Edmonton Oilers

We’re Still Talking Playoffs, eh?

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With the Pacific Division being as terrible as it’s been this season, there have been some rumblings that the Oilers could, somehow, someway, sneak into the playoffs. Currently, the Oilers are six points back of third place Arizona in the division. Having Connor McDavid and Oscar Klefbom back in the very near future will definitely improve the team, but let’s not kid ourselves. The Oilers aren’t good enough to make the playoffs.

After the Oilers brutal start to the season, going 3-7, my colleague Scott Reynolds looked into how many other teams over the past ten seasons collected only six points in their first 10 games and who had a poor goal differential. The good news is that there were a small handful of teams that went on to make the playoffs or at least push for a playoff spot following a rough start. But from what I found, those teams that started poorly had strong underlying numbers but had scoring and goaltending issues that sunk them early on. The teams that bounced back were good possession teams that saw improvements in their PDO to get back into the playoff picture.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Kassian’s Performance and Options Going Forward

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Following last night’s loss to the Lightning, McLellan was asked what forward Zack Kassian was bringing to the team and what the coach’s overall thoughts were regarding his game:

Zack is a pretty honest player. That’s something that I’ve figured out in his three or four games with us. He wants to do things well. He wants to do things right. His power game and his ability to power his way through and play physical is important. Nice to see him get rewarded with a goal tonight. As time goes on here, I can see myself and the coaching staff trusting him more and more. – Todd McLellan (Source: 630 CHED)

Now Kassian has played relatively well in his four games as an Oilers, scoring a goal and an assist so far. Paired with Mark Letestu, Kassian has averaged just over 15 minutes of ice time at even-strength per night and has been a decent possession player (51.45% Corsi For, score adjusted, +0.62 CF Rel). I’m a little surprised that McLellan was musing about trusting him more, so I took a look at the ice time he was getting, who he was going up against, and how he was faring when it came to shot attempts (Source: Natural Stat Trick).

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Talbot contract, Kassian’s minutes, Nurse + Radio Hit

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss all things Oilers. Audio below.

Couple thoughts:

Talbot

The $4 million per season was a slight overpay, but I can’t say I’m too surprised. Talbot and his agent held a lot of power going into negotiations considering that the Oilers already invested two picks in him and his impending UFA status. I’m not convinced that Talbot would’ve received $4 million in free agency, considering how the other “goalies with potential” did last summer.

If you’re interested,  I wrote about Talbot just a few days before he was signed over at The Copper & Blue. I basically looked at Corey Schenider’s 2012 contract with Vancouver and Martin Jones contract with San Jose last summer as comparables. They were different situations, but I thought those three goalies had some similarities worth exploring.

Like most people, I’m pretty high on young Laurent Brossoit. He’s getting a lot of starts in the AHL right now and playing very well. In my opinion, he should get another full year in Bakerfield before pushing for the backup role. That would mean either signing Nilsson to a value contract or dipping into free agency this summer when there are always options for cheap goaltending.

The other issue is that Laurikainen might not be ready to be a full time starter in the AHL yet. Condors head coach Fleming had this to say recently regarding pushing Brossiot too soon (Source: Oilers Nation)

I think it would be a step back in his development. He needs to play and he needs to play 75% of the games. We have a young guy in (Eetu) Laurikainen and from an organizational standpoint he can benefit and learn from working with ‘LB’ this year much like LB learned from (Richard) Bachman last year. If you asked ‘LB’ he’d be the first one to admit that watching Bachman play last year throughout the season and the playoffs that he learned a lot. You’ve got to pass that on – pay it forward. ‘LB’s playing a lot and he’s learned a lot and he now passes that on to Eetu and from an organizational standpoint everybody benefits. To bring ‘LB’ up now and have him sit on the bench would just be a big step back in his overall development to where they want him to be coming out of this year.

Kassian

The most recent acquisition has been playing steady minutes alongside Mark Letestu for the most part and hasn’t looked out of place in his first two games. Against Calgary, Kassian got a ton of ice time and played against the top six Flames forwards for the most part.

