I’ll admit, my expectations were ridiculously low coming into the off-season. Yes, the team has cap space and are in a position to position themselves for long-term success. But knowing management’s track record when it comes to assessing the team, identifying talent and their overall approach to managing the salary cap, it’s been hard to get too excited about the possibilities.

Here’s what we know about Ken Holland and the Edmonton Oilers.

• He’s a conservative general manager that lacks the creativity and ruthlessness needed to manage a team salary cap in the modern era.
• He highly values veteran players.
• He’s risk-averse when it comes to young players.
• He has a tendency to reward players for past success rather than potential future success,
• He and his professional scouts have a poor track record when it comes to identifying and acquiring professional-level players.
• He doesn’t integrate analytics into his overall decision-making process.
• There is zero over-sight of his work, no review of past transactions and no desire to improve the overall decision-making process.

It’s these traits that have tempered my expectations of the Oilers and have so far led to the signings of Devon Shore, the mysterious release of Matej Blumel and now the trade for Duncan Keith. And while I do like the signing of Nugent-Hopkins to a long-term deal and some previous transactions like the Puljujärvi deal, Holland is more likely to be wrong than right when applying his approach and building this roster. The Oilers clearly don’t care to be progressive and find new ways to get ahead of their competition. And if they do somehow find some success, I’d expect it to be short-lived.

In regards to Duncan Keith, the Oilers have acquired someone that could very well be a productive player and bring those off-ice intangibles – but what are the chances he can be a $5.5 million player? Just look across the league – teams desperately need players who are on value deals and outperforming their contracts and that’s why the Oilers needed Chicago to retain some of Keith’s salary. Keep in mind too that there are four seasons left with McDavid and Draisailt on the roster. And for two of those seasons, the Oilers are committing over 10% of their cap to Keith and Kassian. (Source: CapFriendly)

Needless to say, the acquisition cost for Keith is far too high and really hampers the Oilers ability to address the other major holes on their roster. The Oilers are the ones taking on the most risk here yet come away from the deal with a larger hit to their cap and are using up a roster spot for a relatively unknown prospect who hasn’t shown a lot of progress. Plus they now have to protect Keith in the upcoming expansion draft. Chicago on the other hand gained some much needed cap-space, shed a contract for a stalled prospect, added a third-round (potentially second-round) draft pick and added a prospect who has been progressing well. Chicago came into the negotiation with zero leverage, absolutely none with their backs up against the wall, yet came away as the clear-cut winners. Just embarrassingly poor asset management by the Oilers, but quite aligned with Holland’s previous transactions.

Again though, we know who Holland was before he got to Edmonton. And we’ve seen through his transactions over the past two years what he’s all about. This is what the Edmonton Oilers wanted and they paid him a pretty hefty salary to apply his approach. And so far, they’re getting exactly what they paid for. So let’s not forget the role the owner is playing here and the role CEO Bob Nicholson is playing here. They can talk a big game about building a long-term winner, but until they figure out what it takes to compete in the modern era and are willing to be open to new ideas, they’ll just continue floundering in mediocrity.

It’s going to be hard to forget May 2021.

The Edmonton Oilers clinched a playoff spot in the first week, beating the Canucks. By the end of the second week, the season ended with McDavid hitting and surpassing 100 points. Playoffs kick off in the third week. Five days later their season is over.

The first round exit is a good reminder that the playoffs are a bit of a crapshoot. You never know when a goalie is going to get hot or which forward is going to start scoring goals in bunches. The best you can do is build a balanced roster with talent, pray that your key players stay healthy and hope you get some bounces. It’s a cruel tournament, the results of which often push managers down the wrong path with negative long-term implications. It’s critical that teams have a long-term strategy in place, have strong decision-making processes and are constantly evaluating their business operations. Because it’s going to be tested over and over again by playoff results. Just ask the Washington Capitals.

Five-on-five

The biggest reason the Oilers were out after four games was the Jets goaltending. Connor Hellebuyck was lights out, posting a save percentage of 95.0% in all situations. The Oilers controlled the flow-of-play at five-on-five, doing a great job generating chances, and posting better numbers than they did in the regular season. They were the better team, but it didn’t matter. They were outscored 6-9 at five-on-five play, and 8-14 in all situations.

Edmonton Oilers	5v5	Winnipeg Jets
56.37	Corsi For%	43.63
55.18	Fenwick For%	44.82
59.70	Expected Goals For%	40.30
6-9	GF-GA	9-6
40.00	Goals For%	60.00
4.52	Shooting%	7.50
92.50	Save%	95.48
0.970	PDO	1.030

Keep in mind too, the Oilers controlled the shot-shares in their regular season head-to-head matches against the Jets, posting a Corsi For% of 51.69% over their nine games and an Expected Goal Share% of 54.97%. And thanks to their own 104 PDO over those nine games, the Oilers had a Goal Share% of 62.25% against the Jets. That’s the randomness involved in hockey, making it difficult to predict which skaters and goalies are going to succeed and when.

