The Oilers powerplay has been trending upwards the past few weeks, and currently ranks 6th in the league with a 22.4% efficiency. Another way to look at the powerplay is by the number of goals the team has scored per 60 minutes, which currently has them second in the league, only behind the Columbus Blue Jackets, with 8.06. The league average for goals scored per 60 is 5.74, which the Oilers have been above for the most part thanks largely to a shooting percentage over 14% (4th best in the league). What’s also been encouraging is the fact that the number of unblocked shots (i.e., Fenwick) the club generates per 60 has steadily increased on the powerplay, a good predictor for future success, and is now ranked 11th in the league with 68.12. At one point the Oilers were ranked quite low league-wide, well below the league average of 66.5.

Related: Letestu to the Rescue (2016, November 18)

It’s really been the last 10 games for the Oilers, and the addition of Mark Letestu to the powerplay unit, that has driven the team’s success with the man advantage. Over the first 17 games, Letestu had played a total of 19 minutes on the powerplay, which ranked him near the bottom in terms of ice time among forwards. This was surprising considering that Letestu has historically had a positive impact on the team on the powerplay, as the Oilers typically generated more unblocked shot atttempts with him on the ice. This impact also showed up in his teammates performance, as players often had better on-ice shot generation rates with Letestu than without him. Please note that the graph below contains the shot metrics as of November 18, 2016.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

After reading Minnia’s article on Friday, I felt pretty good about the team. She made some great points about the team’s progress, the impact different players have had, and how great McDavid has been. Ya know things aren’t so bad, I thought. The Oilers are first in the Pacific division. They’re getting 51.9% of the total shot attempts at even-strength. They’re getting 51% of the total goals scored. The powerplay is in the top 5. The penalty kill is in the top 10.

Then I watched the game on Friday night. And the sunshine-and-lollipops feelings went away. Okay, who am I kidding. My cold, bitter heart that’s endured so much losing because of this team didn’t let those feelings sink in for too long. We need to face it: this team has problems.

1. Points are slipping away

After 30 games, the Oilers hold a record of 14-11-5. They sit first as of this writing, but could very well be out of the top three in their division by the end of the night. Their points percentage, the points divided by the total available points, is 0.550. To put this into perspective, a 0.550 points percentage was good enough for eighth place in the Western conference last season. Not only are the Oilers very mediocre up to this point, but so is their division, and pretty much the entire West. And the Oilers still haven’t been able to capitalize. They couldn’t beat the Coyotes this year. They couldn’t beat the Sabres. And they’ve consistently left points on the table against teams they should be competing against, like Minnesota, for a playoff spot.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Below is part of the Weekend Q&A my colleague Minnia and I put together over at The Copper & Blue.

Minnia: With McDavid being paired with so many different wingers, especially on the right side, who have you liked best so far?

Sunil: This guy is so incredible that it doesn’t even matter who his linemates are. Usually we look for which two or three players have chemistry and how they can work off of each other. With McDavid, you look at who needs to play with him to get going or which player’s potential you can maximize. At the start of the year, I would have pushed for Maroon to be McDavid’s left side instead of Lucic, just based on Maroon’s 16 games with Edmonton last season. And I would’ve wanted Eberle on the right side, as he had great chemistry with McDavid and has the speed and finish to produce on the top line with him. Today, I’d rather have Maroon playing on other lines, as he’s been a positive influence on others and has been able to generate goals with McDavid on the bench, something that remains an issue for the Oilers. As of today, I’d keep Lucic with McDavid as they’ve been productive together, and I’d add pretty much any of the depth right wingers to that line. It wouldn’t hurt to have Puljujaarvi there, since the Oilers have no idea what to do with him, or even Slepyshev who has the skillset to fill a complementary role. Whatever the Oilers do, they have to ensure that the other three lines behind McDavid are loaded up so they can start producing goals. This means they may have to have the more depth players on the first line with McDavid.

Minnia: It seems McLellan is quick to “punish” this season, whether it’s reducing ice time drastically for mistakes in-game (Klefbom, Larsson) or sitting players for extended periods of time (Pouliot)– do you like his approach in leaving very little room for mistakes, or would you appreciate some more leeway for players?

Sunil: I think it’s ridiculous how McLellan has been handling/punishing his roster to be honest. A coach is responsible for putting together optimal line combinations and defence pairings, and then properly deploying them to increase their odds of winning games. If a player is struggling within a game, it makes sense to give ice time to the players you’re trusting. But after the game, re-set, work with the player, and base your future decisions not just on one bad play, but a larger sample size. Klefbom is a prime example here. He’s done very well paired with Larsson this year, all areas of the ice, against the other team’s top lines. The duo have a 51.79% share of all of the shot attempts when they’re on the ice this season, which is great considering the competition they face (Source: Corisca Hockey). Their 345 minutes together is the most on the team, so why not stick with that? After a bad play last week, Klefbom still isn’t back with Larsson, who is now getting caved in when it comes to shots against paired with Russell.

Minnia: Taking a look at Bakersfield, who are some of the players on the cusp you’d like to see up on the Oilers in case of injury (#knockonwood)?

Sunil: I would love to see Jujhar Khaira with the Oilers at some point this season. He’s a good skater and showed last season in limited minutes that he can keep up with the more established players. In 2015/16, with Pouliot out, Khaira skated with RNH and Eberle for a total of 53 minutes at 5v5, and played the same level of competition that RNH is accustomed to. The trio had a 50% share of the shot attempts, which was great considering the rest of the team was below 48% for most of the season. Long term, he should be a depth centerman, but it wouldn’t hurt to continue breaking him in on the wing. This season in Bakersfield, he has 5 goals and 5 assists in 12 games and ranks second on the roster when it comes to points per game (0.83). He’s also one of the team leaders in shots per game (3.1).

Minnia: What do you make of the interesting trend that the Oilers seem to lose a lot of games when they win the Corsi battle, yet win a lot of games when they lose the Corsi battle?

Sunil: A lot of that has to do with score effects. Basically, when a team is trailing in a game, which the Oilers have done often recently, they increase their output of shots as they start taking more risks and might shorten their bench and get their top players out there to find offence. On the flip side, when a team is leading, they often slow down their offence, start playing a safer game, off-the-glass-and-out tactics in an attempts to stifle the shots against. At the end of the game where the Oilers lose, it might look like they were outshooting the other team, but that usually happened after they were trailing.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The Oilers were very fortunate to have won the draft lottery that landed them an elite player like Connor McDavid. In 23 games this season, the 19 year old has scored 29 points, with 20 of those points coming at even-strength. His 3.29 points per hour at 5v5 has him third in the league, behind Kucherov and Stamkos. He consistently drives offence in all three zones, as teammates do better with him than without him when it comes to individual and on-ice metrics.

Without a doubt, McDavid has been the key driver behind the Oilers success so far this season. The club is 12-9-2, securing 26 points, and sits in first place in the Pacific division. And their +9 goal differential (all situations) ranks them second in the western conference. Say what you will about the teams in the west and their struggles, but the Oilers have managed to take advantage and remain competitive.

A quick glance at the underlying numbers, and the Oilers appear to be an average-to-good NHL club. Below is their overall share of shot attempts, scoring chances, expected goals and goals at 5v5 this season. Included for each metric is their ranking in the league.

This is all very positive for the Oilers as the club has historically been below 50% for pretty much every shot and goal metric. The fact that they have close to a 52.0% share of the shot attempts is significant progress and indicates that they should be able to compete for a playoff spot this season. But if we look at how the Oilers do with McDavid on the ice and compare that to how the club does without him, things get a little interesting.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.