Talking Oilers, Laurent Brossoit, OKC Barons and Schultz on the Lowdown with Lowetide

/ sunilagni / 5 Comments

laurent-brossoit-03252014Had a chance to discuss the Oilers with Lowetide last Friday. We covered a wide range of topics including the goaltending moving forward, the Barons and the draft, among others. Check out this post from Lowetide that frames some of the discussion first.

The full segment is here, but unfortunately it doesn’t load properly right now. I’ll make sure I update this post once the glitch is corrected by TSN.

Couple notes that I thought would be worth sharing:

  • Laurent Brossoit was outstanding against the Sharks making 49 saves in his NHL debut. It was definitely one of the rare highlights of the year, but I think it’d be wise to temper our expectations until he really proves himself at the AHL level. Jonathan WIllis has a nice piece on him, describing Brossoit’s history and development.

  • I mentioned that I thought Anton Lander was the most impressive call-up from the Barons this season. He’s taken on the tougher minutes this year and has produced reasonably well. He’s got some job security now, signing a 2-year deal, so I’m hoping he can take full control of that second/third line center.
  • Todd Nelson had done a lot to demonstrate his ability to coach at the NHL level. If the Oilers don’t retain him as head coach, I can see another NHL club reaching out to him either as a head coach or an associate. And whatever the Oilers decide to do, they have got to start the season with an NHL roster. We’ve seen a lot of coaches, experienced and knowledgeable men, come and go, each having a poor roster to work with. The Oilers have to do a better job this summer assembling a roster.
  • My knowledge of the draft this year is limited to the top 10 or so prospects. I don’t watch junior hockey, so a lot of what I know is based on what the experts say and what the stats are telling me. And based on what I think the Oilers should do, I’m thinking the club should pursue a center with the third pick and consider moving either him or Leon to acquire a top defenceman. I’d prefer drafting another defenceman like Noah Hanifin, letting him develop for a few years and then reaping the benefits. But this is MacTavish’s third year as GM, so he may choose to pursue assets that can be moved right away to get NHL talent now. Defencemen, in my opinion, take a lot longer to develop, so a prospect at center might be more attractive to a rival GM. Just my thoughts.
  • The thought of the Oilers signing an expensive, veteran netminder like Niemi this summer makes me absolutely cringe. One, it brings up memories of Khabibulin getting dehydrated in his first game with the Oilers. And two, it’ll push the club against the cap when those dollars should really be spent on defence. I mentioned purusing goalies like Cam Talbot or Martin Jones, with the former being preferred, as possibilities. Both are young with some upside, but this may scare away MacTavish who already gambled on Fasth and Scrivens based on similar logic, and failed. The issue with goalies is that they typically don’t age gracefully, and you probably want to avoid guys like Niemi who have been in decline.
  • I also shared my thoughts on Justin Schultz, who I really believe can still be an NHL defenceman. Unfortunately, the club has pushed him into the first pairing, taking on tougher opposition, and his deficiencies are on display nightly. The Oilers have got to push both Schultz and Klefbom down the depth chart by bringing in at least two defencemen who are in their primes. There are far too high expectations on Schultz, all due to what the team has said about him and how they’ve used him. If you’re interested, I wrote about the Oilers mishandling of Schultz here and here.

A big thank you to Allan for having me on his show. His blog is always a must-read and I’m looking forward to his Realistic Expectations series this month.

Oilers’ Coaching History

/ sunilagni / 4 Comments
renney

Source: Edmonton Journal

I thought it’d be interesting to compare the past five seasons to assess how the team has done under different head coaches. I’ve learned more about War On Ice’s “score-adjusted” filter recently and think this’ll be how I analyze possession stats from now on. If you’re looking to understand how score adjusted is calculated, definitely check out Micah’s article Adjusted Possession Measures.

Basically, it factors in the score throughout the game. Teams play differently when they’re leading or trailing, and their possession stats (Corsi/Fenwick) reflect that. Trail, and your game plan changes to attack more. Lead, and you might shut down a bit.

Just to give a sense of how often the Oilers were tied, trailing or leading over the past five seasons, see below. Source: Puck on Net. One quick note: I consider Nelson’s coaching reign to have started on December 30th, 2014. That was his first game without MacTavish with him behind the bench.

Down 2 Down 1 Tied Up 1 Up 2
  Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi
Renney
(2010-11)		 22.9% 55.7% 22.0% 47.7% 32.2% 44.2% 13.2% 38.6% 9.6% 42.5%
Renney
(2011-12)		 15.3% 52.6% 18.7% 52.5% 38.6% 47.4% 15.5% 41.1% 12.0% 39.0%
Krueger
(2012-13)		 17.3% 50.7% 19.3% 47.8% 33.6% 42.3% 13.3% 41.0% 16.4% 42.6%
Eakins
(2013-14)		 22.1% 50.6% 20.8% 46.4% 33.3% 44.0% 14.6% 40.2% 9.2% 38.0%
Eakins
(2014-15)		 23.6% 54.7% 22.1% 53.6% 39.3% 51.2% 12.4% 39.9% 2.6% 36.3%
Nelson
(2014-15)		 17.3% 51.5% 17.7% 53.5% 35.3% 45.5% 22.1% 43.0% 7.6% 43.9%

Here we see that Eakins’ club was trailing more this year, so they might have been playing more aggressively, thus inflating their overall possession metrics. He still did a good job suppressing shots, which we’ll get to in a minute, but we should apply the score-adjusted filter to get a true sense of his team’s performance.

