Tied at two-games apiece, a quick glance at the Edmonton Oilers performance and results in their first round series against the Los Angeles Kings and what their strengths and weaknesses have been.

Starting with even-strength (5v5), the Oilers have done everything they can to increase their odds of out-scoring the Kings and winning games. They’ve controlled the flow of play for the majority of the series, spending more time with the puck as reflected by their 58% Corsi For percentage, and getting a higher proportion of the total shots and scoring chances. The Oilers are currently generating the highest rate of shots on goal in the playoffs with 38 per hour, while keeping the Kings under 28 shots per hour (ranking 11th among the sixteen playoff teams). For context, the Oilers and Kings generated around 32 shots per hour in the last twenty-five games of the regular season, which had them in the top ten league-wide.

Using Natural Stat Trick’s methods of calculating expected goals (which uses shot type, shot location and historical scoring data to determine the probability of a shot attempt becoming a goal), the Oilers – in theory – should have scored twelve even-strength goals in the first four games. But because the Kings goaltending has been solid, ranking second in the league with a save percentage of 94.94%, they’ve only mustered seven goals. Had the Oilers converted 9.09% of their shots against the Kings into goals like they did over the full regular season, instead of the 5.06% shooting percentage they’re sitting at right now, they’d easily have scored twelve, and I highly doubt three of the four games would have gone into overtime.

Worth noting too that the Oilers goaltending at even-strength has been good enough this playoff series. posting a 93% save percentage so far. Again using the expected goals method from Natural Stat Trick, the Kings should have scored nine goals based on the scoring chances they’ve had – but they’ve only scored seven. Part of that is missing some of their better scorers like Kevin Fiala for the first three games of their series. But the Oilers goaltending has been decent as well, ranking 6th in the post-season, just behind Boston.

As for special teams, the Oilers powerplay has continued to amaze, generating the highest rate of of shots and scoring six goals in the four games – a rate of 25 goals per hour which is almost double what they posted in the regular season. Worth noting that despite having the puck for the majority of the series, the Oilers have somehow drawn the second lowest rate of penalties in the post-season (3.19). The Kings who took the thirteenth highest rate of penalties in the regular season have apparently changed their ways – amazing, really.

The Oilers have really needed their powerplay to be incredible as their penalty kill has struggled against the Kings, largely because the goaltending has been poor when shorthanded. The Kings had one of the best powerplays in the league this regular season, and the Oilers skaters are doing everything they can to limit their chances. Edmonton’s penalty kill has so far only allowed 21 shots shorthanded, a rate of 46.7 shots per hour, which is the sixth lowest among playoff teams and well below the rate the Oilers were at in the regular season (58.31). Unfortunately, the goaltending is currently posting a 76.19% save percentage, which ranks 13th among playoff teams. If the Oilers struggle to score at even-strength, the powerplay is going to need to bail them out. But if the penalty kill is going to bleed goals like this, it won’t matter. The goaltending needs to be better.

Back to even-strength. It’s really important to emphasize how well the Oilers are performing with and without their star players. In 81 minutes so far without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice – or about 38% of the team’s total time – the Oilers have posted a 57% Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage. As we’ll see below, players like McLeod, Foegele and Ryan are really taking advantage of the Kings third and fourth lines. The problem of course is that the Oilers depth players haven’t scored a goal (0 GF, 3 GA) despite having the puck more often and getting a greater share of the shots and scoring chances. Unless Draisaitl, who has been on the ice for every Oilers goal scored this series, is getting double-shifted with the depth players, there isn’t much happening on the score sheet.

Below is a breakdown of each player’s on-ice numbers at even-strength in the first four games, sorted by time on ice. I’ve split the table into forwards and defencemen and added a simple heat map to show how each player compares relative to their teammates.

The concerns I would have for the Oilers is their defensive play, and some of the breakdowns when things get chaotic in their own zone. We’ve seen the Kings sustain pressure in the Oilers zone a few times now largely because of the mistakes the Oilers were making. Really have to wonder if this group can keep it together for an entire post-season, and if they can cut-down their recurring mistakes especially by some of the defencemen. There really aren’t any other options for the coaching staff, as this is the group of seven defencemen we’re going to be seeing the rest of the way.