Here’s a graph courtesy of Hockey Viz that shows us how often Kassian started a face-off shift and where he started. He’s definitely not being sheltered, but we’ll have to see what happens with Hendricks, who is Letestu’s regular line mate, gets back in the line up tonight.

deployment-2015020668-EDM

Corsi

Interesting question came in during our segment this morning in regards to Corsi and why a high possession rating hasn’t translated into wins for the Habs. Having a high Corsi For % does not guarantee success…it does improve your chances of winning but, as the Kings could attest to last season, there’s a lot of randomness that has to be factored in. Highly recommend checking out this piece from Arctic Ice Hockey for more on the limitations of Corsi.

As for the Habs, since December 1st, they’ve only had 9 points and the worst goal-differential in the league despite having a Corsi For% (score adjusted) of 53.2%. The problem for the Habs is that their PDO (on-ice shooting % + on-ice save percentage), which measures luck, is the worst in the league at 94.1. Their on-ice save percentage at even-strength is dead last at 90.6% during that stretch. And their shooting percentage since December 1st is the second worst in the league at 5.5%. Prior to December 1? Their PDO was above 102, third highest in the league.

As always, let me know if you have any feedback.

Signing Talbot

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After two straight seasons of finishing in the bottom five of the league when it comes to even-strength save percentage, the Oilers acquired Cam Talbot from the New York Rangers and Anders Nilsson from the Chicago Blackhawksthis past summer. The two have done okay, with each have strong performances sporadically. But the team sits second last in the league when it comes team save percentage at even-strength. At first glance, the two goalies look comparable, each starting 22 games and each carrying a below average adjusted save percentage, which factors in shot location (Source: War on Ice). Among the 30 goalies who have played at least 1,000 minutes this season, these two rank near the bottom, with Talbot ranking dead last using this metric. Please note that I chose Adjusted Save % as it factors in team effects (Source).

NAME GAMES STARTED RECORD ADJUSTED SAVE% (EVEN-STRENGTH)
A. Nilsson 22 10/10/2002 91.89
C. Talbot 22 07/13/2002 90.51

Looking  into the adjusted save percentage month by month (along with the number of games in parentheses), we see that Talbot has improved, while Nilsson has tailed off a bit. Keep in mind, adjusted save percentage ranged from 89.52 to 94.11 last season among goalies that played over 1,000 minutes, which is about 22 games.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Hurry Back Oscar

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The Edmonton Oilers are once again sitting near the bottom of the league, securing a messily 8 regulation wins this season. The team ranks 28th in Goals For% at even-strength with a score-adjusted Corsi For% of 47.4% (Source: War on Ice). Definitely not good enough to compete for the playoffs, but it’s been hard to really judge this team because of all the injuries. Losing Connor McDavid has been significant, but the Oilers have also played a number of games without top six players likeNail Yakupov and Benoit Pouliot and Jordan Eberle for stretches. Injuries are always a part of the game, but it’s hard to dismiss when you’re without some key forwards.

Having said that, it’s been the injury to young Oscar Klefbom that has had the biggest impact on the club. Before going down on December 11th, Klefbom was emerging as the Oilers most effective defenceman, surprisingly, to me at least, at both ends of the ice. My C&B colleague Corey Travers had an excellent post on Klefbom soon after his injurydetailing his performance and confirming his ability to play top pairing minutes.

 I thought it’d be interesting to first see how positive of an impact Klefbom was having on the Oilers’ forwards (the one’s he played at least 100 minutes at even-strength with). And then look at how Klefbom’s absence has impacted the team’s overall defence.
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Loss against Florida, Retribution, Talbot + Radio Hit

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Audio below.