Below is a high-level breakdown for each coach at even strength. Consider this a starting point, since there are some obvious factors such as the actual roster and individual player performance.

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
  Renney Renney Krueger Eakins Eakins Nelson
Number of games 82 82 48 82 31 46
Pts% 0.378 0.451 0.469 0.409 0.306 0.456
PDO 99.1 100.2 100.7 99.4 97.1 98
On ice shooting % 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.0 6.7 7.4
On ice save % 91.3 92.0 92.4 91.4 90.4 90.6
Offensive Zone Starts 49.8 50.4 47.4 44.3 50.8 49.6
Corsi For % 45.1 47.0 44.2 43.2 49.1 46.4
Goals For % 42.1 47.6 47.1 41.8 39.3 41.1
Goals +/- -46 -14 -10 -50 -25 -33
Goals For/60 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.0
Goals Against/60 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.8
Shots For % 44.8 47.0 44.9 43.6 48.0 47.1
Shots +/- -364 -213 -218 -466 -56 -128
Scoring Chances For % 44.2 46.4 44.2 44.9 49.0 43.7
Scoring Chances +/- -396 -246 -252 -360 -26 -280
Scoring Chances For/60 23.8 24.7 25.8 24.5 24.4 24.9
Scoring Chances Against/60 30 28.6 32.5 30.1 25.4 32.2

Source: War on Ice

Couple thoughts:

  • Tom Renney made some very nice improvements in his second year as head coach. At the time, I thought he was going to be back for a third year, but Tambo had other plans. I thought he would’ve made a good long-term coach considering what he was able to accomplish with such a brutal roster.
  • I know there’s this perception that Ralph Krueger was a great head coach and should not have been fired to make way for Eakins. I think people tend to forget about some of the losing streaks that year, including the brutal April they had. I really think the hiring of Eakins, who wasn’t liked very much by the local media, increased Krueger’s popularity.
  • Eakins somehow managed some decent possession stats this season and had a way of suppressing shots and scoring chances. I’d be interested in how he did it and where the weaknesses were from his point of view.
  • Nelson did an okay job given the roster he had and the lack of experience on the blueline. He’s done an excellent job with guys like Lander and the other OKC grads. Based on his past experience at the minor league level, he should definitely be considered for a head coaching spot somewhere in the NHL, if not in Edmonton.
  • That goaltending this year. Just. Brutal. Worst save percentage at even strength in the NHL.

Something  to consider when reviewing these stats is how poorly the rosters were built each year. This year, for instance, it was obvious that the Oilers were going to struggle as they didn’t have enough centermen to start the season and the lack of experience on defence. Each coach hired came to the team with decent resumes and experience. Eakins and Nelson both coached for a few years in the AHL and had assistant coaching experience at the NHL level. Krueger was the head coach of Swiss Hockey and played a key role in the national teams growth. And Renney had just finished four seasons as head coach of the Rangers, making the playoffs each year. Unfortunately for all of these coaches, the management failed to provide them with a complete and balanced roster.

Here’s hoping the next coach of the Oilers will be put in a situation to succeed by management. That means adding experience to the blue line, adding a centermen or two, and finding good goaltending this summer.

Eberle, RNH and “Star” Status

/ sunilagni / 6 Comments
Source: National Post

Source: National Post

From my point of view, both Eberle and RNH have had excellent seasons. We knew what Eberle was capable of, having scored 76 points in 2011/2012 and 65 points last season. RNH had a few more question marks, as he still needed to develop physically to really reach that next level we expect of a number one pick. Both guys produced well and look to be part of the Oilers future going forward.

Craig MacTavish made a few comments about these two before the start of the season (original interview is no longer available, so thanks to Robin Brownlee for transcribing part of it):

“We all know Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle are really good players but what we don’t know is whether they are star players,” MacTavish told McKenzie as part of a wide-ranging interview you can read here.

“They have a lot of room for growth…but they’ve had enough experience and enough time. I think, in fairness to them, they want this more so than anybody else. We need to see whether they’re going to be good players or whether they’re going to be star players.” 

Source: Oilers Nation

To me, star players are those that not only finish in the top 10 in scoring within their position, but are also productive at even-strength where the majority of the game is played. A player’s time on ice has to be considered to really gauge their talent relative to their peers, as well as their zone starts. Taylor Hall for instance, is a star player because he’s been in the top 10 when measuring his total points and point production per 60 minutes of play at even strength.

I decided to breakdown the numbers for both Eberle and RNH to see if they’ve reached star status, or if they’re still working towards it. Here’s how Eberle has done over his five years with the Oilers (even-strength):

Jordan Eberle 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Games 69 78 48 80 81
Points 29 54 27 38 41
Points/60 1.8 3.1 2.3 2.0 2.0
Corsi For %(All, score adj) 47.4 47.7 50.0 44.8 50.0
Corsi For % Rel 4.1 1.7 8.7 2.4 4.0
Scoring Chances For % 48.7 49.7 51.6 46.2 49.0
Shots For % 47.3 47.6 51.7 45.3 49.3
Offensive Zone Starts % 48.5 59.7 49.3 55.2 62.7

Source: War on Ice

What’s encouraging about Eberle is his consistency when it comes to point production (P/60) over the past few years. And good things tend to happen when he’s on the ice…something we’ve come to expect of him. He’s also received a higher percentage of offensive zone starts this year, and he often plays with star players. He was 14th in even strength scoring this season among right wingers (minimum of 250 minutes played), up from 15th place last season. But he’s 36th overall in terms of points per 60 among right wingers, up from 41st the year before.

