Couple thoughts ahead of a pressure-filled 2024/25 regular season

It’s been a little weird seeing how much hype there is around the Edmonton Oilers heading into the season. They’re obviously in that championship contender category, coming off a deep playoff run this past spring. And they have the high-end talent that will help drive results.

I’m just seeing a few too many question marks around the roster, so I’m not as confident as the general public about the Oilers this season.

For one, I’m not sold on the goaltending as Stuart Skinner has had a lot of ups and downs over the course of his career. I view him as an average goalie, not someone who can steal wins like some of the other elite level goalies. And don’t get me wrong, average goaltending can be good enough. I just don’t think the Oilers did enough to mitigate the risk of his play falling off, like what’s happened to him early on in regular seasons. Pickard as a backup is fine, but can you trust him for an extended period in case Skinner needs time away? I’m not completely sold.

The other issue is around the third and fourth lines, which looks significantly slower than last season. I don’t like the idea of Henrique centering Janmark and Brown. And then a fourth line with two players over 37 years old. Hoping Podkolzin can make an impact, and you have Philp and Savoie as options down the road. But for now, that bottom six is a perfect target for opposing teams. I think you need some more speed and skill to be effective in those minutes. Keep in mind too – guys like McLeod, Holloway and Foegele posted some of the best on-ice shot-share numbers for Edmonton last season, and were a big reason why the bottom six was improving. It’ll be interesting to see if the team’s shot-share numbers at even-strength take a hit, especially when McDavid isn’t on the ice.

The Oilers top six is arguably one of the best in the league. But there’s a few guys that are at risk of regression. Hyman for one, likely won’t reach 50 goals again based on his career shooting percentage levels. Nugent-Hopkins was pretty quiet in the playoffs and has had periods throughout the last few seasons where his on-ice shot share numbers were lower than expected. I’m also tempering my expectations for Arvidsson whose skillset is very valuable when he’s healthy. Coming off a shortened season, you don’t know how quickly a player can get back up to speed – similar to what happened to Connor Brown last year. Draisaitl is also someone who I’ve always felt needs a centerman on his line to be effective, so I don’t know how well he’ll work with J. Skinner and Arvidsson. Skinner, while very productive, is also going to frustrate some with his defensive play. Expecting some line-tinkering early on in the year.

As for the blue line, I’m not quite sure what to expect. The team is taking a risk relying on Emberson, Stecher, Dermott and J. Brown to be regulars. Emberson has the most potential but lacks experience. Stecher, Dermott and J. Brown have a history of being depth guys at best, so it’s hard to imagine them taking on larger roles over an extended period for Edmonton. It’ll also be interesting to see which defenceman take on penalty kill minutes. Assumed Emberson and J. Brown were going to replace Ceci’s and Desharnais’ minutes. But now with Brown sent down, it might have to be Dermott.

It’s going to be a fascinating season for the Edmonton Oilers who have a lot of pressure on them to win a championship. And if things go sideways early on, it’ll be critical that the coaching staff, and potentially management, act quickly.

One thought on “Couple thoughts ahead of a pressure-filled 2024/25 regular season

  1. Pingback: Tracking the Western conference – As of October 31, 2024 | The SuperFan

Leave a comment