Thoughts on the Oilers: Managing coaches and coaching managers

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pimg003Soon after MacTavish became GM, there appeared to a philosophical shift when it came to coaching and roster management. Not only was MacTavish revamping the entire roster, trading away Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky and Devan Dubnyk in his first year, but he appeared to be committed to having a strong coaching staff that could support long-term player development.

Bringing in Eakins was an excellent move. Eakins performed well at the AHL level. He was an outside voice. And most importantly, it was who MacTavish wanted. The four year deal given to Eakins signified the importance of stable coaching as well as MacTavish’s level of accountability.

And even after the Oilers’ horrific start last season, MacTavish stressed the importance of coaching continuity and stood behind the hiring of Eakins.

And I would say, absolutely, yeah. I love the coach. To me, he’s done a lot. There’s been a lot of heavy lifting for him. We’re going to have continuity of coaching going forward, which is going to make a big difference going into next year. It’s the same coaching staff, the same messaging. You know how disruptive it is to change coaches. We’re going to have this continuity of coaching. For me, this guy has got the right balance of supporting the players and holding them accountable. There’s an accountability that like. Source: Cult of Hockey (January 2014)

At the end of 2013-2014 season, Taylor Hall talked about the benefits of coming back next season to the same coaching staff.

I think that it’s huge. I know for myself personally I’m really looking forward to going into a year where you don’t have that awkward first handshake at training camp. You know what the coach is going to be like, you understand each other and most of all you understand the system that he’s going to employ. We’re going to have the majority of our team back and to have the same coach is going to be great. And I think that you saw this year with the start that we had, it wasn’t Dallas’ fault by any means, but getting used to a new coach is always a little bit tough. Source: OilersNation (April 2014)

Over the summer, Craig Ramsay and Rocky Thompson were brought in as assistants to replace Steve Smith and Kelly Buchberger, both of whom appeared to be there for transition purposes. The coaching staff now had a long-time coach in Ramsay, and a player-development type of coach in Thompson. A good sign for Eakins and coaching continuity.

But after another horrific start, MacTavish held a press conference where he emphasized that coaching was under scrutiny and that the team had made improvements by bringing in new assistant coaches. Eakins still appeard to be safe, especially with Taylor Hall voicing his support for the coach just a week prior.

Regardless of the talk, Dallas Eakins was let go this week. It’s been blatantly obvious that he didn’t have a complete NHL roster this season and now it’ll  be up to another coach to somehow fix the club. Unless the Oilers improve their player evaluation strategy and allow every player to develop at the right pace (see Red Wings, Detroit), we’ll likely see the coaching carousel continue.

Speaking of Detroit and coaching, there’s a great article on Mike Babcock that has to be read by someone with the Oilers. Quick excerpt:

To be an assistant on Babcock’s staff you have to do one specific thing.

“I want you to have a new idea every day, and I want you to fight for your idea,” Babcock said. “I try to hire people that are going to bring change. I’ve got that right in their job description.”

It’s all part of Babcock’s R&D philosophy, something he’s famous for among his assistants.

Not only is the Oilers on-ice product miles away from the elite teams in the NHL, but so to are the overall management strategies. While the Oilers search for yet another head coach, other teams have long-term coaches tied in to the player development process who are also finding ways of developing assistant coaches.

Here’s hoping MacTavish can develop and commit to a long term plan that involves aligning a strong coaching staff with a roster development strategy. He had the right idea when he hired Eakins. He just needs that same approach to  enhance the scouting and player development. Sometime soon would be a bonus.

Recommended Links

Sing me back home – Lowetide

Bloody Fingerprints – Hockeybuzz

10 Lessons Everyone Can Learn from the Oilers’ Misery – Grantland

Looking back at the 1996-1997 Oilers and the “Golden Era”

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1997-oilers-stars1It’s funny how the human memory works. Between the mid-nineties and the 2006 Cup run, the Oilers were a decent team that would barely squeak into the playoffs and typically get eliminated in the first round. It was frustrating as a fan since the Oilers couldn’t compete with other clubs financially and were typically eliminated early on in the playoffs. The Oilers weren’t  good enough to win the Cup and not bad enough to pick higher in the draft.