And here’s how RNH has done over his four years with the Oilers (even-strength):

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Games 62 40 80 76
Points 28 11 31 37
Points/60 2.0 1.1 1.6 1.9
Corsi For %(All, score adj) 48.2 49.2 43.8 49.3
Corsi For % Rel 1.9 7.0 1.1 2.8
Scoring Chances For % 50.5 51.0 46.2 48.5
Shots For % 49.2 50.5 44.9 49.2
Offensive Zone Starts 61.5 50.9 58.1 61.8

RNH’s even-strength stats have definitely improved, but not as dramatically as I thought they would’ve just based on what I saw on the ice. He has received a lot more offensive zone starts, thanks to guys like Boyd Gordon and Anton Lander doing some heavy lifting. His overall point total including powerplay points are identical from last season (56 total points), but his even strength production has definitely improved. At even strength, he ranks 17th overall in points among centers, up from 42nd last season. In terms of point production, he ranked 38th among centers, up from 80th the year prior.

For comparison’s sake, here are Taylor Hall’s numbers.

Taylor Hall 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Games 65 61 45 75 52
Points 25 31 33 53 24
Points/60 1.6 2.1 3.0 2.8 1.8
Corsi For % 47.5 51.2 49.8 43.2 49.0
Corsi For % Rel 4.8 5.6 8.2 0.2 3.5
Scoring Chances For % 47.2 50.3 49.3 45.2 47.9
Shots For % 46.0 50.4 51.4 44.8 46.2
Offensive Zone Starts % 51.2 56.7 54.0 56.6 55.7

He finished 2nd overall among left wingers at even strength last season, and 3rd overall in points per 60. In 2012-2013, he was 3rd overall in points and points per 60 at even strength. He’s obviously had a rough season this year, but I think we can expect him to bounce back to star-level status soon. Let’s hold off on those trade rumors, shall we?

Thoughts

I’d be curious to hear what MacTavish thinks of RNH’s and Eberle’s 2014/2015 season. I don’t think they’ve reached that “star-level” status that he alluded to back in September, but I think, with RNH especially, that potential is still there. We also can’t overlook the consistency of Eberle’s play, who really has established himself as a top line NHL winger.

I see both players as integral parts of the Oilers future and hope that they, along with Hall and Yakupov, could be that core to build around. Here’s hoping the club can solidify a coaching staff for next season, get some help on the blueline, and really put these young forwards in a position to succeed.

Recommended Links

RE 14-15 Jordan Eberle: Blue Sky – Lowetide

Thoughts on the Oilers: Goaltending, Coaching, Personnel, Mo’ Money

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment
Source: Edmonton Oilers

Source: Edmonton Oilers

This season can’t end soon enough. The Oilers are 24-43-13 with two games remaining, and are destined to finish 28th.

Goaltending

The Oilers will be looking for a new goaltender this summer with Fasth heading to free agency and Scrivens settling into a backup role. I thought Fasth would be the guy to take over, but alas, the Oilers will likely dump a pile of money at someone like Antti Niemi. His numbers are nothing great, but because of his experience and Stanley Cup ring, the Oilers, or another desperate club, will make a pitch for his services.

Good/average goaltending is really all a team can ask for from their netminder. It’s really more important to have an experienced defence core, which to me, makes or breaks a goalies career. If the Oilers want average goaltending, they really should save the money and avoid someone like Niemi. Instead the club should pursue someone younger with upside like Cam Talbot (NYR) or Martin Jones (LA). Unfortunately, MacTavish tried this last season with Scrivens and Fasth, and failed, so it’s likely he’ll chase an experienced goalie. I’m hoping the Oilers’ analytics team can uncover a goalie whose career has been good, but value has dropped because of a poor year. Darcy Kuemper (MIN) comes to mind.

Coaching

This is going to be a tough decision for MacTavish. Do you go with Nelson who has done an okay job as interim head coach or do you chase one of the top coaches who might be available after their respective playoff runs? MacTavish struck out once going with a younger coach, so my guess is he’ll make sure his next hire is a veteran guy. Not to say that Nelson or Eakins aren’t good candiates. Both have done excellent work at the AHL level providing guidance to developing players, and are worthy of NHL positions. I just imagine MacTavish going down a safer route, so he faces less criticism if/when things go south.

Size

It seems every time the Oilers lose, I come across comments online and the radio about how the Oilers need to be bigger.

Chasing a single trait like size, or even speed or skill, is extremely short sighted and is often influenced by our own personal biases and experiences. When assessing anything, whether it be a player or a car or an idea, it’s critical to remain open minded. The Oilers, for whatever reason, have chased size (i.e., coke machines) drafting or acquiring players who had limited potential (JF Jacques and Brad Isbister immediately come to mind). It’s easy to find size..just sort the list by weight and height. But it’s harder to get a big player with strong complementary traits like skating, puck control and endurance. It’ll be interesting to see how the scouting staff does this summer.

Katz

A lot has been made of how terrible the Oilers have been since Katz officially took over the club in 2008. David Staples from the Cult of Hockey put some numbers to it to highlight just how bad they’ve been relative to the rest of the league.

At the end of the day, there really is nothing we can do with who owns the team. The NHL, and other professional leagues are just a time-filler for owners. They all have other legitimate businesses running, and pro-teams are really just for fun for them. It always makes me laugh when someone refers to hockey as a “business”. It’s a cartel. Similar to the drug trade. They have their own rules, their own measure of currency, and their own economy and operational structure. So to hope that another owner comes along and takes the game more seriously is just wishful thinking. You can hope Katz can hire the right managers and staff, but it’s clear that he goes with people he knows personally and has an attachment to. Can’t do much about that, so we kinda have to roll with it.

