Some interesting comments from Todd McLellan this morning, who talked about the importance of players doing well over the last stretch of games. McLellan specifically mentioned those who will be restricted and unrestricted free agents this summer and referenced players from last seasons roster.

I did a study the other day and went back and looked at Edmonton’s roster from last year and the number of players that played in an Oiler jersey at one point. And, if I’m driving home in my car and I’m saying to myself “well if it’s not in Edmonton it’s going to be somewhere else”, I’d go do that homework. Because for a lot of them it wasn’t somewhere else, it was nowhere. And we’re in 28, 29, 30 range. Those players aren’t quite as desirable as Stanley Cup champs even if it’s on par. (Source: 630 CHED)

For reference, here’s the list of UFA’s and RFA’s this summer (Source: General Fanager). McLellan did mention that even the top players need to do well over this last stretch, but we know moving guaranteed contracts is a lot tougher.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

After blowing two one-goal leads last night against the Predators, I thought it would be worth looking into the underlying numbers to see what might be going on with the Oilers. This wasn’t the first time the Oilers played so poorly with the lead as it’s felt like a reoccurring issue since the start of the season.

Now you could make the case that the Oilers have poor underlying numbers in all score situations at 5v5 to begin with. And that it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they’re bad with a one goal lead, which is fair. Below are the Oilers numbers when it comes to their share of shot attempts, scoring chances, and goals for, along with shooting and save percentage (5v5) this season in all score situations and when they lead by one (Source: War on Ice).

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Last week, I looked into how the Edmonton Oilers were doing when it came to generating rebounds, and found that overall, the team is doing better compared to previous seasons. It likely has to do with McLellan’s tactics as he and his coaching staff have preached about the importance of shot volume and attacking the blue paint since October.

What’s also become critical for the Oilers to generate scoring chances is getting the initial shot on goal from the defence, something that the OIlers have been struggling with since the start of the season. As of today, the Oilers have 27.6% of their shot attempts blocked at 5v5, one of the worst percentages in the league, ranking them 27th overall. This is definitely something the Oilers’ coaching staff is aware of and was even pressing when it came to Justin Schultz’s performance back in December.

The one area we continue to emphasize with Justin is the willingness to continue to shoot the puck. The ability to hit the net when you do shoot the puck. And letting him know that, and encouraging him that, when you do shoot that creates offence for everybody. Even if that first shot doesn’t get in, if it gets through, that’s what leads to the second chance or third chance. But it’s vital that that shot gets through from the top. – Assistant Coach Jay Woodcroft on Inside Sports (Source)

Lately, I had been noticing that Andej Sekera’s shots in particular were getting blocked more often than his teammates, but figured it was because he was on the ice so often and taking plenty of shots to make up for it. When I came across a few tweets from fellow bloggers, I thought it would be worth looking into.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

An area that I expected the Oilers to improve upon this season was overall shot generation and creating chances around the opponents net. This was mainly due to the fact that Todd McLellan had a lot of success in San Jose relying heavily on volume shooting to control the possession battle and win games.

Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone. – Todd McLellan (Source)

Couple things to keep in mind when it comes to McLellan’s volume shooting. From my own analysis last summer, I found that a higher proportion of shot attempts (i.e., Corsi) came from the defence core in San Jose when McLellan was coaching. It was also found in the data from zone entry projects that McLellan’s Sharks weren’t very strong in the neutral zone, but found success by dumping the puck frequently and generating chances off of that (Source: Hockey Graphs).

So far it looks like the Oilers have implemented McLellan’s tactics and have improved when it comes to overall shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5v5. The issue is that they still allow a lot of shot attempts, so they haven’t exactly seen their share of shot attempts improve much (Source: Corsica Hockey).

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Since the disastrous home-stand a few weeks ago where the Oilers lost five straight, the club has been playing much better, going 4-3 and posting some respectable numbers. Of the three losses, I’d say that the only one that really stung was against the Blue Jackets. The other two losses were tight games, on back-to-back nights, against Los Angeles and Anaheim, who at this point are two legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. All in all, it’s been a solid run, but one in which the Oilers have been getting a 94.5% save percentage from their goaltending at even-strength (Source: War on Ice).

What I’ve found odd is the teams emphasis on being “scrappy” over this recent stretch of games. I honestly can’t think of a day where Todd McLellan or one of the players haven’t mentioned the word “scrappy” or “meat and potatoes”. This just doesn’t jive well since it;s obvious that the team is relying on some outstanding goaltending and haven’t really improved much in other facets of the game like team defence or shot generation.