Now with the Oilers completely lost in the abyss, and on their way to a ninth straight season out of the playoffs,  this previous era doesn’t seem so bad. Over a span of nine seasons (1996-2006), the Oilers made the playoffs seven times. They had complete rosters, with centers, goalies and yes, even defencemen! Sure they often made the playoffs because another team sputtered down the stretch, but they would make it nonetheless.

The 1996-1997 team stands out for me for two reasons: it was the first season where I actually followed the Oilers; and it was the club that broke the four year playoff drought and upset the Stars in the first round. The team was made up of pretty decent players: Doug Weight, Jason Arnott, Ryan Smyth, Mike Grier, Todd Marchant, Boris Mironov and of course Curtis Joseph. A lot of young players that the team had acquired through trades during the playoff drought. Based on the player’s production and the team’s success, the Oilers management team was clearly doing something right with their player evaluations and making the most of a limited payroll.

It’s no surprise that when the Oilers were getting a fair share of the shots and got decent goaltending, the Oilers had a decent chance of making the playoffs. What these shot differential numbers show is that there was a distinct “Golden Era” when the Oilers were competitive. Worth noting that the two seasons that the Oilers missed the playoffs (2001-02 and 2003-04), the club was outshooting opponents at a decent clip and getting good goaltending. Them the breaks, I guess.

Edmonton Oilers (1990-2014)

The Oilers have clearly shifted their philosophy on how they evaluate players. Looking at defencemen alone, between 1996 and 2006, the Oilers acquired the following players by trade: Roman Hamrlik, Janne Niinimaa, Jason Smith, Igor Ulanov, Eric Brewer, Steve Staios, Jaroslav Spacek and Chris Pronger. These players had been developed elsewhere and the Oilers made some very savvy trades to get them around their primes. The Oilers have not even come close to replicating that kind of success when building a blue line, instead deploying rookies and aging veterans since 2006.

Edmonton Oilers (1990-2014)

 

Worth noting that Curtis Joseph was a big reason why the Oilers made the playoffs even when the team was getting outshot in 1996. Joseph left after only two seasons, but the Oilers replaced him with Tommy Salo (via trade in 1998) and got good production from the Swede until 2003. Since 2006, the Oilers have had pretty reasonable team save percentages but have unfortunately been getting outshot at a ridiculous pace.

For a team that’s been in a nine year drought, the Oilers have very little to show for it. The draft record speaks for itself, but the Oilers have also made very few trades for developed/developing prospects who could help in the next year or two. Since the 2006 run, the Oilers appear to have focused more on spending money than on actual evaluations. They signed Sheldon Souray and Shawn Horcoff to big contracts and pursued players like Marian Hossa, Dany Heatley and recently, David Clarkson.

Any thoughts, let me know. You can also access the table I put together here: Edmonton Oilers – Historical – December 2014.

Sources:

Sporting Charts

NHL.com

NHL Trade Tracker

Hockey Reference

 

 

UAlberta Senate – Plenary Session – December 2014

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E.A. Corbett Hall

E.A. Corbett Hall

Attended the second plenary session as a Senator at the U of A. It was held at Corbett Hall on North Campus, which is home to the Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine.

Corbett Hall is one of the oldest buildings on campus and was originally home to the Faculty of Extension. Thought this quote from E.A. Corbett (1884-1964) which is displayed in the building was worth sharing. More about Corbett can be found at the U of A’s Centenary website.

If I have a working philosophy of adult education, it is based on the conviction that the desire for knowledge is a normal human appetite. And that the capacity to acquire knowledge continues throughout life. I also know from long expertce that through study, discussion and planning together people can change their social and economic environment and in so doing change themselves.

E.A. Corbett (1884-1964)
Emeritus Director of Extension
University of Alberta

Couple things were discussed by the Senators that are worth noting here:

  • The U-School program continues to grow with more and more schools bringing students to campus for a unique experience. The Senate is committed to the program and is looking for volunteers to spend time with the kids. You can learn more about the program at the U-School website and sign-up for this important program.
  • With two deaths occurring on campus this semester, there were some questions about the kind of support available to students. University Wellness Services provides support to students and has created many programs that promote healthy living. They’ve done a tremendous job coming up with new and innovative ways to reach out to students and help those in need. Dean of Students Dr. Robin Everall and her team are committed to supporting students and are working hard to ensure the right programs and services are in place.