Side note: I’ve come across a lot of interesting research on social behavior and norms, cognitive psychology stuff. One thing that’s apparent is how money impacts our decision making, the norms that guide our behavior and our relationships with others. It’s possible that Katz’ deep pockets, and early promises to spend to the cap,  may have altered how the Oilers assess and acquire players. There was a time when the Oilers actually pieced together a nice roster (see 2005/2006, Oilers). But something changed along the way where they now rely heavily on free agency and less on true scouting and asessement. Just a thought.

Recommended Links

Don’t Worry, It’s Almost Over – The Copper and Blue

The Character of the Oilers – Oilers Rig

Patience and Prudence in Development – Lowetide

Edmonton Oilers Player Grades, Game 71-80 – The Cult of Hockey

Corsi Didn’t Help Tyler Dellow or Kyle Dubas – Hockey in more than 140 Characters

Money Changes Everything – Dan Ariely

In Hall We Trust

/ sunilagni / 4 Comments
Source: EdmontonOilers.com

Source: EdmontonOilers.com

I can’t believe I have to write this.

Taylor Hall is one of the top players in the game today. Despite playing for one of the worst franchises in recent history, Hall has been a very productive player. He’s about to complete his fifth year in the NHL, playing for his fourth coach, and there appears to be some question about his value.

To judge a player, we can supplement what we see on the ice with both traditional stats as well as some of the more modern metrics (i.e., posession, scoring chances, etc).

From what I’ve seen, Hall is an absolute beast when it comes to attacking the opposing net. He’s very good along the boards, excellent at gaining the zone, not afraid to take a hit, and he can finish. Now for the numbers.

Overall

GP G A PTS PPG PPA SHG SHA GWG PIM SHOTS
2010-11
65
22
20
42
8
3
0
0
4
27
186
2011-12
61
27
26
53
13
8
0
0
7
36
207
2012-13
45
16
34
50
4
10
0
0
4
33
154
2013-14
75
27
53
80
7
10
0
1
1
44
250
2014-15
50
13
23
36
3
3
0
0
0
40
146
Total
296
105
156
261
35
–
0
–
16
180
943

Not bad right? 261 points is second only to Tyler Seguin (279 points) of the 2010 draft class, but keep in mind, Seguin has played 56 more games (Source: HockeyDB). In 2012/2013, he was ninth overall in scoring. In 2013/2014, he was sixth in total points, behind Crosby, Getzlaf, Giroux, Seguin and Perry.

Even Strength

The true value of a player is how well they do at even strength. Here’s a look at how he’s done, as well as the number of points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

Season
Games
Goals
Assists
Points
G/60
A/60
P/60 
TOI/Gm
2010-11
 65 10 15 25 0.6 0.9 1.6 14.8
2011-12
 61 13 18 31 0.9 1.2 2.1 14.4
2012-13
 45 12 21 33 1.1 1.9 3.0 14.5
2013-14
 75 16 37 53 0.8 1.9 2.8 15.2
2014-15
 50 6 18 24 0.4 1.4 1.8 15.9
Total
 296 57 109 166

In 2012-12, Hall was sixth in the league in points-per-60  (at even strength) behind guys like Crosby, Toews and Staal. In 2013-14, he was sixth again, behind guys like Getzlaf, Perry, Seguin and Benn. In terms of productivity at even strength, Hall is one of the best in the NHL.

You can also average his assists per 60 & points per 60 over 4 years (2011-15) to see that he’s the 4th best playmaker & 8th overall points producer in the NHL (thanks to Walter for finding that).

Advanced Stats

Since entering the league, Hall has been given a lot of offensive zone starts and has delivered. He regularly sees the top competition, but has managed to produce at a very decent clip. What we can also glean from his advanced stats is how vital Hall is to the Oilers success. For instance, the Oilers are more likely to have possession of the puck when Hall is on the ice. The team typically gets their decent share of shots and scoring chances when Hall is on the ice, and the team doesn’t do nearly as well when he’s on the bench. It should also be noted that Hall’s shooting percentage is usually pretty consistent, and its drop may be the reason why he has struggled this season. I think it’s safe to assume that shooting percentage will get back to normal very soon. I’ve included a full table of his stats in the Appendix.

Here’s a visual of Hall’s deployment and performance last season. You can see here, and in his other four seasons (Appendix below), that he gets a decent amount of offensive zone starts,faces tougher competition, and still manages to produce. (Source: Hockey Abstract’s Player Usage Charts)

Oilers 2013-2014

Trade Hall?

If the right player becomes available, every single player on this roster should be made available. The Oilers are clearly in need of a few defensemen, so it shouldn’t surprise us to hear trade rumors involving Hall. However, if there is any thought of moving Hall for any other reason (i.e., “character” issues, “winning culture”), then a few things need to be considered.

To move Hall, the Oilers would need a player that would take over the minutes from Hall AND produce at that clip. Unless a player coming back is someone that can crack the top 10 in points-per-60 at even strength, you’d be nuts suggesting Hall be moved. Benoit Pouliot has been a fantastic addition, but he would not be able to match any of Hall’s point totals. This roster is weak enough as it is, so moving away a legitimate NHL player, at a very cap friendly salary, is completely absurd.

I read a couple comments on Twitter questioning Hall’s ability to stay healthy. First of all, this is professional hockey. Crazy shit can happen in a split second when you’re cruising around the ice on sharp blades and taking regular contact. And we knew before the Oilers drafted Hall what kind of player he was going to be: hard skating, drives to the net, a bit wreckless, but effective at carrying the play in the right direction. If playing a little on the edge is what will keep Hall productive, then we have to live with it.