The Oilers 4.52% team shooting percentage at even-strength (5v5) was well outside of the expected range. As we see below, there was only one point in the regular season in late February that they had a shooting percentage that low. Observers may recall a four-game stretch that included the infamous three-game series against the Leafs and a game against the Canucks preceding that where the Oilers scored only once at five-on-five. For context, I added the Oilers regular season shooting percentage (8.87%, in orange) to the graph below along with their playoff shooting percentage (4.52%, in grey).

On the flip side, the Jets 95.48% save percentage in the playoffs was high, but they did hit that mark a few times including late in the regular season. Their goaltending was sixth best in the league for a reason, while the Oilers ranked 20th.

Players

Below is a snapshot of how the forwards did in the playoffs at five-on-five, including their shot-differentials (shot attempts and expected goals), PDO, and sorted by their on-ice goal differential.

It’s pretty clear that the entire team struggled offensively, with only Kahun and Kassian posting on-ice shooting percentages above the team’s regular season levels (8.87%). The top line featuring McDavid and Draisaitl for the most part did the heavy lifting in terms of generating shots and chances, while the depth players, especially the more experienced professional-level players, posted negative shot differentials.

It’s unfortunate the team went away from having McDavid and Draisaitl on separate lines, as they probably would have done a better job controlling the pace of the games by spreading out their offence more. This regular season, the Oilers took on the necessary risk playing the duo together less than they have in the past, which I thought allowed for other skilled wingers to develop chemistry and have productive seasons playing with the star players. In 2018/19, McDavid and Draisaitl played 20.0% of the team’s total five-on-five time together. That dropped down to 16.0% last season (2019/20) and then down to 12.5% in the 2021 season. Some good progress was made into developing line combinations in the regular season and getting a better understanding of the options they have up front – and they still went back to the McDavid/Draissaitl tandem. On top of that, they relied more on the older and lesser-skilled players in the playoffs, indicating to me that the coach panicked a bit with line combinations and deployment strategies. If I’m the GM, I’d need to know if the coach is going to make this a regular thing next year because that would impact how the roster is going to be constructed this upcoming off-season.

Here’s how the Oilers defencemen performed at five-on-five.

Nurse and Barrie led the team in ice time and were often deployed with McDavid, as well as Draisaitl as the duo played regularly together. Kulikov had some poor results, but for the most part was alright with Larsson posting decent shot-share numbers. And I thought it was made clear once again that Tippett does rely on goal-data to make lineup decisions, as he went with Russell and Koekkoek above Kulikov, Jones and Bouchard for a must-win game. As much as we want to analyze some of the gaffes the defencemen made, I think I learned more about the coaching staff than I did about the players. And it’s pretty obvious that when in a pressure situation, Tippett goes with veterans and those that he knows. He’d much rather play conservatively, which I don’t think works for a rush-style team like the Oilers that has some nice talent on the blueline with more developing in the system.

Special teams

The Oilers powerplay didn’t get a lot of opportunities because of the NHL’s poor officiating standards. And when they did, they again could not solve Hellebuyck. During the 20 minutes of total powerplay time, the Oilers generated about the same rate of shots as they did in the regular season, which finished near the top of the league. But instead of converting on 17.45% of their shots like they did in the regular season, they converted on only 9.52% of their shots – for a grand total of two powerplay goals.

The Jets on the other hand scored three powerplay goals over 17 minutes of powerplay time, a goals-per-hour rate above 10.0 and closer to what the Oilers finished their regular season with. The Jets weren’t great at generating chances – the Oilers actually did a better job at preventing shots than they did in the regular season – but it was enough to solve Smith who wasn’t nearly as sharp shorthanded compared to his regular season play,

Thoughts

• Obviously a lot of decisions to make this off-season, and I get the sense that management is going to try to bring back most of their regular players like Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson and Smith.
• If Tippett is back to complete his contract, we should probably expect some of the skill players like Ennis, Jones and Kahun to be gone and potentially replaced by more experienced players. The problem is that the Oilers professional scouts have done a poor job at identifying/evaluating talent for a few seasons now, and I don’t see how it gets better without changes to their internal strategy and personnel.
• I think before the Oilers do anything, they really need to take a step back and figure out a better way to run their operations and make better decisions. The needs are clear – they need scoring wingers, they need players who produce without McDavid on the ice. Depending on Klefbom’s future and if Barrie is retained, they may need to find another offensive defenceman. Make a decision on Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson. And doing this with the Seattle expansion draft coming up. That’s a lot to navigate for someone like Holland who hasn’t exactly shown a lot of creativity when it comes to building a roster. In preparation of McDavid’s seventh season with the Oilers, I’m just hoping they add more to their front office. Better scouting. Better analysts. A willingness to use data as part of their decision making. Once they have that, and a better understanding of how to build a roster in 2021, I think they can have a lot more long-term, sustainable success. And really use this upcoming off-season to build a better team around McDavid.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Related:

• North division review – The SuperFan (2021, May 17)
• Previewing the Oilers vs Jets – The SuperFan (2021, May 19)

After reviewing the North division and analyzing how the Oilers did head-to-head against each Canadian team, I was curious to know how well the Oilers and Jets finished their regular seasons and what we could expect in their first round playoff series.