Below is a recap of the presentations:

  • Rod Loyola, President of the Non-Academic Staff Association, gave a presentation about this group and discussed some of the issues they’re dealing with. N.A.S.A. represents over 6,000 support staff employees on campus, which includes operating, trust, ESL instructors and casual employees.
  • Jennifer Chesney, Associate Vice President, University Digital Strategy, provided a very insightful presentation on MOOC’s and digital learning. The U of A has launched two MOOC’s so far, Dino 101 and Understanding Video Games, which have both been received well. Jennifer and her team have worked hard to ensure that not only  a quality course is developed, but that the right business model is in place to ensure the course’s sustainability. The courses offered by the U of A are unique in that they provide a higher level of engagement than other courses. Jennifer also shared some very insightful stats regarding the course enrollment and completion rate. Worth noting that the U of A has launched Onlea, a non-profit organization focussed on online learning experiences. More about the company can be found over at TEC Edmonton.
  • Dr. Bob Haennel, Dean of the Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, gave an overview of the programs available and the various projects the school is involved in. The school uses various communication technology to connect their five locations across Alberta and provide a unique experience for students. Also worth noting that the Glen Sather Clinic on campus will be expanding to better serve students and the general public.

Thoughts on the Oilers – Losing Streak

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img003Last season doesn’t seem so bad now, eh?

The Oilers have lost 10 straight. The positive trends of the underlying stats had me feeling optimistic about the club. I figured the team would turn it around eventually, but there haven’t been any signs. Had last night’s loss been a one goal game, or if the power play scored at least once, we could at least have something to build off of. Instead, it was a blowout on home ice against a beatable team. And it featured two short handed goals againts (on the same powerplay!) by an ex-player.

Tobias Rieder

When the Oilers dealt Rieder for Kessy, I didn’t really care. It was a prospect swap that sent away skill for size. Thankfully there were some very intelligent people out there who dug deeper and found that this was a terrible deal for the club [Copper and Blue] [Cult of Hockey]. Following last night’s game, it was revealed by Sarah McLellan of Arizona Central that it was Rieder who initiated the trade as he felt that the Oilers had enough forwards similar to himself.

Why would a prospect feel he has no chance to make the club? This team does not have any superstar prospects. What this team does have is the ability to hand out roster spots based on pedigree rather than an actual competition. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rieder felt that as a 4th round pick, he had less of a chance to make it to the big club.

mc79hockey

Something I came across recently were the negative tweets directed at Tyler on Twitter. Many are targeting him as a point of ridicule as he was hired to provide the coaching staff with analytical expertise. With the season down the drain, and the advanced stats under a microscrope, many appear to be directing sarcastic tweets at him rather than the players who, you know, actually play the game.

I’m sure Tyler was prepared for the snarky comments when he took the job. It’s just unfortunate that he’s unable to respond back to people and defend the work that he’s done.

Draft, Develop, and (hopefully) Deploy

One thing that always bothers me is how fast the Oilers push their prospects to the NHL. I’m glad it’s a point of discussion since the club is at it again rushing Leon Draisaitl. There is no harm in letting a player stay in junior or refine their game in the AHL. To this day, I firmly believe the Oilers should’ve given RNH, Yak and Schultz an additional season to develop before making the jump.

And just based on MacTavish’s belief that Schultz could be a Norris trophy winner some day, I looked at the number of junior and minor league games played by Schultz compared with past winners.

Number of games played
Player Juniors College AHL SEL/FIN
Justin Schultz 0 121 34 0
Duncan Keith 37 56 154 0
PK Subban 234 0 77 0
Erik Karlsson 49 0 12 82

Players need time to develop, especially defencemen. Both Keith and Subban were fortunate that their clubs had long-term plans, and got to ease their way into the NHL. Only because of the lockout was Schultz able to play in the AHL, where he finished with 48 points and won the Eddie Shore award for best defenceman. The guy has tremendous upside, no question about it.  He just needed some time in the AHL to workout some of the basics. The Oilers have yet to fully embrace a true model of drafting and developing and until they do, the club will continue to struggle.

