Finally into the homestretch, and I’m honestly just looking forward to the off-season. Hopefully Chiarelli and the management team have had enough time “assessing” the roster and will have more cap space to make some moves. We knew going into the season that making any trades would be from a position of weakness as the other 29 teams knew the Oilers contract count and salary cap issues. The trade deadline should see some contracts moved, with Purcell and Schultz definitely on the way out. I suspect that Hendricks and a couple more pieces from the bottom six (hopefully Korpse) draw some interest.

Here’s my radio spot from Monday with Lowetide on TSN 1260.

We discussed a number of things, including some hidden gems in the league and which defencemen I thought the Oilers should look into. I mentioned Matt Irwin, who was shipped to the AHL by the Bruins very early in the year. A while back, I dug into his numbers from the past few seasons as a Shark, and found that Irwin is definitely a volume shooter who has success getting pucks on the net. This is something that’s been lacking for the Oilers and will be critical for the team to have success under McLellan. Irwin is a left shot, which the Oilers are loaded with, but I think he’s worth a cheap contract, maybe even on a two-way agreement.

I also mentioned Yannick Weber, who, for whatever reason, is buried in Utica by the Canucks. I’ve always liked his game, and his underlying numbers indicate to me that he’s an NHL player. Again, he’ll be undervalued, so it doesn’t hurt to bring him in and have him compete for a spot. He’s only 27, has a right handed shot and has played 265 games at the NHL level.

I’m really doubting that the Oilers make drastic changes at the deadline. Other than shipping their expiring contracts out to get picks and prospects, I can’t imagine them doing much else. Dealing significant pieces (like say RNH or Nurse) should happen around the draft and into the summer instead of at the deadline when player values are completely skewed. It’s a market for teams that are making a run for the playoffs, so I wouldn’t expect the Oilers to get real value from trading a significant asset.

I really think the Leafs are looking like a sharp team right now moving their low value assets and expiring contracts for picks. While it’s true that the chances of draft picks from later rounds reduces, teams that load up on picks like the Leafs are simply increasing their odds of finding a solid pick. These picks can always be packaged with other picks to acquire players, similar to what the Oilers did to acquire Talbot last summer. The Leafs definitely understand this and have made some very, very smart moves over the past 12 months. I’d be curious to know how they would have handled the Oilers if they were in Chiarelli’s shoes last summer.

Something else that’s been somewhat annoying is hearing/reading suggestions that the Oilers need to move RNH or need to move Nurse, without getting into who would come back or replace the players minutes and assignments. I think fans (myself included) tend to look at the team from the inside out and often over value our own players before considering what a fair return would be. So yes, trade RNH if you must for a defenceman (who exactly, I haven’t been made aware) but then you have to consider who would take on the best competition and produce at a top six level. The only names that come to mind are Frans Nielsen (UFA 2016, 31 years old), Darren Helm (UFA 2016, 29 years old) and maaaaybe Lars Eller if he shakes lose from Montreal. I haven’t dug much further into this, but I haven’t come across any other potential replacements.

As for Nurse, I think you have to consider moving him if you get back a top two defenceman like Hamonic (who is also on an amazing contract, and is just entering his prime) or Tyson Barrie (see Alan Hull’s excellent article here). But if you see Nurse as a number one guy a few years down the road, you’ll probably hate any suggestions to trade the prospect. All I ask is if you want to toss around names of players that should be moved, I highly recommend you look into how their minutes will be replaced. It’s harder than you think, but it makes for a much more engaging discussion.

For the numbers people, G Money of Oilers Nerd Alert has published WOWY data for his Dangerous Fenwick stat (LINK). For more information on this metric that factors in shot distance, check out this background piece.

Also came across this from Zac Urback, who looked into shot location by defence pairing for the Oilers. How to read this: above the red line is shot generation, and below the red line is shot suppression. Green is inside shots/60, grey is outside shots/60. I definitely like these kinds of graphs as a quick check really to make sure what I’m seeing (or think I’m seeing) can be validated with data. And yes, we can confirm, again, that Klefbom and Davidson are good defencemen.

One last thing. I recently wrote an article on why the Oilers should consider bringing back David Perron, who will be a free agent this summer. I’ll admit that he was my favorite player when he was here, mainly because he had a good mix of skill and the ability to irritate opponents. I think the Oilers could really use someone like Perron, who similar to Pouliot, can play around the crease area and not always skate past it. Most of the feedback I’ve received has been more about him being a bad person off the ice, and how he has burned bridges with the Oilers and now the Penguins. I honestly have no idea, nor do I care, what his off ice issues are, since it’s all gossip. What I did find was that he’s had stretches where he struggled, but for the most part has been a positive impact on his team’s success wherever he goes. He’s lighting it up in Anaheim right now, so his value might go higher, especially if they go on a playoff run. But if the price is right, and a roster spot opens up, I really hope the Oilers make an offer to him.

Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Full audio clip is here.

Couple Thoughts:

Davidson

It’s been great to see young Brandon Davidson flourish this season as a depth defencemen. He’s one of the few defensive prospects that has come through the OIlers organization and has been able to contribute right away. I thought it was ironic that on the same day that Todd McLellan referred to Davidson as a “steady-Eddie” player, Steady Steve was featured on the Oilers Twitter page as part of the Farewell Rexall Place event.