Final Thoughts

I will say that my perception of Hall changed this season, not because of his performance, but because of the emergence of RNH. Going into the season, I saw Hall as the face of the franchise; someone that would be captain in the next few years. Now, I still see Hall as a vital part of the club, but not nearly the same captain/franchise material as RNH. This might be a reason why others see Hall as expendable. Just a thought.

Also, the Edmonton Journal needs to stop with their ridiculous polls. It’s bad enough that a recent one found that people would trade Hall, but then they had to mention Hall’s twitter account when they tweeted their findings, just to make sure he knew how fans felt about him. Classy.

Being a top player, Hall will always have misinformation about him being published and spread. It’s always important to question the content, who is saying it, and the timing, Really, as long as the Oilers keep losing, the rumours will continue,..that’s just how it works. And let’s not twist Hall’s placement on the second line with Lander and MIller as some sort of demotion. That to me is a sign of depth, done in large part by the signing and performance of Pouliot.

Recommended Links

RE 14-15 Taylor Hall: Midnight Rider – Lowetide

Appendix

Below are his stats using the Hockey Abstract’s Player Usage Charts.

Oilers 2010-2011

Oilers 2011-2012

Oilers 2012-2013

Oilers 2013-2014

Advanced Stats Summary for Taylor Hall

Source: War on Ice

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

2014-15

Gm

 65 61 45 75 50
G 10 13 12 16 6
A 15 18 21 37 18

P

 25 31 33 53 24
TOI/Gm 14.8 14.4 14.5 15.2 15.9
PRODUCTIVITY

G/60

 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4

A/60

 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.4
P/60 1.6 2.1 3 2.8 1.8
Penalties Drawn (Diff) 21 6 10 8 -4

PDO

 99.5 100.6 100.7 100.7 100.4

PSh%

 6.8 9 10.2 9.6 6.4
ZSO% 51.2 56.7 54 56.6 55.9
ZSO%Rel 2.1 9.4 9.2 17.4 9.1
POSSESSION, CHANCES, SHOTS

Scoring Chances For %

 48.1 51.3 49.7 46.1 49.4

SCF% Rel

 5.5 5.4 7.8 1.6 6.2
Corsi For % 48.8 52.3 50.4 44.4 51.1
CF% Rel 4.7 6.5 8.6 0.4 4.2
Shots For % 47.1 51.1 51.8 45.9 48.1
SF% Rel 2.5 5.4 10 2.2 1
Goals For % 45.7 52.6 53.8 47.8 49.2
GF% Rel 1.7 9.7 10.5 8.8 13.7

.

Realistic Expectations

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment
Source: NHL.com

Source: NHL.com

It’s been a rough season for young Schultz. Learning one of the toughest positions while playing for a bad team in the best hockey league in the world was never going to be easy. And we’re seeing what happens when you put a good prospect in a terrible position to succeed.

The bottom line is that Schultz is a prospect. And he has had zero support for his growth and development in professional hockey. The Oilers have absolutely failed this player and need to re-assess how they handle their defensemen going forward. Giving Schultz the most minutes, and the most offensive zone starts has done nothing for his progress. We’re seeing the full array of deficiencies that prospects typically possess by watching Schultz every night. It didn’t help that he not only left the team that originally drafted him and was pursued by 29 other teams, creating a bit of a prima donna perception. The Norris trophy comparisons and the unrealistic expectations have vilified the player, when really, the management group should be getting grilled,

Jonathan WIllis summed it up very nicely last week on the Lowdown with Lowetide. In regards to fans turning on Schultz:

We’re (fans) reacting to comments that comes from the team. Because it’s the team is at the upper echelon here. When Craig MacTavish says something, it travels a lot farther than when 10 people on Twitter say it.

A lot of the reaction has really been incited by the team both in how they’ve used him and in the things they’ve said about him all down the line.

If they had something realistic like…’Schultz has a lot of good offensive abilities and we really like him as a second unit defenseman and a powerplay option’, I think you’d see a lot of the distaste for Schultz become really muted because that’s a reasonable assessment of the player. He can help. He can be a useful. We just haven’t seen him put in a position to succeed yet.

When assessing Shcultz, it’s reasonable to compare his progress to players like Paul Martin and Matt Carle, players who had similar stats as Schultz in college. And bear in mind, while other teams eased in their college standouts at a young age, the Oilers threw Schultz into the fire handing him the most minutes with very little support. A few comparisons were made to Steve Smith last week, which was absurd, but I decided to see who Smith had to mentor him at age 22, compared to who Schultz had.

Oilers 1985-86 Oilers 2012-13
First Name Age   First Name Age
Lee Fogolin 30 Nick Schultz 30
Randy Gregg 29 Corey Potter 29
Don Jackson 29 Ryan Whitney 29
Charlie Huddy 26 Mark Fistric 26
Kevin Lowe 26 Ladislav Smid 26
Paul Coffey 24 Theo Peckham 25
Steve Smith 22 Jeff Petry 25
Justin Schultz 22

It’s obvious why Schultz lead the defensemen in minutes at 22, since the rest of the unit was below average. You can also see here how New Jersey and San Jose developed Martin and Carle respectively in their first two seasons coming straight out of college. It’s mind-boggling that the Oilers didn’t do more to surround Schultz with the right group of defensemen to ensure that he (a) eased his way into the line-up and (b) really earned his spot with the NHL club.

