Realistic Expectations

Source: NHL.com

Source: NHL.com

It’s been a rough season for young Schultz. Learning one of the toughest positions while playing for a bad team in the best hockey league in the world was never going to be easy. And we’re seeing what happens when you put a good prospect in a terrible position to succeed.

The bottom line is that Schultz is a prospect. And he has had zero support for his growth and development in professional hockey. The Oilers have absolutely failed this player and need to re-assess how they handle their defensemen going forward. Giving Schultz the most minutes, and the most offensive zone starts has done nothing for his progress. We’re seeing the full array of deficiencies that prospects typically possess by watching Schultz every night. It didn’t help that he not only left the team that originally drafted him and was pursued by 29 other teams, creating a bit of a prima donna perception. The Norris trophy comparisons and the unrealistic expectations have vilified the player, when really, the management group should be getting grilled,

Jonathan WIllis summed it up very nicely last week on the Lowdown with Lowetide. In regards to fans turning on Schultz:

We’re (fans) reacting to comments that comes from the team. Because it’s the team is at the upper echelon here. When Craig MacTavish says something, it travels a lot farther than when 10 people on Twitter say it.

A lot of the reaction has really been incited by the team both in how they’ve used him and in the things they’ve said about him all down the line.

If they had something realistic like…’Schultz has a lot of good offensive abilities and we really like him as a second unit defenseman and a powerplay option’, I think you’d see a lot of the distaste for Schultz become really muted because that’s a reasonable assessment of the player. He can help. He can be a useful. We just haven’t seen him put in a position to succeed yet.

When assessing Shcultz, it’s reasonable to compare his progress to players like Paul Martin and Matt Carle, players who had similar stats as Schultz in college. And bear in mind, while other teams eased in their college standouts at a young age, the Oilers threw Schultz into the fire handing him the most minutes with very little support. A few comparisons were made to Steve Smith last week, which was absurd, but I decided to see who Smith had to mentor him at age 22, compared to who Schultz had.

Oilers 1985-86 Oilers 2012-13
First Name Age   First Name Age
Lee Fogolin 30 Nick Schultz 30
Randy Gregg 29 Corey Potter 29
Don Jackson 29 Ryan Whitney 29
Charlie Huddy 26 Mark Fistric 26
Kevin Lowe 26 Ladislav Smid 26
Paul Coffey 24 Theo Peckham 25
Steve Smith 22 Jeff Petry 25
Justin Schultz 22

It’s obvious why Schultz lead the defensemen in minutes at 22, since the rest of the unit was below average. You can also see here how New Jersey and San Jose developed Martin and Carle respectively in their first two seasons coming straight out of college. It’s mind-boggling that the Oilers didn’t do more to surround Schultz with the right group of defensemen to ensure that he (a) eased his way into the line-up and (b) really earned his spot with the NHL club.

It’s blatantly obvious that the Oilers need to enhance their defensive unit for next season. To not only take on the tougher minutes, but to shelter the prospects like Schultz until they’re ready to succeed.

Oilers sign Anton Lander

Source: NHL.com

Source: NHL.com

Great signing by the Oilers today locking up centerman Anton Lander for another two years. Next year’s roster will have him, RNH and Gordon at center. That leaves room for one more centerman, but I’m hoping the Oil load up down the middle and shift one or two to wing. The signing of Lander means there’s a good chance that Leon Draisaitl (hopefully) starts in the AHL next season, which is ideal considering his age and potential. It also sets up a nice comparable to use when the team negotiates with Derek Roy. Roy has more experience, for sure, but I don’t think he has as much speed and skill as Lander.

Now I’ve been a fan of Lander’s since he was drafted by the Oilers in 2009. The stories about him coming out of Sweden were very encouraging, and we heard lots about his leadership potential. Copper and Blue is a fantastic source for this kind of stuff and they had a very fair assessment of Lander and what his potential might be in 2009. To me, he sounded like our next Horcoff: two way centre to play against tougher competition. Six years later, he’s starting to look like that type of NHL player. And he saves hockey teams in his free time.

It really was just a matter of time before Lander established himself as a legitimate NHL player. He had a good junior career and did well in the AHL, even being named team captain for OKC at that young of an age. His production at the AHL level (107 GP, 28 G, 49 A, 77 PTS) meant he should be able to transition into a versatile, third line center who could help on the powerplay and penalty kill. He won’t win you games, but he won’t lose you games either.

The reality was that Lander did not have legitimate linemates prior to this season and was often given tougher zone starts with those weak linemates [Copper and Blue]. Now a good team would either let a player like Lander develop in the minors first OR start him at wing before transitioning him to center OR shelter him from tough opposition. The Oilers did none of that and decided to throw him into a position they thought he would end up in sometime in his career: bottom six.

What irks me is the fact that the Oilers decided to hang on to young Leon at the start of the season, basically leaving one spot open for either Arcobello or Lander. Draisaitl was of course sent back to juniors a few weeks after Eakins was fired and only after his rights were traded out of Prince Albert, The timing was perfect for Lander as his coach from OKC was now in charge and Pouliot had found some nice chemistry with Eberle and RNH, pushing Hall down a line to pair up with Lander. A lot of credit should go to Nelson for helping Lander find his game in the AHL and the NHL. But we also have to keep in mind that there were a number of things that Oilers management did to stall and then facilitate Lander’s transition to the NHL.

Here’s hoping that Lander has a solid career in the NHL, and that the Oilers have learned a few things about how to develop a centerman,

Recommended Links

Anton Lander signs a two-year extension with the Edmonton Oilers and at a value price – Cult of Hockey

Can Todd Nelson Save Anton Lander – Lowetide

Edmonton Oilers Re-sign Anton Lander – OilersNation

Oilers Re-sign Anton Lander – The Oilers Rig