A little late getting this one together, but I was interested in seeing if forward Jordan Eberle could be a potential trade target for the Edmonton Oilers at the trade deadline. Depth scoring at even-strength (5v5) is currently a problem for the team, as the club is only converting on 5.97 percent of their shots when McDavid and/or Draisaitl aren’t on the ice – well below league average levels (8.57 percent). And while the Oilers depth players are doing a good job at controlling the flow of play (53.56 percent Corsi For%) and out-chancing opponents (53.30 percent Expected Goals For%), they’ve been outscored 40-48 this season – a goal-share of only 45.45 percent.

Eberle is in the last year of his contract with Seattle, and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer as a 33-year old. He’s put up 695 points in 998 games, and also has that playoff experience hockey managers like, appearing in 76 games including two eastern conference final appearances with the Islanders.

Over the course of his career, Eberle has been pretty consistent putting up second-line level points per hour at even-strength. This season, his rate has slipped slightly to 1.63 per hour, down from the 1.91 points per hour he posted in the previous five seasons.

A key driver for his point totals declining is his personal shooting percentage, which is sitting at 7.14 percent this season. Looking at his historical numbers, there’s been some ebb and flow, but he’s been pretty consistent posting a shooting percentage of 11.74 percent over the previous five seasons. I’d like to think this season is an anomaly just based on how consistent he’s been in the past, but age and wear and tear might be catching up to Eberle.

One reason to be optimistic about Eberle’s shooting percentage bouncing back is his continued ability to generate shots for himself. Over the previous five seasons, Eberle has averaged 7.44 shots per hour at even-strength. This season, he’s generating 7.78. Had this seasons rate of shots been lower than his career levels, I’d feel that maybe he was losing a step and not getting himself into plays often enough. But it appears that skillset is still there, indicating that there’s a chance that more of those shots will eventually turn into goals going forward.

Another reason to be optimistic about Eberle remaining productive is his ability to drive offence for the Kraken at even-strength this season. Eberle continues to be a top-six option for his club and his team tends to out-shoot and out-chance opponents more often when he’s on the ice. The table below lists the Kraken forwards this season, sorted by their total ice-time, including each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. I’ve also included each player’s on-ice shooting and save percentage along with PDO to see what could be impacting their actual results (i.e., goal differential). A basic heat map has been applied to show how each player compares to their peers.

Eberle’s numbers really stand out here. He’s posting some of the best shot-based metrics on the team, indicating that his team tends to do better with him than without him.

What’s interesting to note is that Eberle does appear to be having a bit of a bounce-back season. In the previous two seasons with Seattle, he was posting negative relative-to-team numbers – maybe because he was adjusting to a new system and playing some of the highest minutes on the team. Prior to that, he’d been consistently posting positive numbers, indicating his ability to help drive play and his team’s chances of out-scoring opponents. This season, his numbers appear to be back to where we would expect them to be, making me wonder if his productivity could improve, potentially as an Oiler.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Bit of a disappointing run of games for the Edmonton Oilers in the month of February. After a 16-game winning streak to close out January and head into the All Star Break, the club collected 13 points in 12 games (6-5-1), which translates to a 0.542 points percentage that ranked 20th in the league.

The good news is that the Oilers are still near the top of the Pacific division as Vancouver and Vegas also had poor results in February. Vancouver only secured 12 points in 13 games (0.462 points percentage) and Vegas only secured 9 points in 10 games (0.450 points percentage). Calgary, Los Angeles and Seattle all posted points percentages 0.600 and higher in February.

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue-adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

The Oilers continue to post strong shot-share numbers at even-strength, including a 55.84 percent Corsi For percentage (CF%) and a 57.72 percent Expected Goals For percentage (xGF%). Because their overall team shooting percentage and team save percentage is at or below league average levels, their goal-share isn’t as high as it should be.

With the trade deadline coming up next week, there’s plenty of issues the Oilers management needs to address to be competitive in the playoffs. Goaltending is still a concern for this club as it ranks 14th in the western conference, and the workload has been very high for Skinner (relative to other starting netminders). Depth scoring is a concern as the club has posted a -6 goal differential without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice this season. The third and fourth lines have done a good job creating chances, but they really lack that finishing ability posting a shooting percentage of only 6.01 percent. That’s a problem considering the Oilers have played 47 percent of their time without one of the two star players. Another way to help the bottom six is to have some more talent on defence that can make passes and plays.

A lot of talk about potential trade options, so I thought I’d share the same information for the eastern conference teams. Just to get a sense of which teams are doing well and which teams should be in sell mode if they’re not already.

