It’s been a poor start for the Edmonton Oilers in their championship series against the Florida Panthers. After the first two games, they’ve been outscored 7-1 in all situations, with their only goal being scored by Matias Ekholm at four-on-four in game two. At even-strength (5v5), the Panthers have outscored the Oilers 4-0 so far, and have a powerplay goal on top of that. Their other two goals have been on an empty net.
The Oilers inability to score at even-strength (5v5) is definitely surprising considering the talent they have on the roster and the success they’ve had during the regular season. They finished first in the league in shots per hour with 32.87 and third in goals per hour with 2.90. Unfortunately, this level of production hasn’t carried over to the post-season, which isn’t surprising. We know teams ramp up their defensive play and intensity in the playoffs, and the Oilers are 20 games into a long playoff run. At this point, the Oilers are generating 25.92 shot per hour and have scored at a rate of 2.36 goals per hour. Against Florida, the Oilers are so far generating 25.44 shots per hour and zero goals.
| Edmonton Oilers (5v5) | Shots per hour | Goals per hour | Shooting% |
| vs Los Angeles | 26.08 | 2.92 | 11.21 |
| vs Vancouver | 27.39 | 2.86 | 10.46 |
| vs Dallas | 23.88 | 2.02 | 8.46 |
Above is a quick snapshot of how the Oilers performed in the previous three rounds of the playoffs. What stands out is that as the Oilers have progressed deeper into the playoffs, their rate of shots per hour and their team shooting percentage has gradually declined. Against Los Angeles, they posted a shooting percentage of 11.21 percent, well above their regular season shooting percentage of 8.81 percent. But against Dallas, it slipped to 8.46 percent, and was part of the reason why they were outscored by Dallas at even-strength.
Breaking out the Oilers team’s shooting percentage over rolling five-games, we see that heading into the series against Florida, they were definitely in a downward trend. It still doesn’t explain not being able to score a single even-strength (5v5) goal. But it does indicate that the Oilers are hitting a wall, especially when McDavid isn’t on the ice.
| Edmonton Oilers (5v5) |
Shooting% with McDavid |
Shooting% without McDavid |
| vs Los Angeles | 14.63 | 9.09 |
| vs Vancouver | 12.70 | 8.89 |
| vs Dallas | 11.48 | 5.80 |
The Oilers performance and results without their captain at 5v5 this post-season has flown under the radar a bit as the power play and penalty kill has been bailing the team out. In the first three rounds of the playoffs, the Oilers have been outscored 18-26 without McDavid, a goal-share of only 40.91 percent. This is largely driven by the fact that their Corsi For percentage has been 45.81 percent and their Expected Goals for percentage has been 44.82 percent. Combine this with their poor shooting percentage, especially in the last round against Dallas, and it’s no surprise that McDavid is being relied on to carry the load again. Goal-scoring from depth players is critical in the post-season, and really needed to be addressed at the trade deadline when there were options available.
One last thought, this one on the Oilers powerplay. The Panthers have done a really nice job limiting the Oilers shots and scoring chances. In the two games so far, the Oilers have only generated seven shots on goal in 13 powerplay minutes (31.19 shots per hour), which is wild considering they generated 79.66 shots per hour in the previous three rounds and 62.33 per hour in the regular season. When the Oilers have had trouble scoring with the man-advantage in the past, it was easy to stay optimistic because they’d still be generating lots of shots and scoring chances. So you knew it was a matter of time before the results came around. That doesn’t appear to be the case any more. Which makes solving their even-strength issues even more critical.
Data: Natural Stat Trick
ICYMI:
The SuperFan 