CBC Radio Active: Fans back at Rogers Place

I joined Rod Kurtz on CBC Radio Active to talk about the Oilers and their free agency activities. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2021, September 28).

Topics we covered:

  • Oilers first home pre-season game and the first one with fans in the building since March 11, 2020.
  • Management’s off-season approach of adding veterans to the roster, where the strengths are in the roster and the weaknesses.
  • Key prospects on the team and where they could fit this upcoming season.
  • Goaltending and why the team needs to be looking for help.
  • What to watch for this season (even-strength scoring without McDavid on the ice, line combinations, prospects and the penalty kill)

Thanks to the team at CBC for putting it all together!

CBC Radio Active: Oilers busy on day one of NHL free agency

I joined Rod Kurtz on CBC Radio Active to talk about the Oilers and their free agency activities. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2021, July 28).

Topics we covered:

  • The signings of Zach Hyman, what he brings to the team and the risks associated with the contract.
  • Trading away Ethan Bear to make room for veteran defencemen, and what to expect from forward Warren Foegele.
  • Re-signing Tyson Barrie and his actual impact on the team.
  • Signing Cody Ceci, and if he can fill Adam Larsson’s role (short answer: nope).
  • Chances of Evan Bouchard taking another step and playing meaningful minutes, and the barriers in place.
  • Remaining issues and how the front office remains the Oilers biggest deficiency.

Thanks to the team at CBC for putting it all together!

CBC Radio Active: Oilers swept from the playoffs, what’s next

I joined Rod Kurtz on CBC Radio Active to talk about the Oilers playoff results. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2021, May 25).

Topics we covered:

  • The on-ice and off-ice mistakes the Oilers made, and other key factors in their series loss to the Jets.
  • Dave Tippett’s approach to game four and shortening the bench in overtime.
  • The Oilers historical results without McDavid. Touched on something I wrote recently.
  • How the Oilers can build their defence core, integrating younger players with professional-level players.

Thanks as always to everyone at CBC for putting it all together!

CBC Radio Active: Oilers, playoffs, goaltending, depth and more

I joined Rod Kurtz on CBC Radio Active on Tuesday to talk Oilers, playoffs (!) and more. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2021, May 4).

Topics we covered:

  • The Oilers clinching a playoff spot and how they’ve exceeded my regular season expectations.
  • Goaltending and the season Mike Smith has had.
  • Team depth and some of their underlying issues.
  • Potential playoff matchups against Montreal and Winnipeg.
  • Expectations from the team over the last week of the season.

Thanks as always to everyone at CBC for putting it all together!

CBC Radio Active: Oilers, North Division, Nugent-Hopkins and more

I joined Rod Kurtz on CBC Radio Active on Wednesday to talk Oilers and preview their upcoming game against the Calgary Flames. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2021, March 17).

Topics we covered:

  • The Oilers recent play and their push up the standings.
  • Areas for concern and how they stack up in the North division.
  • Team toughness, and if they have a roster built for the playoffs.
  • Return of Zack Kassian, where he fits in on the roster and what to expect.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ contract negotiations and what a deal could potentially look like.

Thanks as always to everyone at CBC for putting it all together!

Thoughts on the North division + CBC Radio Active segment

Joined Rod Kurtz on CBC Radio Active to talk Oilers and previous the season-opener against the Vancouver Canucks. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2021, January 13)

Needless to say, I’m feeling pretty excited that hockey is back. While I didn’t like the idea of having to play the same teams over and over, I do like the playoff feel the regular season will have. The Oilers are playing against the teams they’ll be chasing or trying to create separation from every single night, which makes every game, every point that much more important. We’re probably going to see teams be a little more aggressive with goalie pulls and extra attackers, which should add to the drama. Lots of scoreboard watching.