Detroit is the one club that’s getting better results than expected. Their shot share number are so poor, but they’re finishing their chances enough to keep them in the race. Florida looks legit, but appears to be having some issues with finishing. I’ll be honest, I thought Boston would be looking strong here, but their success doesn’t appear to be sustainable.

Should be an interesting week heading towards the trade deadline. I’ll be curious to see which teams work on addressing their issues, especially clubs like Florida, Carolina and New York – all of which have cup aspirations.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

PS. Just wanted to say thanks to those that continue to read and support my work. I just noticed that February 29th was my eight-year anniversary since I started working with CBC Edmonton as an Oilers analyst. I’ll never forget that day, getting to provide trade deadline analysis in 2016 with host Adrienne Pan on live television. Such a cool experience. I’ve been blogging for much longer, and have had a lot of fun with it. Getting to write with Copper and Blue and being a guest on Lowetide’s show on TSN radio. And now writing for Oilersnation and still doing some radio work with CBC – I feel very fortunate for the opportunities.

The Edmonton Oilers powerplay continues to be near the top of the National Hockey League when it comes to scoring efficiency, ranking second in the league only behind Tampa Bay with 11.14 goals per hour. This is largely driven by their high-end talent who help generate the fifth highest rate of unblocked shot attempts (91.49 per hour) and the second highest rate of actual shots on goal (66.83 per hour). And their team shooting percentage sits at 16.67 percent. The Oilers actual results this season are right in line with where they’ve been over the last three seasons where they’ve posted 11.28 goals per hour between 2020/21 and 2022/23, which translates to a 17.40 percent shooting percentage.

What’s worth noting is that while the results over the full season have been excellent so far, the team’s productivity has slipped slightly over the course of the season. If we split the current 52-game season in half, we see that the finishing ability of the powerplay is down a few percentage points going from 19.08% in the first 26 games, to 14.05% in the most recent 26 games. This has resulted in the goals scoring rate dropping from 12.17 goals per hour in the first half of the season to 9.90 goals per hour in the second half.

It might feel like things are worse than they actually are based on the couple games where the powerplay didn’t score and how players are reacting on the bench shortly afterwards. But the team is still generating plenty of chances, actually seeing a 10.5 percent increase in their rate of shots when comparing the two segments. And they’re still in the range of the shooting percentage we can reasonably expect them to be at (17.40 percent). My guess is that over the last 30 games of the season, we’ll see their shooting percentage bounce back up to where it should be, and things should be calmer.

The reality is that the Oilers have set very lofty standards for their powerplay, and there’s a lot of pressure that’s been built up because of the team’s inability to win titles with such high-end talent on the roster. The powerplay is a massive weapon for the Oilers and it appears the coaching staff is doing everything they can to maximize its output. Over the last 26 games, the first powerplay unit (using Evan Bouchard as the proxy) has played 80.6 percent of the team’s powerplay time – an increase of 6.60 percentage points from the first 26 games of the season where they played 74.0 percent of the total time The first powerplay has responded well to the additional responsibility, generating even more shots in the more recent stretch of games. Their rate of shots on goal has increased by 19.0% from the first 26 games of the season, going from 64.81 shots per hour to 77.15 per hour. So it should be a matter of time before the powerplay heats up again.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Remarkable results for the Edmonton Oilers, posting 16 straight wins over a 37 day stretch between December 21, 2023 and January 27, 2024.

• The Oilers outscored opponents 43-20, a 68.25 percent goals-for percentage, at even-strength (5v5). A big reason for their results was their ability to control the flow of play and generate scoring chances consistently. They posted a Corsi For percentage of 55.91 percent and Expected Goals For percentage of 57.31 percent.
• The Oilers team save percentage was 94.01 percent, third highest in the league. In all situations, the Oilers had the best save percentage in the league with 94.56 percent.
• The Oilers powerplay scored 11 goals, a rate of 10.68 goals per hour that ranked fifth in the league for this time period. Their rate of shots (69.92 per hour) and unblocked shot attempts (94.20 per hour) ranked fourth and fifth in the league, respectively. Their powerplay shooting percentage was 15.28 percent and ranked 14th in the league.
• The Oilers penalty kill only allowed 3 goals, a rate of 2.18 goals against per hour – the lowest in the league. They allowed the second-lowest rate of unblocked shot attempts (62.63 per hour) and the fourth lowest rate of shots against (45.88 per hour). I did a deeper dive on the Oilers penalty kill recently for Oilersnation.

The Oilers dominance was really driven by their top six group, featuring McDavid and Draisaitl. With either of them or both on the ice, the Oilers were at another level, spending a lot of time with the puck and in the opponents zone – which led to a lot of scoring chances.