Couple thoughts:

Last night’s game had to have been the third or fourth straight one that was just dreadful to watch. The Oilers cannot sustain any sort of pressure in the offensive zone, rarely picking up rebounds or getting second chances. They may have outshot the Panthers, but they weren’t really a threat around the net. The Oilers are sitting near the bottom of the league when it comes to goals, scoring chances and possession, and I don’t expect much to change until Klefbom and McDavid come back.

 

The hit on Hall was clean in my opinion. I just don’t get why there’s a need for instant retribution, and lacking a quick response is any sort of indication that the team lacks unity or toughness. Hall plays a style that makes him vulnerable to these hits..it’s part of the trade-off to generate offence. If the Oilers want to replace skill with goons, they can’t expect to win. Now if you can find guys that can play physical and have an impact on a nightly basis, and not be a liability, I’m all for it. I’m hoping Khaira can be that guy in a season or two. And I really  wouldn’t spend big money to solve team toughness.

I’m also reminded of this line from Kassian shortly after he broke Gagner’s jaw and the Oilers brought in McIntyre. Loved it.

Also keep in mind that the Sharks management kinda lost their minds last off-season when they thought they needed toughness and signed Mike Brown and John Scott to contracts. Seriously, we should ask Todd McLellan how that worked out for him.

I’m also very interested to see how the team will handle the Cam Talbot contract. He’s been getting better game to game, but it’s hard to judge what his true value is. There’s always that balance between the goalie’s actual value, and how the team perceives his value. The Oilers have already invested two draft picks in him, which really puts Talbot in the driver seat of negotiations. Having said that, the Oilers can point to his record and save percentage and try to portray Nilsson as a candidate for the number one job to drive down the cost. I’ll have to dig into this more, but the three contracts I would point to if I were the Oilers is Martin Jones 3yr/$9M contract with San Jose, Corey Schneider’s 3 yr/$12M contract with the Canucks and Schneider’s 7-year/$42M extension with the Devils. Obviously different situations for each player and team, but based on age and experience, these are the ones I would look at first. Right now, I think Talbot is worth $3.5M per season for four seasons, which would take him through his prime. Based on his play, I don’t think teams will be lining up to sign him as there are always plenty of options in the off-season.

 

Thoughts on the Oilers: Team performance, Nurse, Talbot + Radio Spot

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Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 on Wednesday morning to discuss the Oilers. Full audio below:

Couple things:

  • After 41 games, the Oilers are sitting at 17-21-3, good for dead last in a very weak Pacific division. The 17 wins ranks them 23rd in the league, but their 8(!) regulation wins is 30th. That to me is an issue. Good teams get things done in regulation and avoid the more luck-driven scenarios like 4v4/3v3 overtime and shootouts.
  • The club has a 47.1 Corsi For% (even-strength, score adjusted – which factors in the score state), which is 25th in the league (Source: War on Ice). The Oilers appeared to make some improvements in November and early December when it came to possession, but that went south pretty fast in recent weeks. As we can see below, their Corsi For% trend at even-strength has remained under 50%, which can be attributed to the significant injuries to Klefbom, McDavid, Eberle and Yakupov, plus the lack of depth on defence.

OilersCorsi

  • Without a doubt, Darnell Nurse has been playing way too high up the depth chart, but I really had no idea his underlying numbers were this bad. I wrote about Nurse’s season so far, and how he compares to other 20 year olds from the past five seasons [Copper & Blue]. I’m still a fan of the player and think he can play at the NHL level today. He’s just not a top pairing player yet. And there’s nothing wrong with that, he’s 20 years old. It’s seriously been reminding me of Ladislav Smid’s first season as an Oiler in 2006. He was also 20 at the time and got a tonne of ice time, despite getting dominated every night by more experienced players. It’s not an ideal situation, so hopefully the Oilers can bring in a at least two legitimate NHL defencemen and allow guys like Nurse to develop at the right pace.
  • If anyone can justify the Oilers keeping Schultz past the trade deadline, I’d love to hear it. Not only has his offence dried up, but he’s clearly not fitting into the coaching staff’s system. In San Jose, a larger proportion of shot attempts came from the blue line compared to the rest of the league. This allowed the forwards to crash the net, make short plays and look for rebounds. As I found a couple weeks ago, Schultz hasn’t been able to get shots on net, having most of his shots blocked or not getting any shots at all. On top of that, Schultz isn’t getting as many high danger scoring chances (chances in close, as defined by War on Ice) as he has in the past, which makes me wonder what his purpose really is. I also found that McLellan isn’t exactly relying on Schultz when the team is down a goal or the game is tied. Graph below is courtesy of Hockey Viz.

