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Talking Draft Lottery Results and Summer Options on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk about the draft lottery and what the Oilers should do with that 4th overall pick.

Couple things:

  • I’m awful with draft/prospect stuff. I don’t watch a lot of junior hockey, so I rely heavily on what guys like Bob McKenzie and others have to say as well as the data.
  • If I’m Chiarelli, I shop that pick and try to package it with players to acquire help on defence. My second option is to turn that pick into two, or three, picks in the first two rounds. The prospect pool needs a boost, so I’d try to spread the risk of that one pick across two more picks.
  • If all else fails, you take the best player available regardless of position. Honestly, my first take on the 4th pick was “okay good, the Oilers can draft for need now and take one of those defencemen”. But on second thought, the draft is the only time a team can take any player they want for free, no strings attached. You have to take the best player available at this point and rely on your scouts to uncover a prospect in the second and third rounds. If you’re drafting-for-need with the 4th pick, that shows a lack of confidence in your scouting staff.
  • And just a heads up that my colleague over at Copper & Blue, Scott Reynolds, will be posting his analysis of this draft class as he’s done in the past. Really looking forward to that.
  • In case you missed it, I joined the AIH 20416 podcast on Saturday night. Had a great chat with some Jets fans. Happy that they get to pick 2nd.

 

Talking Draft Lottery, Trading Picks, Davidson and Developing Defencemen on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk all things Oilers. Audio link below (starts about five minutes in):

Couple notes:

Talking Oilers Possession Numbers, Korpikoski and Off-season on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 this morning to talk Oilers. Below is the audio starting around the five-minute mark.

We talked about my last two articles that covered the Oilers possession numbers this season and the 25-game stretch where the club was over 50% CF. I also referenced my past article on rebounds from March, which is at The Copper & Blue.

I also mentioned this very insightful article from Hockey Graphs that looked at the importance of handedness on the blueline. Well worth a read and something to consider as the Oilers shop for, hopefully, two right shot defencemen this summer.

With playoffs starting, I was asked by Min Dhariwal for an Oiler fans perspective and what I was looking forward to. Article is up at the CBC News. I’ll (obviously) be pulling for the Ducks since Horcoff, Cogliano AND Perron are there. But I’m also kind of hoping they crash and burn only because they’ll likely make some drastic changes up front and move out one those defencemen. Vatanen is the obvious name, and would be a fine second pairing/powerplay quarterback player.

 

 

Thoughts on the Oilers: Hall, Klefbom, McLellan + Radio Spot on TSN 1260

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Joined Lowetide this morning for my weekly segment on TSN 1260. Audio is below:

Knowing what the needs are now heading into the off-season, I’m glad that Chiarelli didn’t buy out Nikitin or Ference last summer which gives him a lot more cap space to play with. It was still painful watching guys like Nurse and Reinhart struggle during parts of the season, and there should be concern about a players development being negatively impacted. But it’s hard to ignore the task list this summer (defence, center depth, backup goalie), making every dollar count heading into free agency and draft day.

When it comes to the trio of Hall, RNH and Eberle, I’m hoping the Oilers can somehow keep all three and see what they can do with a legitimate defence core behind them. I’m a big fan of Hall and was glad to see he bounced back from last season. The last 25-games weren’t his best, but he finished fifth in the league when it comes to even-strength points, and that’s only behind Kane, Crosby, Kuznetsov and Jagr. He finished 11th in the league when it comes to points per 60 at even-strength with 2.30 (Source: War on Ice). You can’t replace that kind of production easily, so I’d be very reluctant to move him. RNH, in my mind, is going to be critical for the Oilers. He’s a better center option in the top six than Draisaitl, who I’m a big fan of but would rather see him slot up and down the lineup, switching from center to wing as needed. And Eberle is still a good producer and he’s a right shot, something the Oilers are lacking in their top six and on the powerplay. If anyone had to go, I’d move Eberle, but would caution that replacing him would require a free agent acquisition. Maaaybe even David Perron, just throwing it out there.

I did like Chiarelli’s comment that he wouldn’t have to move one of the forwards to land a defenceman. This tells me he’s leaning towards acquiring someone that’ll be an RFA this summer on a team that might not be able to afford them. Teams in a cap crunch will need to take back second or third round picks plus prospects (similar to what Chiarelli himself had to take back when he couldn’t afford to pay Johnny Boychuk). Tyson Barrie and Sami Vatanen, both 24, both are solid on the powerplay, with the former being slightly better when it comes to shot suppression. I’ve seen plenty of both. I’d go with Barrie if it came down to either of them.

Dashboard 1 (13)

While we’re on defencemen, I’m finding the whole narrative about Klefbom being injury prone pretty entertaining. If you’re a GM, would you make a player personnel decision on something that’s luck based (like injuries) or something that’s talent based (i.e., shot attempt metrics)? I’d lean towards the latter and bet on Klefbom being just fine going forward.

I also updated the numbers I ran back in January comparing how the Oilers did with Klefbom in the lineup and without this season. Not surprised that the team allowed more shot attempts without Klefbom, but I was somewhat surprised the increase wasn’t that much more substantial.