The share of expected goals, which factors in shot quality, took a massive jump during this winning streak with McDavid on the ice, as his line with Hyman and RNH has been dominant for a few months now. Draisaitl posted excellent numbers as well, especially with McLeod and Foegele. Not much to complain about how the top six has performed.

The bottom six group had some issues at even-strength. While they did post a positive goal differential, it appears a lot of their success was dependent on the goaltending. Without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, so 333 minutes which equates to about 42% of the team’s total time spent at even-strength, the Oilers posted a Corsi For percentage of only 50 percent and an expected goals for percentage of 47 percent. That’s well below their team levels this season, and makes you wonder if this bottom six is up for the task when playoffs roll around.

Below is a high-level snapshot of how each player’s on-ice numbers were at even-strength (5v5) during the 16-game winning streak, split between forwards and defencemen and sorted by total ice-time. Included are the metrics I use to assess a player’s performance (i.e., shots and expected goals) as well as their actual on-ice results (i.e., goal differential). I’ve also included each player’s PDO, which assesses how lucky/unlucky they’ve been, and if we can expect their results to improve over the course of the season. A basic heat map has been applied to show how each player compares to the rest of their squad. 

Interesting to see that Kane only broke even in terms of on-ice goal differential during this 16-game winning streak. Even Brown was +2. Considering how much time Kane got to spend in the top six, especially after publicly complaining about his ice time, you’d expect his numbers to be a little stronger. And somehow Derek Ryan posted a -2 goal differential. On the back end, it was really that top pairing of Bouchard and Ekholm that helped drive results. Should be interesting to see how the Oilers address their issues among the depth forwards up front and on the right side of their defensive group.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

It’s wild to think of the progress the Edmonton Oilers have made since my last check-in at the end of December. At that point, they were “within striking distance of a wild-card spot”, and now they’re sitting comfortably near the top of the Pacific division. A 16-game winning streak, including an 11-0 run in the month of January, can do wonders. And it also shows you what it actually takes to make ground in the NHL standings. After 45 games, the Oilers now have a points percentage of 0.656 – which has them second in the Pacific division and fifth best in the western conference.

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue-adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’sTrick’s methodology.

Not much to say about the Oilers right now. Everything is clicking thanks to their strong play at even-strength where they’ve posted a Corsi For percentage of 55.80% this season (fourth highest in the league) and 55.91% over this current 16-game winning streak. Outside of a couple games where they probably should have lost, they’ve looked really good during this win streak, getting plenty of contributions from across the roster. Powerplay is doing well and the penalty kill has been one of the best in the league.

Couple other observations of the western conference:

• Colorado’s goaltending should be a spot of bother for them, as they rank near the bottom of the western conference with a 90.55% team save percentage. I do wonder if giving Alexander Georgiev the highest workload in the league is going to cost Colorado down the stretch and in the playoffs. They seem to be doing everything else right, getting positive results driven by their strong possession numbers. But I’m guessing they’ll aggressively try to find a stronger goalie who can play a lot of minutes.
• Los Angeles is in a similar situation, having overplayed Cam Talbot, and now they’re reeling just a bit. Thought Todd McLellan would have learned his lesson when he was coaching the Oilers in the 2016/17 season.
• I would still have concerns about Skinner’s workload, something I wrote about recently.
• Vegas isn’t looking as strong as the rest of the teams at the top right now, posting some of the lowest shot-share metrics in the group. But they do a good job balancing their goalies workloads and are getting positive results from them.
• Edmonton is still around league average when it comes to shooting percentage and save percentage at even-strength over the course of the full season. Funny how everything is balancing out like some of us suspected.

A concept I’ve been thinking more about are “clear victories”, and how many the Oilers have secured this season. It’s a concept that Scott Reynolds and Derek Zona of the Copper & Blue tracked back in the day, and it was defined by any win by two or more goals without empty-net goals needed. Clear victories measure a team’s talent better than the win-loss record, and gives us a better idea of which team could have sustainable success. If your team is winning a bunch of one-goal games or needing overtime, chances are that over time, those will eventually turn to losses. But if your team is putting teams away early on in the game, it’s a good sign that they’re roster is talented and that the wins should carry forward.

The good news for the Oilers is that over this 16-game winning streak, nine have been clear victories. They did have a stretch of six wins where only one was a clear victory, which made me think a loss was coming soon. But then they put up three straight right before the NHL all-star break.

