The Oilers Secondary Scoring Isn’t Getting Better

A key concern for the Oilers this season has been their inability to generate offence when McDavid is not on the ice. After 61 games, the Oilers rank 9th in the league, and 4th in the west, when it comes to goal-share at even-strength (5v5) play with 52.7%. With McDavid on the ice, the Oilers have outscored their opponents 52-34, a fantastic goals-for percentage of 60.5%. Without him, however, the team has been outscored 71-65, which translates to a 47.8% goal-share. While the club continues to do well as a whole, it’s largely riding on the shoulders of their young captain.

Here’s how the team’s goal-share has trended this season, broken out into 25-game, rolling segments. With McDavid on the ice, the team’s share of the total goals has typically been above 55%, which isn’t surprising considering his ridiculous skill and ability to generate offence. Without him, the team’s share of goals was initially pretty steady around the 45% mark over the first two months of the season, and that number has gradually increased towards the 50% mark over December and January as the other lines finally started producing goals. It’s worth noting that the team’s shooting percentage without McDavid on the ice was around 6.5% early on in the season, but that has since moved up to 7.5% in the more recent stretch of twenty five games.

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So by the looks of it, things appear to be getting better for the team without McDavid on the ice. However, when we look at the team’s share of shot attempts and how that has trended over the course of the season, we see that the improved goal-share may not exactly be sustainable. The club currently ranks 17th in the league when it comes to Corsi For% with 50.2%, a rather discouraging drop considering they ranked in the top 10 in the league at one point. With McDavid on the ice, the Oilers are golden with a Corsi For% of 54.2%; without him on the ice, that number drops down to 48.1%.

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If we look at the 25-game rolling segments of shot-share, we actually see that there’s been a gradual decline without McDavid on the ice, with the team having posted a very troubling 45% Corsi For% over the last 25 games (which is since the end of December).

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

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2 thoughts on “The Oilers Secondary Scoring Isn’t Getting Better

  1. It’s almost like once McDavid showed up the other core players stepped aside. The arrogance and swagger has gone. Even if Eberle picks up his game, I’m guessing PC is looking to move him, it just seems there is too much baggage. RNH has had to carry the load as far as being the defensive minded player the last 3-4 years and he has forgotten what got him to the dance. Maybe he turns around his game, for Eberle, I think a new location works for him and the Oilers. There are plenty of crap teams looking for a scorer, teams that put up with all his faults as long as he scores, because they have to. That’s where Eberle will flourish again. Vegas would be a good place for Eberle to re-build himself, maybe a 2018 1st round pick, the Oilers would have to give Vegas another player who would be top 6 or top 4 on defence. Vegas will need some players who help get them to the cap floor, preferably these players actually contribute unlike the Arizona approach.

    • I’d be patient with Eberle, to be honest. He’s a proven winger who is having a down year. Mind you, if the right deal appeared and the Oilers can bring in another player who produces just as well, and a little cheaper, they should definitely go for it.

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