One of the issues that’s come up for the Edmonton Oilers this off-season is their lack of cap space and inability to make significant improvements to the roster. Misreading the market, poor decision-making and plenty of overpays will do that. And it’s a difficult cycle to break unless you have some creativity and courage in your front office.

Now plenty of forwards and defencemen and a goalie are on heavy, long-term deals. But that shouldn’t be a reason for the club to play things conservatively this off-season. There’s plenty of room for improvement, and management needs to find ways to add talent and depth, and gain any competitive advantages – regardless of how small the margins or gains might be.

One concern I have heading into next season is the top six, which no doubt has some excellent pieces. The issue is that it’s getting older, with Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evander Kane all over 30 years old now and struggling to produce in the recent playoffs. And while all three bring specific skillsets to the team, their production is more likely to drop-off as they age. When that happens is anyone’s guess, and is based on a number of factors. But for one player in particular, there are indicators that it could happen sooner rather than later.

Looking at how Evander Kane has performed relative to his team’s overall performance at even-strength, we see a declining trend with his team’s gradually doing better without him than with him. If you’re getting paid and deployed like a top six forward, and spending significant time with two of the top players in the world, the team should be seeing a bump in productivity with you on the ice. But that hasn’t been the case for Kane. Last regular season, the Edmonton Oilers posted a Corsi For percentage of 50.93% at even-strength with Kane on the ice, a drop from the 52.55% Corsi For percentage without him on the ice. The team’s shared of expected goals, which factors in shot quality, was an even bigger drop off, as indicated by the lines in blue. Without Kane on the ice, the Oilers posted a 54.70% share of the expected goals (Source: Natural Stat Trick). With him on the ice, that share dropped to 48.08%, with the Oilers getting out-chanced more often. Kane’s overall decline appears to have started in his first full season with San Jose (2018/19) when he was 27 (right after when offensive players tend to drop off), and it’s hard to imagine things getting better considering he’ll be 32 years old before the next season begins.

Whether it’s his performance, or the injuries he’s sustained, the Oilers coaching staff has made adjustments to how Kane has been deployed. Just over 25% of his total ice time at even-strength last season was against elite-level competition, which is the second lowest proportion of ice time against this group in his career. For context, in his first two full seasons in San Jose, Kane spent around 35% of his ice time against elite-level competition (Source: Puck IQ).

Kane is definitely a player to watch this upcoming season. The hope is he can bounce back and be a solid supplementary player in the top six. But it’s becoming more and more likely that he’ll lose another step, possibly paving the way for one of the younger prospects in the system – someone like Dylan Holloway, or maybe even Xavier Bourgault, to make the jump and play more of a feature role in the top six. It’ll be critical for the coaching staff to closely monitor the performance levels of Kane and the top six, and make swift adjustments when necessary.

This issue also has to be on the general manager’s radar. Kane’s value remains high across the league because of his experience and past results. This might be a good time for Ken Holland to find some much-needed creativity and courage and start creating a trade market for the player, maximizing a potential return. The team’s cap situation is a mess right now thanks to him, with some good young players like Bouchard and McLeod needing long-term contracts, and more youngsters on the way. Clearing cap space is going to be important for long-term sustainability, something Ken Holland has struggled with pretty much his whole career. So it’ll be interesting to see how he navigates this one.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Puck IQ