derek.Morris	34	PHX	60.00	39	654.12	0.64	52.54	62.27	51.33

Oof.

Well, what we see here is that if you’re starting that much in the offensive zone, you SHOULD have a respectable Corsi For % and a decent shot share. And if you don’t…well, that’s a bad sign. Schultz stands out, along with players like Dennis Wideman, as the few that got poor results despite the favorable minutes. Note: I did go back to 2006 and got similar findings.

The Oilers management group appears to be enamored with young Schultz, handing him a $3.75M contract last summer, while pushing an established defencemen like Jeff Petry out of the organization. If this management group, including the new members on board, feel that Schultz is part of the plan’s moving forward, they’ll have to do a few things.

Manage the expectations of the player by choosing actions and words carefully. Avoid Norris trophy references and label Schultz for what he is: a prospect with second pairing capabilities and a good powerplay option. Reduce his minutes and deploy more experienced players in the offensive zone. Which leads to point 2…
Get legit, NHL defencemen to take on the top minutes. These players have to be in their late 20’s with at least 300 NHL games played. Offensive zone starts are hard to come by, so when you’re there, have your best available option out there. At the top of my list would be Andrej Sekera. And the more I read about him, I’m learning more about his old defensive partner in Carolina, Justin Faulk (we got McDavid, so hey, why not try to land both of them?). An experienced defenceman could also partner with Schultz, and stabilize the play when Schultz is joining the rush.
Improve the goaltending and reduce the amount of time the team is trailing. In a situation where a team is pressing for a goal, players like Schultz are relied on heavily. Hopefully Scrivens can bounce back from a pitiful season, but I’d bring in a Cam Talbot type to stabilize the netminding.

Schultz has a lot of work to do this summer in terms of his defensive work, especially in his own zone. There were a few too many times he looked lost, often chasing forwards from the front of the net to the corner, leaving a passing lane wide open. Offensively, he created chances, but he was often caught up ice, allowing a 2-on-1 going the other way.

It’s unfortunate that Schultz has transitioned from being a prospect to being more of a project for the Oilers. The good news is, teams can have an offensive defenceman on their roster, even with defensive flaws. They just have to make sure the rest of the defensive roster is well built with a legitimate number one pairing. The Oilers have an opportunity to resurrect a young player’s career, but only if they can make the right moves this summer.

Oilers Defence in HERO Charts

April 22, 2015April 22, 2015 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

Below are the HERO (Horizontal Evaluative Rankings Optic) charts for the Oilers defencemen. These charts have been created and maintained by Domenic Galamini and serve as a fantastic visualization tool. He’s clearly put some thought into what metrics are used and how the data is laid out for forwards and defencemen.

As with any analytics, these charts do not serve as an end-point for discussion and really should be used as a starting point for further analysis. Please note, the charts include the past three seasons (2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15).

I found that the charts were pretty accurate in labeling the Oilers defencemen as first, second or third pairing. Obviously there’s other factors to consider, but I think the metrics give some good insight into the players.

One note from the Own the Puck:

What does vTO mean? It stands for “versus Teammates and Opposition”. For example, GF60 vTO is calculated as follows… ( GF60 – Teammate GF60 ) + ( League Avg GF60 – Opposition GA60 ). All stats used in the calculation of vTO metrics are adjusted for zone starts by nixing play that occurs within 10 seconds of off and def zone faceoffs.

Andrew Ference