The North division should be a lot of fun considering the rivalries and the fact that there’s going to be a lot of randomness in the results over a 56-game season. There’s less time to make up ground, making winning and losing streaks, all the more important.  Throw in injuries to key players and how teams adapt their rosters to cover for them, while playing two and three-game series over a short period – it’s going to be wild. All seven teams have their storylines worth following and it’ll be fun to watch some of the high-end talent and prospects from other Canadian clubs – see what the hype is about!

It’s going to be interesting to see how coaching staff’s adapt their powerplays and penalty kills. You’re playing the same teams over and over, so you can expect your opponents to game-plan their special teams a lot more. If your powerplay goes stale, and struggles to generate chances, you’re going to have to adapt and change the look of it – either tactical or changing up the deployment. I suspect the Oilers powerplay will continue to be strong, but will likely see a slight dip from their 20.27% team shooting percentage, likely hovering in the top five overall. Penalty kill is likely to regress, considering their high save percentage last season, but should remain competitive and (hopefully) not cost the team wins in the standings.

For my own curiosity, I wanted to see how well the Canadian teams did on special teams last season, combining their rates of goals for and against on the powerplay and penalty kill.

TeamSpecial teams Goals/60
Edmonton Oilers4.19
Vancouver Canucks2.07
Calgary Flames0.42
Toronto Maple Leafs0.25
Winnipeg Jets-0.24
Montreal Canadiens-1.53
Ottawa Senators-2.06

We all know how dominant Edmonton was on the powerplay, scoring 10.64 goals per hour, Vancouver was right behind them ranking fourth scoring 8.54 goals per hour and Toronto ranking sixth scoring 8.26 goals per hour. What’s interesting is that while they struggled to score, Winnipeg posted some of the highest rates of unblocked shot attempts and shots on goal. Montreal was dreadful – they were one of the worst at generating chances and finished 24th in terms of goals per hour. Looking at penalty killing rates, both the Senators and Jets were dreadful at preventing chances against, finishing in the bottom five in terms of shots against and goals against. Will be interesting to see how much the teams rely on special teams to boost their overall goal-differentials.

Goaltending is going to be huge. With a condensed schedule, teams will need to be mindful of their starters’ workloads, getting them rest between games and avoiding any significant injuries. Some of the teams in the North division look pretty solid in net, with Hellebuyck coming off a strong season, winning the Vezina trophy as the league’s best goalie and Markstom solidifying things in Calgary. Anderson is looking to bounce-back from a down-year last season, but should be back to career-level marks – and motivated by the fact that he’s in a contract year. The Oilers goaltending is not a position of strength as this point. The Oilers have a good, league-average goalie in Koskinen, but he would benefit from a shared workload and I don’t think Smith is up for the job considering his dreadful numbers over the past few years.

To get a sense of the goalies in the division, I looked at each team’s netminders and what their numbers have been like over the past three seasons. The table below is sorted by save percentage, and is for all situations. Included is each goalie’s save percentage (SV%), goals-saved-above-average (GSAA) and high-danger save percentage (HDSV%). The full list included 95 goalies who played at least 1,000 minutes (about 10 games), with the average save percentage being 0.908.

Connor HellebuyckWPG1880.91951.660.815
Jack CampbellTOR620.91711.510.794
Frederik AndersenTOR1780.91526.520.805
Jacob MarkstromCGY1630.91415.560.831
Mikko KoskinenEDM930.9110.490.820
Carey PriceMTL1730.910-4.730.810
Jake AllenMTL1290.909-4.040.812
Matt MurrayOTT1370.909-5.020.832
David RittichCGY1140.908-8.360.831
Mike SmithEDM1360.907-12.580.815
Thatcher DemkoVAN370.906-5.190.811
Braden HoltbyVAN1610.906-23.450.800
Laurent BrossoitWPG540.905-8.210.817
Marcus HogbergOTT280.901-8.290.795

Good news is that Koskinen has been in the right range and we should expect him to be a league-average netminder. Couple wild cards in the division include Demko, a good prospect who has only played 37 games and is expected to carry the load with Holtby, who has not been very good in the last three years – something to watch for in Vancouver. I was also surprised to see that Murray’s numbers aren’t as strong as I’d thought and he doesn’t have a strong back-up either. I think Toronto appears to have the advantage here with an Andersen/Campbell combo.

