Connor McDavid hasn’t looked healthy since training camp, and it’s reflected in his on-ice and individual numbers. In my latest post for Oilersnation, I looked into his even-strength performance this season and how his issues could be dragging down the team’s results.

McDavid’s on-ice share of expected goals is 10.5 percent lower this season than the last three seasons, currently sitting at 52.22 percent – the fourth lowest on the Oilers among forwards. Offensively, the Oilers have seen a drop in their rate of chances with McDavid on the ice, going from 3.42 expected goals per hour to 3.01 – a 12.0 percent decrease. And defensively, the team’s rate of expected goals against has increased by almost 13 percent with McDavid on the ice. Again – this is way out of expected ranges for McDavid and can negatively impact the Oilers’ odds of out-scoring opponents and winning games.

What’s especially alarming is how his numbers compare to his teammates. Historically, the team sees a major spike with McDavid on the ice, with the expected goals for percentage increasing by close to 10. It’s the opposite this season, with the expected goals share decreasing by 8.29 with McDavid deployed, indicating that having McDavid on the ice is a bit of a liability. And opponents are taking full advantage of the situation, outscoring the Oilers 8-5 when McDavid has been deployed this season at even-strength.

Sunil Agnihotri/Oilersnation

Full article is at Oilersnation.