It’s blatantly obvious that the Oilers need to enhance their defensive unit for next season. To not only take on the tougher minutes, but to shelter the prospects like Schultz until they’re ready to succeed.

Oilers sign Anton Lander

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment
Source: NHL.com

Source: NHL.com

Great signing by the Oilers today locking up centerman Anton Lander for another two years. Next year’s roster will have him, RNH and Gordon at center. That leaves room for one more centerman, but I’m hoping the Oil load up down the middle and shift one or two to wing. The signing of Lander means there’s a good chance that Leon Draisaitl (hopefully) starts in the AHL next season, which is ideal considering his age and potential. It also sets up a nice comparable to use when the team negotiates with Derek Roy. Roy has more experience, for sure, but I don’t think he has as much speed and skill as Lander.

Now I’ve been a fan of Lander’s since he was drafted by the Oilers in 2009. The stories about him coming out of Sweden were very encouraging, and we heard lots about his leadership potential. Copper and Blue is a fantastic source for this kind of stuff and they had a very fair assessment of Lander and what his potential might be in 2009. To me, he sounded like our next Horcoff: two way centre to play against tougher competition. Six years later, he’s starting to look like that type of NHL player. And he saves hockey teams in his free time.

It really was just a matter of time before Lander established himself as a legitimate NHL player. He had a good junior career and did well in the AHL, even being named team captain for OKC at that young of an age. His production at the AHL level (107 GP, 28 G, 49 A, 77 PTS) meant he should be able to transition into a versatile, third line center who could help on the powerplay and penalty kill. He won’t win you games, but he won’t lose you games either.

The reality was that Lander did not have legitimate linemates prior to this season and was often given tougher zone starts with those weak linemates [Copper and Blue]. Now a good team would either let a player like Lander develop in the minors first OR start him at wing before transitioning him to center OR shelter him from tough opposition. The Oilers did none of that and decided to throw him into a position they thought he would end up in sometime in his career: bottom six.

What irks me is the fact that the Oilers decided to hang on to young Leon at the start of the season, basically leaving one spot open for either Arcobello or Lander. Draisaitl was of course sent back to juniors a few weeks after Eakins was fired and only after his rights were traded out of Prince Albert, The timing was perfect for Lander as his coach from OKC was now in charge and Pouliot had found some nice chemistry with Eberle and RNH, pushing Hall down a line to pair up with Lander. A lot of credit should go to Nelson for helping Lander find his game in the AHL and the NHL. But we also have to keep in mind that there were a number of things that Oilers management did to stall and then facilitate Lander’s transition to the NHL.

Here’s hoping that Lander has a solid career in the NHL, and that the Oilers have learned a few things about how to develop a centerman,

Recommended Links

Anton Lander signs a two-year extension with the Edmonton Oilers and at a value price – Cult of Hockey

Can Todd Nelson Save Anton Lander – Lowetide

Edmonton Oilers Re-sign Anton Lander – OilersNation

Oilers Re-sign Anton Lander – The Oilers Rig

Pony

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Capone “Pony” Agnihotri
(August 26, 2006 – March 27, 2015)

Sad to announce the passing of my best friend Pony this past weekend. He was loved by many and will be dearly missed.

Pony was recently diagnosed with lymphoma, a type of skin cancer that is relatively common among dogs. His condition worsened over the past few weeks, and the medication he was on really slowed him down.

My brother and I got him when he was a year old. We were looking for a German pinscher, and were put into contact with someone through a breeder. The original owners could not take on the responsibility, so we were glad to welcome him into our family.

He really was an amazing dog, who absolutely loved being around people. The early days were challenging as we adjusted to life with such a high energy dog. He was very attached to me and my brother, always whining if one of us weren’t around. And the obedience classes…man, those were a train wreck. But none of that mattered. He was family. And we all loved every minute with him. When I moved out and adjusted to real/family life, he moved with me. During everything, planning a wedding, going to grad school, raising kids, he was there. He was great around the kids and would’ve done anything to protect them. My wife also had a couple of bichon shihtzu’s, so he always had company.

Now that he’s gone, it’s left a big hole in our hearts. He had a huge impact on anyone he came into contact with, and we all miss him. I’m thankful for having him in my life, and for the lessons I learnt from having him around. A few that come to mind:

When you want something bad enough, you’ll get it.  German pinschers were hunting dogs, so they have this tendency to track down whatever it is that gets their attention. Pony would hear a fly somewhere in the house, and obsess over catching it. He’d get so zoned in to the fly, he wouldn’t notice anything else. And believe it or not, he would catch the damn thing (and eat it of course). It was awesome.

Everyone is worth protecting. Pony was very defensive of me and my family. If anyone new came into the house, he would be a little on edge, but would calm down if the person was calm too. And if anyone laid a hand on someone that he was protecting, he would go after them, jumping and nipping. Sometimes he would be a real jerk, and help whoever might have been trying to push me around. Fun times. If you met him even once, he would have your back.

Appreciate every last bit of nature. Pony hated winter. Dreaded it. He was not a winter dog and dragged his feet if the weather was below -5. Summer time, however, you couldn’t get him inside. And when you finally did, he would find any bit of sun coming into the house and lay in it until you took him outside again. The most quirky thing he would do is sit on the deck and stare directly at the sun with the dumbest grin on his face.

We’ll miss you Pony.