Mental Health

One final thought: The current losing streak, combined with the playoff drought has put a real damper on the fan community, especially online. A quick scan of the #oilers hashtag last night during the game found a lot of sarcastic tweets, but many that were about just feeling depressed or down watching the club. It’s understandable. The losing is awful for a fan, and it can be difficult to escape the negativity of others. There’s a lot of negative content about the Oilers right now, and even seeing a headline with “Oilers” in it is typically a downer. In all seriousness, if the team’s performance has you really down, reach out to your personal network and try to unplug from the game. There are also  many resources in the community that are easily accessible and can get you the help you need.

Recommended Links

From Fan to Fat? Vicarious Losing Increases Unhealthy Eating, but Self-Affirmation Is an Effective Remedy – Psychological Science

Many things need to change – Oilersnation

A Golden God – Black Dog Hates Skunks

The Process – Oilers Rig

The Oilers are better than their record and will likely rally the rest of the way – Cult of Hockey

Rieder and Weep – Cult of Hockey

The Losing End – Lowetide

Thoughts on the Oilers: About Saturday Night

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img003The scene at the end of the Oilers game against the Hawks was one of despair, hopelessness and misery. The camera panned to Eakins as the final buzzer went. He looked at the ice, said something to his assistant and then made his way to the tunnel with the rest of the team. 7-1 loss. At home. On Hockey Night in Canada. At this point, I thought back to last March when the Flames absolutely destroyed the Oilers 8-1 on national television.

CBC then cut to the final minute of the Flames-Devils game, where the Flames were down by one. The crowd in Calgary was buzzing as the home team pulled their goalie, rushed up-ice and, with seconds remaining, tied the game. The building went nuts. And sure enough, the Flames won the game in a shootout.

I had a few thoughts leading up to the game and throughout the beatdown. Twitter became a pretty dark place after that shutout loss to the Devils on Friday night, so I stayed away for the most part.

  • Leading up to Saturday night, the Oilers didn’t stand a chance against the Hawks. But sometimes the Oilers can surprise you. Like when Sam Gagner got 8-points. That was a fun time.
  • Absolutely, the worst part about being an Oilers fan is the rampant and unnecessary speculation that pops up when things are going bad. Trade rumors, coaching changes and “team culture” suddenly become the hot topics.
  • At the start of the year, I predicted that Perron would be the most likely to be dealt. Not because he’s a bad player. But because he’s a veteran forward that can produce consistently. Basically the type of guy that a team would want to acquire and be willing to send a player that the Oilers could use (like a centre!). I thought his comments after the Devils game were fantastic. I just hope he doesn’t get traded for this reason.
  • Eberle has got to be deployed differently. He’s a talented forward, but his defensive capabilities have been exposed for a couple of years now. The club needs to move him away from the other team’s top lines, but he doesn’t seem to have chemistry with anyone else but Hall and RNH. I’m not saying to trade him. Just deploy him better.
  • When Devan Dubnyk struggled with the Oilers last year, MacTavish mentioned that he was given some data that showed that many goalies go through rough patches but tend to get back to their playing level. (This was Tyler Dellow’s work, before he joined the club, which isn’t available anymore unfortunately). In each year before his nightmare season, Dubnyk had a 0.916 SV%, 0.914 SV% and 0.920 SV%. At the quarter way mark of this season, Dubnyk is sitting at a 6-0-1 record, with a 0.926 SV%. I wasn’t a huge fan of the goaltending carousel that landed Scrivens and Fasth. And now it looks like the Oilers’ goalie coach is taking the fall. Bizarre.
  • I really thought the Eakins hiring would’ve gone better. I figured a young coach, with experience in the AHL, would bring some new ideas and tactics to the Oilers. Following his rookie season, he added Craig Ramsay and Rocky Thompson to his coaching staff. He reached out to other professional coaches for help. He brought on Tyler Dellow to provide analytic support. But he has yet to have a complete roster. The last thing this club needs is a new coach. Are they even sure another coach would even want to come here?
  • All MacTavish had to do was fill out the roster, give his coaches some free reign and not put Norris expectations on Justin Schultz. Everything would’ve been just fine.
  • I don’t see MacT making a coaching change. He’s preached the importance of consistency. He’s been in the coaches situation before and knows the benefits of sticking with a coach. It would not surprise me at all if MacT sticks with Eakins until the bitter end.
  • Side note: I had no idea people loved Ralph Kreuger so much. He seemed like a likable guy, but I don’t remember him getting a lot of support during his stint here.
  • It’s pretty obvious since the off-season that the team needs help at centre, on defense and goaltending. This is clearly on the management group, who have yet to give their coaches a complete line up. There are no excuse for having this many glaring holes in the roster.

