Something I touched on last night was how the Ducks have dominated the Oilers at 5v5 this series, outscoring them 12-6, and posting a Corsi For% of 55.5%. A big reason why the Oilers are in the series and tied with the Ducks is their powerplay and Talbot’s performance in game two.

Here’s a breakdown of the goal and shot-share the Oilers have posted in their four games against Anaheim.

What’s interesting is that while the Flames got swept in the first round by the Ducks, their event-shares were better than the Oilers over their four games.

The difference?

A shooting percentage of 1.94%(!), which is absurdly low (average is usually around 7-8% in the regular season), and some mediocre goaltending. They finished their series having been outscored 9-2. Side note: the Oilers currently have a 7.59% shooting percentage this series.

The Oilers have generated 1.95 goals/60 against Anaheim, while the Flames only generated 0.64. What’s worth noting is that the Flames allowed 2.87 goals against/60, while the Oilers have allowed 3.9 goals/60. The Oilers team save percentage (88.9%) in the second round has actually been worse than Calgary’s was in the first round (90.3%).

In terms of generating and allowing events against the Ducks, the Flames were the better team compared to Edmonton. The metric that jumps out for me is the rate of shots on goal each team allowed. The Oilers are allowing 35 per hour, while the Flames allowed 29.

The Oilers are fortunate to be in the series, considering their outputs. They’ll need a strong performance from their top line, and do a better job defending and suppressing shots.

And a friendly reminder: Anything can happen in the playoffs.

Data: Natural Stat Trick