The great thing about Davidson is that he’s been, for the most part, been playing on the bottom pair with the occasional appearance in the top four. He’s also been effective in all situations and has for the most part had a positive influence on the team’s overall performance (thanks to Zac for the idea).

Davidson is under team control for another few years, so there really should be no rush to throw him into any sort of trade. Hopefully the Oilers can shore up their defence this summer and ensure that Davidson plays in a spot that he can succeed in going forward.

Lander and the bottom six

I’ve been pretty disappointed in not only Lander’s performance this season, but also how the coaching staff has handled the player in relation to the bottom six. I never had high expectations for Lander, mainly because the bulk of his points scored last season were on the powerplay. But I did think he would take another step in his career and establish himself as a strong depth player who could move up in the lineup as needed.

It’s become pretty obvious that the Oilers are ready to move on from Lander. He hasn’t dressed for a game since the all-star game, being healthy scratched now for seven straight games. Even after the club got destroyed in back-to-back games in Montreal and Long Island, the coaching staff saw no need to insert Lander into the roster to shake things up. And recently when McLellan really shook things up, Hall was being centered by Letestu at one point, even though Hall had success last season being centered by Lander.

Really, the Oilers should be moving Hendricks back to his natural spot on wing, and have Lander back at center. Lander has not been productive this season, but you can’t tell me Letestu and Korpikoski have been any better. Lander has also had success this season playing with Pakarinen and Yakupov, so it’d make way more sense going with that on the 3rd/4th line. Letestu should be paired with Kassian (which I thought worked well) with Hendricks as the winger there. Korpikoski should ideally be the odd man out, but I don’t see management allowing that to happen.

Loading up on Centers

I’d really like to see the OIlers load up at center this off season to have depth in the position. Next season should feature Draisaitl, RNH and McDavid as pivots, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Draisaitl play wing with RNH in the middle. This would be similar to how McLellan ran Thornton and Pavelski at times in San Jose, which was highly effective.

The main issue for the Oilers is the lack of stability and production from the bottom six. I’m convinced that moving Korpikoski would solve a lot of the problems, especially when it comes to possession and scoring chances. But the team should still be adding depth players that can contribute, play tough minutes, kill penalties and fill-in WHEN injuries happen. It’s early, but the players that interest me are Kyle Chipchura, Darren Helm and Mike Santorelli (who actually played mostly wing the last few seasons, but can play center). These should not be costly signings, and should be movable contracts if a situation arises.

I’d definitely keep Letestu, but have him shift to wing and move to center if needed. I don’t think he’s been effective at all and would like to see someone else get a shot at the 4C slot. Lander I’d obviously keep, but I don’t think he’s in the long term plans.

Joined Lowetide on Monday morning to discuss the Oilers, including the back-to-back losses, the holes on defence and what to expect in terms of transactions. Full audio clip is below, starting around the 7:30 mark.

Couple notes:

• I really didn’t expect the Oilers to do well in Montreal. Even though the Habs have been terrible for months, they’ve still posted some decent possession numbers (52.7% CF adjusted since December 1st), but have been completely sunk by terrible goaltending (90.7%, last in the league) with Price out of the lineup. They were bound to have a decent game eventually, which they did against an Oiler team that looked gassed in the first period.
• I didn’t think the Oilers stood a chance against the Islanders, especially with Nilsson in net. He’s been dreadful over his last few starts now, with all that talk about head-trajectory training all but forgotten. I was hoping the Oilers could keep it close and show some signs of a bounce back, but I honestly could not find a single positive from the game. Next up are the Devils, who have been pretty bad possession wise, but have one of the best team save percentages in the league. This one is going to be boring and probably won’t end well for the Oilers.

@sunilagni @Lowetide Could you answer why schultz played after his performance in Montreal? But Nurse didn’t? Nurse was better on Sat right?

— Brandon Parsons (@Bparsonsproject) February 8, 2016

• Without a doubt, Schultz was the worst player on the ice in Montreal. Quick summary of the defence core’s time-on-ice and the shot attempts for and against (Source: Natural Stat Trick)

• Schultz was caught in the wrong position so many times in Montreal and made some glaring mistakes in his own end. I actually thought McLellan would replace Schultz with Clendening for the game in Brooklyn. Instead, it was Darnell Nurse who sat out the next game. Nurse was actually okay that game, but he’s on the left side, making him an easy candidate to swap out for Reinhart to play against his old teammates. Here’s how the defence core did in Brooklyn:

• My only keepers for defence next season are Sekera, Klefbom and Davidson on the left side, and Fayne on the right. I wouldn’t declare Davidson as a top 4 guy just yet. He’s done well as a bottom pairing defencemen, and I think he could do well with someone like Gryba next season. Nurse and Reinhart need time to develop, with the former likely getting more NHL time than the latter. If the Oilers want these two prospects to reach their potential, they have got to bring in some experienced players to round out the defence core. This would allow both Nurse and Reinhart to develop at the appropriate level.
• Quick rundown of where the Oilers rank in terms of possession, scoring chances and goals at even-strength at this point. Based on these we can see why the club is destined for a bottom five finish, and why we need to temper expectations even with young McDavid back in the lineup.
  • Corsi For% (Score adjusted) – 47.9% (22nd)
  • Scoring Chances For% – 48.3% (24th)
  • Goals For% – 43.2% (29th)
  • Team Save% – 91.2% (30th)
  • Team Shooting% – 7.4% (14th)

As always, let me know your thoughts.