There should also be a little concern with the Oilers depth players. The Oilers posted great numbers without McDavid or Draisaitl in the regular season, but they’ve gone completely dry in this first round. We know the top six group will find ways to score, especially if Draisaitl and McDavid remain healthy. The problem is that a lot of the depth guys posted career individual shooting percentages in the regular season, so this might be when we see the regression. And their decline isn’t completely surprising. Over the full course of the season, the Oilers shooting percentage without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice was 8.34%. But in the last twenty five games, it had dropped to around 7.01%.  This is hockey, so things can turnaround with a lucky bounce or two. But the coaching staff may need to tinker with the line combinations to get something out of the depth (i.e., non top-six) players.

Also worth keeping an eye on the goaltending situation and if the coaching staff has some doubts with Skinner’s play and begins to develop more confidence with Campbell – especially after his performance in game four. Skinner has had a solid season, but his numbers did take a slight dip near the end of the season. He’s always been right around league-average, but with the workload he’s had in his rookie season it’s not totally surprising to see him struggle. The workload of course was driven by the fact that the coaching staff didn’t have as much confidence in Campbell, especially as the season winded down and the Oilers were pushing for a higher playoff seed.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com

Last check-in on the western conference before the 2023 playoffs begin next week.

The Oilers finished second in the Pacific division, going 18-2-1 since my last check-in at the end of February. They’re easily one of the best teams in the league, and should be considered one of the favorites coming out of the west this post-season.

Couple reasons for optimism.

The Oilers have consistently posted some of the best shot-share numbers in the league, ranking highly when it comes to the rate of generating shots and scoring chances as well as preventing them. I think that’s something that tends to get overlooked – the Oilers have over the course of the full season been a pretty solid defensive team, doing everything they can to help their goaltending.

The Oilers actual results have been very good. They finished with the second highest number of regulation wins in the league with 45 – a good indicator that they’ve been winning games decisively and not leaving things to chance in overtime and shootout. Three other teams in the west rank amongst the top ten teams with the highest number of regulation wins – Dallas ranks 6th with 39, Vegas ranks 7th with 38 and Los Angeles ranks 10th with 37.

The Oilers have also been able to control the flow of play really well, as reflected by their shot-share numbers. And they’ve actually outscored opponents without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice at even-strength. In 1,831 minutes without one of both of them on the ice, or 46% of the team’s total time, the Oilers posted a Corsi For percentage and an Expected Goals For percentage of 53%. And they posted a +14 goal differential (74 goals for, 60 against).

The one area that could be an issue is goaltending. It’s been a great story this year with Stuart Skinner, and how he had to take on a starting role with Campbell struggling. But the team’s 91.34% save percentage finished 16th in the league and 8th in the western conference. Among the eight teams from the west that have qualified for the playoffs, their save percentage is only better than Los Angeles’ and Seattle’s. It could be good enough for the playoffs, but I don’t expect the Oilers goaltending to win the team any games if games get tighter.

Quick glance into how each team played in their last twenty five games (since around mid-February). Helps get a sense of what each team’s strengths and weaknesses are and how it could translate into their post-season results.

The team that stands out is Vegas, as it appears their possession numbers have slipped significantly and are relying on their goaltending to bail them out. They might be okay, considering how much of an impact goaltending has on playoff results. Plus they do also have Mark Stone coming back into the lineup. Winnipeg does have their own x-factor in net with Connor Hellebuyck, so it should be a good first-round match up.

Seattle is another team that might have some issues in the playoffs, especially with their goaltending which hasn’t performed well recently. They still have a good balance of forwards and can outscore you with different lines, as reflected by their 56% goal-share this season (second best in the league). But they lack that high-end talent to match some of the more offensive teams in the west.

The rest of the top teams in the western conference really turned it up in this last stretch of the season. Suspect, based on the table above, that some of the weaker teams knew they were out by the all-star break, and maybe didn’t dress their optimal rosters to increase their odds of landing Connor Bedard.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com