One last thing I wanted to know was how each of the Canadian teams did last season without their best players on the ice at even-strength. That’s usually about 70% of the team’s total time, making it pretty critical that they control the flow of play as measured by shot metrics and not get outscored too badly.

Montreal and Winnipeg were the two that came out on top in terms of goal-share without their star player, but that doesn’t say much considering that it was below 50%. What’s interesting however is that the Habs posted pretty strong shot-share numbers. The issue was that they couldn’t finish, something that looks to be corrected with the addition of Toffoli and the development of players like Suzuki. Toronto had the shot-share advantage as well and that’s probably going to continue. Edmonton, as we know, struggled mightily thanks to their bottom six. That should be improved with the addition of Turris and Puljujaarvi, but I’m not convinced that they and the rest of the bottom six roster players can be above 48%.


Data: Natural Stat Trick

CBC Radio Active: Oilers and the upcoming, condensed season

I joined Ken Dawson on CBC Radio Active on Tuesday to talk Oilers and the upcoming season that’s scheduled to begin on January 13th. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2020, December 22)

Topics we covered:

  • How the North, All-Canadian division might shake out, and the Oilers chances of making the playoffs.
  • The Oilers off-season activities, and if it’s enough to make the team competitive.
  • Areas of concern, specifically goaltending and the defence group.

Thanks to the team at CBC for putting it all together!

CBC Radio Active: Free agency day for the Edmonton Oilers

I joined Adrienne Pan and Rod Kurtz on CBC Radio Active on Friday to recap free agency day, and the Oilers offseason activities. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2020, October 9).

Topics we covered:

  • What to expect from Kyle Turris as a depth centerman.
  • Goaltending options, and how best to address their situation.
  • The signing of Jesse Puljujärvi, and how to get the best production from him.
  • The Oilers performance at the draft, and what to expect from first round pick Dylan Holloway.

Big thank you to everyone at CBC for putting it all together!

CBC Radio Active: Oilers post mortem

cbc edmonton logoI joined Ken Dawson on CBC Radio Active on Monday to talk about the Oilers series against the Blackhawks and the upcoming off-season. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2020, August 10).

Topics we covered:

  • The key issues for the Oilers loss against the Blackhawks, including the goaltending and their defensive play.
  • Some of the coaching decisions around the line combinations and how it impacted the outcome.
  • What the Oilers need to address in the off-season, and which players may need to be moved to clear up some cap space.
  • The 2020 NHL entry draft, and how the Oilers can address their prospect pool.
  • The NHL playoffs, which team impressed in the first week and who we expect to see in the finals.

Big thank you to everyone at CBC for putting it all together!


CBC Alberta at Noon: Oilers, Flames and the NHL’s return to play

cbc edmonton logoHad the pleasure of joining guest-host Jim Brown on CBC’s Alberta at Noon radio program on Monday afternoon. Along with freelance writer Vikki Hall, we discussed the NHL’s return-to-play plan.

Full segment is here: CBC Alberta at Noon (2020, July 27)

Key topics we covered:

  • Leading up to phase four of the return to play plan, what our expectations were and our thoughts on how things have rolled out thus far.
  • Key storylines in Edmonton and Calgary heading into their qualifier series against Chicago and Winnipeg, respectively.
  • The feeling in Edmonton about being a hub city and the limited benefits to the city and its residents for hosting.
  • The impact of playing in a bubble on the players and how their performance might be impacted by the season’s pause.
  • How the NHL aims to prevent outbreaks and what we expect would happen if a positive case is found.
  • What the fan experience will be like and the NHL’s opportunity to grow the game.
  • Our expectations of the Oilers and Flames, and which team we expect to go further in the playoffs.

Big thanks to CBC and the wonderful team that put it all together!