Productivity of Players Under Eakins and Nelson

/ sunilagni / 10 Comments
Source: Winnipeg Free Press

Source: Winnipeg Free Press

In my last post, I focused on the longest losing streaks each coach has had behind the bench this year. The purpose was to find out why Nelson’s losing streak was somewhat dismissed, while Eakins losing streak received a far greater backlash. Eakins’ 11-game skid had some decent underlying numbers at 5-on-5, but had some sketchy goaltending and a weak powerplay and failed to have any positive results. Nelson just finished off a 7-game streak, where they were absolutely lights-out on the powerplay, but had some troubling underlying stats at 5-on-5. My guess is that the success of the powerplay, and the point production of the young guns like Eberle, RNH and Yakupov gave the perception that Nelson was doing a better job.

I received a comment that suggested that individual players have benefited from the coaching change and their production has been better under Nelson. At first glance, it appears to be true. Eberle and RNH in particular have been outstanding over the past few weeks, with a large chunk of their points coming on the powerplay. Make no mistake, Nelson has done very well with the man advantage, something he was known for at the AHL level, and deserves full credit for its success. My take, however, is that 5-on-5 play is much more important, so I decided to take a look at the productivity of players at even strength under the two different coaches.

Please note, I exclude the five games that MacTavish was behind the bench in all of my comparisons involving Nelson. I’ve included in the list below the players who played under both coaches. (Source: War on Ice)

Eakins Nelson
Name

Pos.

Games

 P60 CF% TOI/Gm Games P60 CF% TOI/Gm
Ryan.Nugent-Hopkins C 29 1.97 51.83 15.79 37 1.73 50.57 15.00
Nail.Yakupov LR 31 0.93 48.90 12.47 36 1.51 43.48 13.26
Taylor.Hall L 25 1.65 53.15 16.04 14 2.31 50.38 14.86
Jordan.Eberle R 30 1.82 53.97 15.41 37 2.24 50.29 15.23
Benoit.Pouliot L 20 2.19 51.47 10.95 29 1.44 51.23 12.96
Boyd.Gordon C 27 1.11 46.68 10.02 37 0.63 42.02 10.33
Luke.Gazdic L 10 0.00 45.37 7.03 19 1.33 46.30 7.13
Matt.Hendricks LR 27 0.68 47.54 9.80 35 0.87 43.63 11.80
Leon.Draisaitl CL 31 0.88 52.76 11.05 2 5.73 56.76 10.47
Tyler.Pitlick RC 7 0.68 51.54 12.57 2 0.00 30.43 10.70
Iiro.Pakarinen RL 5 1.65 50.00 7.25 12 0.00 47.17 10.79
David.Perron RL 31 1.73 52.01 13.43 2 2.49 57.14 12.07
Teddy.Purcell RL 31 1.23 54.70 12.56 37 0.85 46.23 13.37
Justin.Schultz D 30 0.92 50.99 17.32 37 0.44 50.58 18.59
Jeff.Petry D 30 0.33 53.00 17.97 24 0.74 43.09 16.93
Keith.Aulie D 12 0.00 51.60 12.59 10 0.45 36.86 13.28
Mark.Fayne D 31 0.53 49.49 14.52 37 0.22 44.19 15.05
Andrew.Ference D 28 0.24 48.45 18.04 37 0.94 41.98 15.46
Oscar.Klefbom D 10 0.33 53.52 18.34 37 0.97 50.91 18.40
Martin.Marincin D 12 0.34 51.29 14.56 20 0.00 49.00 16.07
Nikita.Nikitin D 22 0.53 50.57 15.46 15 0.27 45.83 14.83

Looking at the point production (points per 60), the two players that saw an increase of their 5-on-5 production under Nelson are Eberle and Yakupov. Hall’s numbers increase, but that may have been because he was banged up early in the season. What’s surprising is the decrease in productivity for players like RNH, Pouliot, Gordon, Purcell and even Schultz. What’s troubling is the decrease in the possession numbers (Corsi For %) across the board. We are seeing that the team does struggle with possession in all score situations (whether they’re trailing, leading or the game is tied) under Nelson, while Eakins had something figured out when it comes to 5-on-5 play.

And here are the players who were coached by one and not the other. Included are guys like Lander, Roy and Klinkhammer who have all done relatively well with Nelson behind the bench, but still struggle possession wise.

Eakins Nelson
Name

pos

 Gm P60 CF% TOI/Gm Gm P60 CF%

TOI/Gm
Anton.Lander C – – – – 28 1.19 48.29 10.82
Derek.Roy C – – – – 37 1.67 45.93 13.63
Ryan.Hamilton L – – – – 16 0.32 40.99 11.54
Rob.Klinkhammer L – – – – 32 0.48 46.22 11.67
Matt.Fraser LR – – – – 28 1.21 41.71 10.62
Drew.Miller RC – – – – 3 0.00 53.25 11.19
Jordan.Oesterle D – – – – 6 0.75 49.64 13.42
Will.Acton C 3 0.00 44.68 9.22 – – – –
Bogdan.Yakimov C 1 0.00 61.54 10.05 – – – –
Mark.Arcobello CR 31 0.89 49.86 13.10 – – – –
Steven.Pinizzotto R 13 1.20 43.51 7.68 – – – –
Jesse.Joensuu RL 20 0.63 45.93 9.57 – – – –
Brandon.Davidson D 3 0.00 42.86 10.52 – – – –
Darnell.Nurse D 2 0.00 56.36 15.21 – – – –
Brad.Hunt D 6 0.00 50.00 15.82 – – – –

What’s become apparent is that individuals are producing more points, but it’s due in large part to the successful powerplay. Stripping the powerplay away, however, gives us a better assessment on how the team is doing for the majority of the game. In this case, the production has increased for some and decreased for others. When it comes to possession, which is a key indicator of team success, the entire team is struggling mightily.