Challenge right now is getting that specific data set over multiple seasons. I do have something in the works to not only see how the Oilers are doing when it comes to clear victories, but also how they compare to other teams who have won playoff rounds. Hoping to have something together soon.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

• Points-percentage (Point%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
• Corsi for percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., corsi for/(corsi for + corsi against). This is used as a proxy for possession and is the best at predicting a team’steam’s future share of goals (GF%). (Source: Hockey Great Tapes – Draglikepull)
• Fenwick for percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick for/(Fenwick for + aenwick against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill.
• Expected goals for percentage (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot.
• Goals for percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals for/(Goals for + goals against).
• Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
• Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against)).

Pretty impressive turnaround for the Edmonton Oilers who are seventh in the western conference with a 0.592 points percentage, and fourth-best in the Pacific. They have the fifth best scoring rate in the league in all situations and sixth highest at even-strength (5v5). Their even-strength goal-share of 52.76% is eighth in the league and they’ll need to keep that going. Currently, six of the top ten teams in goal-share are in the western conference, four of which are in the Pacific division.

What’s especially impressive is the number of regulation wins the Oilers have posted since the coaching change. Since Kris Knoblauch took over behind the bench, the Oilers have won 19 games with 15 of them done without overtime or shootout. That’s the fifth highest number of regulation wins in the league since November 12th (when the coaching change happened). Worth noting that 12 of their wins (or 63%) have been by two goals or more – which is a better indicator of the team’s talent than one-goal games.

The Oilers even-strength (5v5) play has been solid, as they’ve outscored opponents 64-46 (58.18% goal-share, +18 goal differential) over the last 25 games since the coaching change. And their underlying numbers, like their 55.52 Corsi for percentage and 58.85 Expected goals-for percentage indicates that the 5v5 results are real and sustainable.

And while the Oilers are making the Pacific division standings interesting again, it’s worth noting that the rest of the teams in the Pacific are also posting some solid underlying numbers. In the last 25 games, the top ten teams in expected goals for percentage features four teams in the Pacific (table below is sorted by xGF%). The difference might come down to special teams, where some of the Pacific division teams are getting results on the powerplay or penalty kill. Covered that in my recent Pacific division check-in here.

It’s also worth keeping tabs on goaltending deployment across the division, which is going to have an impact on their playoff runs. While most teams are going towards a 1B/1A split between goalies, with most starters playing 59.90 percent of the team’s minutes this season, the Oilers are really riding their starter. Stuart Skinner has now played 70.60 percent of the Oilers total minutes this season, which is seventh highest in the league. That’s just behind Thatcher Demko, who has played 70.80 percent of Vancouver’s total minutes, and (interestingly) Cam Talbot who has played 72.90 percent of Los Angeles minutes. May recall Todd McLellan consistently starting Talbot in Edmonton in the 2016/17 regular season, where he played 86.70 percent of the total minutes. And how that impacted the Oilers playoff run that season.

Back to Edmonton’s current situation. If Calvin Pickard isn’t going to get regular deployment to give Skinner a rest and keep him fresh for the playoff race and (hopefully a playoff run), then management needs to address this and get someone the coaching staff actually trusts. Even since the coaching change (and Campbell’s demotion to Bakersfield), it’s been all Skinner who has played 73 percent of the team’s total ice time in the last 25 games.

The top six forward group, now featuring Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele, is also crushing it right now since the Oilers made adjustments during their game against New Jersey on December 21st. Here’s how the top two line have performed over the last nine games at even-strength.

What’s a little concerning is how the bottom six have played the last nine games, with them not creating much and not allowing much either. In 139 minutes over the last nine games, the third and fourth lines have combined for 4 goals for, 4 goals against. And that’s largely because their Corsi For percentage is only 48% and their Expected Goals-for percentage is 45%. A whole lot of nothing going on there, which is concerning considering how big of a role team depth has on long playoff runs. Definitely an area to address by management, especially if McLeod is going to be on the second line.

One last thought on the new second line. It does re-affirm my belief that Draisaitl’s success largely depends on having a linemate that can also play center. McDavid is the obvious example, and so is Nugent-Hopkins who formed a line with Draisaitl and Yamamoto in the past. But I also recall a couple seasons ago when Draisaitl was on a line with Ryan Strome and Jujhar Khaira (both of which played center in their careers on depth lines) and had some decent success with them. In 108 minutes together between 2017-2019 (when Strome was an Oiler), they posted an on-ice goal-share of 56% (5 GF, 4 GA), and had a Corsi for percentage of 52% and an Expected goals-for percentage of 55%. So I’m not totally surprised that Draisiatl has found some chemistry with McLeod.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com