I get that the team has been playing some physical games, with plenty of fights and after-the-whistle events. But if these things don’t translate into goals and wins, I tend to overlook it. But I figured it’d be worth looking into the numbers a little more to see was if I was missing something that would suggest that this team might be turning a corner and actually playing a “scrappy”, hard-to-play-against style. And if they are in fact playing a new style, then it should show up in the numbers, especially the ones that measure the different events against.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Even though the Oilers are heading into another playoff-less season, there have been plenty of bright spots in 2015/16. The emergence of Brandon Davidsonand Oscar Klefbom, the play of Cam Talbot. The bounce-back season forTaylor Hall. And of course Connor McDavid.

Another player that deserves a ton of attention is young Leon Draisaitl, who has been killing it as the team’s top line center. Partnered with Taylor Hall, the duo has been driving play on a nightly basis, generating shots, scoring chances and points. Relative to his teammates, Draisaitl has been a positive player, with the club doing much better when it comes to important metrics when he and Hall are on the ice. Here’s how Draisaitl has done at 5v5 so far this season (Source: War on Ice).

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

A player that could be of interest to the Edmonton Oilers this summer is 27 year old Milan Lucic. There have been rumblings that the Oilers could potentially add another player with size to play in their top nine, along with Patrick Maroon and Zack Kassian, with Lucic being at the top of the list of potential acquisitions.

I wrote an article on Lucic about a month ago and came away with this: Lucic is a solid forward, who brings size to a roster and can play top line minutes. But his point production has been declining and is expected to decline further based on his style of play. He really isn’t worth the dollars and term he’ll likely be commanding (guessing more than $6 million over at least six seasons), and is actually producing at a similar rate as the reliable, and cheaper, Benoit Pouliot.

But since people are talking about Lucic again, I thought I’d look at the numbers once more. Maybe I’m missing something, who knows.

At first glance, it’s easy to see why teams will likely be inquiring about the forward who hits free agency this summer. He’s big, he fights, he has produced at a first line rate (Appendix A: Warrior Chart) and he’s only 27. Below are his 5v5 numbers since he broke into the league (Source: War on Ice).

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

General Manager Peter Chiarelli did a nice job adding the size he wanted by acquiring forward Patrick Maroon from the Anaheim Ducks on Monday afternoon. Knowing full well that the player’s value is at a low point, and the fact that the Ducks needed to clear space on their wing for their new additions, Chiarelli gave up very little and even had the Ducks cover 25% of Maroon’s annual salary. TheOilers now have a low risk, reclamation project on their roster, who could potentially be one of the few value contracts on the team. Maroon’s price point is fair if he finds a role in the bottom six, and would be a bargain if he slots into a scoring line and produces.

The trade to bring in Maroon also indicates to me that Chiarelli isn’t going to over spend on size and would rather bring in these types of players on reasonable contracts. I’m hoping that this means the Oilers won’t be pursuing someone like Milan Lucic, who is an excellent player, but will more than likely command dollars and term if he hits free agency this summer. Players who bring a physical element to the game tend to regress rapidly as they age, and I would hate to see the Oilers invest in someone whose productivity is likely to decline.

What we know about Maroon is that over his last three seasons with the Ducks, he’s produced well and has some nice underlying numbers. This season, however, Maroon has played poorly, and appears to have taken a step back when it comes to possession and scoring. Corey put together a solid summary of Maroon’s numbers, but after reading that, I wanted to know more about his struggles and if there’s anything the Oilers should consider in regards to his deployment over the next 17 games.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

With the trade deadline coming up, I thought it’d be worth looking at how the different combination of forwards and defencemen have done this season when it comes to Corsi at even-strength (5v5). I focused on the seven regular defencemen, who have played at least 30 games, and the forwards who have played at least 300 minutes. I also included Kassian who has only played 160 minutes, but is active on the roster. Got this idea for a high level analysis from Travis Yost who continues to do some great work for TSN.

Below is a table of the different combinations and their Corsi For% at even-strength. The team Corsi For% is 48.9%, good for 18th in the league. So if a combinations’ Corsi For% was above that I colored it blue. And if it was below, it’s orange (Source: Hockey Analysis).

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

It still boggles my mind that Nugent-Hopkins is being considered as expendable as the Oilers are only now, after a very long time, having some semblance of depth at the center position. Having said that, if the right deal is in place, no one on this roster, except for McDavid, should be considered untouchable.

My reasons for keeping RNH are pretty straighforward: centers are hard to come by, especially when they’re 22 and already have over 4 years of NHL experience playing against the best opposition and posting some very nice numbers at even-strength.  Nugent-Hopkins has scored 125 points at 5v5 since 2011, which ranks him 37th out 221 centers who have played over 100 games in that time period (Source: War on Ice).

But let’s for a moment entertain the thought of trading Nugent-Hopkins to fill a void elsewhere on the roster and consider what the options would be if the Oilers look for another centerman.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.