Both Eakins and Nelson are qualified NHL coaches, having found success at the AHL level, and will likely be employed in some capacity next season in the NHL. Nelson should definitely be considered for the OIlers head coaching position next season along with other experienced coaches available this summer. The problem is that the Oilers are struggling to assemble an NHL caliber roster, and until they do, it really won’t matter who the coach is next season.

Losing Streaks: Who Wore it Better?

/ sunilagni / 5 Comments
Source: Edmonton Journal

Source: Edmonton Journal

I think the general consensus is that the Oilers look much better now than they did with Eakins. Copper and Blue did put together a nice piece that dug into some of the underlying stats of both coaches to challenge this perception. The bottom line is that the Oilers were a better possession team with Eakins behind the bench, but were sunk by bad goaltending. The Oilers under Nelson have spent less time trailing in games and the powerplay has been very good. Both coaches, however, were not given well built rosters, with defense being a major problem.

What’s become apparent is that Nelson has received far less criticism for his recent 7-game losing streak compared to what Eakins received when the team went on that dreadful 11-game run. Anything over 5 games is cause for concern, but for whatever reason, Eakins and Nelson have been treated very differently. Now granted, the 11-game losing streak was longer and early in the season when expectations were higher, and sunk playoff hopes by December. And of course by February all is lost anyways, so maybe there’s not nearly as much pressure on Nelson to win (and maybe fans want to improve their chances of landing a higher pick in the entry draft). It’s also become quite obvious that those that cover the game as a profession as well as a large segment of fans didn’t like Eakins and have expressed how much better of a person Nelson is. We’ll save that topic for another day.

I thought it’d be interesting to dig into the two losing streaks to see if anything stands out and uncover why some may find Nelson’s losing streak more acceptable and even….encouraging. Quick tale of the tape:

Coach Losing Streak Started Ended
Dallas Eakins 0-7-4 Nov 11, 2014 Dec 3, 2014
Todd Nelson 0-5-2 Feb 28, 2015 Mar 13, 2015

Here’s a breakdown of the time spent (at even strength) trailing or leading and their possession stats in those situations during the losing streaks (Source: Puckon.net)

Eakins Nelson
Situation Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi
Down 2 26.7% 54.0% 23.7% 57.0%
Down 1 27.2% 48.0% 20.1% 53.8%
Tied 38.8% 49.5% 33.9% 41.1%
Up 1 7.3% 38.9% 20.8% 42.1%
Up 2 0.0% – 1.5% 20.0%

And here are some of the advanced stats (at even strength, all score situations) for each of the coaches longest losing streak. (Source: War on Ice)

Metric Eakins Nelson
PDO 96.3 94.3
Goals For % (differential) 37.5% (-10) 32.1% (-10)
Corsi For % 49.2% 46.2%
On ice shooting % 6.0% 5.4%
On ice save % 90.3% 89.0%
Offensive Zone Starts 44.8% 49.7%
Shots For % (differential) 49.2% (-8) 49.3% (-5)
Scoring Chances For % (differential) 50.5% (+4) 47.1% (-20)

And finally, the special teams. (Source: War on Ice)

Special Teams Eakins Nelson
Powerplay 12.1% 40.9%
PP Scoring Chances For % 82.7% 81.1%
Penalty Kill 82.1% 72.7%

So based on the stats alone, which losing streak would be more encouraging? Here are my takeaways:

  • Both losing streaks were awful and well deserved. Make no mistake, both coaches are qualified NHL coaches, having spent years at the AHL level and having success. But neither should be let off the hook for losing like this.
  • Eakins’ losing streak showed the club was still creating opportunities, but had a terrible time converting on their scoring chances.
  • During Nelson’s losing streak, the Oilers spent more time with a one goal lead than when Eakins was on his losing streak. Definitely an influence on fan perception.
  • Nelson’s powerplay was on fire during that 7-game skid converting on 40% of the opportunities. He was known for having a good powerplay at the AHL level, but I don’t think anyone can expect the powerplay to continue clicking at this level. My opinion on powerplays is that it’s completely useless unless the team is doing well at even strength. It’s a supplement to give teams an edge, but that means they have to be competitive for the other 95% of the game, which Nelson is still figuring out.
  • Nelson’s powerplay success during the losing streak also bloated some of the individual player stats. For example, during the 7-game losing streak, Eberle and RNH combined for 19 points, more than half of which were on the powerplay. Again, this sort of stuff changes how a team is perceived.

My guess is that a combination of a solid powerplay, combined with the emergence of fan favorite Nail Yakupov has created this perception that the team is better. It’s a valid assessment, but we can’t overlook the fact that the club is still built very poorly with weak defence and sub par goaltending. The overall perception of both coaches has also played a big part in how their losing streaks are perceived. Both coaches have different personalities and presented themselves very differently in public. The way Eakins was brought in (the abrupt firing of Krueger, the first press conference) was the complete opposite of the the low-key, easy going, entrance of Nelson. All of these things change our perception of coaches and how we interpret their losing streaks.

Just a side note: As for coaching, I think Todd Nelson should be considered for the head coaching position by the Oilers, but it has to be part of a thorough candidate search. AHL coaches like Nelson, as well as Eakins, are well qualified and can bring different tactics to a team. But the only way they can have success is if the roster is built to compete. It’s encouraging to see guys like Lander and Klefbom doing well. But the club will need a lot more growth across the entire roster to be even remotely competitive next year.