Recommended Links

The Edmonton Oilers are a National Hockey League team – Lowetide

Norris – Black Dog Hates Skunks

Thoughts on the Oilers: Chasing Optimism

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Dead last in the conference. Sitting at 6-10-2. Brutal.

img003Quick rundown of the season:

  • At home: 1L, 4W, 4L
  • On the road: 5L, 2W, 1L
  • Overall: 5L, 4W, 4L, 2W, 3L.

It’s easy to pick this team apart. For one, they’ve struggled at different areas like goaltending, defence and centre. And second, we have experience dissecting a bad team as it’s been the same story since 2006. We know what a bad team looks like, right?

But unlike the past few years, there has been progress. The 12 (!!) forwards look like a legit NHL group. RNH is growing into a star. And the underlying stats are pointing to an improved puck possession team. Unfortunately, the wins aren’t coming, so the frustration is starting to build among the masses. And preaching patience isn’t going to work on a fanbase that has been waiting for a competitive NHL team since 2006.

Sapp made a fantastic point that pretty much summed up my general outlook on the Oilers:

The last three losses have been extremely frustrating. Each game featured stretches of terrible play by the Oilers. The first period in Nashville where they got outplayed and outshot, resulting in a 3-0 defecit was a perfect example. The Oilers did manage to score a couple to make it close, but they couldn’t recover from the hole they dug themselves into. When a team comes out flat like that, I tend to fault the coaches whose sole purpose is to implement a strategy and get the right guys deployed. My concern this past week has been that adjustments appear to be made at the intermission rather than during the period. Regardless of the reason, the club is losing a lot more 1-goal games and just aren’t finishing their chances. You’d think this will turn around soon, but then the club keeps giving the cherry minutes to Shultz, scratching Marincin from the lineup, and musing about adding Gazdic to the roster.

Tough stretch of games coming up against western conference teams who the Oilers, for whatever reason, can’t beat. Absolutely bizarre.

Quick point on analytics: It’s a highly personal thing. There are common methods to uncover patterns in data, but the value we put into the data depends on our own biases and interpretation of the game. For instance, Corsi/Fenwick are great. But I tend to value shots on goal and shot differential higher. Just do.  And also keep in mind that analytics has, in my opinon, enhanced the overall discussion of the game. It won’t explain everything, and it might not always make sense, but it’s a much more engaging starting point than “Hemsky is the first guy off the ice at practice…”.

Recommended Links

Oilers are taking positive steps – TSN

Season fancystats updateafter 15 games – Boys on the Bus

If the Oilers’ advanced stats are so good, why don’t they win hockey games? – Oilersnation

One of these nights – Lowetide

The Yandle Treatment – Woodblog

David Turpin named University of Alberta’s next president

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img003Some big news out of the University of Alberta as David Turpin has been named the next president. David will be replacing Indira Samarasekera, who held the post since 2005.

Links:

Worth noting are some of the remarks Indira made at our Alumni Council meeting back in March in regards to the state of the University and the future president:

  • Indira stressed that it doesn’t matter how great your natural resources, like oil, are. The most important thing is talent and brainpower.
  • She spoke about academic transformation, which included improving the graduate student experience and developing a stronger recruitment strategy.
  • Indira suggested that the President should be involved in the tenure and promotion process.
  • She also suggested that Faculty Dean’s should have strategic visions aligned with the University to ensure accountability.
  • The U of A needs to develop a sustainable funding model and rely less on Government, who rely to heavily on oil) according to Indira.
  • Indira continues to stress the importance of aspiring to be a top global university.
  • The next President must be a “connoisseur of excellence” and have the ability to select talent, drive change and manage performance.

All the best to David. Look forward to working with him.