The Oilers results were obviously excellent, going 17-6-2 in their final 25 games for a 0.720 points percentage, while the Jets went 12-12-1. As we see in the table below, the Oilers success was largely driven by special teams in these final 25 games, as they posted a -5 goal differential at even-strength (5v5), a goal-share of only 47.47%. Note that the shot-share metrics (i.e., Corsi, Fenwick, Expected goals) have been score and venue adjusted.

Last 25 games, 5v5	Oilers	Jets
Points%	0.720	0.500
Corsi For%	48.13	49.46
Fenwick For%	47.37	49.29
xGoals For%	47.96	47.43
Goals For%	47.47	56.18
Shooting%	8.75	9.23
Save%	91.51	92.81
PDO	1.003	1.020

Thankfully the Oilers powerplay scored 21 goals, a rate of over 12.0 goals per hour over this final stretch, consistently generating shots and converting on their chances. And the penalty kill allowed only five goals, leading the league with a goals against rate of 2.90 per hour. Worth noting that the Oilers penalty kill gradually improved defensively, allowing league average rates of shots against over the final twenty five games, but still finished the year well above league average.

The Jets were a different story over their final twenty five games. They had excellent results at even-strength, posting a +11 goal differential (a 56.18% goal-share), and were closer to league average shot-share levels than the Oilers, gradually improving over the course of the year. They also had a little bump in their team shooting percentage – it’ll be interesting to see if they can carry some of that into the playoffs while missing some of their key players. The Jets goaltending was excellent all season at even-strength, and ended the year ranking as one of the best in the league – definitely expect that to be a major factor in the series.

Special teams is where the Jets broke-even to close the regular season. While they still scored 14 goals on the powerplay, a rate of 6.56 goals per hour that’s just under the league average rate, they allowed 13 on the penalty kill. Worth noting that the Oilers penalty kill will likely be tested as the Jets led the league in shots per hour on the powerplay over the final stretch of the season. The good news for Edmonton is that the Jets also allowed the third highest rate of shots against on their penalty kill. Not exactly where the Jets want to be against the Oilers powerplay, making it even more critical that they win the goal-share at even-strength and avoid bad penalties. The good news for the Jets is that they had the ninth lowest rate of penalties against in the regular season. Against the Oilers this year, they drew 28 penalties and were called for 26 – their best results against North division teams.

One other thing I wanted to see was how the players on each team did in terms of on-ice shot and goal differentials at even-strength (5v5) over the final twenty five games. Below are all of the Oilers skaters, sorted by their on-ice goal differential, with McDavid leading the way in all categories. We already know how poor the Oilers depth has been without McDavid on the ice, a problem that persisted all season. But it’s also a little concerning that Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins and Yamamoto – key top six players – each only had a +1 on-ice goal differential, and were posting lower than average shot differentials.

Defensively, I’d be a little concerned about the top pairing of Nurse and Barrie. While they both posted positive on-ice goal differentials, they ended the year with negative shot-differentials. Considering they spent so much time with McDavid, I would have expected their numbers to be a little better. Nice to see Kulikov posting good numbers just in case things fall apart for Nurse and Barrie. In ten games since being acquired by Edmonton, Kulikov has played 147 minutes with Larsson at even-strength, posting a Corsi For% of 57.28% and a goal-share of 65.95%. Bear should be getting regular minutes as well considering his solid on-ice shot-share numbers. And I can sort of understand why the coaching staff might be reluctant to play Jones or Russell and instead going with Koekkoek. Both players posted negative shot-differentials and goal-differentials to end the season.

Looking at the Jets skaters, there’s a few players including Scheifele and some of the third and fourth line options who were riding percentages to close the year. As noted above, goaltending was the driver and I think its safe to assume it’ll continue to be strong. Missing Ehlers and Dubois to start the series is going to hurt the Jets considering the team did so well controlling the flow of play with them on the ice. Dubois especially, if he gets healthy and plays, might see a market correction to his on-ice results considering he posted one of the lowest PDO’s on the team. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of match-ups happen and who gets assigned the McDavid minutes.

Should be an entertaining series and a lot closer than I think people are expecting. How much of the regular season carries over is anyone’s guess, but it will probably come down to how well the Oilers can play without McDavid on the ice at even-strength, the goaltending matchup between Hellebuyck and Smith and if the Jets can avoid getting burned on the powerplay. Looking forward to it!

Data: Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com