Oilers D - deployment-1516-EDM-d

  • Signing Cam Talbot should definitely be on the list of priorities this month. He’s played well for the club, and appears to have shaken off that rocky start which resulted in losing ice time. He has a 90.69 save % (adjusted – which factors in shot location), which isn’t great as it ranks last among goalies with at least 20 games this season. But his save percentage has been trending upwards all season.

TalbotTrend.png

  • I’d be happy if the Oilers could lock him up for 4 seasons at less than $4 million per. I’d prefer to keep the cost low, especially on goalies which tend to be replaceable (outside the elite ones) every summer. Talbot and his agent really do have full control in negotiations, as the Oilers have already invested two draft picks to acquire him and would be foolish to let him walk on July 1st. I’m hoping the fact that Talbot hasn’t started 100 NHL games yet and that there’s a decent backup in Nilsson on the roster, will drive his asking price down a little.

One quick note: if you have any questions about my work or any feedback, feel free to email me directly: sunilagni23 at gmail dot com.

What to do with Darnell Nurse?

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One of the bright spots on defence this season has been the growth and development of the younger players, which includes Oscar Klefbom,Brandon Davidson and Darnell Nurse.  Add in players like Griffin Reinhart,Jordan Oesterle and Dillon Simpson, who continue their development at the AHL level, and the Oilers appear to have a pretty decent future on the blueline.

While Klefbom has established himself as a legitimate top pairing defenceman and Davidson has surpassed expectations playing predominantly bottom pairing minutes, Nurse has struggled this season. He’s playing a significant amount of minutes, including an extended stint on the top pairing with Andrej Sekera, and typically going up against the other team’s top players. While some may argue that this is great for Nurse’s development, he’s posting some alarming underlying numbers that indicate he might be in over his head.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The Oilers and Score-Close Situations

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Todd McLellan’s first season as head coach of the Edmonton Oilers has been pretty dreadful thus far. The club has struggled to remain competitive on a consistent basis, with the club now sitting two points away from last place in the league. McLellan is without a doubt a well qualified coach who has the experience necessary to take the Oilers to the next level. Unfortunately for him, the roster has some glaring holes and is now performing at about the same level as season’s prior.

This season, the Oilers have been especially bad  when the score is close (as in the score is within one in the first two periods, or tied in the third). I focus on this game state as it eliminates score effects, as teams alter their strategy, and player deployment, depending on if they are trailing or leading. So far, the Oilers have been outscored 62-38 when the score is close, which is the worst goal differential in the league.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Zack Kassian is an Oiler. Now what?

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With the Oilers acquiring 24 year old winger Zack Kassian from Montreal, I figured it’d be wise to look into the player’s history to see what his role could be going forward.

First off, I don’t mind this trade. Mainly because Ben Scrivens gets a legitimate chance to extend his NHL career.  The Oilers also get their goaltending depth sorted out with young Eetu Laurikainen now able to develop in Bakersfield rather than Finland. And as for Kassian, he’s an undervalued asset right now because of his off-ice issues who will have to work his way back into game shape at the AHL level. If he can get himself into consideration for a call-up, he’ll be competing with the current stable of Oilers prospects, and will then have to compete with Lauri Korpikoski, Luke Gazdic and Iiro Pakarinenfor ice time. This isn’t a huge risk at all as Kassian’s contract is up at the end of the season. Now with that aside, and separating our personal issues with him, we can start diving into the numbers.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.