With the OIlers in a two game losing streak, and the looming regression hovering over them, I thought it would be worth looking into the current line combinations up front and to see if any changes are needed. Outside of the top line of Lucic, McDavid and Eberle, there hasn’t been consistent production, especially from forwards Maroon, Draisaitl and Puljujaarvi. I’m giving Nugent-Hopkins, Pouliot and Kassian a bit of a pass as they’ve been taking on the opposing team’s best players, and are doing a nice job playing on both sides of the puck. But I’ve still included them in this analysis to see how they compare to the other line combinations.
After 10 games, the Oilers have played four combinations with regularity at even-strength. Below is each line’s adjusted possession numbers, their expected goals (xGF%), which is a weighted shot metric, as well as their actual share of goals at even-strength. I’ve also included the difference between the lines actual share of goals (GF%) and their expected share of goals (xGF%) to see how far they might be from their expected levels. I’ve also included each line’s PDO, which has been used to measure their overall luck as both shooting and save percentage can be somewhat unpredictable. The data and the methodology behind expected goals is from Corsica Hockey.
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.