Much better results from the Edmonton Oilers this month as they moved from tenth in the west to seventh currently sitting with a points percentage of 0.583. They finished November with a record of 8-4-1, and ranked fourth in the league in terms of points percentage (0.654) only behind Minnesota, Toronto and Washington. What’s interesting is that their goal-differential during this recent stretch has only been even (28 goals for, 28 goals against). Considering their strong shot-share numbers, it probably should have been better. Could have also used some better goaltending. But all that matters for now are the points being accumulated, and the rise in the standings.

Below are the current even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

We’re starting to see teams fall into their places, just based on what their shot share numbers have been like. For example, Edmonton and Colorado had good shot-share numbers last month and ranked poorly. But things have turned around for both clubs in the last month, and they’ve gained ground in the west. And we’ve seen teams like Calgary and Anaheim who were getting outshot regularly but getting good results last month, start to crash down back to earth.

We’re also starting to see which teams have issues to address in net, especially those with championship aspirations. Edmonton, Colorado, Vegas and Vancouver may need to keep an eye on the goalie market, and it’ll be interesting to see which of them can turn things around.

Edmonton and Colorado also have their even-strength scoring issues to address, as both rank near the bottom the league when it comes to finishing chances. Colorado is also relying heavily on their special teams to bail their even-strength play out.

Also do wonder if we’ll see Winnipeg and especially Vegas fall in the standings, as both clubs have had issues controlling the flow of play, and rely heavily either on their goaltending (Winnipeg) or ability to finish chances (Vegas).

And I do think we’ll see Utah start to climb up. They’re posting solid shot-share numbers and have one of the best even-strength goal-shares in the league. The issue for them is that their special teams have been terrible. Their powerplay is generating very few chances and goals. And their penalty kill allows one of the highest rates of shots against, and is relying heavily on their goaltending to allow an average rate of goals against. If they can figure out special teams, they could be very good.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

• Points-percentage (Point%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
• Corsi for percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., corsi for/(corsi for + corsi against). This is used as a proxy for possession and is the best at predicting a team’steam’s future share of goals (GF%). (Source: Hockey Great Tapes – Draglikepull)
• Fenwick for percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick for/(Fenwick for + aenwick against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill.
• Expected goals for percentage (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot.
• Goals for percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals for/(Goals for + goals against).
• Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
• Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against)).