KlefbomWOWYupdated

Another thing that caught my attention was McLellan’s praise of the Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian line at the press conference today. I thought this would be an okay fourth line when I first saw them play together, but I haven’t been impressed. And when I dig into the trio’s possession numbers, I honestly don’t know what McLellan sees in them. Mind you, they’ve been together for about 40 minutes at 5v5, but their CF% (adjusted by Corsica Hockey) is 45.70% and they have a PDO of 105. I think McLellan is a great coach and is the right guy for the job. He just gets a little too attached to players and lines even though they don’t work or can help the team (don’t get me started on Korpikoski). I’d give this trio a chance (if they’re all here next season) but would be very quick to change it up if/when things go south.

 

 

Thoughts on Yakupov + Radio Spot

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It’s hard not to be a fan of Nail Yakupov. He’s young, talented and has an excitement for the game that’s easy to support.

And what I think really expedited and really amplified the support for Yakupov was the unfair treatment he received very early in his NHL career. Around the World Juniors tournament, Canadian writers were quick to critique Yakupov for not being accessible, openly questioning his character and professionalism. On top of that, there was plenty of speculation on draft day that the Oilers’ scouts didn’t want Yakupov. So fans had a player in front of them that wasn’t liked by Edmonton based sports writers AND he wasn’t wanted by the Oilers. How could you not love Yakupov at this point?!

Unfortunately, over the past four years, Yakupov hasn’t produced at an acceptable level. He has never put up a good level of point production at  even-strength, with the Oilers often doing better possession-wise when Yakupov is on the bench (Source: War on Ice)

YakupovCF

The other problem for Yakupov has been his performance on the powerplay. Looking at just the team’s generation of unblocked shot attempts (i.e., Fenwick For/60), which is a good predictor of powerplay success, we see that when Yakupov has been on the ice, he’s typically been either near or below the overall team average. (Source: Hockey Analysis). This just isn’t good enough for someone that has offensive ability.

YakupovPPFF60

We also know that the Oilers never really surrounded Yakupov, or any of their prospects for that matter, with reliable, experienced players who could provide rookies with on-ice guidance and mentorship. Since joining the league, Yakupov’s five most common centermen at 5v5 have been Sam Gagner (596:14), Derek Roy (534:15), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (426:05), Mark Arcobello (296.34) and Mark Letestu (215:51). (Source: Hockey Analysis). 

I also compiled a a table containing all of the line combinations Yakupov has been a part of for more than 60 minutes at 5v5 since his rookie season. (Source: Corsica Hockey)

Yak Lineys

If you’re interested, I dug into these line combinations a bit more over at The Copper & Blue.

Couple other things:

I find it pretty amusing that the voting results among the Oilers scouts has been made public. You always have to take a grain of salt with this type of journalism. But I’d be interested in seeing what the results were among the Oilers staff when it came to selecting Mitch Moroz at 32nd overall in the same draft as Yakupov. While we’re at it, why not dig into the Oilers scouting staff’s Taylor vs Tyler vote? Maybe when the information will sell papers, we’ll get access to it.

And let’s not kid ourselves: Yakupov was viewed as a number one pick by hockey scouts and insiders. From Bob McKenzie in June 2012:

..Yakupov has been the more or less undisputed top prospect this year from wire to wire, ranked No. 1 in TSN’s pre-season (mid-September), mid-season, (late January), draft lottery (early April) and final (late May) rankings.

Of the 10 scouts surveyed by TSN for its final rankings, eight pegged Yakupov as the top prospect. Everett Silvertip defenceman Ryan Murrayand Yakupov’s linemate, centre Alexander Galchenyuk, were the only other prospects to get a No. 1 ranking. Each had one.

There’s going to be a lot of crap written about Yakupov over the next few weeks and into the summer and probably well after Yakupov is traded away. The key thing to remember is it’s going to be the same group of Edmonton based writers who chase page clicks and rely on sensationalistic journalism to draw readers. I think we’re lucky to have some very good writers that cover the Oilers, but we have to take some of the crap content at times.

We can’t overlook the fact that Yakupov has worked extremely hard to make it to this point. It’s unfortunate that the Oilers didn’t provide the right environment for him or even considered returning him to junior or loaning him to the KHL knowing full well that he was a one dimensional player on draft day. Instead, we’re left with a cautionary tale (the Oilers have become masters at these) about the importance of development and setting realistic expectations for prospects. It’s my hope that Yakupov finds a new home this summer, is given some quality linemates and coaching, and has reasonable, recalibrated expectations placed upon him.

Talking Oilers, lineup changes, unknown Finnish players on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 talk Oilers. Audio below:

Couple notes:

  • For those interested, a great new source of hockey data is Corsica Hockey. War on Ice is shutting down after this season, but Manny Elk is looking to replace it and introduce some pretty neat tools. Definitely check it out and consider donating to support his work. His project is going to be very transparent, and is intended for public use and knowledge development (things that are critical for modern day fans…can’t say enough about it).
  • I mentioned Patrick Maroon as being very good at getting to rebounds (defined by Corisca Hockey as shots taken within two seconds of the original shot). Rebounds are only part of the game, but they can still give us insight on which players are getting to rebounds, and also which are on the ice for rebounds against (good way to analyze defenceman). I looked into this last week at Copper and Blue.
  • If you’re interested to learn more about the Oilers newest signing Jere Sallinen, definitely check out Bruce McCurdy’s work as well as Jeff Velilette’s. I’ll admit my knowledge of European leagues is limited, so I tend to look to others for insight.
  • I also mentioned the Oilers Nation podcast, North by NorthGretz, which you can listen to here.