Alumni Council Meeting – New members, Visit from Carl Amrhein and a Recap of Alumni Weekend

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High Level Bridge in Edmonton

High Level Bridge in Edmonton

Had our first council meeting for the 2014-2015 school year last week. Lots to look forward to as the Alumni Association has plenty of events coming up, including its centenary.

Dr. Carl G. Amrhein, Provost and VP (Academic) came by and gave his take on the state of the University and the importance of education in Alberta. Karl talked about the growing global presence of the U of A as well as initiatives to reach different parts of the province.

Related: How Our Universities Can Compete in the World: A conversation with the Conference Board’s new executive-in-residence Carl Amrhein – University Affairs (2013, May 8)

We also received a recap of the Alumni Weekend held in September. Just an amazing amount of work by the coordinators and volunteers.

And of course, a big welcome to the newest members of the Council! Look forward to working with you all. Full bios for all members should be updated soon.

Hockey Scouting in the Modern Age: An Interview with Victor Carneiro of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds

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sunilagni's avatarHockey in Society / Hockey dans la société

hockeyscoutingWith the development of communication technology such as the web, social media and mobile technology, information pertaining to hockey has increased both in size and importance. The NHL, their broadcasters and media outlets are producing an astounding amount of content delivered on an array of platforms. Fans continue to demand information, and have played a key role in the development of new hockey related content. And of course, hockey teams are also acquiring as much information as they can for managerial decisions and to improve on-ice performance.

Not only has the amount of and demand for information increased, but many more channels between all stakeholders to share and develop information have opened as well. Teams however, are understandably restricted as to how much they can publicly disclose, mindful of the competitive nature of their business. Scouting in particular, which is relied upon to draft and acquire players has evolved in…

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Thoughts on the Oilers: Defencemen, Rookies and Training Camp

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10279542Welp. This hasn’t gone as planned.

Five straight losses to start the season. Three of which were against division opponents.

From what I’ve seen, this is a better team than last year. The goals against are coming from quick plays and bad turnovers. I haven’t seen a whole lot of running around in the defensive zone, which was prominent last year. And it was always after that running around the Oilers would get scored on. This year, there’s just been some horrible turnovers and sub-par goaltending that’s been to blame. But both of these things are fixable.

I’m still confident in the twelve forwards. Again, it’s not a deep lineup, especially at centre, but I think all four lines (for once!) are pretty decent. My only issue is the utilization of Draisatl on the second line. The club has got to do something about that to not only find a complementary player for Yakupov, but also give Draisatl a chance to develop properly.

I had confidence in the defensemen at the start, only because I assumed that Petry would be playing important minutes and the rest of the group would be legitimate NHL players. Instead, Petry has had his minutes reduced, including a healthy scratch, and the club has relied on guys like Schultz, Nurse (back to junior now) and Hunt (back to the AHL).

What this tells me is that the Oilers training camp did not go too well. There were injuries, but the coaches didn’t do enough of an assessment to confidently assign the right minutes and situations to the right players. We’re five games in to the regular season, and the club is only now starting to iron out their defensive roster.

I guess this is what happens when you’re coming out of a losing season and start to re-jig your defensive tactics. Coaches have to test out which players fit where and basically reacquaint themselves with the roster. Perfect example is benching Petry for guy like Hunt. The latter has a decent shot and can join the powerplay, but his overall game isn’t near the level of the former. Marincin, who stood out near the end of last season is only now getting in to the NHL roster.

I’d also be curious to know how much say the forwards have on who plays defense in key situations. I don’t understand how or why Schultz is playing more than 24 minutes when he’s having such a hard time playing without the puck. The guy is fantastic getting out of the zone, but still has trouble keeping up with rushes from the opposition. He’s still developing, and really should be deployed more efficiently.

Regardless of the poor start, there’s ample time to turn this around and get some wins. There has yet to be a game where the forwards, defensemen and goaltending all played a decent game as a unit. Now that the defense is looking like somewhat of an NHL roster with the promotion of Marincin, the goaltending should improve.

Recommended Links

Gregor: Draisaitl’s development likely better in junior – Edmonton Journal

Mirtle: Blame bad luck, goaltending for Oilers early mess – Globe and Mail

Same time next year – Lowetide